2018 NBA Draft - June 21

[blommen]

@gourimoko I'll give my limited analysis of the top guys with the caveat that I've spent the majority of my time watching Jaren Jackson as I feel he's the best option we have a realistic chance of picking up with where the Nets pick probably lands.

1. Doncic: Basketball savant in every sense of the word. The game comes naturally to him and he has a brilliant mind for it. He's not an explosive athlete on either side of the ball but makes up for it by being smart as a whip. For that reason I have a hard time comparing him to Harden who is a tremendous athlete and very quick. I think a somewhat conservative comparison is to a guy like prime Ginobili, only not as fast but with a much better shot. His biggest strength, apart from the natural affinity for the game, is his passion. His work ethic is incredible and you can trust that he won't wither under the bright lights.

2. Ayton: Defensive struggles and mental getup aside... I mean, just look at his body for christ sakes. The guy looks like Hercules and he is still a teenager. He moves very well for how big he is and has a servicable mid range game. However, while he has had games where he was more aggressive in getting to the paint, he does have an annoying tendency to fall back on his mid range game, which is infuriating considering how much of a physical specimen he is. His defense is mediocre, if not downright embarrassing considering his physical tools, and could be taken as confirmation of the reports that he doesn't really have the fire in his belly you'd want from a lottery pick. I do think he could adopt the correct mindset if he's put in the right environment with the righ veterans around him, but it's something to keep in mind going forward. As for comparisons... I have a hard time remembering a player with his physical profile and athleticism coming into the league and I honestly think his ceilling is the highest of any player in the lottery, but his floor is also one of the lowest.

3. Jackson: Look, I am probably not the most level headed evaluator of Jaren Jackson Jr at this point, so take what I say with a pinch of salt. That being said, Jaren Jackson Jr is probably the best modern big man prospect in the entire draft. He has the foot speed to guard 1-5 on the perimeter, he has the length to protect the rim and a terrific knack for timing his blocks, he is a rock solid 80% free throw shooter which seems to indicate that his 3 point range will have a good chance of translating to the pros, and he is quick enough with the ball in his hands to beat other bigs off the dribble in a straight line to the hoop. On top of all that he's got the fire in his belly that you'd want to see in Ayton. The kid just works his ASS off on defense and for being a full year younger than his peers he is tremendously advanced on that end. While there are questions to be had regarding his shooting form, he absolutely strikes me as a player who can be an efficient floor spacer and he has shown enough raw potential with the ball in his hands, that you can envision him developing a pretty damn good face up game. Negatives? he's still very young and unpolished in a lot of ways, and he will probably end up in foul troubble more than a few times during his rookie season and throw away a couple of possessions to boot. The offensive potential is there but it will probably take him a couple of seasons to fully turn in to anything more than a floor spacer. Defensively he's already a difference maker and a future DPOY candidate guaranteed. Comparisons would be somewhere along the lines of Draymond Green with Al Horfords length and offensive potential.

4. Bamba: I feel like there's a pretty argument to be made about Mo Bamba being the biggest physical freak of the draft ahead of Ayton. at 7' with an absolutely stupid 7'9'' reach and great leaping ability It honestly feels like Bamba could jump up and block the shot clock if he wanted to. Furthermore, he has an uncanny ability to generate steals with those giant arms, and he generally seems to have very good control of his extremeties, beside being so long. He has shown the ability to guard smaller players on the perimeter, but he doesn't quite have Jackson's ability there and I'm not certain he will ever be consistent at it. In many ways that's where his ceilling stands and falls, in my opinion. If he figures out how to use his quickness on the perimeter he will become an absolutely once in a decade type defender, but if he doesn't he will have to settle for monstrous rim protector. On top of that he has a pretty nice shooting form, even if it doesn't translate into makes very often. The potential is there for him to become a good 3 point shooter at the very least. He has put the ball on the floor a couple of times in college and done well but that is mostly due to his athleticism than his ball handling, and I don't think he will ever be a player you can count on to get you a bucket out of an isolation play, be it in the post or on the perimeter. That said, beautiful shooting mechanics that could turn into actual productive shooting and possibly era defining defensive play makes him a damn good 4th pick. Comparisons? think an athletic Rudy Gobert.

5. Porter (health is a concern but the offensive upside and athleticism is hard to overlook. think of 6'10'' Brandon Roy)
6. Bagley (tremendous athlete and good post game, but defensive ineptitude, inability to create on the perimeter and lack of range makes him seem like the antithesis of a modern NBA player. He will probably get tons of points and rebounds but I doubt he will be playing winning basketball any time soon)
7. Young (sniper like range and handles and great playmaking is all well and good, but he is small and unathletic enough that I think he will have big problems producing in the pros.)

 

[Nathan S]

I think Ayton's sort of similar to Drummond as a prospect. Their strengths were/are very different, of course, but they're both physical freaks with big strengths and equally big weaknesses. Drummond turned out to be a pretty good player, and maybe Ayton will too, but it's a huge role of the dice to draft a guy like that in the top-5, especially in such a loaded draft.

 

[Futuredome]

I think Ayton's sort of similar to Drummond as a prospect. Their strengths were/are very different, of course, but they're both physical freaks with big strengths and equally big weaknesses. Drummond turned out to be a pretty good player, and maybe Ayton will too, but it's a huge role of the dice to draft a guy like that in the top-5, especially in such a loaded draft.

Drummond's bad defense is why the Piston's are always scratching to make the playoffs. A pretty good player he is not.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Drummond's bad defense is why the Piston's are always scratching to make the playoffs. A pretty good player he is not.

Check his defensive metrics again.

Kinda crazy to say that Drummond isn't even a pretty good player, pretty, pretty crazy.

 

[Nathan S]

Drummond's bad defense is why the Piston's are always scratching to make the playoffs. A pretty good player he is not.

I'm not here to quibble about precisely how good Drummond is. I'm just saying it's never as simple as "once he figures it out, he'll be the best center in the league because he's so big and athletic!" What if he never figures it out? Probably 99% of players never reach their "full potential" as defined by their size and athleticism.

 

[MirORich]

Imagine Drummond on this team right now.

I mean, that's not an argument to take Ayton over someone who could be even better than that, but just saying if we're at 6 or 7 and Ayton was somehow still there, that'd still be pretty great.

 

[blommen]

Imagine Drummond on this team right now.

I mean, that's not an argument to take Ayton over someone who could be even better than that, but just saying if we're at 6 or 7 and Ayton was somehow still there, that'd still be pretty great.

I think Aytons upside and athleticism all but ensures that he goes top 2 at this point, maybe top 3. Guys who might fall out of the top 5 would probably someone like Jackson or MPJ if his health is too big of a risk to some people. A lot of this also comes down to how the lottery teams rate a guy like Young or maybe even Collin Sexton, though that's admittedly a pretty big reach.

 

[Nathan S]

Imagine Drummond on this team right now.

I mean, that's not an argument to take Ayton over someone who could be even better than that, but just saying if we're at 6 or 7 and Ayton was somehow still there, that'd still be pretty great.

Sure, and I agree, I'd think hard about taking him if he's still around at that point. It's just hard to convince myself to pass up on all these other guys who will be able to contribute positively in immediate, obvious ways, and who have superstar upside in their own right. I can't get excited about slowing down the offense to get Ayton his post ups, dealing with his on-and-off intensity, and waiting for him to learn how to play defense.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

Would a good comparison for Bamba be healthy Joel Embiid?

 

[blommen]

Would a good comparison for Bamba be healthy Joel Embiid?

In my opinion, no. He doesn't have nearly the same flair for the offensive side of the ball as Embiid, but he is way quicker and more athletic and he absolutely can be the same type of defensive pressence. There are some question marks as to how much passion he plays with, and I don't know that he's got the same type of fire that Embiid has, so that's something else to consider.

 

[MD13]

Cross-posting @Nathan S 's write-up here:

1. Luka Doncic

Pros:

-Efficient volume scorer with a very advanced repertoire of moves for his age. Size and length allows him to get his shot off easily against smaller defenders. Advanced handle puts bigger defenders on skates, allows him to navigate double teams, and makes him very hard to stay in front of in transition. Fairly effective off ball too; combination of size, strength, and reflexes make him effective on the offensive glass.

-Among the best passers of all time for his age. Raw assist numbers dragged down somewhat because he often shares the court with another point guard, but boasts a 2.2:1 assist:TO ratio across all formats this year, a ridiculous mark for a high-usage point guard. Makes advanced passes (no-look, between the legs, behind the back, etc.) look easy. Size allows him to see over the defense and make passes smaller point guards can't. Devastating in the pick & roll.

-Very competitive defender with pretty good fundamentals. Uses his length to get in passing lanes and bother shooters. Played PF for stretches this season after injuries left Real Madrid's frontcourt very thin, and more than held his own on the glass thanks to his hustle and well developed lower body.

-High work ethic. Never afraid of the moment on the court.

Cons:

-Good but not great shooter at this stage. Not super quick getting his shot up off the dribble from behind the arc.

-Limited vertical explosiveness gives shot blockers a chance to contain him when he gets inside (though he's very good at sneaking passes to a big man or a cutter in these situations).

-Defensive upside limited by average lateral quickness. Floorbound defensively in the paint, tries to strip the ball and/or cut off driving lanes, but rarely goes for blocks.


Best case scenario: James Harden/Kevin Love hybrid


2. Jaren Jackson Jr.

Pros:

-Huge shot blocking radius thanks to his long arms and excellent mobility. Remarkable instincts/anticipation for such a young player.

-Surprisingly willing/capable ballhandler for a player his size. Unsurprisingly a great finisher around the rim when he gets there. Tantalizing potential if opponents are forced to respect his jumpshot, as this would make him very difficult to contain.

-Accurate from 3 and from the line in spite of funky mechanics. May take him a while to extend out to NBA range, but clearly has a knack for putting the ball in the basket that sets him apart from most other bigs his age.

-A year young for his class. Should be a high school senior.

Cons:

-Will need to get a little bit stronger to thrive against NBA centers. May struggle with foul trouble, at least initially.

-Jumpshot is an obvious question mark. Sample size not yet large enough from 3 or from the line to rule out the possibility that his hot shooting is (partly) a fluke. Not really a bully in the paint offensively, so his ceiling may be limited if his jumpshot doesn't develop.


Best case scenario: a better defensive version of Chris Bosh


3. Trae Young

Pros:

-Offense built around a deadly off the dribble jumpshot that he can get off very quickly from NBA range and beyond. The combination of this shooting threat and his excellent handle makes him very hard to stay in front of in spite of his average quickness.

-Vision and passing skills give defenses very little margin for error in double teaming and bringing help. Gets good velocity on his passes to open shooters, giving defenders little time to recover.

-Underrated physicality/competitiveness in the paint. Can absorb contact and finish. Very crafty. Will compete for rebounds.

Cons:

-Very raw defensively because Oklahoma actively tries to hide him off the ball whenever possible, both to conserve his energy and because he's not very good. This obviously won't be possible at the NBA level.

-Somewhat below average physical tools defensively. Slightly short arms, and average athleticism. Has a decent knack for playing passing lanes, but doesn't bring much else on that end.


Best case scenario: a score-first version of Steve Nash


4. Michael Porter Jr.

Pros:

-Admittedly haven't watched much of him. Upside as a huge point forward is obvious. Possibly unprecedented combination of size+shooting+passing ability.

-High ceiling defensively thanks to length, athleticism, and IQ.

Cons:

-Difficult to evaluate which of his skills are truly elite and which of his skills are merely good because he hasn't played yet beyond the high school level.

-Old for his year, will turn 20 around draft day.

-Not clear how concerned we should be about his injury.


Best case scenario: a better passing version of Kevin Durant


5. Wendell Carter Jr.

Pros:

-Mobile and cerebral defender. Remarkably fluid athlete on the perimeter at a listed 260 pounds. Could be a beast on the offensive and defensive glass.

-Efficient and versatile offensive player. Long arms and sneaky quickness make him a lob target. Great touch in the post; keeps his head up and has good awareness of where his teammates are when doubleteams come.

-Pretty good looking jumpshot with range out to the college 3-point line. Can handle the ball some too, though he's not particularly quick with the ball.

Cons:

-Just average vertical athleticism. Blocks some shots, but isn't a terrifying presence like Jackson Jr. or Bamba. Surrounded by lackadaisical defenders at Duke, and some bad habits may have rubbed off on him.

-Has the look of a #2/#3 offensively rather than a potential go-to guy.


Best case scenario: Smaller DeMarcus Cousins

..

Very interesting...

So Nathan has
1. Doncic
2. Jackson
3. Young
4. Porter
5. Carter

I find this intriguing for a few reasons, seems almost like the inverse of @czvo 's list based around, I'm guessing, a greater value assigned towards guards/wings (which, I think is understandable).

Gour, I think the big litmus test in this year's draft is where you fall on the production vs traits/potential argument. There are some guys with unheard-of production but somewhat limited physical tools (Doncic, although I'd argue he's at least slightly above average) and Trae Young (who falls into the trap of being small and not extremely fast). On the other hand, you have guys who haven't quite put it together although they are still producing at an extremely high level in Ayton (right up there with the most athletic center prospects ever) and Bamba (video game wingspan and the lateral agility to guard 1-5 if he gets his tehnique down).

On top of that you have the big mystery box in Porter Jr, and a guy in Bagley who would be a no doubt top 3 pick if this class was coming out in 1995. Now, people look at his inconsistent jump shot and possible lack of a true position on defense and knock him down a few pegs.

Jackson Jr seems to fit a nice medium where he does a lot of really nice, translatable things to the NBA and has good production now, but doesn't quite have the freakshow physical gifts that the others do.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

I feel like I should be offended for not being in this list, but I have been slacking compared to the tank years lol. I would also just search every post @3 Ball...GOT IT has made in this thread. He's doing the Lord's work with this draft.

As for my opinion, I'm basing it on LeBron being back. The top of this draft is so good, it's hard to go with a firm 1-5 as I think a lot of them are close.

1. Mo Bamba - dude is built like Rudy Gobert, can put the ball on the floor a little bit, step out and shoot, protect the rim... the guy is freaking amazing. He needs to put on weight, but the more I watch him, the more I'm convinced that he's the unicorn of this draft. Just look up his TCU highlights. Actually, here you go:



2. DeAndre Ayton - he doesn't quite have the defensive instincts of Bamba, but he's a little more polished offensively and he's jacked. Not sure you can really go wrong with Ayton or Bamba, to be honest. However, I give Bamba the nod because he's improving at an incredible rate. Reminds me a little of how quickly Embiid improved throughout the season.


3. Jaren Jackson Jr. - think TT with longer arms, quicker feet, better shot blocking ability and a decent jumper. He's shown he can hit the three at an acceptable rate, though I'm not a huge fan of his form. He doesn't have the measurables of the other two, hence why he's here.


4. Luka Doncic - to be perfectly honest, I haven't watched a ton of him. But what I've seen, he seems to have a really high BBIQ and an ability to play on and off the ball. Based on what I've seen from Cedi, he seems like a supercharged version of him but he can shoot, run the PnR and dribble.


5. Michael Porter Jr. - if his back checks out, I think his ceiling is Kevin Durant. Not that he'll reach it, but that's how good I think he can be. He's 6-10, but he moves like he's 6-4. He's got a sweet shooting stroke and just enough off the dribble creativity. I really, REALLY hope he plays a few games for Mizzou just so we can all get a look at him.


Just on the outside: Bagley, Carter, Sexton, Mikal Bridges


(As you have probably noticed, no Trae Young. I won't go into a long diatribe about why I don't want him, I've done that in this thread and others. I will add this to my argument against him: if LeBron sticks around, this organization FINALLY has the chance to do something we've always wanted from them. We know LeBron is at his best when surrounded with athletes who can shoot/a big that can protect the rim. Well, THIS draft is the chance to do that. Bamba, Ayton, Doncic, Jackson and Porter all fit either the big wing that can shoot or big that can protect the rim and space the floor. WHY, with all those options, would we want the team to limit themselves again with a small point guard that can't defend and is better with the ball? Just doesn't make sense to me.)

Haha thanks man, I appreciate that and have enjoyed your discussion and all of the regulars in here too. Haven't had as much time to post lately as I'd like, but I've tried to stay up to date.

Have really enjoyed that there's a good handful of posters in here that all know what they're talking about with the draft and can back up their opinions without getting offended. It's great that this thread is getting some more action. I'm sure the uncertainty surrounding whether the Cavs would keep the BKN pick has kind of kept this from being one of the more popular threads on here. I imagine it'll continue to pick up steam lol.

I've somewhat avoided posting rankings much because I'm on the fence so damn often with these guys, but if the draft were tonight and I were the Cavs (and assuming that it's 50/50 that LeBron stays), my board would be:

1. Luka Doncic - First off, his skillset kind of straddles the fence between being able to help both now and in the future. It's super early to judge the current Cavs' roster, but I would suspect that the Cavs would find themselves in need of a little bit more shot creation next season. Luka would be able to do that when necessary, but would also be able to play off the ball if LeBron were to stay. However, if LeBron would left, you'd have no hesitation giving him free reign over your offense. Assuming LeBron were to STAY, one of the biggest benefits the Cavs would get is the shot creation that I mentioned earlier. We'll see what Hill/Hood/Clarkson can do, but again I suspect they may desire a bit more there. We all know how important shooting is with LeBron, and Doncic would be able to provide enough of that. The amount of attention that LeBron receives would put Doncic in a position that he's probably never had before, being able to attack a scrambling defense off the catch. I also think he's versatile enough defensively to not get picked on in a playoff series too badly. Would worry about teams going against Doncic-Love pick and rolls during the postseason though.

I've also brought this up in here awhile ago, but Doncic also plays with a ton of energy defensively. We've seen first hand just how much having one high-energy defender can affect a team. I've been dying for TLue to try Cedi in the starting line-up, even if it meant only playing at the start of halves - just to give the team a boost of energy at the start of the game and 3Q, where they had struggled. You're seeing that now. Guys will involuntarily match that energy level without even thinking about it. Lastly, I think Doncic probably has the highest basketball IQ in the draft. I wouldn't be worried about him shelling up during his first postseason whatsoever. He's the clear #1 to me right now.

2. Jaren Jackson Jr: I don't think I'm quite as high on JJJ as some people in here, but am still higher on him than the overall consensus. With LeBron, all he'd have to do offensively is stand in the corner and wait for catch and shoot opportunities. That's a role that Kevin Love has largely assumed during his time here - so who knows, maybe a sneaky positive of having Jackson is getting Love a little more involved on offense beyond his obligatory 1Q post touch he gets lmao. His offensive game is extremely raw, and so the Cavs would present an ideal situation for him. People shit on Tristan's offensive abilities all the time, but those same people probably don't remember just how bad he was his rookie year. Never seen someone get stuffed at the rim more often. Now he does just enough of what the team needs. There's not many other places to look for recent big man development in the recent Cavs history beside TT. Defensively this guy would be ridiculous on the Cavs. The energy talk above applies here too for JJJ in my opinion. In the postseason the Cavs would have their own "death-lineup" with Hill, JR (shrug), Osman, LeBron, and Jackson. If LeBron doesn't fall off much, that lineup would be solid enough offensively while being pretty difficult to score on. They'd be able to switch everything against a large portion of teams. I think Hill and Cedi have enough length to at least bother bigs when needed. And JJJ is as versatile as it gets defensively from a big.

The biggest downside with JJJ is the risk that LeBron leaves. Not sure how far, but I'd bump him down a few spots on just my normal draft board. The flashes are there, but his offense is extremely far from being reliable on its own. His offensive skill set is extremely dependent on others putting him in advantageous situations - which is okay, but when you look at the other guys available at the top of this draft, it's a pretty big contrast. Also, he's still only 18 and still has a ways to go with gaining a feel for the game. I know alot has been made about his foul rate, and while I think it is a solid indicator that he's always playing hard, he still has work to do on the defensive end. For example, he's not very disciplined IMO... he falls for fakes with regularity. I have no doubt that he'll become a defensive star, but I can't say with certainty that he's there yet - and that's a big deal for me if I'm trying to win right now with LeBron

3. Mo Bamba: I'm going to sound like a broken record, because it's the case with all of these top guys for the most part, but I feel like you'd be taking a pretty big risk here. First off, I don't think Bamba's role or outlook looks much different whether LeBron stays or leaves. Also, where I'd have Bamba is also contingent on whatever intel that I could get on his work ethic and whatnot. He can definitely float out there, and would need to feel confident that it's more of "boredom of NCAA basketball" than just a guy who doesn't care. With LeBron, he'd probably have 4 or 5 dunks a game. The spaced out NBA floor will help him so much, and playing alongside KLove achieves that. His catch radius is ridiculous, and he's obviously got huge hands. I wish Texas ran more P&R, but I say that about pretty much every NCAA team lol. With a quality ball handler, I expect Bamba to be an elite rim roller. I think he can develop a corner 3 as well... enough to give Love space on post-ups as well as open driving lanes. The trio of LeBron-Love-Bamba would be very difficult to stop on the glass as well (as is the case with most of the other bigs in the lottery this year). Defensively not a ton needs to be said that hasn't been already. It purely comes down to effort on that end for me.

As far as cons go, I think there's some bust potential there. He's been invisible FAR less often lately, so that gives me some hope, but I'd be worried about his mental makeup all the way until he's a few months into his first season and had a good feel for him. Mentality is just so important for a rim protector IMO, and that's why I'd have Ayton a little lower than most (which again would be different if it wasn't my Cavs board).

4. Mikal Bridges: This will throw some people for a loop unless they've seen me post about him a million times already. If there's anything we'll learn from these recent trades, it's just how important having athletic 3&D wings is alongside of LeBron. This would give the Cavs some flexibility with re-signing Hood, as well as getting JR Smith less minutes.

Positives - Where can I start. Everything that he would be asked to do offensively and defensively he can do, and do well. His strengths and weaknesses match up perfectly with this team. He can catch and shoot threes very well and can attack closeouts. I think people have it stuck in their minds from early in the season that he has no offensive game off of the dribble. I think he's at least solid in that area already. Again, the spaced out NBA floor will help him there IMO. Defensively, he's extremely versatile and can play multiple positions. He navigates screens extremely well, has the length to guard some of the bigger 3's in the league to give LBJ a rest, and also plays with the much needed energy from the wing spot.

Negatives - again, taking a huge risk on LeBron staying. During the draft process there's a decent change I'd move Bridges down some, just out of fear that he leaves, and going for a guy that can sort of straddle the fence as I mentioned earlier. Beyond that with LeBron I'm honestly having a tough time finding weaknesses lol. He is what he is. He's older, but the guy improves every single year and is constantly praised for his work ethic. I'll continue to monitor his shooting, as the 50%+ we saw earlier this year isn't legit. He could also gain just a little bit of weight to handle some small ball 4s.

5. DeAndre Ayton: This one's tough for me, because I really like Ayton. On my regular board I'd have him 2 or 3 probably. I just don't think he lines up well with the current Cavs squad. If he shows the ability to consistently make weakside rotations and be a defensive anchor during the rest of the NCAA season, then he'd be way higher for me on this Cavs board. But he's far from that. With LeBron he'd provide quality rebounding and another go-to scoring option - something they probably need. Similar to Bamba, he'll be close to impossible to stop as a rim runner.

The lack of rim protection is the dealbreaker for me. I don't think that he'll be a positive defender when he's first in the league just due to the importance of that skill at his position. Sure he can switch some in late-clock situation, but those skills aren't applied as often throughout a game. His overall play can get pretty lackadaisical - and that to me is playing with fire during the regular season next to LeBron.



Also, I've gotta talk about Michael Porter Jr. I'm dying for this guy to come back. I think his shooting is a bit overhyped, but if I'm wrong and he's a 38-40% shooter from the NCAA line, then he'd be #2 or #3 for me on this list. He's another guy that could be useful for the Cavs with or without LeBron. A skillset that can be built around, but can also play a lesser role.


Sorry for the long post. I know this question comes up alot, so now I'll have it to copy and paste until my opinion changes a week from now lmao.

 

[Nathan S]

I didn't watch it, but I take it that was a Trae Young ↓ Zhaire Smith ↑↑↑ kind of game?

 

[MD13]

View: https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/status/963597597528256512

 

[MirORich]