3 Ball...GOT IT
#CediSZN
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Decided to look at Trae Young's 43 point game vs Oregon today closer and see what he did good/bad (offense only).
Starting out with the good. The first thing that will stick out to you if you watch him is his 3 point shooting range. Super quick release. Catches guys off guard right in front of him constantly.
The other aspect of his game that sets him apart is his passing ability. We will see if the number hold up, but so far his AST/TO rate of about 2.57 is solid, especially given his usage on this team. More importantly, he seems to be able to pass over the top of bigs without much trouble right now. None of his TO's in this game were by poor passes.
Where he thrives the most is in transition. Despite his size, he can put some serious speed on his passes. Once he gets downhill in the open court, he routinely collapses the defenses and finds the open teammate. A guy his size isn't supposed to make this pass:
Once downhill, knows where to dribble to in order to collapse the defense. Makes the right play.
Note that all of these are off of dead-ball situations, not even considered to really be "transition", yet is still able to kill defenses.
He is very good at reading the defense while on the move, a skill many players struggle with. Threads the needle here to a moving target.
So often you see him put a little extra zip on passes before defenses can react. Have to point out again that his turnovers in this game did not come off of passes.
Once he's downhill, he's able to create for himself too with an at least decent handle. He should be able to score when necessary in transition or in odd-man situations.
A slight change in speeds off a miss on the other end creates a scoring opportunity and forces his defender to foul.
Showed the ability to change directions in transition as well to get to the rim.
Now onto the bad. Trae Young has one primary weakness, and it's huge. He has an extremely slow first step.
If he's not able to beat college bigs off the dribble, he's really going to struggle attacking in the NBA. Here he gets switched onto a big, gets cut off easily.
Again, a big switches onto him and only gets halfway to the rim before just trying to flop for a foul call.
Here he has a big all the way out completely above the 3 point line, and just barely gets enough space to the rim before getting the bail out foul.
Unfortunately, you can't simply develop a quick first step over time... he's never going to have it. However, this play is one in which gives you hope that he can develop a handle good enough to compensate for the lack of quickness, as he again couldn't beat his man off the dribble but this time is able to get to an open look.
Two things that I didn't mention or have clips of... His 3 point range is certainly one of the best in college right now, but his shot selection is very questionable. However, he's shooting 39.4% from three right now, so if that # holds up, then who am I to question those shots. Secondly, he shot 18 FTs. MANY of these were away from the ball, part of the game flow late.
There are a few things that I will be interested in at the end of the season:
1. AST/TO rate
2. Finishing at the rim
3. Floater shooting %
Mentioned the assist to turnover rate earlier. We will see if he keeps it up. I've liked what I've seen so far, but you just never know with smaller PGs with how well they can see teammates. Finishing at the rim is always huge for smaller guards as well. Without that, they've got no shot at the NBA. Lastly, a floater game is also needed. With the spaced floor in the NBA, if he's able to get into the paint he's going to have no chance finishing 1 on 1 at the rim against the likes of Gobert, Deandre Jordan, etc. By my count he was 2 for 4 on floaters in this game.
After this game I've seen people bringing up Steph Curry similarities on twitter. To me, he's actually got a similar transition to the NBA as Lonzo Ball on the offensive end. Lonzo is struggling with that right now. What I mean by this is that he's going to struggle some to score in the halfcourt setting. He's phenomenal in transition - just like Lonzo.
Also, Lonzo made it routine to take/make 3's well beyond the 3 point line in the NCAA. Naturally, defenders are not used to guarding guys that far out, and Lonzo would get these open, yet super deep 3's to fall 2-3 times a game. Trae Young is in the same circumstance. Those roughly 2-3 open shots won't be there in the NBA with the difference in 3 point line. Another downside to this comparison is that Lonzo is big enough to play off the ball in the half court. Young likely won't have that luxury, as there's only a handful of NBA teams with a solid creator off the bench that is a 2 guard or wing.
All and all if those 3 numbers above check out, I think he's worth a pick in the late first, early second at least right now. I just wouldn't be drafting him with the expectation he will be much more than a good backup or change of pace type of PG.
Lastly I saved this last one play that to me is the full Trae Young offensive experience. Fails to beat his big off the dribble, finds an open area, his an impossible fall away three.
Final line:
11-22 FG, 4-11 3PT, 17-18 FT
43 PTS, 4 REB, 7 AST, 2 STL, 4 TO
Starting out with the good. The first thing that will stick out to you if you watch him is his 3 point shooting range. Super quick release. Catches guys off guard right in front of him constantly.
The other aspect of his game that sets him apart is his passing ability. We will see if the number hold up, but so far his AST/TO rate of about 2.57 is solid, especially given his usage on this team. More importantly, he seems to be able to pass over the top of bigs without much trouble right now. None of his TO's in this game were by poor passes.
Where he thrives the most is in transition. Despite his size, he can put some serious speed on his passes. Once he gets downhill in the open court, he routinely collapses the defenses and finds the open teammate. A guy his size isn't supposed to make this pass:
Once downhill, knows where to dribble to in order to collapse the defense. Makes the right play.
Note that all of these are off of dead-ball situations, not even considered to really be "transition", yet is still able to kill defenses.
He is very good at reading the defense while on the move, a skill many players struggle with. Threads the needle here to a moving target.
So often you see him put a little extra zip on passes before defenses can react. Have to point out again that his turnovers in this game did not come off of passes.
Once he's downhill, he's able to create for himself too with an at least decent handle. He should be able to score when necessary in transition or in odd-man situations.
A slight change in speeds off a miss on the other end creates a scoring opportunity and forces his defender to foul.
Showed the ability to change directions in transition as well to get to the rim.
Now onto the bad. Trae Young has one primary weakness, and it's huge. He has an extremely slow first step.
If he's not able to beat college bigs off the dribble, he's really going to struggle attacking in the NBA. Here he gets switched onto a big, gets cut off easily.
Again, a big switches onto him and only gets halfway to the rim before just trying to flop for a foul call.
Here he has a big all the way out completely above the 3 point line, and just barely gets enough space to the rim before getting the bail out foul.
Unfortunately, you can't simply develop a quick first step over time... he's never going to have it. However, this play is one in which gives you hope that he can develop a handle good enough to compensate for the lack of quickness, as he again couldn't beat his man off the dribble but this time is able to get to an open look.
Two things that I didn't mention or have clips of... His 3 point range is certainly one of the best in college right now, but his shot selection is very questionable. However, he's shooting 39.4% from three right now, so if that # holds up, then who am I to question those shots. Secondly, he shot 18 FTs. MANY of these were away from the ball, part of the game flow late.
There are a few things that I will be interested in at the end of the season:
1. AST/TO rate
2. Finishing at the rim
3. Floater shooting %
Mentioned the assist to turnover rate earlier. We will see if he keeps it up. I've liked what I've seen so far, but you just never know with smaller PGs with how well they can see teammates. Finishing at the rim is always huge for smaller guards as well. Without that, they've got no shot at the NBA. Lastly, a floater game is also needed. With the spaced floor in the NBA, if he's able to get into the paint he's going to have no chance finishing 1 on 1 at the rim against the likes of Gobert, Deandre Jordan, etc. By my count he was 2 for 4 on floaters in this game.
After this game I've seen people bringing up Steph Curry similarities on twitter. To me, he's actually got a similar transition to the NBA as Lonzo Ball on the offensive end. Lonzo is struggling with that right now. What I mean by this is that he's going to struggle some to score in the halfcourt setting. He's phenomenal in transition - just like Lonzo.
Also, Lonzo made it routine to take/make 3's well beyond the 3 point line in the NCAA. Naturally, defenders are not used to guarding guys that far out, and Lonzo would get these open, yet super deep 3's to fall 2-3 times a game. Trae Young is in the same circumstance. Those roughly 2-3 open shots won't be there in the NBA with the difference in 3 point line. Another downside to this comparison is that Lonzo is big enough to play off the ball in the half court. Young likely won't have that luxury, as there's only a handful of NBA teams with a solid creator off the bench that is a 2 guard or wing.
All and all if those 3 numbers above check out, I think he's worth a pick in the late first, early second at least right now. I just wouldn't be drafting him with the expectation he will be much more than a good backup or change of pace type of PG.
Lastly I saved this last one play that to me is the full Trae Young offensive experience. Fails to beat his big off the dribble, finds an open area, his an impossible fall away three.
Final line:
11-22 FG, 4-11 3PT, 17-18 FT
43 PTS, 4 REB, 7 AST, 2 STL, 4 TO
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