http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...ley-top-prospects-2018-nba-draft-kevin-pelton
@Nathan S
With conference tournaments in full swing and the NCAA tournament a week away, it's time to take a first look at my WARP projections for the college prospects who could be in this year's NBA draft.
As always, my projections are built on three factors:
- The player's projected performance as a rookie, based on translated NCAA stats over the past three seasons, adjusted for strength of schedule and a factor regressing outlier performance to the mean
- The player's age
- Where the player ranks in the latest top 100 rankings from my Insider colleagues Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz
(For more on how the projections worst and a look back at past projections,
see here.)
Even without factoring in international prospects, most notably
Luka Doncicand
his historic production in the Euroleague, this looks like a strong crop at the top. There's an unusual amount of agreement between my stats-only projections (factoring in translated production and age) and this year's top 100. Still, there are some surprising names in my top 30 and the order isn't quite the same as our top 100, starting at the very top.
1. Jaren Jackson Jr.
Michigan State
PF/C
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 3.7 WARP | Height: 6-11 | Weight: 242
While Jackson isn't at the top of either my stats-only projections or the top 100 rankings, the combination of strong finishes in both categories gives him a narrow edge as the top prospect overall. Jackson has been efficient both inside (61 percent on 2-pointers) and outside (nearly 40 percent on 3-pointers) the arc and has the NCAA's second-best block percentage, according to Sports-Reference.com. Add in Jackson's youth -- he's more than a year younger than Deandre Ayton -- and he looks like an excellent NBA prospect.
2. Deandre Ayton
Arizona
C
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 3.7 WARP | Height: 7-1 | Weight: 250
As Givony and Schmitz detailed last month, Ayton's poor steal rate and relatively average block percentage limit his statistical projection. Yet Ayton has surged from 11th in the stats-only projections back then to fifth now because of his dominance as a scorer and rebounder since. Those skills give Ayton a high floor. His development as a defender will determine Ayton's upside.
3. Mohamed Bamba
Texas
C
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 3
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Consensus: 3.6 WARP | Height: 6-11 | Weight: 225
Bamba blocks shots nearly as well as Jackson and rebounds nearly as well as Ayton. As compared to them, Bamba's offensive projection is weaker because of his lower usage rate and average-ish translated efficiency. He's also the oldest of the group, turning 20 before the draft.
4. Trae Young
Oklahoma
PG
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 2.8 WARP | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 180
Young's statistical projection has dropped as he has struggled in conference play. Nonetheless, his stats-only projection is still ahead of Ayton because Young gets credit for creating such a large share of the Sooners' offense. His projected usage rate as a rookie (26.4 percent of his team's plays) would equal the highest in my projection database, a record currently held by Luke Harangody.
5. Marvin Bagley III
Duke
PF/C
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 2.6 WARP | Height: 6-11 | Weight: 234
Of the top five players in our draft rankings (which also include international prospect Luka Doncic, not listed here), Bagley has the weakest statistical projection. He's particularly limited by his block percentage, which would be below-average for a power forward, let alone a center. Still, Bagley falls into the group of top 10 prospects with top-10 statistical projections that have typically produced the best NBA players.
6. Jontay Porter
Missouri
C
Top 100: No. 36
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 2.5 WARP | Height: 6-11 | Weight: 240
Because he has barely played due to injury, Michael Porter Jr. is not ranked in these projections. Instead, it's his younger brother who improbably has the best stats-only projection for any player. Playing primarily off the bench, Jontay Porter has shown a versatile skill set, making better than a 3-pointer per game at a 36.0 percent clip and handing out 3.6 assists per 40 minutes. What really drives his projection, however, is Porter's age: he won't turn 18 until after opening night of the 2018-19 season. Porter surely isn't the best prospect in the draft, and might not belong in the top 10, but given his combination of versatility and youth he should become a useful NBA contributor.
7. Wendell Carter Jr.
Duke
C
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 2.4 WARP | Height: 6-10 | Weight: 259
Carter has been just as productive as his more touted frontcourt-mate during their freshmen seasons, posting similar rebound percentages at both ends and blocking shots more than twice as frequently. Carter doesn't create quite as much offense as Bagley but should be an efficient scorer in the NBA.
8. Robert Williams
Texas A&M
PF/C
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 2.0 WARP | Height: 6-10 | Weight: 241
For an athletic big man, Williams is an unusually good passer. His projected assist rate is best of the big men in the top 14 of our rankings. (Porter's is slightly better.)
9. Mikal Bridges
Villanova
SF
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 1.9 WARP | Height: 6-6 | Weight: 210
During Villanova's run to the 2016 NCAA title, I tweeted that I expected then-freshman Bridges to become a first-round prospect next year. Consider me a year off, as Bridges has finally emerged as a likely lottery pick. His statistical projections have always supported that: Bridges' strong steal rate is a positive indicator, and he's become an accurate shooter from both 2 (65 percent career) and 3 (39 percent).
10. De'Anthony Melton
USC
PG/SG
Top 100: No. 28
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 1.8 WARP | Height: 6-4 | Weight: 190
Because he was implicated in the college basketball FBI scandal, Melton hasn't played this season. His performance as a freshman put Melton high in the stats-only projections. His excellent combination of steals and blocks suggests Melton will be a top-tier defender, though sitting out this season means we can't gauge his improvement as a shooter and playmaker.
