In the possible event that we do trade up from 12, I want to crunch some numbers real fast so we can determine if we have to overpay.
In 2016, we dealt with Tennessee so they could come up and get Jack Conklin. I'm going to use the Johnson value charts, but it won't matter since it's only for the sake of comparison.
We traded 8 (1400 points) and a 6th, 176 (21 points) to move down to 15 (1050 points) while adding 76 in 2016 (210 points) and a future 2017 second (which we now know is 380 points, but future draft picks carry less value in the NFL).
Thus, by playing the patience game with the future 2nd, we won that trade by a net 1640 to 1421.
Now, this year, the Titans are ironically another of the more likely trade-up destinations. If we base this trade off of last year, given the similarity, we can expect something close.
Moving from 5 (1700 points) to 12 (1200 points) is a slightly larger gap (150 points). However, by giving #52 back, we make up most of the difference with 380 points. Thus, including a future 3rd may be all we need to make it reflect last year's trade.
Yes, the trade isn't won by the same margin. However, many teams don't value the long game and would rather have a 2nd this year versus the next. At most, I would swap out 33 and 52 to get a deal done, but that future third would have to be removed from the trade.
We shall see. But giving up multiple seconds/firsts to move up as portrayed throughout the media is just foolish and would be a poor move.
