This was supposed to be easy for the
Cleveland Indians. All 35 of ESPN's baseball analysts picked them to win the AL Central. Their preseason odds to win the division were 87.5 percent on FanGraphs, the highest of any team in baseball. They looked like a powerhouse team in a weak division, with basically every key player back from last year's 94-win team except
Mike Napoli, and he had been replaced by a superior player in
Edwin Encarnacion.
Much like their competitors in the 2016 World Series, however, the Indians have discovered the path to the playoffs includes other teams that aren't going to make it so easy. A six-game winning streak from June 15 to June 19 -- including a four-game sweep in Minnesota -- moved the Indians into first place, and it was rational to believe they wouldn't look back.
Then the Twins came into Cleveland over the weekend, allowed two runs in three games, and swept the Indians to leapfrog back into first. Monday's incredible comeback against the Rangers, combined with Minnesota's loss in Boston, pushed the Indians back into first by a half-game, but the Twins and Royals still are sitting right there.
So why hasn't it been so easy? A couple of things to consider:
The rotation has struggled at times.
Corey Kluber missed a few turns through the rotation but has otherwise been terrific, as has
Carlos Carrasco (Monday's meltdown notwithstanding). It's been a different story for
Trevor Bauer,
Josh Tomlin and
Danny Salazar. Look at that trio compared to last season:
2016: 501.1 IP, 487 H, 72 HR, 153 BB, 447 SO, 4.20 ERA
2017: 217.2 IP, 253 H, 39 HR, 68 BB, 231 SO, 5.71 ERA
Collectively, the hits allowed are up, the home runs are up and the ERA is way up. What's weird is that the strikeouts also are up, but that hasn't translated to more success. In Bauer's case, he's increased his strikeout rate from 20.7 percent to 26.6 percent, but even so, his batting average allowed has increased from .248 to .270, with more home runs, as well. Now, that means his BABIP is up, but that's not always just bad luck. Bauer's well-hit average also has increased, from .146 to .186, so he's allowing more hard contact in between all the strikeouts.
(The defensive metrics show the Indians as a similar defensive team as last season, so that doesn't appear to be a reason for the BABIP problems; they were plus-17 defensive runs saved in 2016 and are sitting at plus-7 this season.)
The good news here is the Indians rotation leads the majors in strikeout rate after ranking fifth last season, and ranks sixth in lowest walk rate. A key might be how the staff adjusts as balls continue leaving parks at record rates. Progressive Field doesn't have a reputation as a hitter's park, but it's become one of the friendliest home run stadiums in the majors. The team has allowed 52 home runs at home in 325 innings compared to 34 on the road in 336 innings, a reason they're 24-15 on the road but just 16-20 at home. They have to find a way to limit those home runs at home ... because they're not going to score 15 runs every game.
Francisco Lindor
2016: .301/.358/.435
2017: .253/.316/.473
Jason Kipnis
2016: .275/.343/.469
2017: .233/.288/.402
Carlos Santana
2016: .259/.366/.498
2017: .225/.338/.384
That's a lot less on-basing going on there. Kipnis injured a shoulder in spring training, missed time and hasn't turned it on the plate. Santana hit 34 home runs in 2016 but is on pace for 19 this year -- but his home run numbers have been inconsistent throughout his career.
Lindor is the interesting case here. After hitting .301 in his first full season, he started this season on fire, hitting .309/.380/.638 with seven home runs in April. If the power output was legit to go with his Gold Glove defense, he looked like an MVP candidate. The power numbers have remained there -- he's on pace for 45 doubles and 30 home runs -- but that has come with a lower average and lower OBP. He's too good of a hitter to be sitting on a .316 OBP, and you wonder if he's become a little homer-happy at the plate.
The good news here: The Indians still are averaging 4.80 runs per game, compared to 4.83 last season. That's not quite as good relative to the league -- the AL is averaging 4.72 runs per game, up from 4.52 -- but it points to an offense that should get better if these three start producing more (and Encarnacion, after a slow start, is finally hitting, as well).
Here's the thing: All the numbers still point to an eventual decisive division title for the Indians. They've dominated their division rivals in run differential -- plus-51 compared to minus-41 for the Twins and minus-38 for the Royals -- and while run differential can sometimes be misleading, especially early in the season, in this case it probably does point to the relative strengths of these teams. That's why FanGraphs still projects the Indians winning 91 games and the Twins and Royals winning 79, with the Indians' odds of winning the division now projected at 92 percent --
higher than before the season.
Still, they've left the door ajar to give Twins and Royals fans some hope. Kipnis is certainly a concern, Tomlin's home runs are a problem, but they have an ace in Kluber, an excellent bullpen and depth in the lineup. Then there's this: With the Rangers currently sitting at .500, the Indians' next 23 games are against teams .500 or under. Don't be surprised to see a big run from them heading into August.
http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/...ed-away-but-still-big-favorites-in-al-central
