2018-2019 Tank Thread

[Douglar]

7th seed? Are you high? We want to be amongst the worst records.

The top seed in the draft has a 40.1% chance of getting a top 3 pick this year. The 7th seed in the draft has a 23.4% chance. There's a difference there, sure, but it is close. Both have a decent chance. 7th seed ain't a long shot anymore. Even if the Cavs were to collapse & get the worst record, the team is more likely to end up picking outside the top 3 than in the top 3. In a draft class of 3 top prospects, that would suck. The most likely outcome for the top seed is the 5th pick (47.9% chance) and the most likely outcome for the 7th seed gets the 8th pick (34.1% chance) .

Is it worth it to tank the season to pick 5th instead of 8th? Is the incremental percentage at a top 3 pick worth melting the locker room and the fans eye balls when it is not a sure thing? I don't think it is.

That's why I say 6th or 7th seed is the sweet spot.

 

[bigking777]

That's crazy logic, though.

The 6th seed has a 37.2% chance of getting a top-4 pick. (No chance at the #5).
The 7th seed has a 31.9% chance of getting a top-4 pick. (No chance at the #5 or #6).

The #1, #2 and #3 seeds have a 52.1% chance of getting a top-4 pick.

Additionally, #1 cannot fall lower than fifth.
#2 cannot fall lower than sixth.
#3 cannot fall lower than seventh.

 

[inliner311]

The top seed in the draft has a 40.1% chance of getting a top 3 pick this year. The 7th seed in the draft has a 23.4% chance. There's a difference there, sure, but it is close. Both have a decent chance. 7th seed ain't a long shot anymore. Even if the Cavs were to collapse & get the worst record, the team is more likely to end up picking outside the top 3 than in the top 3. In a draft class of 3 top prospects, that would suck. The most likely outcome for the top seed is the 5th pick (47.9% chance) and the most likely outcome for the 7th seed gets the 8th pick (34.1% chance) .

Is it worth it to tank the season to pick 5th instead of 8th? Is the incremental percentage at a top 3 pick worth melting the locker room and the fans eye balls when it is not a sure thing? I don't think it is.

That's why I say 6th or 7th seed is the sweet spot.

I think you're looking at the best or neutral case scenarios. You also have to look at the bad and worst case scenarios to determine how hard we should tank. Pair the range we can truely fall in and the depth of the draft class to find where we should really aim to land. As an organization we don't want to go thru a crap season and land out of the range of players that can make an impact.

Nothing is guaranteed in the draft but a couple more months of horrible basketball vs the chance of another full year of it, should be looked at. For me adding that 4th spot that a team can jump up is more of an impact to the way we should tank than the percentages.

Also the 7th worse record put into play a nightmare scenario even if its just a small chance, that 4 teams jump us and we don't even get our pick. That alone should make us tank to put it out of the equation.

 

[6.19.2016]

I think you're looking at the best or neutral case scenarios. You also have to look at the bad and worst case scenarios to determine how hard we should tank. Pair the range we can truely fall in and the depth of the draft class to find where we should really aim to land. As an organization we don't want to go thru a crap season and land out of the range of players that can make an impact.

Nothing is guaranteed in the draft but a couple more months of horrible basketball vs the chance of another full year of it, should be looked at. For me adding that 4th spot that a team can jump up is more of an impact to the way we should tank than the percentages.

Also the 7th worse record put into play a nightmare scenario even if its just a small chance, that 4 teams jump us and we don't even get our pick. That alone should make us tank to put it out of the equation.

It's likely more a case of 1 more bad year besides this one, vs. treadmilling.

We need to do this bottom-10 thing next year (which I don't think will be much of a problem) and convey the 2nd round picks after that; going into the 2020-21 season will be when the East will open up a bit because Philly and Boston will likely struggle to afford their rosters, and, who knows, Giannis may no longer be in Milwaukee or in the East altogether.

 

[inliner311]

It's likely more a case of 1 more bad year besides this one, vs. treadmilling.

We need to do this bottom-10 thing next year (which I don't think will be much of a problem) and convey the 2nd round picks after that; going into the 2020-21 season will be when the East will open up a bit because Philly and Boston will likely struggle to afford their rosters, and, who knows, Giannis may no longer be in Milwaukee or in the East altogether.

Yeah we will most likely have to be bad next year too to get our first round pick but hitting on the pick this year opens up options for next year. I think I should have said if we don't hit on our pick this year it sets us back another year.

 

[Douglar]

Yeah we will most likely have to be bad next year too to get our first round pick but hitting on the pick this year opens up options for next year. I think I should have said if we don't hit on our pick this year it sets us back another year.

That's why the notion that the team is going to keep a grey haired k-love until then seems implausible.

 

[inliner311]

That's why the notion that the team is going to keep a grey haired k-love until then seems implausible.

There might be a way to get our pick back from the Hawks if we do get better though. We have more assets now and Gilbert's willingness to take on money could make it happen.

I think keeping Love has always been about keeping flexibility in our roster. If we draft a PF, I could see us moving Love immediately. We seem to be in position to take the best player available in the draft and rework the roster from there. Even if the best player is a PG, I think the front office will try to make it work like Portland has with Lillard and McCollum.

 

[Bulldog2Buckeye]

Gonna be tough to out tank some of these teams, especially the wizards now that wall is out. They had already given up and now players may not even show up to games lmao. I don’t understand how that team falls apart so quickly every single year despite its talent

 

[buzzdog]

Eh... for fucksake, the tank is alive and well, and we're a lock to be one of the 4 worst records when it's all said and done.

 

[Nphan]

We might suck for a long time. With the ways things are going with Sexton being one of the worst rookies in the NBA. Where is the hope? This front office obviously does not have an eye for talent, talent development and coaching. Can Zion really save us?

 

[tonyn]

Eh... for fucksake, the tank is alive and well, and we're a lock to be one of the 4 worst records when it's all said and done.

We can't talk about playoffs anymore. Before the season I was hard-headed and said we still had a chance post lebron. Naw, we don't. We suck out loud.just hope we can grow.

 

[Deezus]

Check out the current league standings...

#ALLin216

 

[Gimme Some Mo]

We might suck for a long time. With the ways things are going with Sexton being one of the worst rookies in the NBA. Where is the hope? This front office obviously does not have an eye for talent, talent development and coaching. Can Zion really save us?

It is very discouraging that this basically feels like a wasted season. Instead of this being "Year 1 of the rebuild," it feels more like just a pointless season due to how bad Sexton has looked. It's just hard to comprehend what the Cavs were thinking when they drafted a "Point guard" that isn't a good passer or shooter... only the 2 most important traits of a PG.

 

[Futuredome]

It is very discouraging that this basically feels like a wasted season. Instead of this being "Year 1 of the rebuild," it feels more like just a pointless season due to how bad Sexton has looked. It's just hard to comprehend what the Cavs were thinking when they drafted a "Point guard" that isn't a good passer or shooter... only the 2 most important traits of a PG.

Sorry, but Sexton was always going to look bad. I don't get your post or expectations. Get the tank, respect the tank and get the Zion or RJ. Anything less matters. Getting 1 of those 2 dudes is why this exists.

 

[PIP]

Zion Waiters !!!

Need it