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2018 NBA Draft - June 21
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Muffinalt
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Im really fucking high on Doncic
I think if he ends up together with LeBron, they will break the league.
MirORich
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How is it possible that guys like Jaren Jackson and Ayton have wingspans of 7’0”, which is great on guys that talk but Mo Bamba has a wingspans full FOOT longer at 8’0”
That’s just insane. But then I guess not unprecedented because both Gobert and Whiteside are listed as having 8’0” wingspans as well. Supposedly McHale had a wingspan out to 8’0” which is impressive being 6’10” in height where most of the other 8’0” wingspan guys are 7 ft or taller.
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gourimoko
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Take no offense; just the other day I mentioned you in a post as being one of my college hoops gurus on RCF... But, I see you have Bamba and Ayton as your 1-2. I also have noted your preference towards big men in the league... Do you think this translates as well today as it did just ten years ago?
Also noted you left off Young? Where do you have him?
Derek
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Last measurements I saw from the Nike Hoops Summit had Bamba at 7'9" and JJJ as next best at 7'4". Ayton wasn't there, but has a 7'6" wingspan according to draftexpress.
MirORich
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By the end of this you are going to be going crazy trying to decide if one of these guys has to be kept or should be traded and who for.
The main key is ID’ing how many you really believe in as elite prospects. For me it’s 5(Porter, Jackson, Bamba, Ayton, Doncic). Bagley I’m on the fence on because I see his floor as a non psychotic Audrey Blatche but I also believe he can be much better than that. I also am intrigued by Young but just don’t see the fit next to LeBron.
So for me, if we get top5, we’re golden. If we get 6, one of Bagley/Young needs to get picked before us. If we get 7, both Bagley/Young need to get picked before us.
That said, there’s a few other solid dudes(Mikel Bridges, Wendell Carter) that while it would be a let down to not get the main guys, are probably still going to be good NBA players
czvo
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But, I see you have Bamba and Ayton as your 1-2. I also have noted your preference towards big men in the league... Do you think this translates as well today as it did just ten years ago?
Also noted you left off Young? Where do you have him?
Yeah, it may seem like I have a preference for bigs, but what I consider it is a preference for bigs that can do guard things on the floor. I LOVED Embiid. Other posters can vouch for that. But the big reason I loved Embiid is he had incredible footwork, could step out and shoot, defend, and otherwise move around like he was 6-8.
The game seems like it's moving smaller and smaller, but I don't think that means bigs are less valuable. I think that makes bigs that can move even MORE valuable. If you're 6-11/7-0 with long arms and you can effectively switch onto guards while protecting the rim and shooting? I mean, come on, that's an easy choice. I think Bamba, Ayton and Jackson are more valuable now because their skills match up with today's game while keeping the measurables that make them unique.
As far as Young is concerned, I added to my previous post. I don't want to bog the thread down with more of my Young thoughts. (But if LeBron is here, Young is like 10th on my list).
MirORich
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Thanks.
Just realized that I’d been citing Wikipedia numbers lol
Draft Express does indeed list Bamba at 7’9” wingspan and JJJ 7’4”
gourimoko
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Cross-posting @Nathan S 's write-up here:
1. Luka Doncic
Pros:
-Efficient volume scorer with a very advanced repertoire of moves for his age. Size and length allows him to get his shot off easily against smaller defenders. Advanced handle puts bigger defenders on skates, allows him to navigate double teams, and makes him very hard to stay in front of in transition. Fairly effective off ball too; combination of size, strength, and reflexes make him effective on the offensive glass.
-Among the best passers of all time for his age. Raw assist numbers dragged down somewhat because he often shares the court with another point guard, but boasts a 2.2:1 assist:TO ratio across all formats this year, a ridiculous mark for a high-usage point guard. Makes advanced passes (no-look, between the legs, behind the back, etc.) look easy. Size allows him to see over the defense and make passes smaller point guards can't. Devastating in the pick & roll.
-Very competitive defender with pretty good fundamentals. Uses his length to get in passing lanes and bother shooters. Played PF for stretches this season after injuries left Real Madrid's frontcourt very thin, and more than held his own on the glass thanks to his hustle and well developed lower body.
-High work ethic. Never afraid of the moment on the court.
Cons:
-Good but not great shooter at this stage. Not super quick getting his shot up off the dribble from behind the arc.
-Limited vertical explosiveness gives shot blockers a chance to contain him when he gets inside (though he's very good at sneaking passes to a big man or a cutter in these situations).
-Defensive upside limited by average lateral quickness. Floorbound defensively in the paint, tries to strip the ball and/or cut off driving lanes, but rarely goes for blocks.
Best case scenario: James Harden/Kevin Love hybrid
2. Jaren Jackson Jr.
Pros:
-Huge shot blocking radius thanks to his long arms and excellent mobility. Remarkable instincts/anticipation for such a young player.
-Surprisingly willing/capable ballhandler for a player his size. Unsurprisingly a great finisher around the rim when he gets there. Tantalizing potential if opponents are forced to respect his jumpshot, as this would make him very difficult to contain.
-Accurate from 3 and from the line in spite of funky mechanics. May take him a while to extend out to NBA range, but clearly has a knack for putting the ball in the basket that sets him apart from most other bigs his age.
-A year young for his class. Should be a high school senior.
Cons:
-Will need to get a little bit stronger to thrive against NBA centers. May struggle with foul trouble, at least initially.
-Jumpshot is an obvious question mark. Sample size not yet large enough from 3 or from the line to rule out the possibility that his hot shooting is (partly) a fluke. Not really a bully in the paint offensively, so his ceiling may be limited if his jumpshot doesn't develop.
Best case scenario: a better defensive version of Chris Bosh
3. Trae Young
Pros:
-Offense built around a deadly off the dribble jumpshot that he can get off very quickly from NBA range and beyond. The combination of this shooting threat and his excellent handle makes him very hard to stay in front of in spite of his average quickness.
-Vision and passing skills give defenses very little margin for error in double teaming and bringing help. Gets good velocity on his passes to open shooters, giving defenders little time to recover.
-Underrated physicality/competitiveness in the paint. Can absorb contact and finish. Very crafty. Will compete for rebounds.
Cons:
-Very raw defensively because Oklahoma actively tries to hide him off the ball whenever possible, both to conserve his energy and because he's not very good. This obviously won't be possible at the NBA level.
-Somewhat below average physical tools defensively. Slightly short arms, and average athleticism. Has a decent knack for playing passing lanes, but doesn't bring much else on that end.
Best case scenario: a score-first version of Steve Nash
4. Michael Porter Jr.
Pros:
-Admittedly haven't watched much of him. Upside as a huge point forward is obvious. Possibly unprecedented combination of size+shooting+passing ability.
-High ceiling defensively thanks to length, athleticism, and IQ.
Cons:
-Difficult to evaluate which of his skills are truly elite and which of his skills are merely good because he hasn't played yet beyond the high school level.
-Old for his year, will turn 20 around draft day.
-Not clear how concerned we should be about his injury.
Best case scenario: a better passing version of Kevin Durant
5. Wendell Carter Jr.
Pros:
-Mobile and cerebral defender. Remarkably fluid athlete on the perimeter at a listed 260 pounds. Could be a beast on the offensive and defensive glass.
-Efficient and versatile offensive player. Long arms and sneaky quickness make him a lob target. Great touch in the post; keeps his head up and has good awareness of where his teammates are when doubleteams come.
-Pretty good looking jumpshot with range out to the college 3-point line. Can handle the ball some too, though he's not particularly quick with the ball.
Cons:
-Just average vertical athleticism. Blocks some shots, but isn't a terrifying presence like Jackson Jr. or Bamba. Surrounded by lackadaisical defenders at Duke, and some bad habits may have rubbed off on him.
-Has the look of a #2/#3 offensively rather than a potential go-to guy.
Best case scenario: Smaller DeMarcus Cousins
..
Very interesting...
So Nathan has
1. Doncic
2. Jackson
3. Young
4. Porter
5. Carter
I find this intriguing for a few reasons, seems almost like the inverse of @czvo 's list based around, I'm guessing, a greater value assigned towards guards/wings (which, I think is understandable).
1. Luka Doncic
Pros:
-Efficient volume scorer with a very advanced repertoire of moves for his age. Size and length allows him to get his shot off easily against smaller defenders. Advanced handle puts bigger defenders on skates, allows him to navigate double teams, and makes him very hard to stay in front of in transition. Fairly effective off ball too; combination of size, strength, and reflexes make him effective on the offensive glass.
-Among the best passers of all time for his age. Raw assist numbers dragged down somewhat because he often shares the court with another point guard, but boasts a 2.2:1 assist:TO ratio across all formats this year, a ridiculous mark for a high-usage point guard. Makes advanced passes (no-look, between the legs, behind the back, etc.) look easy. Size allows him to see over the defense and make passes smaller point guards can't. Devastating in the pick & roll.
-Very competitive defender with pretty good fundamentals. Uses his length to get in passing lanes and bother shooters. Played PF for stretches this season after injuries left Real Madrid's frontcourt very thin, and more than held his own on the glass thanks to his hustle and well developed lower body.
-High work ethic. Never afraid of the moment on the court.
Cons:
-Good but not great shooter at this stage. Not super quick getting his shot up off the dribble from behind the arc.
-Limited vertical explosiveness gives shot blockers a chance to contain him when he gets inside (though he's very good at sneaking passes to a big man or a cutter in these situations).
-Defensive upside limited by average lateral quickness. Floorbound defensively in the paint, tries to strip the ball and/or cut off driving lanes, but rarely goes for blocks.
Best case scenario: James Harden/Kevin Love hybrid
2. Jaren Jackson Jr.
Pros:
-Huge shot blocking radius thanks to his long arms and excellent mobility. Remarkable instincts/anticipation for such a young player.
-Surprisingly willing/capable ballhandler for a player his size. Unsurprisingly a great finisher around the rim when he gets there. Tantalizing potential if opponents are forced to respect his jumpshot, as this would make him very difficult to contain.
-Accurate from 3 and from the line in spite of funky mechanics. May take him a while to extend out to NBA range, but clearly has a knack for putting the ball in the basket that sets him apart from most other bigs his age.
-A year young for his class. Should be a high school senior.
Cons:
-Will need to get a little bit stronger to thrive against NBA centers. May struggle with foul trouble, at least initially.
-Jumpshot is an obvious question mark. Sample size not yet large enough from 3 or from the line to rule out the possibility that his hot shooting is (partly) a fluke. Not really a bully in the paint offensively, so his ceiling may be limited if his jumpshot doesn't develop.
Best case scenario: a better defensive version of Chris Bosh
3. Trae Young
Pros:
-Offense built around a deadly off the dribble jumpshot that he can get off very quickly from NBA range and beyond. The combination of this shooting threat and his excellent handle makes him very hard to stay in front of in spite of his average quickness.
-Vision and passing skills give defenses very little margin for error in double teaming and bringing help. Gets good velocity on his passes to open shooters, giving defenders little time to recover.
-Underrated physicality/competitiveness in the paint. Can absorb contact and finish. Very crafty. Will compete for rebounds.
Cons:
-Very raw defensively because Oklahoma actively tries to hide him off the ball whenever possible, both to conserve his energy and because he's not very good. This obviously won't be possible at the NBA level.
-Somewhat below average physical tools defensively. Slightly short arms, and average athleticism. Has a decent knack for playing passing lanes, but doesn't bring much else on that end.
Best case scenario: a score-first version of Steve Nash
4. Michael Porter Jr.
Pros:
-Admittedly haven't watched much of him. Upside as a huge point forward is obvious. Possibly unprecedented combination of size+shooting+passing ability.
-High ceiling defensively thanks to length, athleticism, and IQ.
Cons:
-Difficult to evaluate which of his skills are truly elite and which of his skills are merely good because he hasn't played yet beyond the high school level.
-Old for his year, will turn 20 around draft day.
-Not clear how concerned we should be about his injury.
Best case scenario: a better passing version of Kevin Durant
5. Wendell Carter Jr.
Pros:
-Mobile and cerebral defender. Remarkably fluid athlete on the perimeter at a listed 260 pounds. Could be a beast on the offensive and defensive glass.
-Efficient and versatile offensive player. Long arms and sneaky quickness make him a lob target. Great touch in the post; keeps his head up and has good awareness of where his teammates are when doubleteams come.
-Pretty good looking jumpshot with range out to the college 3-point line. Can handle the ball some too, though he's not particularly quick with the ball.
Cons:
-Just average vertical athleticism. Blocks some shots, but isn't a terrifying presence like Jackson Jr. or Bamba. Surrounded by lackadaisical defenders at Duke, and some bad habits may have rubbed off on him.
-Has the look of a #2/#3 offensively rather than a potential go-to guy.
Best case scenario: Smaller DeMarcus Cousins
..
Very interesting...
So Nathan has
1. Doncic
2. Jackson
3. Young
4. Porter
5. Carter
I find this intriguing for a few reasons, seems almost like the inverse of @czvo 's list based around, I'm guessing, a greater value assigned towards guards/wings (which, I think is understandable).
Adam
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@gourimoko this is how I break them down for the cavs.
Doncic: he can do it all apart from jump immediate impact and flexible enough to fit in as spot up shooter and pock and roll ball handler. Won't be able to guard 1 in Nba but should be able to switch between 2 and 4 and hold his own.
Bamba: high ceiling has excellent footwork and potential to expand his game out to the perimeter. Should be elite defender in the space of the nba game.
Jaren Jackson Jr: instant 3 and D big. Should fill out and be able to cover the 5 great fit for the cavs. pros pro. Lower ceiling offensively than Bamba
Tre young: his offense straight out the box will be high. Might be IT bad defensively but bron plus shooting is always a good fit
Porter Jr. Brandon Roy but at 6'10 basically.
Guys I'm cool on.
Ayton: question his passion defensive instincts
Bagley: terrible defensively questionable range and empty numbers. Huge motor which makes the rest of it so weird.
Doncic: he can do it all apart from jump immediate impact and flexible enough to fit in as spot up shooter and pock and roll ball handler. Won't be able to guard 1 in Nba but should be able to switch between 2 and 4 and hold his own.
Bamba: high ceiling has excellent footwork and potential to expand his game out to the perimeter. Should be elite defender in the space of the nba game.
Jaren Jackson Jr: instant 3 and D big. Should fill out and be able to cover the 5 great fit for the cavs. pros pro. Lower ceiling offensively than Bamba
Tre young: his offense straight out the box will be high. Might be IT bad defensively but bron plus shooting is always a good fit
Porter Jr. Brandon Roy but at 6'10 basically.
Guys I'm cool on.
Ayton: question his passion defensive instincts
Bagley: terrible defensively questionable range and empty numbers. Huge motor which makes the rest of it so weird.
czvo
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I know these rankings are subjective and it's a matter of opinion... but not having Bamba or Ayton in your top-5 seems like a bannable offense.
@RchfldCavRaised back me up on this lol
@RchfldCavRaised back me up on this lol
gourimoko
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Can you give 2 NBA players as comparative projections for these 3 players? Floor/ceiling?
gourimoko
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Cross-posting @InBoobieWeTrust 's take here:
1: Luka Doncic
I mean...most productive player ever in the EuroLeague...at 18...unbelievably sophisticated game..perfect style for today’s NBA. 6’8 but a point guard for all intents and purposes. Elite vision...Looks to have a great jump shot to make everything else. You know how Ball got billed as having an elite understanding of the game and making others better? I think Doncic is far ahead of him. Plus he can score at will off the bounce, at
The rim, shooting, off screens, off ball. Triple double machine in the making. Just an elite prospect in every sense of the word. A true “can’t miss”. He’s not a leaper and not a great raw athlete but he’s good enough athletically and far too big and too skilled for that to hurt him.
2: DeAndre Ayton
A true physical specimen on the level of young Dwight Howard. Gets knocked for poor shot blocking numbers but I honestly think it’s a bit of an aberration. Just a physically dominant two way Center that is going to be a monster.
3. Marvin Bagley
Elite athlete, stellar offensive talent for a big man. Always manages to find a way to produce. Has defensive knocks and will take more time to develop on that end but it’s not like there’s any physical limitations....Could easily be the best player in the draft and a top 10 player in the NBA and it wouldn’t be surprising to anyone. I just get the sense he has an elite feel for the game and is going to grow leaps and bounds when he plays in the league.
4: Michael Porter Jr
Without the injury I thought he’d be the runaway #1 prospect in the draft. Terrifying injury but if the back checks out, he’s a hyper-athletic 6’10 forward who plays under control, is smooth and glides all over the court and can be an elite shot maker and effortless scorer in the Kevin Durant mold. In today’s NBA this kid could be pure gold. The upside is endless. If he is healthy he will be the best player in this draft. Multiple MVP-type potential. But back surgery at 19 is fucking terrifying....so you better be sure he’s okay.
5. Bamba
Intimidating defensive force physically and mentally. Will be an elite defensive anchor IMO. That’s the floor. Clumsy and lacks assertiveness offensively. Shows flashes of good three point shooting which is a game changer for his potential. Like...saying he’s DeAndre is cool but not exciting. Saying he’s DeAndre but might be able to shoot 40% from
High volume on threes one day? Game changing.
6:7:8: Jackson, Sexton, Young
...
Boobs has no love for Trae Young it seems...
I'm becoming very intrigued by the prospect of Doncic or taking a risk on Michael Porter if we don't win the draft... I wonder, if Porter was healthy, is he simply far and away better than everyone else in this draft, no question?
1: Luka Doncic
I mean...most productive player ever in the EuroLeague...at 18...unbelievably sophisticated game..perfect style for today’s NBA. 6’8 but a point guard for all intents and purposes. Elite vision...Looks to have a great jump shot to make everything else. You know how Ball got billed as having an elite understanding of the game and making others better? I think Doncic is far ahead of him. Plus he can score at will off the bounce, at
The rim, shooting, off screens, off ball. Triple double machine in the making. Just an elite prospect in every sense of the word. A true “can’t miss”. He’s not a leaper and not a great raw athlete but he’s good enough athletically and far too big and too skilled for that to hurt him.
2: DeAndre Ayton
A true physical specimen on the level of young Dwight Howard. Gets knocked for poor shot blocking numbers but I honestly think it’s a bit of an aberration. Just a physically dominant two way Center that is going to be a monster.
3. Marvin Bagley
Elite athlete, stellar offensive talent for a big man. Always manages to find a way to produce. Has defensive knocks and will take more time to develop on that end but it’s not like there’s any physical limitations....Could easily be the best player in the draft and a top 10 player in the NBA and it wouldn’t be surprising to anyone. I just get the sense he has an elite feel for the game and is going to grow leaps and bounds when he plays in the league.
4: Michael Porter Jr
Without the injury I thought he’d be the runaway #1 prospect in the draft. Terrifying injury but if the back checks out, he’s a hyper-athletic 6’10 forward who plays under control, is smooth and glides all over the court and can be an elite shot maker and effortless scorer in the Kevin Durant mold. In today’s NBA this kid could be pure gold. The upside is endless. If he is healthy he will be the best player in this draft. Multiple MVP-type potential. But back surgery at 19 is fucking terrifying....so you better be sure he’s okay.
5. Bamba
Intimidating defensive force physically and mentally. Will be an elite defensive anchor IMO. That’s the floor. Clumsy and lacks assertiveness offensively. Shows flashes of good three point shooting which is a game changer for his potential. Like...saying he’s DeAndre is cool but not exciting. Saying he’s DeAndre but might be able to shoot 40% from
High volume on threes one day? Game changing.
6:7:8: Jackson, Sexton, Young
...
Boobs has no love for Trae Young it seems...
I'm becoming very intrigued by the prospect of Doncic or taking a risk on Michael Porter if we don't win the draft... I wonder, if Porter was healthy, is he simply far and away better than everyone else in this draft, no question?
Adam
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Doncic: ceiling: best European of all time. Harden with elite rebounding
Floor: Shawn Livingston with 3 point range/bigger Malcolm brogdan but with elite passing/ hedo turkaglu
Bamba ceiling: mutombo with offense and 70+% FT and 35+%from 3
Floor: gobert
Jaren Jackson Jr. Ceiling: tall Draymond with better shooting and less of a bitch
Floor: TT with 3 Point shot
I like them a lot. Each is unique with JJJ almost building his entire game for the modern NBA championship contending teams with Spacing and defense