2017 Browns Mock Draft Thread

[SixPACK]

I am okay with the proposed trade to get to #5 in this

Agree.

if they are in love with Mitch.........ell, then I am not mad with what they gave up. As many on this board have said, if you are in love with a QB and see him as a potential franchise QB, you go get him.

Not giving up the #33 or our 3rd rounder, I am happy with that. I am not upset.

This is a deep draft, but we gotta remember we also have our 1st next year, and THREE 2nd's. One being the Texans, and how good are they gonna be...Phili's may be near the end.

 

[sportscoach]

It is also possible to trade down and trade up in this draft and still end up with the same amount of draft picks. So we could go from 12 to 19 area and acquire an additional 2nd round pick, then trade up from 33 into the 20s using our additional picks. So would you guys be opposed to having like for example, trading down to 20, would be 12 plus a 5th round for Picks 20, 82 plus another pick. Then you can flip by the numbers trade 33 and 82 for 24, thus allowing us to have 3 first round picks and a second round and not really losing any picks lol

 

[FiveThous]

I'm so pumped for this draft. The #12 pick just intrigues the hell out of me.


edit: Just realized this was the wrong thread,

 

[sportscoach]

I'm so pumped for this draft. The #12 pick just intrigues the hell out of me.

Especially since we have picks 33 and 52 as well so we have flexibility to go up and down in this draft and we can have two top 5 picks or we could have 6+ picks between day one and two

 

[Matches]

Looking at mock drafts there's a group of exactly 12 players and then a bit of a drop off where the consensus sort of falls apart. This theoretically puts the Browns at #12 in a good position to get the last of the top talents or extract value from someone who wants to get in there. The 12 players themselves can be split into tiers:

Garrett
---
Thomas
Adams
Lattimore
Fournette
Hooker
Allen
---
Trubisky
Barnett
Foster
Howard
Williams

A betting man would put Garrett #1 and the next tier of guys as going #2 through #7 in some order. The wildcard is the Jets at 6 meaning one of those guys could fall, but I'd consider it highly unlikely that they'd fall all the way to 12, but I'd hold on to it until I knew it was out of the question.

After that I'd hold keep it unless it came down to either Barnett or Mike Williams. Then I start taking calls to move down. If any of the others are there at 12, just take 'em.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Watson at #4 comes out of left field here from Collinsworth, I think it's much more likely the Jags draft defense or Fournette then fill a developmental quarterback later in the draft. Trade up to 5 for Trubisky could happen, wouldn't surprise me if it happened, but I'm not lobbying for it to happen. The cost would likely be two high end starters at other positions to move up seven spots.

 

[CBBI]

I am okay with the proposed trade to get to #5 in this. I'm a little upset the pick isn't Hooker, but they are going to address QB at some point. I think.

This trade idea is interesting to me.

If you go off the old school Jimmy Johnson value chart, it's a slight win value wise for Cleveland. The Browns give up 1200 (12) + 380 (52) + 78 (108) = 1658 for the 5th overall pick which is worth 1700.

However...

If you go off the Harvard Sport Analysis Chart - which I have this crazy suspicion the Browns at least use a variation of because it was invented in 2011 by Kevin Meers who is currently the Browns Director of Research and Strategy - then it's a massive net loss for the Browns.

Browns give up 283.6 (12) + 144.2 (52) + 89.5 (108) for 357.9 (5). A net loss of 159.4 points.

To put it another way...

Under the Jimmy Johnson chart, it should cost the equivalent of the 40th overall pick to move up from 12 to 5.

Under the Harvard chart, the same deal (12 to 5) should cost the equivalent of the 131st overall pick.

 

[Soda]

This trade idea is interesting to me.

If you go off the old school Jimmy Johnson value chart, it's a slight win value wise for Cleveland. The Browns give up 1200 (12) + 380 (52) + 78 (108) = 1658 for the 5th overall pick which is worth 1700.

However...

If you go off the Harvard Sport Analysis Chart - which I have this crazy suspicion the Browns at least use a variation of because it was invented in 2011 by Kevin Meers who is currently the Browns Director of Research and Strategy - then it's a massive net loss for the Browns.

Browns give up 283.6 (12) + 144.2 (52) + 89.5 (108) for 357.9 (5). A net loss of 159.4 points.

To put it another way...

Under the Jimmy Johnson chart, it should cost the equivalent of the 40th overall pick to move up from 12 to 5.

Under the Harvard chart, the same deal (12 to 5) should cost the equivalent of the 131st overall pick.

True, but I don't think many teams are going to take that Harvard value chart & just agree. If someone goes and asks a team to bypass 7 premium players for what amounts to be a late 4th, the team is going to hang-up immediately. I'd think the Browns' analytics driven front-office would balk at much more than what you stated; however, if they want a deal done, they'll likely have to meet somewhere between.

 

[CBBI]

True, but I don't think many teams are going to take that Harvard value chart & just agree. If someone goes and asks a team to bypass 7 premium players for what amounts to be a late 4th, the team is going to hang-up immediately. I'd think the Browns' analytics driven front-office would balk at much more than what you stated; however, if they want a deal done, they'll likely have to meet somewhere between.

I think the more likely scenario is that the Browns don't make a trade up unless they feel it's worth it on the Harvard chart.

This regime seems to do things their own way. Meeting in the middle doesn't seem like something they're too keen on doing.

 

[dark2332]

True, but I don't think many teams are going to take that Harvard value chart & just agree. If someone goes and asks a team to bypass 7 premium players for what amounts to be a late 4th, the team is going to hang-up immediately. I'd think the Browns' analytics driven front-office would balk at much more than what you stated; however, if they want a deal done, they'll likely have to meet somewhere between.

I would consider a value between the two charts a win (if you're trying to move up). Down, I want the Johnson chart all day.

 

[Soda]

I mean, in reality it's going to be difficult to convince any team to abandon their perceived value of a pick. That's what leads me (us?) to believe the Browns are just not likely to move-up.

If we look at the Eagles-Browns trade from last year, the Harvard chart says the Browns fleeced the Eagles. I'd guess a team in the top-10 would want to see a fleece via that chart as well from the Browns, which is not how those guys seem to roll.

 

[Soda]

Kiper's 3-round came out..

Round 1 (1): Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M
Round 1 (12): Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina
Round 2 (33): Jourdan Lewis, CB, Michigan
Round 2 (52): Josh Jones, S, NC State
Round 3 (65): Kareem Hunt, RB, Toledo - He reads RCF

 

[sportscoach]

Kiper's 3-round came out..

Round 1 (1): Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M
Round 1 (12): Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina
Round 2 (33): Jourdan Lewis, CB, Michigan
Round 2 (52): Josh Jones, S, NC State
Round 3 (65): Kareem Hunt, RB, Toledo - He reads RCF

I mean we are the most knowledgeable forums around so why wouldn't he? Lol

That draft does make sense, but then again I don't want a QB round one personally.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Can't be mad at Trubisky at 12. Ideal really. I just don't like the idea of giving up an extra pick in the top 108 to get him in a trade up.

 

[SixPACK]

Kiper's 3-round came out..

Round 1 (1): Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M
Round 1 (12): Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina
Round 2 (33): Jourdan Lewis, CB, Michigan
Round 2 (52): Josh Jones, S, NC State
Round 3 (65): Kareem Hunt, RB, Toledo - He reads RCF

Don't mind it. if they value Trubisky that high.

I have been talking up Hunt for years now, would be thrilled to get him.

Barnwell did his. Would not mind this, at all (same thing said about Trubisky, however):

Browns picks:

• 1-31: Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M
• 1-12: Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina
• 2-33: Budda Baker, S, Washington
• 2-52: Teez Tabor, CB, Florida