BimboColesHair
Hall-of-Famer
- Joined
- Dec 31, 2011
- Messages
- 22,557
- Reaction score
- 58,594
- Points
- 148
Seasons over...personal updated top 25 prospects.
1. Francisco Mejia - Catcher - 21 years old
AA: 92 games, .297/.346/.490...14 HR, 21 2B, 2 3B, 52 RBI, 52 R, 7 SB, 2 CS, 24 BB:53 K, 127 wRC+
Did nothing to lose the #1 spot. Career high in HRs, K% still in the low teens so his contact remains very high, caught 30% of would be base stealers, and set a career low figure on passed balls. Will be curious to see how he transitions to 3B in the AZFL, as he definitely has the arm strength for the position and it would keep him in the lineup more often than as a C, but he made steps defensively this season as a C, which ups his value a bit.
2. Triston McKenzie - RH Pitcher - 20 years old
A+: 25 starts, 12-6, 3.46 ERA, 143 IP, 105 H, 55 ER, 186 K, 45 BB, .283 BABIP
Not much needs to be said about McKenzie that hasn't been said before. He is dominating leagues while being 4 years younger than the average age of the league, and is doing that while still having loads of projection left due to his body type. He led all of minor league baseball in Ks as a 19/20 year old. He knows how to pitch, has good stuff, he throws strikes, and this season he had to extend his stuff out, as he threw 60 more IP than the season before, and showed no signs of dropping off over those last 60 IP. As he continues to add good weight, it should only make him better, which should make Indians fans salivate. Go watch him in Akron next season if you can.
3. Nolan Jones - Third Baseman - 19 years old
SS A: 62 games, .317/.430/.482...4 HR, 18 2B, 3 3B, 33 RBI, 41 R, 1 SB, 0 CS, 43 BB:60 K, 171 wRC+
Point blank, Jones should be a top 100 prospect after the season he had. The power is starting to catch up to the on-base and plate discipline skills. 1st in the NYPL in OPS, walks, and on-base percentage, 2nd in doubles and total bases, 3rd in hits, batting average, slugging percentage, and runs scored, and 6th in RBI. He has smooth hitting mechanics and soft hands at 3B, though he fell victim to typical short-season A league defensive issues. As his body matures, more power should keep coming from him, and eventually some of the 2Bs will go over the wall.
4. Bobby Bradley - First Baseman - 21 years old
AA: 131 games, .251/.331/.465...23 HR, 25 2B, 3 3B, 89 RBI, 66 R, 3 SB, 3 CS, 55 BB:122 K, 116 wRC+
While his stat line won't open eyes, if you watched him play at all this season you'd have come away feeling much better about him as an MLB prospect moving forward than after his previous 2 seasons, which landed him in the top 100 prospect conversation. He spent most of his season tinkering with his stance and mechanics in an attempt to make more consistent contact, and more consistent hard contact. That tinkering led to a monster drop off in his K rate, higher contact rates, and perhaps even better, a much more scattered hit chart. Career highs in balls put into play to center and his opposite field, while a full season low in K% are good things to take into the off season to work on, which he will. Oh yeah, he was 3 years younger than league average, is still just 21, was 2nd in the Eastern League in RBIs, and 6th in HRs and total bases, and played his best defense at 1B in his pro career, all while experimenting the majority of the season. Too bad he's a non-factor.
5. Will Benson - Outfielder - 19 years old
SS A: 56 games, .238/.347/.475...10 HR, 8 2B, 5 3B, 36 RBI, 29 R, 7 SB, 1 CS, 31 BB:80 K, 146 wRC+
Yet another guy who is working in-game with mechanical changes to his swing (new hands position, lower and smoother stride), Benson just improved on what he did in the AZL last year; get on base and slug. Like you would expect, he struggled early on getting used to his new mechanics while playing, but got more and more comfortable with them as the season went on, which should be very exciting. Had an OPS a bit over .700 in his first 30 games, but an OPS over 1.000 his last 25. 1st in the NYPL in HRs, 3rd in RBIs, 4th in slugging percentage, 5th in OPS, and 6th in total bases. The fact that he had a positive trend season while working on mechanics is a great sign moving forward. Contact rate is hopefully the next step in his progression. He still has the highest ceiling of all the position players, and its not even close. The size/power/speed combo is just incredible. Go catch him, Jones, and a few others on this list in Lake County next year.
6. Yu-Cheng Chang - Shortstop - 22 years old
AA: 126 games, .220/.312/.461...24 HR, 24 2B, 5 3B, 66 RBI, 72 R, 11 SB, 4 CS, 52 BB:134 K, 110 wRC+
In what I think was a down season from him, a 21 year old shortstop hit 24 HRs in AA. He set career high marks in BBs and BB%, HRs, and total bases. All in all, he had a fairly unlucky season. His minors BABIP floated around .300 in his first 3 seasons as a pro, and he posted a .254 this year, so hopefully he sees a bit more luck next season on balls he puts in play, but he needs to get his contact rate up and K rate down if he wants to remain a top prospect moving forward. He isn't an all or nothing swinger, and he has a very simple swing, so I believe these issues can be fixed moving forward. Still the same type of prospect, even after a somewhat down year. SS who is athletic enough to move anywhere on the field if need be, whose bat will give him value.
7. Greg Allen - Outfielder - 24 years old
RK/AA: 76 games, .267/.345/.355...2 HR, 16 2B, 1 3B, 26 RBI, 40 R, 24 SB, 2 CS, 22 BB:56 K, 95 wRC+
He broke his hand early in the season, and it cost him a good stat line which would have kept him in the fringe top 100 prospect range, but he is still the same as he was when he was said fringe top 100 prospect. He is a plus plus defender, a plus plus runner, and a plus plus on-base skills hitter. He is the prototype of a present day baseball lead-off hitter; he gets on base a ton, he steals a ton of bases, and best of all, he's match-up proof as a switch-hitter. Him taking the leap straight from AA to the MLB after an injury shortened season should give you a good view on how the organization views him.
8. Willi Castro - Shortstop - 20 years old
A+: 123 games, .290/.337/.424...11 HR, 24 2B, 3 3B, 58 RBI, 69 R, 19 SB, 9 CS, 28 BB:90 K, 115 wRC+
Enough is made of Castro's speed and defense at SS, but he had been an all glove, no bat player his first 3 pro seasons, which has kept me a bit lower on him than most. He changed that this year. In an era of baseball where power from a plus defender at SS is as valuable as you can get, seeing a switch-hitting 20 year old plus defender at SS hit 11 HRs in the Carolina League, which is usually tough on power numbers, certainly was a welcoming sign (for reference, Lindor hit 1 HR in 327 Carolina League ABs as a 19 year old). Career highs all around for him; batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, BBs, RBI, Rs, 2Bs, HRs, total bases. He can take the next step by refining his defense a bit (he's an excitable player, and it gets him in trouble with his mechanics a bit), lowering his K rate, and upping his on-base skills a bit.
9. Shane Bieber - RH Pitcher - 22 years old
A/A+/AA: 28 starts, 10-5, 2.86 ERA, 173.1 IP, 185 H, 55 ER, 162 K, 10 BB, .333 BABIP
I don't think I have to explain how ridiculous it is that a guy struck out 162 batters while only walking 10 over 173 innings of pitching, never mind that it was done across 3 leagues to different hitters, different catchers, and different umpires. The biggest takeaway from Bieber in his 2nd year as a pro was that his stuff got noticeably better, while the thing he was most known for coming into the draft, his command, still shined. His FB was consistently up 2-3 MPH higher than last year, surprisingly touching 94 in one of the games I watched him pitch in with Akron. The velocity increase made his change-up more effective, and gave his slider a bit more bite. He still needs to shake the Adam Plutko comparisons moving forward, however.
10. Aaron Civale - RH Pitcher - 22 years old
A/A+: 27 starts, 13-6, 3.28 ERA, 164.2 IP, 160 H, 60 ER, 141 K, 14 BB, .320 BABIP
Yet again, another guy who posted just an absurd K to BB ratio, and from the same 2016 draft class. However, Civale has the chance to be a much better pitcher/prospect than Bieber in the long run, in my opinion. If there is one guy in the farm who can turn into the next Kluber, I think it is Civale. He already has Kluber's primary pitches in his arsenal, a good arm side run sinking fastball, mixed with a plus slider, but is missing the refinement, additional secondary offerings (though he mixes in a nice change up here and there), and added velocity that comes with maturing and mastering your mechanics. Only concern with Civale moving forward is his durability, but the fact that he threw 164 innings and seemingly got stronger deeper into the season should put that concern to rest for a bit.
11. Tyler Freeman - Shortstop - 18 years old
RK: 36 games, .297/.364/.414...2 HR, 9 2B, 0 3B, 14 RBI, 19 R, 5 SB, 1 CS, 7 BB:12 K, 116 wRC+
He showed why he was touted as California's best hitter prior to this years draft in his brief season in Arizona. We've seen a few High School draftees completely skip over short season ball and go straight to full season ball recently, as seen with Conner Capel this year, and it wouldn't surprise me if Freeman was to do the same. He has a chance to stick at shortstop moving forward, but he also has a lot of utility potential, which makes him more valuable. Will be curious to see where he plays next year.
12. Conner Capel - Outfielder - 20 years old
A: 119 games, .246/.316/.478...22 HR, 22 2B, 7 3B, 61 RBI, 73 R, 15 SB, 10 CS, 43 BB:108 K, 121 wRC+
Not sure anyone expected this kind of power from Capel. He was pretty much an all speed and glove/arm prospect when he was drafted out of High School last year, and after skipping over short season ball entirely, it was nice to see him keep his head above water in his first full pro season. There were a lot of positive signs to take into the off season for Capel as well. He finished very strong, posting an .827 OPS in the 2nd half (61 games), dropped his K% from 24.7% to 19.5% in the 2nd half, and slashed pretty well against LHP as a LH hitter; .246/.318/.455. He still has mechanical issues to work through, as his hitting mechanics are a bit robotic and stiff, but he has taken a monster step forward this year by adding power to his speed and glove/arm. We'll find out if the power is legit next season in the Carolina League.
13. Quentin Holmes - Outfielder - 18 years old
RK: 41 games, .182/.220/.289...2 HR, 5 2B, 3 3B, 15 RBI, 22 R, 5 SB, 4 CS, 8 BB:61 K, 39 wRC+
Holmes stat line shouldn't take away from his prospect status at all, considering he was drafted as a raw prospect with tools to work with. Much like Benson last year, Holmes fits the bill of the prospect with unteachable skills, his size and speed combo, but who needs coached up and patience with as a player. He has a big frame (6'3) which he hopefully adds good weight to, and 70+ grade speed to go with it, so the raw tools are there...now he needs to add the skill. Quieting his swing mechanics will be a good start. But in a farm that lacks high upside RH hitting outfielders, it will be worth watching Holmes' progression closely moving forward.
14. Francisco Perez - LH Pitcher - 20 years old
SS A: 15 starts, 4-4, 3.28 ERA, 74 IP, 67 H, 27 ER, 48 K, 28 BB, .263 BABIP
Lefty starters with mid 90s fastballs don't grow on trees, especially ones in their teens. Perez is still a ways away from mattering, and I may be higher on him than most, but the stuff is too good to overlook. He still needs refinement, especially mechanical as he is a bit inconsistent with his arm slot, leading to control issues, but stuff always plays. Certainly not the worst of numbers in his first taste of pro ball outside of the Dominican and the AZL League, and hopefully he can build off of that. Expect him to slot into the rotation on what should be a very entertaining Lake County Captains team next year, as quite a few of these guys will be on that team.
15. Zach Plesac - RH Pitcher - 22 years old
SS A/A: 13 starts, 1-2, 2.47 ERA, 51 IP, 33 H, 14 ER, 50 K, 14 BB, .240 BABIP
Plesac missed all of 2016 after Tommy John surgery, but he is pretty much a carbon copy of his fellow 2016 draft mates Bieber and Civale. He has MLB bloodlines, as the nephew of Dan Plesac, and he knows how to pitch. Couple that in with a frame that could get stronger as he matures (6'3) and progressing away from TJ more and more, and it makes the 2016 draft class look to be a very interesting one for the Indians long term potential. He throws hard, works in a good change up, and has simple to repeat mechanics. His questions will always be about his durability, however, which could lead to a move to the bullpen down the line. It will be interesting to see how he responds to pitching a full season next year, as that could make or break his prospect status as a starter.
1. Francisco Mejia - Catcher - 21 years old
AA: 92 games, .297/.346/.490...14 HR, 21 2B, 2 3B, 52 RBI, 52 R, 7 SB, 2 CS, 24 BB:53 K, 127 wRC+
Did nothing to lose the #1 spot. Career high in HRs, K% still in the low teens so his contact remains very high, caught 30% of would be base stealers, and set a career low figure on passed balls. Will be curious to see how he transitions to 3B in the AZFL, as he definitely has the arm strength for the position and it would keep him in the lineup more often than as a C, but he made steps defensively this season as a C, which ups his value a bit.
2. Triston McKenzie - RH Pitcher - 20 years old
A+: 25 starts, 12-6, 3.46 ERA, 143 IP, 105 H, 55 ER, 186 K, 45 BB, .283 BABIP
Not much needs to be said about McKenzie that hasn't been said before. He is dominating leagues while being 4 years younger than the average age of the league, and is doing that while still having loads of projection left due to his body type. He led all of minor league baseball in Ks as a 19/20 year old. He knows how to pitch, has good stuff, he throws strikes, and this season he had to extend his stuff out, as he threw 60 more IP than the season before, and showed no signs of dropping off over those last 60 IP. As he continues to add good weight, it should only make him better, which should make Indians fans salivate. Go watch him in Akron next season if you can.
3. Nolan Jones - Third Baseman - 19 years old
SS A: 62 games, .317/.430/.482...4 HR, 18 2B, 3 3B, 33 RBI, 41 R, 1 SB, 0 CS, 43 BB:60 K, 171 wRC+
Point blank, Jones should be a top 100 prospect after the season he had. The power is starting to catch up to the on-base and plate discipline skills. 1st in the NYPL in OPS, walks, and on-base percentage, 2nd in doubles and total bases, 3rd in hits, batting average, slugging percentage, and runs scored, and 6th in RBI. He has smooth hitting mechanics and soft hands at 3B, though he fell victim to typical short-season A league defensive issues. As his body matures, more power should keep coming from him, and eventually some of the 2Bs will go over the wall.
4. Bobby Bradley - First Baseman - 21 years old
AA: 131 games, .251/.331/.465...23 HR, 25 2B, 3 3B, 89 RBI, 66 R, 3 SB, 3 CS, 55 BB:122 K, 116 wRC+
While his stat line won't open eyes, if you watched him play at all this season you'd have come away feeling much better about him as an MLB prospect moving forward than after his previous 2 seasons, which landed him in the top 100 prospect conversation. He spent most of his season tinkering with his stance and mechanics in an attempt to make more consistent contact, and more consistent hard contact. That tinkering led to a monster drop off in his K rate, higher contact rates, and perhaps even better, a much more scattered hit chart. Career highs in balls put into play to center and his opposite field, while a full season low in K% are good things to take into the off season to work on, which he will. Oh yeah, he was 3 years younger than league average, is still just 21, was 2nd in the Eastern League in RBIs, and 6th in HRs and total bases, and played his best defense at 1B in his pro career, all while experimenting the majority of the season. Too bad he's a non-factor.
5. Will Benson - Outfielder - 19 years old
SS A: 56 games, .238/.347/.475...10 HR, 8 2B, 5 3B, 36 RBI, 29 R, 7 SB, 1 CS, 31 BB:80 K, 146 wRC+
Yet another guy who is working in-game with mechanical changes to his swing (new hands position, lower and smoother stride), Benson just improved on what he did in the AZL last year; get on base and slug. Like you would expect, he struggled early on getting used to his new mechanics while playing, but got more and more comfortable with them as the season went on, which should be very exciting. Had an OPS a bit over .700 in his first 30 games, but an OPS over 1.000 his last 25. 1st in the NYPL in HRs, 3rd in RBIs, 4th in slugging percentage, 5th in OPS, and 6th in total bases. The fact that he had a positive trend season while working on mechanics is a great sign moving forward. Contact rate is hopefully the next step in his progression. He still has the highest ceiling of all the position players, and its not even close. The size/power/speed combo is just incredible. Go catch him, Jones, and a few others on this list in Lake County next year.
6. Yu-Cheng Chang - Shortstop - 22 years old
AA: 126 games, .220/.312/.461...24 HR, 24 2B, 5 3B, 66 RBI, 72 R, 11 SB, 4 CS, 52 BB:134 K, 110 wRC+
In what I think was a down season from him, a 21 year old shortstop hit 24 HRs in AA. He set career high marks in BBs and BB%, HRs, and total bases. All in all, he had a fairly unlucky season. His minors BABIP floated around .300 in his first 3 seasons as a pro, and he posted a .254 this year, so hopefully he sees a bit more luck next season on balls he puts in play, but he needs to get his contact rate up and K rate down if he wants to remain a top prospect moving forward. He isn't an all or nothing swinger, and he has a very simple swing, so I believe these issues can be fixed moving forward. Still the same type of prospect, even after a somewhat down year. SS who is athletic enough to move anywhere on the field if need be, whose bat will give him value.
7. Greg Allen - Outfielder - 24 years old
RK/AA: 76 games, .267/.345/.355...2 HR, 16 2B, 1 3B, 26 RBI, 40 R, 24 SB, 2 CS, 22 BB:56 K, 95 wRC+
He broke his hand early in the season, and it cost him a good stat line which would have kept him in the fringe top 100 prospect range, but he is still the same as he was when he was said fringe top 100 prospect. He is a plus plus defender, a plus plus runner, and a plus plus on-base skills hitter. He is the prototype of a present day baseball lead-off hitter; he gets on base a ton, he steals a ton of bases, and best of all, he's match-up proof as a switch-hitter. Him taking the leap straight from AA to the MLB after an injury shortened season should give you a good view on how the organization views him.
8. Willi Castro - Shortstop - 20 years old
A+: 123 games, .290/.337/.424...11 HR, 24 2B, 3 3B, 58 RBI, 69 R, 19 SB, 9 CS, 28 BB:90 K, 115 wRC+
Enough is made of Castro's speed and defense at SS, but he had been an all glove, no bat player his first 3 pro seasons, which has kept me a bit lower on him than most. He changed that this year. In an era of baseball where power from a plus defender at SS is as valuable as you can get, seeing a switch-hitting 20 year old plus defender at SS hit 11 HRs in the Carolina League, which is usually tough on power numbers, certainly was a welcoming sign (for reference, Lindor hit 1 HR in 327 Carolina League ABs as a 19 year old). Career highs all around for him; batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, BBs, RBI, Rs, 2Bs, HRs, total bases. He can take the next step by refining his defense a bit (he's an excitable player, and it gets him in trouble with his mechanics a bit), lowering his K rate, and upping his on-base skills a bit.
9. Shane Bieber - RH Pitcher - 22 years old
A/A+/AA: 28 starts, 10-5, 2.86 ERA, 173.1 IP, 185 H, 55 ER, 162 K, 10 BB, .333 BABIP
I don't think I have to explain how ridiculous it is that a guy struck out 162 batters while only walking 10 over 173 innings of pitching, never mind that it was done across 3 leagues to different hitters, different catchers, and different umpires. The biggest takeaway from Bieber in his 2nd year as a pro was that his stuff got noticeably better, while the thing he was most known for coming into the draft, his command, still shined. His FB was consistently up 2-3 MPH higher than last year, surprisingly touching 94 in one of the games I watched him pitch in with Akron. The velocity increase made his change-up more effective, and gave his slider a bit more bite. He still needs to shake the Adam Plutko comparisons moving forward, however.
10. Aaron Civale - RH Pitcher - 22 years old
A/A+: 27 starts, 13-6, 3.28 ERA, 164.2 IP, 160 H, 60 ER, 141 K, 14 BB, .320 BABIP
Yet again, another guy who posted just an absurd K to BB ratio, and from the same 2016 draft class. However, Civale has the chance to be a much better pitcher/prospect than Bieber in the long run, in my opinion. If there is one guy in the farm who can turn into the next Kluber, I think it is Civale. He already has Kluber's primary pitches in his arsenal, a good arm side run sinking fastball, mixed with a plus slider, but is missing the refinement, additional secondary offerings (though he mixes in a nice change up here and there), and added velocity that comes with maturing and mastering your mechanics. Only concern with Civale moving forward is his durability, but the fact that he threw 164 innings and seemingly got stronger deeper into the season should put that concern to rest for a bit.
11. Tyler Freeman - Shortstop - 18 years old
RK: 36 games, .297/.364/.414...2 HR, 9 2B, 0 3B, 14 RBI, 19 R, 5 SB, 1 CS, 7 BB:12 K, 116 wRC+
He showed why he was touted as California's best hitter prior to this years draft in his brief season in Arizona. We've seen a few High School draftees completely skip over short season ball and go straight to full season ball recently, as seen with Conner Capel this year, and it wouldn't surprise me if Freeman was to do the same. He has a chance to stick at shortstop moving forward, but he also has a lot of utility potential, which makes him more valuable. Will be curious to see where he plays next year.
12. Conner Capel - Outfielder - 20 years old
A: 119 games, .246/.316/.478...22 HR, 22 2B, 7 3B, 61 RBI, 73 R, 15 SB, 10 CS, 43 BB:108 K, 121 wRC+
Not sure anyone expected this kind of power from Capel. He was pretty much an all speed and glove/arm prospect when he was drafted out of High School last year, and after skipping over short season ball entirely, it was nice to see him keep his head above water in his first full pro season. There were a lot of positive signs to take into the off season for Capel as well. He finished very strong, posting an .827 OPS in the 2nd half (61 games), dropped his K% from 24.7% to 19.5% in the 2nd half, and slashed pretty well against LHP as a LH hitter; .246/.318/.455. He still has mechanical issues to work through, as his hitting mechanics are a bit robotic and stiff, but he has taken a monster step forward this year by adding power to his speed and glove/arm. We'll find out if the power is legit next season in the Carolina League.
13. Quentin Holmes - Outfielder - 18 years old
RK: 41 games, .182/.220/.289...2 HR, 5 2B, 3 3B, 15 RBI, 22 R, 5 SB, 4 CS, 8 BB:61 K, 39 wRC+
Holmes stat line shouldn't take away from his prospect status at all, considering he was drafted as a raw prospect with tools to work with. Much like Benson last year, Holmes fits the bill of the prospect with unteachable skills, his size and speed combo, but who needs coached up and patience with as a player. He has a big frame (6'3) which he hopefully adds good weight to, and 70+ grade speed to go with it, so the raw tools are there...now he needs to add the skill. Quieting his swing mechanics will be a good start. But in a farm that lacks high upside RH hitting outfielders, it will be worth watching Holmes' progression closely moving forward.
14. Francisco Perez - LH Pitcher - 20 years old
SS A: 15 starts, 4-4, 3.28 ERA, 74 IP, 67 H, 27 ER, 48 K, 28 BB, .263 BABIP
Lefty starters with mid 90s fastballs don't grow on trees, especially ones in their teens. Perez is still a ways away from mattering, and I may be higher on him than most, but the stuff is too good to overlook. He still needs refinement, especially mechanical as he is a bit inconsistent with his arm slot, leading to control issues, but stuff always plays. Certainly not the worst of numbers in his first taste of pro ball outside of the Dominican and the AZL League, and hopefully he can build off of that. Expect him to slot into the rotation on what should be a very entertaining Lake County Captains team next year, as quite a few of these guys will be on that team.
15. Zach Plesac - RH Pitcher - 22 years old
SS A/A: 13 starts, 1-2, 2.47 ERA, 51 IP, 33 H, 14 ER, 50 K, 14 BB, .240 BABIP
Plesac missed all of 2016 after Tommy John surgery, but he is pretty much a carbon copy of his fellow 2016 draft mates Bieber and Civale. He has MLB bloodlines, as the nephew of Dan Plesac, and he knows how to pitch. Couple that in with a frame that could get stronger as he matures (6'3) and progressing away from TJ more and more, and it makes the 2016 draft class look to be a very interesting one for the Indians long term potential. He throws hard, works in a good change up, and has simple to repeat mechanics. His questions will always be about his durability, however, which could lead to a move to the bullpen down the line. It will be interesting to see how he responds to pitching a full season next year, as that could make or break his prospect status as a starter.
Last edited:
