2018 NBA Draft - June 21

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

David Flemming and Dan Dakich have been positively drooling over Jackson each time they've been commentating on MSU games this year. Flemming threw out a comp he had from an NBA guy - Rasheed Wallace of all people.

Terrible comparison and they need to stop drooling so he slips.

 

[blommen]

Terrible comparison and they need to stop drooling so he slips.

As long as he slips out of the top 5 and into our hands I'm fine with the drooling.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

My top 4 wont change for the rest of the season, no matter what happens come tourney time.

Bamba, Ayton, Porter, Jackson.

Jaren Jackson: As of right now, in that order. But that order could change if I dont get to see Porter at the NCAA level at all and Jackson KEEPS showing this goddamn improvement like he is. SHIT! I watched him all night and he is threatening to leap over Ayton as well. Sean Miller has never been known to develop players for pros and Tom Izzo is the absolute opposite of that, so as the season wears on, I'm seeing marginal "natureal" development from Ayton while Jackson is getting a PhD from Izzo's handling.

I read through some posts in here from Gour getting caught up, and I cant cite them as I am in a meeting and sneaking to post, but I do want to dispel one errant notion that is starting to take hold...

Michael Porter Jr is not Kevin Durant like. KD developed his outside shot MORE and showed the ability to use it as much because of his slight build early in his development. MPJ doesnt have the slight build, so his shot is nothing close to the art that KD's was even early, he hasnt really developed a off the bounce outside shot like young KD. Instead, MJP has this sick as hell step back that he uses to create separation from big guys and he simply goes over the top of little guys. Remember that step back move that Kyrie used to cook Brandin Knight at the Rookie game? MPJ has perfected that from 15-18 ft like a layup. In all other facets of the game, he is Ben Simmons. So imagine Ben Simmons with a really reliable midrange scoring game.

Trae Young: If watching Bron play with George Hill, Jordan Clarkson, Kyrie Irving, Mario Chalmers, Norris Cole, Dellavadova in his exhaustion game doesnt further cement a truth to you about what is best SYNNERGY for the way LeBron plays the game of basketball. Guards who play with Bron need to be able to do one of two things: 1. really good at scoring off the ball or creating for themselves (Kyrie, Clarkson) OR 2. defending the initiator like a pitbull and knocking down open shots (Hill, Chalmers, Dellavadova, Cole). Trae Young needs the ball in his hands to maximize his impact on a court just like Isaiah Thomas, Trae Young also needs an entire team committed to covering for his total lack of ability to impact the game on defense. Please, dont do this. More recently as the conference coaches are breaking down tape and gameplanning of their second look at him, he is looking very mediocre and like he is just relying on irrational long range shooting for his scoring. Which I expected earlier in the season but its taking hold now.

Bagley: I dont like him. He has Derrick Coleman in him. All the talent/tools and mark my words, he doesnt have it inside. The concerns many have with Ayton, I think are overblown with Ayton not being iwth a good developmental coach. Bagley doesnt have that excuse with Coach K. You had concerns once we reached this part of the season and it became clear Jahlil Okafor wasnt as passionate or driven to diversify his game. Well, say hello to Bagley as well.

Doncic: I like his brain, I like his size, I like his overall basketball pedigree. I dont like his athletic limitations or his swiss army knife approach to balling in the Euro's. He should be expected to blow by, finish over and through guys over there if we think he's going to be better than the Turkoglus, Kukuc's and Peja's. He doesnt have the size to be the Euro unicorns that Dirk and KP are. So he needs to make up for that with crazy athleticism and blow by speed. Doesnt have it. What I see, is more Paul Pierce and Antoine Walker (before Pierce). A scoring/playmaking 4 who wont be able to stick with elite 3's. No thanks. That is what LeBron will best as over the next 4 yrs.

Bamba VS Ayton: Ayton is so tantalizing, but I cant get over how stagnant he can look at times and how he isnt being coached to develop his weaknesses just like Derrick Williams under Sean Miller. A really good coach like Izzo would have Ayton unquestionably the top pick in this draft. Which leads me to really appreciate Shaka and what he is doing with Bamba. He and JJ are neck and neck for me with how much they've both developed as pro prospects this season, but Bamba has the ridiculous physical tools to be a generational talent on defense right now and scary on offense as he matures. These two guys are probably going 1 & 2 on draft night after everyone watches Embiid and Gobert pull off upsets to get their teams to the second round (If Utah gets anyone other than GS, HOU watchout... they will upset a SAS, MIN). Basketball is cyclical and the big man is back after a 5 year run on little guys being overvalued. Bamba is the generational player in this draft and Jackson is the next best thing, with Porter and Anton both having variables that could make them the best prospects or top 4 in this class.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Oh shit... Synergy is fucking amazing. I know everything about the world now.

It's too much information to process, I think i'm going to blow up or something.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

I don't have a legitimate counter so I'll follow up that rchfldcavraised greatness with the sarcasm of a preteen girl

Great contribution

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Great contribution

whats the difference between a preteen girl and a teen girl? I was always told I was more of the latter.

I liked your post though and I agree with almost everything, it was an awesome post... no need to shit on me you piece of shit.

 

[blommen]

Question to the Doncic skeptics: how much of his athletic deficiencies would be alleviated by simply playing him at the PG spot and have him use his size instead of having him try to keep up with the freak athletes you'd find at the wing position?

 

[Muffinalt]

4. Mikal Bridges: This will throw some people for a loop unless they've seen me post about him a million times already. If there's anything we'll learn from these recent trades, it's just how important having athletic 3&D wings is alongside of LeBron. This would give the Cavs some flexibility with re-signing Hood, as well as getting JR Smith less minutes.

Positives - Where can I start. Everything that he would be asked to do offensively and defensively he can do, and do well. His strengths and weaknesses match up perfectly with this team. He can catch and shoot threes very well and can attack closeouts. I think people have it stuck in their minds from early in the season that he has no offensive game off of the dribble. I think he's at least solid in that area already. Again, the spaced out NBA floor will help him there IMO. Defensively, he's extremely versatile and can play multiple positions. He navigates screens extremely well, has the length to guard some of the bigger 3's in the league to give LBJ a rest, and also plays with the much needed energy from the wing spot.

Negatives - again, taking a huge risk on LeBron staying. During the draft process there's a decent change I'd move Bridges down some, just out of fear that he leaves, and going for a guy that can sort of straddle the fence as I mentioned earlier. Beyond that with LeBron I'm honestly having a tough time finding weaknesses lol. He is what he is. He's older, but the guy improves every single year and is constantly praised for his work ethic. I'll continue to monitor his shooting, as the 50%+ we saw earlier this year isn't legit. He could also gain just a little bit of weight to handle some small ball 4s.

Love Mikal too if we're picking outside top 5 (id take him over Bagley easily). Its funny but I see in him a Rodney Hood with George Hill's defense and arms.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

Question to the Doncic skeptics: how much of his athletic deficiencies would be alleviated by simply playing him at the PG spot and have him use his size instead of having him try to keep up with the freak athletes you'd find at the wing position?

Your position has always been determined by who you are capable of guarding. It's the reason that even though Simmons starts at PG for Philly, they play McConnell 25-30 mins a night and to close games until Benjamin learns to shoot a FT or guard someone shorter than 6'5.

He's having trouble separating from guys in Euro, so he's going to need to use his craftiness and size to do that with 2x the athletes and speed of game here. I've watched 2 complete games and chunks of others for him and I havent had the same concerns with his D, but that's because he's always on the court with 4 grown men who are all committed to defense by committee.

He could be a terrible defender of 1's and 2's or he could be solid and hold his own. We wont know until he's over here, unfortunately.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

I liked your post though and I agree with almost everything, it was an awesome post... no need to shit on me you piece of shit.

I actually laughed at your sarcasm (I rated it funny, and I'm stingy with my rates), and I noticed you liked my post, so I thought we had a little "slapstick" thing going. The changing the quote thing was my funny, to your funny.

Somewhere this went wrong on Valentines Day and now Im probably sleeping on the couch.

 

[Nathan S]

Your position has always been determined by who you are capable of guarding. It's the reason that even though Simmons starts at PG for Philly, they play McConnell 25-30 mins a night and to close games until Benjamin learns to shoot a FT or guard someone shorter than 6'5.

He's having trouble separating from guys in Euro, so he's going to need to use his craftiness and size to do that with 2x the athletes and speed of game here. I've watched 2 complete games and chunks of others for him and I havent had the same concerns with his D, but that's because he's always on the court with 4 grown men who are all committed to defense by committee.

He could be a terrible defender of 1's and 2's or he could be solid and hold his own. We wont know until he's over here, unfortunately.

I think you're underestimating the extent to which his passing will open up the game for him. He's not just a good passer "for a wing" like Pierce, Walker, etc. He's a good passer even relative to other elite point guard prospects of the modern era. And his size makes it easy to surround him with a roll man and three shooters and let him go to work.

 

[Photon]

You have to consider Doncic IS Real’s offense, he appears to approach defense as does LeBron, he takes plays off. Watch him play for the national team with Dragić, a lot better. In the final as long as he covered Bogdanović (Sacramento) he couldn’t do shit, Doncic goes down, Bogdan explodes.
On offense the main problem is every team just cloggs the paint so he has to navigate trough that and the court is smaller.

And Facundo Campazzo is shit.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Your position has always been determined by who you are capable of guarding. It's the reason that even though Simmons starts at PG for Philly, they play McConnell 25-30 mins a night and to close games until Benjamin learns to shoot a FT or guard someone shorter than 6'5.

He's having trouble separating from guys in Euro, so he's going to need to use his craftiness and size to do that with 2x the athletes and speed of game here. I've watched 2 complete games and chunks of others for him and I havent had the same concerns with his D, but that's because he's always on the court with 4 grown men who are all committed to defense by committee.

He could be a terrible defender of 1's and 2's or he could be solid and hold his own. We wont know until he's over here, unfortunately.

I just want to say that Ben Simmons defence is by far better than his offense despite the how many assists he puts.

He is ranked in the 26% percentile in overall offense

In the 24 percentile in transition offense at 0.93 PPP(terrible)! 31 percentile as a ball handler in transition and that is 75% of his total transition possessions.

He is also in the 47 Percentile as a PnR Ball Handler at only 0.796 PPP.

So these two are his biggest play types by volume and he is putting up terrible efficiency at both.

The Lebron comparisons were premature because Lebron was elite at both from the get go. Unless Ben Simmons develops a shot he is going to struggle even more in the playoffs.

On defence he is in the 68 Percentile allowing 0.876 PPP.

92 Percentile defending spot ups, 72 Percentile against Isolation

For comparison, Lebron our secret tanker is in the 22 Percentile on Defense this season.

He is in the 22 Percentile at defending post ups at 1.128 PPP and in the 24 Percentile defending Isolation at 1.1 PPP

Anyhow, if Simmons is comparable to Doncic in terms of offensive efficiency, then taking Doncic 1st is a major risk because he is definitely going to be worse than Simmons defensively. Simmons without the defence is a minus impact player.

Doncic is going to be as good as his 3pt shot is. I was concerned about his ability to generate good offense in isolation against bigger, more athletic guys, and I was also concerned about his ability to generate good offense when teams decide to take away his PnR ability and switch his PnRs. Right now, he tends to iso a bit too much against teams that take away his passing ability. His explosiveness off the dribble from stand still position is what scares me, and the question mark about his 3pt shot. If his 3pt shot is elite then hillock of explosion in the half court is less of a problem.

 

[Heej]

View: https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/status/963597597528256512

His egregious lack of guide hand in his jumper seemed so suspect to me. Some guys like Courtney Lee make it work but idk I guess him being a more streaky character makes sense to me because it does look odd.

 

[Heej]

Also re: Doncic scoring ability
If he's able to develop an ultra reliable step back jumper I'd be a lot less worried about his ability to create points. James Harden doesn't quite have the quickness he used to but his ability to stick stepbacks in a defenders eye or get them on his hip and bowl through them is the meat and potatoes of his game. Of course he's got a lot more side dishes than almost anyone but I can see a 230 lb bull in Doncic being able to get those important aspects down.

Step backs in isolation are trending higher as PPP plays now so that's what I wanna see outta Doncic more than anything. He's wily enough to get his buckets outta the other play types, especially if he developed into a strong off ball screener. I just think a do it all wing with few weaknesses in his game is perfect for LeBron now and in his twilight years. You know LeBron rsspects how ahead of their years Euros are because of their professional experience.