2018 Draft Prospects Thread

[Spectre]

Big, tall, strong arm...but inaccurate. Boy, where have I heard this before? Let's take a shot on him!!

I'm not a fan of statements like this... each player needs to be evaluated on his own merits.

The way I look at it, a QB generally needs to check the boxes in a few categories to play in the NFL. Usually when a guy busts, it's because he's missing something.

- Does he have the physical ability? Does he have enough arm to survive the increased speed of the NFL? Is he big and tough enough to survive the pounding? If he's smaller, can he still make it work?

- Does he have the mental ability? Does he have football IQ? Is he smart enough to learn what he currently lacks and improve on his weaknesses? Does he process fast enough?

- Does he have passion for it? Does he love the game? Is he competitive? Will he do the extra work needed to be great?

I don't think anyone questions his physical ability... his tools are off the charts. No one should question his passion either. This is a dude who sent over 1,000 e-mails trying to get a scholarship and his passion is obvious watching him play and hearing him talk.

That said, the dude is raw... he's incredibly inconsistent, has a lot to learn/refine and trusts his arm way too much. That's where the mental part comes in. He absolutely needs to improve. If he's smart enough to do it, willing to put in the time and work and we give him enough breathing room to learn, why won't he be great?

His lousy production is hard to look past but stats just hint at underlying traits that allow for success... guys without those traits are the ones who light up college then fail miserably in the NFL. If the stats aren't there, it's important to figure out if there's still ability beyond them. People want us to get Alex Smith, yet most on this board would've written him off after a few years when his stats and accuracy numbers were dogshit. Players can develop. I believe Josh Allen has all the traits to develop into a star.

If Dorsey wants a guy to start Year 1 then yeah, Allen is the wrong guy to pick. But if his plan is to add a veteran and let the rookie develop behind him for a year or two, Allen could easily end up being the best option in that scenario.

 

[AZ_]

I really like Josh Allen.

I really don't like Josh Allen where people project him to go.

Can't really sum it up better than that. But that arm is going to play, even if he does look like a baby giraffe in the pocket.

 

[Chris]

I'm not a fan of statements like this... each player needs to be evaluated on his own merits.

The way I look at it, a QB generally needs to check the boxes in a few categories to play in the NFL. Usually when a guy busts, it's because he's missing something.

- Does he have the physical ability? Does he have enough arm to survive the increased speed of the NFL? Is he big and tough enough to survive the pounding? If he's smaller, can he still make it work?

- Does he have the mental ability? Does he have football IQ? Is he smart enough to learn what he currently lacks and improve on his weaknesses? Does he process fast enough?

- Does he have passion for it? Does he love the game? Is he competitive? Will he do the extra work needed to be great?

I don't think anyone questions his physical ability... his tools are off the charts. No one should question his passion either. This is a dude who sent over 1,000 e-mails trying to get a scholarship and his passion is obvious watching him play and hearing him talk.

That said, the dude is raw... he's incredibly inconsistent, has a lot to learn/refine and trusts his arm way too much. That's where the mental part comes in. He absolutely needs to improve. If he's smart enough to do it, willing to put in the time and work and we give him enough breathing room to learn, why won't he be great?

His lousy production is hard to look past but stats just hint at underlying traits that allow for success... guys without those traits are the ones who light up college then fail miserably in the NFL. If the stats aren't there, it's important to figure out if there's still ability beyond them. People want us to get Alex Smith, yet most on this board would've written him off after a few years when his stats and accuracy numbers were dogshit. Players can develop. I believe Josh Allen has all the traits to develop into a star.

If Dorsey wants a guy to start Year 1 then yeah, Allen is the wrong guy to pick. But if his plan is to add a veteran and let the rookie develop behind him for a year or two, Allen could easily end up being the best option in that scenario.

Ok, great - but is there evidence out there of QBs who are very inconsistent and inaccurate that turn into good or great NFL QBs?

I just can’t justify the pick at 1. Can’t do it. Banking on him being developed by Hue’s staff is a scary proposition for a team that desperately needs studs with its top two picks.

 

[CBBI]

If you love prototypical traits, Josh Allen is your guy.

6’5”, 235 and he’ll step into the NFL next year with one of the strongest arms in all of football.

On top of that, he’s likely going to test extremely well athleticism wise. It’s easy to see why people make the Wentz comparison on a physical level.

But Allen’s accuracy problems are basically just a non-starter for me.

I really want to like the kid, but I just don’t see how it’s possible for him to succeed in the NFL when he’s that all over the place passing the ball.

 

[Spectre]

If you love prototypical traits, Josh Allen is your guy.

6’5”, 235 and he’ll step into the NFL next year with one of the strongest arms in all of football.

On top of that, he’s likely going to test extremely well athleticism wise. It’s easy to see why people make the Wentz comparison on a physical level.

But Allen’s accuracy problems are basically just a non-starter for me.

I really want to like the kid, but I just don’t see how it’s possible for him to succeed in the NFL when he’s that all over the place passing the ball.

It may just be me but I think there are different kinds of accuracy issues. Some guys just can't throw the ball to a spot no matter how hard they try. That's not Josh Allen. He can throw some absolute dimes. His issue is that his footwork and mechanics are super inconsistent and when he breaks down, he misses. I think that's fixable with coaching. He's also a gunslinger who trusts his arm way too much. That'll always be there to some degree but that can be worked with too.

He's probably never going to be a high 60% passer but there's no reason he's stuck at 56% for the rest of his career if he's coachable.

 

[AZ_]

The Josh Allen story ends up one of two ways:

He winds up on a team who lets him sit for two full years, can adjust their offense to his skillset and put him in position to succeed.

He winds up in the Top 15, with pressure to play early and disastrous results. Lowering to his floor, which is a giant hole in the center of the Earth.

 

[Lee]

The Josh Allen story ends up one of two ways:

He winds up on a team who lets him sit for two full years, can adjust their offense to his skillset and put him in position to succeed.

He winds up in the Top 15, with pressure to play early and disastrous results. Lowering to his floor, which is a giant hole in the center of the Earth.

Inaccurate college QB's never work out. Too many scouts fall in love with big arms. Ryan Leaf is a perfect example. career 54% completion in college vs Peyton 62.5, but over 60% all 4 years.

Accuracy matters. Ask Derek Anderson.

 

[CBBI]

The Josh Allen story ends up one of two ways:

He winds up on a team who lets him sit for two full years, can adjust their offense to his skillset and put him in position to succeed.

He winds up in the Top 15, with pressure to play early and disastrous results. Lowering to his floor, which is a giant hole in the center of the Earth.

Draft Josh Allen, but also trade for Alex Smith and offer him a contract extension to be the starter for at least the next 2 seasons?

Not what I’d do, but just thinking out loud here.

 

[Spectre]

Inaccurate college QB's never work out. Too many scouts fall in love with big arms. Ryan Leaf is a perfect example. career 54% completion in college vs Peyton 62.5, but over 60% all 4 years.

Ryan Leaf didn't bust because he was inaccurate, he busted because he had a lousy work ethic (which didn't let him improve) and didn't have the right personality handle adversity. He's said all that himself in interviews. Now think of Peyton Manning.

By all accounts Josh Allen is a really good kid who busts his ass. It's the reason he fought back from a shoulder injury to play in some second rate bowl game while other players would've sat out. Evaluating the person is a BIG part of QB evaluation. It can't just be stats.

 

[sportscoach]

You know Allen was playing on the worst team of all the QBs in this draft right? When he wasnt out there, they got beat by San Jose State which only had what one win the entire season overall.

Allen couldn't stay in the pocket all that long since his OLine isn't strong and the offense does run a lot of roll outs anyways. He runs the same system Wentz did in North Dakota as well since they had the same coach. Allen in due time will be good if he is allowed time to develop properly.

 

[AZ_]

Inaccurate college QB's never work out. Too many scouts fall in love with big arms. Ryan Leaf is a perfect example. career 54% completion in college vs Peyton 62.5, but over 60% all 4 years.

Accuracy matters. Ask Derek Anderson.

Matthew Stafford was at 57%, Drew Bledsoe was 54%. Both I think would be pretty good comps for Allen.

Big arm plus good coaching can turn that into a winner.

Will it? Depends on where he ends up.

 

[AZ_]

Draft Josh Allen, but also trade for Alex Smith and offer him a contract extension to be the starter for at least the next 2 seasons?

Not what I’d do, but just thinking out loud here.

If the Browns were picking in the mid-teens, I think this would be a better possibility.

But Rosen is the most polished, NFL-ready QB since Andrew Luck at 21 years old.

It's really a no brainer in the same way Myles Garrett was last year.

The only way that changes is if he says he won't play in Cleveland.

 

[OptimusPrime]

You know Allen was playing on the worst team of all the QBs in this draft right?

This has absolutely nothing to do with any of the criticisms that have been thrown his way. Well, unless winning percentage was one of them, but some people are calling that a strength of his.

 

[getBUCKED]

Just because Mel Kiper decided to try to be relevant again doesn’t mean we have to talk nonsense about drafting Allen #1.

He isn’t relevant at that spot and won’t be the pick. It’s Rosen or Darnold.

 

[Spectre]

The only way that changes is if he says he won't play in Cleveland.

He's said that indirectly and I'm pretty sure he'd say it directly if he were asked (which he will be at the Combine). I've already mentally moved on from him, I just hope we can get something from the Giants if we're prepared to hand him to them.