2018 NBA Draft - June 21

[Nathan S]

Doncic MVP...

 

[Nathan S]

Somewhat off-topic, but has anyone heard rumors about Saras wanting to coach in the NBA someday? He seems to be doing a remarkable job leading Zalgiris this year...a team operating on 1/3 or 1/4 the budget of the other three final four teams, and they look like they belong.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Somewhat off-topic, but has anyone heard rumors about Saras wanting to coach in the NBA someday? He seems to be doing a remarkable job leading Zalgiris this year...a team operating on 1/3 or 1/4 the budget of the other three final four teams, and they look like they belong.

Yeah he's good. With the success Royce O'Neale had with Utah this year I know people have started to point out that the type of players that Sarunas looks for are great in the NBA. I doubt he'd leave for the NBA though anytime soon since he's coaching for the best team in his home country and having success.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

I think we simply disagree in our assessment of him as an athlete. I think his combination of strength and lateral quickness is pretty nearly elite...his body seems much more NBA-ready than Shai's in spite of being a year younger. The only quibble I have with him is that, as you note, he doesn't have the super-quick hands characteristic of the very best NBA defenders.

I'm not comparing him to Shai. I'm talking in general. If we are going to mention Shai, then like you said, he needs to bulk up. He is also not a pest with quick hands compared to guys like Melton, Khyri Thomas, Jevon, etc and he is also not the quickest in recovering @ PnR. What he does extremely well that is going to translate is playing the passing lanes. Also, with his 8'8 SR and 6'11.5 Wingspan he is still able to contest/bother Ball Handlers even when he trails a play. While he isn't quick twitch, he has long strides and is able to compensate fairly well.

My working hypothesis is that Melton is an alien who sat out this year because he was visiting his family on his home planet.

what's your view on him and projection?

I'm not counting on putbacks being a big part of his offensive diet at the NBA level, but I am using his finishing ability on putbacks as a data point to evaluate his finishing ability in general, which is perhaps his biggest strength as a prospect.

Why? Does it correlate? any info on that?

I don't view him as a particularly good finisher when he doesn't dunk. Not creative enough, doesn't have great extension, tends to fade away and hang on his finishes when challenged. Do you think he is going to dunk on people and get easy dunks? The best Wing finishers in the NBA are not the ones that jump the highest.

Again, don't get the gripe that his athleticism "isn't as good as advertised." He's probably still 10 pounds or so below his ideal weight, but other than that, I don't really see any weaknesses. His vertical pop, factoring in the quickness with which he can load and get off the floor, is as good as anyone's. And his speed on defense and when moving without the ball on offense is pretty nearly elite as well. And while parts of his skillset are still very raw, I think they're raw more because of his young age and relative lack of experience, not because of a fundamental lack of motor skills and coordination.

We can't know that. He is not a lottery pick this year in the draft though.

 

[Nathan S]

I'm not comparing him to Shai. I'm talking in general. If we are going to mention Shai, then like you said, he needs to bulk up. He is also not a pest with quick hands compared to guys like Melton, Khyri Thomas, Jevon, etc and he is also not the quickest in recovering @ PnR. What he does extremely well that is going to translate is playing the passing lanes. Also, with his 8'8 SR and 6'11.5 Wingspan he is still able to contest/bother Ball Handlers even when he trails a play. While he isn't quick twitch, he has long strides and is able to compensate fairly well.

No freshman is going to be a perfect defensive player...even the very best, like Jackson and Bamba, have flaws when you look at them more closely. I like both Zhaire and Shai for their long-term defensive upside, but edge to Zhaire because he's a little younger, and because I'm just a little bit worried that Shai may stay too skinny to be an elite defender.

what's your view on him and projection?

His statistical projection, at least defensively, is out of this world. As far as I know, he put up bigger defensive numbers a year ago than any guard has ever done at the same age. Tentatively, I still like Jrue as a realistic ceiling...he'd probably be in the 8-15 range of my big board, but *really* need to watch more of his games to nail it down better than that.

Why? Does it correlate? any info on that?

I don't view him as a particularly good finisher when he doesn't dunk. Not creative enough, doesn't have great extension, tends to fade away and hang on his finishes when challenged. Do you think he is going to dunk on people and get easy dunks? The best Wing finishers in the NBA are not the ones that jump the highest.



We can't know that. He is not a lottery pick this year in the draft though.

There's a difference between simply being a high jumper, and being a guy who gets off the ground fast. As I've noted, even Wendell Carter has a 40+ inch vert if you let him load up. Zhaire, in contrast, gets off the ground in the blink of an eye. That's one thing that makes him such a disruptive defender, and such a great finisher.

The other factor in his favor is his willingness to take off in traffic. A lot of guys have big ups, but only use them when they have a runway to the basket and a landing strip behind it. Zhaire's not afraid to take off when there are bodies around him, and this results in him drawing fouls and making highlight plays in situations where other guys (who can jump just as high in a lab) would attempt a finesse finish or pass the ball back out.

EDIT: And I wouldn't be so sure he's not a lotto pick in this draft. A lot of mocks (maybe most of them?) have him in the later lottery.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

No freshman is going to be a perfect defensive player...even the very best, like Jackson and Bamba, have flaws when you look at them more closely. I like both Zhaire and Shai for their long-term defensive upside, but edge to Zhaire because he's a little younger, and because I'm just a little bit worried that Shai may stay too skinny to be an elite defender.

I agree about Shai. I'm also worried about how skinny he is and how it will impact his defensive versatility if he doesn't manage to bulk up...and if he manages to bulk up, how is it going to affect his smoothness and quickness with the ball on offense?

Although, I didn't see him get bullied at all during the season. Also, the fact that he was measured at 3% will allow him to bulk up cleanly, and with the stuff that they take in the NBA, you never know.

Yes, Shai's projection would have been insane if he were closer 19 on draft night rather than 19.

His statistical projection, at least defensively, is out of this world. As far as I know, he put up bigger defensive numbers a year ago than any guard has ever done at the same age. Tentatively, I still like Jrue as a realistic ceiling...he'd probably be in the 8-15 range of my big board, but *really* need to watch more of his games to nail it down better than that.

Cool. I like him as an impact player, but I like a lot of guys in this draft.

There's a difference between simply being a high jumper, and being a guy who gets off the ground fast. As I've noted, even Wendell Carter has a 40+ inch vert if you let him load up. Zhaire, in contrast, gets off the ground in the blink of an eye. That's one thing that makes him such a disruptive defender, and such a great finisher.

The other factor in his favor is his willingness to take off in traffic. A lot of guys have big ups, but only use them when they have a runway to the basket and a landing strip behind it. Zhaire's not afraid to take off when there are bodies around him, and this results in him drawing fouls and making highlight plays in situations where other guys (who can jump just as high in a lab) would attempt a finesse finish or pass the ball back out.

Okay, sure. But finishing isn't all about jumping high and dunking on people. It just doesn't happen that much as there will almsot always be a big defender in front of you unelss it's a cut from the weakside. The fact that he only attempted 2 runners during a full college season while palying so close to the basket is a problem. You need to have diversity and creativity as a finisher. Zhaire just wasn't very good finishing his layup when he had a defender in front of him.

 

[Nathan S]

I agree about Shai. I'm also worried about how skinny he is and how it will impact his defensive versatility if he doesn't manage to bulk up...and if he manages to bulk up, how is it going to affect his smoothness and quickness with the ball on offense?

Although, I didn't see him get bullied at all during the season. Also, the fact that he was measured at 3% will allow him to bulk up cleanly, and with the stuff that they take in the NBA, you never know.

Yes, Shai's projection would have been insane if he were closer 19 on draft night rather than 19.

Totally agree...and I think if he bulks up cleanly, just to 190 or so, it really shouldn't hurt his speed with the ball at all.

Cool. I like him as an impact player, but I like a lot of guys in this draft.

Tell me about it

Okay, sure. But finishing isn't all about jumping high and dunking on people. It just doesn't happen that much as there will almsot always be a big defender in front of you unelss it's a cut from the weakside. The fact that he only attempted 2 runners during a full college season while palying so close to the basket is a problem. You need to have diversity and creativity as a finisher. Zhaire just wasn't very good finishing his layup when he had a defender in front of him.

He isn't good at more advanced finishes yet (or even relatively straightforward layups, if I'm being honest), but I think this is largely a result of youth and inexperience. Few players have that kind of diversity and creativity at age 18, and those few are less athletically gifted guys who're forced to develop that ability from a very young age to remain competitive. He proved to be a quick learner at Texas Tech, so I'll roll the dice on him continuing to refine his game.

 

[dark2332]

As some of you are as well, I’m all aboard he SGA bus assuming we keep the pick and we don’t get a crazy fall from a top 4 guy.

I like him over both Young and Sexton.

He’s just a great fit as a versatile defender on this team. It’s incredibly valuable to have a point guard who has the size to guard two’s and even three’s regularly.

His shooting stroke has a great deal of potential and he’s so cerebral when going to the rim. His length is insane. He’s a savvy creator. He plays the game with a wisdom beyond his years.

Yes, he needs to add weight to his frame. However, if that’s his biggest knock as a young player, then bring him on.

 

[MirORich]

Really the only thing going against Shai is who else might be there at 8 and then the biggie......he’s Canadien.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

As some of you are as well, I’m all aboard he SGA bus assuming we keep the pick and we don’t get a crazy fall from a top 4 guy.

I like him over both Young and Sexton.

He’s just a great fit as a versatile defender on this team. It’s incredibly valuable to have a point guard who has the size to guard two’s and even three’s regularly.

His shooting stroke has a great deal of potential and he’s so cerebral when going to the rim. His length is insane. He’s a savvy creator. He plays the game with a wisdom beyond his years.

Yes, he needs to add weight to his frame. However, if that’s his biggest knock as a young player, then bring him on.

He doesn't have the frame or body type to add weight. I don't think he can check hardly any 3's at all... and may struggle with some 2's even physically I think.

Whoever drafts him will likely use his added height as an excuse to play another PG with him, and I'd bet the majority of his minutes come at the 2 - negating much of his size advantage.

The NBA has shown us in the last couple of years how difficult it is to have a quality offense without ball handlers who can shoot off the dribble. Shai took just 13 threes off the dribble from the NCAA on the entire season, and made just 3. I've brought up his mechanics in the past that I doubt he ever is able to make that shot from NBA range with any regularity.

He's a nice player, but taking him over a guy with Trae's offensive potential is completely nuts to me.

 

[Nathan S]

He doesn't have the frame or body type to add weight. I don't think he can check hardly any 3's at all... and may struggle with some 2's even physically I think.

Whoever drafts him will likely use his added height as an excuse to play another PG with him, and I'd bet the majority of his minutes come at the 2 - negating much of his size advantage.

The NBA has shown us in the last couple of years how difficult it is to have a quality offense without ball handlers who can shoot off the dribble. Shai took just 13 threes off the dribble from the NCAA on the entire season, and made just 3. I've brought up his mechanics in the past that I doubt he ever is able to make that shot from NBA range with any regularity.

He's a nice player, but taking him over a guy with Trae's offensive potential is completely nuts to me.

I'm a little higher than you on Shai...as is the case with Doncic defensively, I actually think he gives you a lot of versatility because you can play lineups with elite size+length at all five positions. But I agree with the conclusion. In a draft like this that's full of unicorns, drafting a guy like Shai, or Miles, or Sexton, or Walker would be disappointing in a way.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

I'm a little higher than you on Shai...as is the case with Doncic defensively, I actually think he gives you a lot of versatility because you can play lineups with elite size+length at all five positions. But I agree with the conclusion. In a draft like this that's full of unicorns, drafting a guy like Shai, or Miles, or Sexton, or Walker would be disappointing in a way.

Having good length gets mixed up with being defensively versatile too often. He's not vertically athletic either. Having a bigger PG allows you to play 5 guys with size sure, but again I think he'll predominantly play the 2. Also if you're playing that type of lineup it's likely you will be using a switch-heavy scheme. Any big in the league with any modicum of a post game would kill him down there, and the league's biggest wings will go through him.

I just think his defensive versatility is overrated. To me he's a 2-3 position defender, which relative to most SG's isn't something out of the ordinary anymore. I have him inside the top 20 so it's not like I'm low on him either... but taking him at 8 with some of the players that will be available is crazy.

 

[Nathan S]

Having good length gets mixed up with being defensively versatile too often. He's not vertically athletic either. Having a bigger PG allows you to play 5 guys with size sure, but again I think he'll predominantly play the 2. Also if you're playing that type of lineup it's likely you will be using a switch-heavy scheme. Any big in the league with any modicum of a post game would kill him down there, and the league's biggest wings will go through him.

I just think his defensive versatility is overrated. To me he's a 2-3 position defender, which relative to most SG's isn't something out of the ordinary anymore. I have him inside the top 20 so it's not like I'm low on him either... but taking him at 8 with some of the players that will be available is crazy.

If he ends up primarily playing the 2 that means his offensive game completely failed to develop, and in that scenario his defensive struggles on the wing would just be icing on the cake of disappointment.

The more interesting scenario is the one where he does actually become a good enough pure point guard to run the offense full time, and in that scenario he's likely to be at least a modest positive on defense, I think.

 

[Nathan S]

14 players done. As always, I'd appreciate it if you point out anything that seems glaringly incorrect in my analysis. I only watched 2-3 full games plus highlights for most of these players. Overall ranking currently looks like:

T1. Doncic
T1. Jackson
3. Jontay
4. Smith
5. Carter
T6. Young
T6. Mikal Bridges
T8. Shai
T8. Bamba
10. MPJ
T11. Ayton
T11. Miles Bridges
T11. Sexton
14. Bagley

Miles Bridges (32/60 overall)

Spoiler

Perimeter offense - simple rating 7/10, advanced rating 8/10

Reasonably accurate off the catch on a significant volume of attempts. Starting to show some ability to shoot off the dribble. High free throw percentage a positive sign.

Interior offense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 5/10

Capable of explosive finishes in the paint, but mediocre size limits his potential a little. Not overly quick or creative with the ball when he tries to create.

Team offense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 4/10

Capable of making simple reads, but probably not a guy you can run an offense through. Can get tunnel vision with the ball.

Total offense - 17/30


Perimeter defense - simple rating 3/10, advanced rating 4/10

Decent lateral mobility, but short wingspan limits his ability to contain. Frighteningly low steal rate suggests that he doesn't have the quick hands or reflexes to make ballhandlers uncomfortable.

Interior defense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 5/10

Has the strength to hold his own in the post, but may struggle at the NBA level due to below-average length. Shot blocking potential he displayed as a freshman all but disappeared last year.

Team defense - simple rating 7/10, advanced rating 6/10

A focused and engaged team defender with some ability to hold his own on switches, but low steal/block rates again a reason for concern. Doesn't make many mistakes, but doesn't really stand out in a positive way either.

Total defense - 15/30

Collin Sexton (32/60 overall)

Spoiler

Perimeter offense - simple rating 7/10, advanced rating 7/10

Very streaky shooter...surprisingly good touch on difficult shots at times, but some tendency to chuck when he should attack.

Interior offense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 9/10

At his best, a relentless attacker who throws defenders off balance with speed and athleticism. Shows good finishing ability at speeds where other players would be out of control. Puts pressure on bigs with his willingness to seek out contact.

Team offense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 5/10

Acted as a point guard for stretches, but didn't show good intuition for how to use his ability to break down the defense to create looks for his teammates. Turnover-prone when defenses swarmed him and took advantage of his limited vision off the bounce. Positive intangibles; a guy who will always bring the fight no matter the circumstances.

Total offense - 21/30


Perimeter defense - simple rating 7/10, advanced rating 5/10

Good physical tools for the point guard position, and good competitiveness, but had a bad tendency to play too aggressive without actually forcing turnovers, which sometimes compromised a generally rock-solid Alabama defense.

Interior defense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 3/10

Strength and competitiveness help him a little, but really too small to be a factor.

Team defense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 3/10

Good motor saves him a little, but combination of below-average size and poor decision making made him a significant negative at Alabama. The poster boy for how being an "instinctive" defender can be a bad thing, if you have bad instincts.

Total defense - 11/30

Link to Doncic/JJJ/Smith/Carter/Young/Porter/Porter/Bagley

Link to Ayton/Bamba

Link to Mikal/Shai

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

14 players done. As always, I'd appreciate it if you point out anything that seems glaringly incorrect in my analysis. I only watched 2-3 full games plus highlights for most of these players. Overall ranking currently looks like:

T1. Doncic
T1. Jackson
3. Jontay
4. Smith
5. Carter
T6. Young
T6. Mikal Bridges
T8. Shai
T8. Bamba
10. MPJ
T11. Ayton
T11. Miles Bridges
T11. Sexton
14. Bagley

Miles Bridges (32/60 overall)

Spoiler

Perimeter offense - simple rating 7/10, advanced rating 8/10

Reasonably accurate off the catch on a significant volume of attempts. Starting to show some ability to shoot off the dribble. High free throw percentage a positive sign.

Interior offense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 5/10

Capable of explosive finishes in the paint, but mediocre size limits his potential a little. Not overly quick or creative with the ball when he tries to create.

Team offense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 4/10

Capable of making simple reads, but probably not a guy you can run an offense through. Can get tunnel vision with the ball.

Total offense - 17/30

Perimeter defense - simple rating 3/10, advanced rating 4/10

Decent lateral mobility, but short wingspan limits his ability to contain. Frighteningly low steal rate suggests that he doesn't have the quick hands or reflexes to make ballhandlers uncomfortable.

Interior defense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 5/10

Has the strength to hold his own in the post, but may struggle at the NBA level due to below-average length. Shot blocking potential he displayed as a freshman all but disappeared last year.

Team defense - simple rating 7/10, advanced rating 6/10

A focused and engaged team defender with some ability to hold his own on switches, but low steal/block rates again a reason for concern. Doesn't make many mistakes, but doesn't really stand out in a positive way either.

Total defense - 15/30

Collin Sexton (32/60 overall)

Spoiler

Perimeter offense - simple rating 7/10, advanced rating 7/10

Very streaky shooter...surprisingly good touch on difficult shots at times, but some tendency to chuck when he should attack.

Interior offense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 9/10

At his best, a relentless attacker who throws defenders off balance with speed and athleticism. Shows good finishing ability at speeds where other players would be out of control. Puts pressure on bigs with his willingness to seek out contact.

Team offense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 5/10

Acted as a point guard for stretches, but didn't show good intuition for how to use his ability to break down the defense to create looks for his teammates. Turnover-prone when defenses swarmed him and took advantage of his limited vision off the bounce. Positive intangibles; a guy who will always bring the fight no matter the circumstances.

Total offense - 21/30


Perimeter defense - simple rating 7/10, advanced rating 5/10

Good physical tools for the point guard position, and good competitiveness, but had a bad tendency to play too aggressive without actually forcing turnovers, which sometimes compromised a generally rock-solid Alabama defense.

Interior defense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 3/10

Strength and competitiveness help him a little, but really too small to be a factor.

Team defense - simple rating 5/10, advanced rating 3/10

Good motor saves him a little, but combination of below-average size and poor decision making made him a significant negative at Alabama. The poster boy for how being an "instinctive" defender can be a bad thing, if you have bad instincts.

Total defense - 11/30

It's just crazy to put Bagley at 14th. Crazy.

Can you explain?