2017 Browns Off Season Thread

[The Human Q-Tip]

If we are going to refrain from picking players based on recent draft misses, I guess we won't be drafting a QB, RB, C, DB, LB, DE in the first two rounds either.

I think the biggest lesson to come from Richardson is to use caution when drafting players from stacked teams. It's one reason why Garrett is such a good prospect -- he was easily the best defensive player on their front seven, so it wasn't like he benefitted from other players getting attention.

In that regard, LSU had two main ball carriers this year. Their stats:

STAT: Att. Yds. YPC TD's Long

RB A: 129 843 6.53 8 78(t)

RB B: 183 1387 7.6 15 96(t)

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/stats/_/id/99/year/2015


Fournette was RB A. And the year before, when RB B was a freshman, he only got 51 carries to Fournette's 300, but still averaged 8.5 ypc v. Fournette's 6.5.

I'm not saying that to pimp RB A. I'm just saying that seeing how well someone else ran behind that exact same line makes me a bit skeptical of claims that Fournette is the next AP/once in a decade level talent. And its relevant because Richardson was essentially indistinguishable statistically from Mark Ingram, his predecessor at Alabama.

 

[MoFlo]

If we are going to refrain from picking players based on recent draft misses, I guess we won't be drafting a QB, RB, C, DB, LB, DE in the first two rounds either.

You're missing the point.

It's not about refraining from picking players based on misses.

It's that we've heard the "comparable to Adrian Peterson" thing before and it's not a reason to rush up and trade up for the guy.

If people feel he's talented enough to warrant it, that's fine. Others may disagree, but that's fine. However, him being compared to Adrian Peterson is not a good reason to make that trade up for him.

 

[AZ_]

I think the biggest lesson to come from Richardson is to use caution when drafting players from stacked teams. It's one reason why Garrett is such a good prospect -- he was easily the best defensive player on their front seven, so it wasn't like he benefitted from other players getting attention.

In that regard, LSU had two main ball carriers this year. Their stats:

STAT: Att. Yds. YPC TD's Long

RB A: 129 843 6.53 8 78(t)

RB B: 183 1387 7.6 15 96(t)

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/stats/_/id/99/year/2015


Fournette was RB A. And the year before, when RB B was a freshman, he only got 51 carries to Fournette's 300, but still averaged 8.5 ypc v. Fournette's 6.5.

I'm not saying that to pimp RB A. I'm just saying that seeing how well someone else ran behind that exact same line makes me a bit skeptical of claims that Fournette is the next AP/once in a decade level talent. And its relevant because Richardson was essentially indistinguishable statistically from Mark Ingram, his predecessor at Alabama.

In fairness, Guice is going to be a Top 15 pick when it's all said and done.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

In fairness, Guice is going to be a Top 15 pick when it's all said and done.

No argument there. But doesn't that prove the point that Fournette isn't a "once in a decade" level talent? Heck, I'm not sure he's even going to be as good as Elliot, and he may not be as good as Guice either. Plus, there is the issue of that is a damn good offensive line.

I'm not saying he's not worthy of a first round pick. I'm just trying to point out that those who advocate trading up for him based on a belief that he is that "once in a decade" level back are likely proceeding on a false premise. And I don't think it's likely that all three of those guys really are the next AP.

 

[Lee]

No argument there. But doesn't that prove the point that Fournette isn't a "once in a decade" level talent? Heck, I'm not sure he's even going to be as good as Elliot, and he may not be as good as Guice either. Plus, there is the issue of that is a damn good offensive line.

I'm not saying he's not worthy of a first round pick. I'm just trying to point out that those who advocate trading up for him based on a belief that he is that "once in a decade" level back are likely proceeding on a false premise. And I don't think it's likely that all three of those guys really are the next AP.

I agree, seems to be a once every 3 years or so back. Now Elliot was last year, but might not be another back as good as those 2 for 3 or 4 years or so.

Personally I would never trade up for a RB unless you think you can compete. They have the shortest careers by far of any position and even if you hit a home run on them, byt he time we fix the QB position and that qb is good, over half Fournette's career is gone, not good.

Personally I dont want a RB yet for that reason unless a top one falls into our lap, so no spending extra picks for rb for me.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I agree, seems to be a once every 3 years or so back. Now Elliot was last year, but might not be another back as good as those 2 for 3 or 4 years or so.

Right. Fournette not even being the best back on his own team (at least statistically, and by a good margin in terms of YPC) really should give anyone pause about trading up from 12.

Personally I would never trade up for a RB unless you think you can compete. They have the shortest careers by far of any position and even if you hit a home run on them, byt he time we fix the QB position and that qb is good, over half Fournette's career is gone, not good.

Personally I dont want a RB yet for that reason unless a top one falls into our lap, so no spending extra picks for rb for me.

Agree completely.

 

[Kbiz]

You're missing the point.

It's not about refraining from picking players based on misses.

It's that we've heard the "comparable to Adrian Peterson" thing before and it's not a reason to rush up and trade up for the guy.

If people feel he's talented enough to warrant it, that's fine. Others may disagree, but that's fine. However, him being compared to Adrian Peterson is not a good reason to make that trade up for him.

We are speaking the same language. Comparing pre-rookies to any NFL star is stupid. You simply can't make that projection when basing it on production at the college level and frankly, we've heard the "physically gifted" rhetoric about Richardson, Gilbert, and Mingo in past years. Three obvious busts.

I'm not saying Fournette is the next Peterson. I've just been less than enthused with Crowell on the field. Good teams have guys that can get you the tough yardage in the red zone and i think Fournette will excel at that as it plays to his strengths as a runner.

 

[Jack Brickman]

I hear you but I just can't believe that Crow is worth a 2nd round pick. I feel like that's just absolutely off. It's not even a rumor to me. More like a rumour.

I mean, he was a pretty solid RB last year behind a godawful offensive line. You could easily see a team looking at that and discussing whether it's better to trade for a guy you already know can play in the NFL or take a chance on a guy in the draft who could be the next Trent Richardson.

 

[AZ_]

No argument there. But doesn't that prove the point that Fournette isn't a "once in a decade" level talent? Heck, I'm not sure he's even going to be as good as Elliot, and he may not be as good as Guice either. Plus, there is the issue of that is a damn good offensive line.

I'm not saying he's not worthy of a first round pick. I'm just trying to point out that those who advocate trading up for him based on a belief that he is that "once in a decade" level back are likely proceeding on a false premise. And I don't think it's likely that all three of those guys really are the next AP.

Not necessarily.

It's just an illustration that statistics aren't what makes Fournette the talent he is.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Not necessarily.

It's just an illustration that statistics aren't what makes Fournette the talent he is.

I didn't say they were. But if he truly was a once in a decade talent, he shouldn't be getting outgained by another back on his own team two years in a row. Or at the very minimum, there should be a good explanation for why that happened. AP averaged about 1.0 more ypc than did the Sooners as a whole, and was by far the best back on his team.

 

[AZ_]

I didn't say they were. But if he truly was a once in a decade talent, he shouldn't be getting outgained by another back on his own team two years in a row. AP averaged about 1.0 more ypc than did the Sooners as a whole.

You also need to consider Fournette was playing through an injury this season.

But again, I honestly can't bring myself to care about his YPC or total as compared to Guice.

Fournette is a monster who played in a far stronger defensive conference against more elite competition.

His other worldly athleticism for his size and natural tackle breaking ability are what separates him.

 

[Otsego Mar]

You also need to consider Fournette was playing through an injury this season.

But again, I honestly can't bring myself to care about his YPC or total as compared to Guice.

Fournette is a monster who played in a far stronger defensive conference against more elite competition.

His other worldly athleticism for his size and natural tackle breaking ability are what separates him.

So if by some miracle he falls to 12, you pick him is what you're saying.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

But again, I honestly can't bring myself to care about his YPC or total as compared to Guice.
Fournette is a monster who played in a far stronger defensive conference against more elite competition.

Well, Guice played against the exact same guys Fournette did, behind the exact same line, and gained more yards. Not sure why that isn't worthy of at least some interest if the issue is "best back in a decade".

That's not to say I wouldn't take him if he slid to 12 -- I would. But the question was trading up for him from there, and I don't think you do that unless you're talking AP level domination/potential longevity, and on a team that is relatively close.

 

[FiveThous]

What's the consensus look like for the Browns landing an OJ Howard, Corey Davis, Fournette type player at 12? It seems like Fournette is doable but not sure about the others.

 

[Soda]

So if by some miracle he falls to 12, you pick him is what you're saying.

Browns would probably be on the phone immediately seeing who'd make the move-up and for what.