2018 Draft Prospects Thread

[Triplethreat]

There are a few of these guys who I would be very happy to have, but they either did not get the chance to play much because there was already an entrenched starter (Conner, Foreman), or they played behind an atrocious offensive line (Mixon). Perine looks like he sucks, but he was also a low-risk pick in the 4th round.

And while I know you were not making an exhaustive list, there are also some good second- and third-day RBs you have left out: Devonta Freeman, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt and Dalvin Cook, to name several. Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, Damien Harris, Ronald Jones, Royce Freeman and potentially Derius Guice will likely be available when we pick in the second round.

I think Barkley is going to be a very good RB, but that is such a devalued position in today's NFL.

The point is the hit rate gets incredibly lower after the first round.

There are good second and third day backs, but the hit rate there is even lower. Likely sub 10%.

The hit rate at the top of the draft is just about as automatic as it gets, and the players usually end up becoming the elite backs as well. With the exception of a David Johnson or Kamara.

It's risky taking a back in the 2nd and 3rd when you only have a 40% hit rate.

 

[Triplethreat]

Vikings got nearly 1000 total yards from McKinnon this year, that's not a miss.

Neither is Kenyan Drake, who is averaging 5 ypc through 2 years and had close to 900 total yards this year in limited touches

Definitely wouldn't call Mixon a miss either. Dominated vs. the Browns and Ravens to finish the year, is running behind an awful line, and dealt with a committee all season.

I'd definitely consider Hyde a hit.

I'm talking guys who can carry a load consistently. Not whether they're good players or not, thus leaving McKinnon and Drake off was a must.

Hyde is always hurt, and Mixon has shown nothing. The point still stands. It's 50-50 in those rounds compared to 90%+ and better players at the top.

 

[Soda]

Vikings got nearly 1000 total yards from McKinnon this year, that's not a miss.

Neither is Kenyan Drake, who is averaging 5 ypc through 2 years and had close to 900 total yards this year in limited touches

Definitely wouldn't call Mixon a miss either. Dominated vs. the Browns and Ravens to finish the year, is running behind an awful line, and dealt with a committee all season.

I'd definitely consider Hyde a hit.

Calling Conner a miss is stupid, he's playing behind LeVeon Bell

Foreman is going to be taking the load in Houston next year, so not sure how that's a miss.

 

[Jack Brickman]

Foreman is going to be taking the load in Houston next year, so not sure how that's a miss.

I'd say it's fair to call him a question mark but not a miss. He could end up sucking, or never recover from his injury. Same with Cook.

Mixon should be a question mark too. I think he showed enough to not be considered a miss but not enough to be a hit yet either.

 

[Triplethreat]

Foreman is going to be taking the load in Houston next year, so not sure how that's a miss.

He hasn't shown it yet. Nor was he able to beat out Miller this year. So for now, he resides in the miss category until proven otherwise.

 

[Los216]

I'd say it's fair to call him a question mark but not a miss. He could end up sucking, or never recover from his injury. Same with Cook.

Mixon should be a question mark too. I think he showed enough to not be considered a miss but not enough to be a hit yet either.

Joe Mixon is a beast. Cincy drafted him and then took half the season to acknowledge him.

 

[Jack Brickman]

Joe Mixon is a beast. Cincy drafted him and then took half the season to acknowledge him.

Eh...still hasn't shown enough to be labeled a for sure hit. Those games Mixon missed, Gio looked better than him.

 

[Urban]

I'm talking guys who can carry a load consistently. Not whether they're good players or not, thus leaving McKinnon and Drake off was a must.

Hyde is always hurt, and Mixon has shown nothing. The point still stands. It's 50-50 in those rounds compared to 90%+ and better players at the top.

So Tevin Coleman and Duke Johnson are guys who can carry a load consistently? How are their roles any different than McKinnon or Drake?

Hyde isn't always hurt. He was hurt in his 2nd year and played sparingly in his 1st year behind Gore. Missed 3 games the last 2 years. Around 2450 total yards the past 2 years on a team that was awful until they got a QB for their last 5 games. How is that a miss for a late 2nd round pick?

Mixon certainly showed his potential vs. Baltimore and Cleveland in December. He put up 210 on the ground combined in those games. He was finally featured and look great.

Your criteria is bad. Most of these 1st rounders are drafted in the 1st round to be feature backs. I don't think that's the expectation for a lot of these other guys.

 

[Triplethreat]

So Tevin Coleman and Duke Johnson are guys who can carry a load consistently? How are their roles any different than McKinnon or Drake?

Hyde isn't always hurt. He was hurt in his 2nd year and played sparingly in his 1st year behind Gore. Missed 3 games the last 2 years. Around 2450 total yards the past 2 years on a team that was awful until they got a QB for their last 5 games. How is that a miss for a late 2nd round pick?

Mixon certainly showed his potential vs. Baltimore and Cleveland in December. He put up 210 on the ground combined in those games. He was finally featured and look great.

Your criteria is bad. Most of these 1st rounders are drafted in the 1st round to be feature backs. I don't think that's the expectation for a lot of these other guys.

I have Hyde labeled a questionable HIT.

Also, I was iffy on Duke, but I think Coleman COULD carry a load if he didn't have Freeman in front of him.

Agree/disagree? We can move both to the miss category if you'd like. Just pushes my argument into stronger territory.

 

[Jack Brickman]

So Tevin Coleman and Duke Johnson are guys who can carry a load consistently? How are their roles any different than McKinnon or Drake?

Tevin Coleman has proven he can carry the load every time that Freeman misses games, and he produces with Freeman in as well. He just happened to be drafted to the same team where one of the best backs in the NFL broke out shortly after.

As for Duke, he's a satellite back. He's never going to be carrying the load, but I think he's a clear hit. Not every guy has to be an every down back to be a hit. I outlined in the other thread why Duke is valuable.

McKinnon is a really tough call. He hadn't done anything before this season, and it's tough to know what kind of position he'll be in next year. Same with Drake. Looked good, but hasn't had a full season's worth of production.

 

[AZ_]

What exactly does the hit rate of running backs decipher?

That players with different traits either played well or didn't and have zero relation to any running back in this years crop?

Solid science.

 

[Triplethreat]

What exactly does the hit rate of running backs decipher?

That players with different traits either played well or didn't and have zero relation to any running back in this years crop?

Solid science.

No. But we can use historical evidence as to how players drafted in similar ranges have faired, and how likely they are to become good NFL backs as compared to the top of the draft.

Disregarding it is just sheer ignorance, because there is a clear correlation.

 

[Jack Brickman]

What exactly does the hit rate of running backs decipher?

That players with different traits either played well or didn't and have zero relation to any running back in this years crop?

Solid science.

I also think that situation can greatly impact some RBs. Yeah, elite guys will probably succeed anywhere, but second and third tier guys can make it or fail based on where they end up. You end up on a team with a good offensive line and you can succeed without being an elite prospect, and maybe your team doesn't look to replace you in the offseason as a consequence. End of on a team with a shit offensive line and can't produce and maybe you don't get another shot the next year.

 

[Urban]

Can anyone tell me what was so impressive about Fournette this year?

I get their passing game is awful but taking a closer look at his rushing numbers and they're not all that impressive. Not all that far off from rookie Trent Richardson who got force fed carries every game.

In his 14 games, including the playoff game:

4 games with over 4.0 ypc
-28 carries for 181 yards (6.5 ypc) vs. Pittsburgh. Take away his 90 yd TD and he has 27 carries for 90 yards (3.3 ypc)
-21 carries for 130 yards (6.2 ypc) vs. LA Rams. Take away his 75 yd TD and he has 20 carries for 55 yards (2.8 ypc)

I don't want to take too much away from those runs, because they're literally game breaking / game changing runs but he did very little in those games outside of those 2 plays

6 games under 3.0 ypc

 

[AZ_]

No. But we can use historical evidence as to how players drafted in similar ranges have faired, and how likely they are to become good NFL backs as compared to the top of the draft.

Disregarding it is just sheer ignorance, because there is a clear correlation.

Where someone else is drafted has little to do with the traits of of Saquon Barkley or anyone else.

It's like the people who argue the player drafted at #22 can't be good because it's where the Browns took Johnny Manziel.

There isn't much correlation, just a smaller sample size. To say nothing of the fact that comparing this guy to Zeke and Fournette is a disservice to both players.