2018 NBA Draft - June 21

[Alec]

Been watching T. Young tape all day. As much as I’d love another shooter of his caliber to play next to LeBron, he seems slow. I like that he doesn’t panic in the lane and under the basket. But small and slow just isn’t good. also, his shooting can be fun to watch but his shot form is ass. Telegraphs it quite a bit.

I wouldn’t be excited at all if the Cavs chose him.

 

[blommen]

Bamba at 3 is embarrassing picking Bamba over Jackson is bad picking him over Bagley should get said gm fired before the draft ends


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Oh I don't know man. I'm one of the biggest Jaren Jackson stans on here and even I wouldn't blame someone for picking Bamba ahead of Jackson. Sure, there's the age difference and Jackson is a better shooter and probably a better defender right now, like, I get it. But Bamba's ceilling is so unbelievably high from a defensive standpoint that I would absolutely understand someone taking him ahead of Jackson. It's also not out of the realm of possibility that Bamba develops an outside shot over time, which further validates him being picked so high.

 

[Nathan S]

Pretty huge game for Sexton this afternoon...needs a strong showing at home against Young to hold on to his consensus lottery pick status. It's a matchup he should be able to attack, with Young's reluctance to play physical defense.

 

[NorthCoastBias]

View: https://twitter.com/joegoodmanjr/status/957321613451694081

 

[Nathan S]

Revamped my draft rater yesterday, and while it still has some flaws (most notably that the sample size of 300-odd players is on the small side, and doesn't include data past the 2013-14 season), it's substantially better than the previous version in a few ways.

-It's free of all interaction terms (things like Rebounds*Assists, etc.), which makes it much more stable for outliers like Trae Young.

-It's asymptotically linear in all variables, which also makes it more stable for outliers.

-It's divided into offensive and defensive components, which makes it more stable in some ways (e.g. defensive rebounds are only allowed to affect a player's defensive rating, three pointers are only allowed to affect a player's offensive rating) and also makes it easier to interpret. One important note on this topic: while total ratings are directly comparable across positions, offensive and defensive ratings are not. For instance, a defensive rating of 0 would be pretty bad for a center, but very good for a point guard. Conversely, an offensive rating of 0 would be pretty bad for a point guard, but very good for a center.

I won't pack this post with any more details (feel free to reply or pm with questions though, and I'll explain in any level of detail). I'll post all the ratings (for lottery prospects) tomorrow afternoon sometime once sports reference has updated to include the results of today's games. So far I've added Jackson and both Bridges (who don't play today). You can also see full historical ratings (most players from 2012 draft and earlier should be in there) under the Historical Ratings tab in the bottom left. I'll also get around to posting estimated uncertainties in the ratings soon.

I'm also happy to calculate ratings for other interesting prospects in this draft and in other drafts post-2012; I'll make another tab for these if there's enough interest.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h98LyhYUQHnGQTSMJTj3i_0Lj4iF03oHGeyDDtjWgV8/edit?usp=sharing

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

Been watching T. Young tape all day. As much as I’d love another shooter of his caliber to play next to LeBron, he seems slow. I like that he doesn’t panic in the lane and under the basket. But small and slow just isn’t good. also, his shooting can be fun to watch but his shot form is ass. Telegraphs it quite a bit.

I wouldn’t be excited at all if the Cavs chose him.

This cant be overstated.

Whoever drafts this kid high is going to have to be totally committed to tailoring an offense to take advantage of his strengths and hope to catch lightning in the bottle in regard to him remaining an unconscious gunner at the next level. I dont see it. A few inches taller and a step quicker and he could be in discussion for projecting to be a dangerous lead guard scorer in today's NBA. He has the same over reliance on needing to be shifty to create space that Trey Burke had without the next level of quickness or size/length that Kyrie has to go with that shiftiness.

No thanks

 

[czvo]

Bama has too many players with similar hair to Sexton, and my TV isn't big enough for me to always tell the difference. Anyone else running into that problem?

 

[Nathan S]

Who do you all think will be the second upperclassman off the board (after Bridges)? Preseason Grayson Allen probably would've been a popular choice, but that's looking increasingly laughable these days. Other than him, there are a lot of guys that look like they could be solid roleplayers, but no one stands out.

 

[czvo]

This cant be overstated.

Whoever drafts this kid high is going to have to be totally committed to tailoring an offense to take advantage of his strengths and hope to catch lightning in the bottle in regard to him remaining an unconscious gunner at the next level. I dont see it. A few inches taller and a step quicker and he could be in discussion for projecting to be a dangerous lead guard scorer in today's NBA. He has the same over reliance on needing to be shifty to create space that Trey Burke had without the next level of quickness or size/length that Kyrie has to go with that shiftiness.

No thanks

I largely agree with this, though I do think he's actually a pretty good passer. He's made the skip pass to the opposite corner off the PnR (the Harden/LeBron/Wall specialty) more times in the 4-5 games I've seen than I ever saw Kyrie make in 6 years here.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

I largely agree with this, though I do think he's actually a pretty good passer. He's made the skip pass to the opposite corner off the PnR (the Harden/LeBron/Wall specialty) more times in the 4-5 games I've seen than I ever saw Kyrie make in 6 years here.

He's making that pass against guys where 90% of them wont play at the next level. When I watched Kyrie play at Duke early and against Michigan State in the tourney when he came back, he was not only able to make that pass if he wanted, he could literally get anywhere on the court he wanted to... against Michigan State.

Trae Young is being taken out of the game right now by Avery Johnson using NBA defensive tactics with a bunch guys who will never play next level and Collin Sexton, who I like as a better all around PG prospect

 

[Nathan S]

He's making that pass against guys where 90% of them wont play at the next level. When I watched Kyrie play at Duke early and against Michigan State in the tourney when he came back, he was not only able to make that pass if he wanted, he could literally get anywhere on the court he wanted to... against Michigan State.

Trae Young is being taken out of the game right now by Avery Johnson using NBA defensive tactics with a bunch guys who will never play next level and Collin Sexton, who I like as a better all around PG prospect

Kyrie is probably a top-5 (or better) offensive prospect of all-time though. Just because Young falls short of Kyrie in some ways doesn't mean he can't be an excellent player at the next level. There was a week or two of delirium a while back with people having him #2 or even #1 in this draft, and now I feel like the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

Kyrie is probably a top-5 (or better) offensive prospect of all-time though. Just because Young falls short of Kyrie in some ways doesn't mean he can't be an excellent player at the next level. There was a week or two of delirium a while back with people having him #2 or even #1 in this draft, and now I feel like the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction.

I was answering a comparison of how Kyrie passes at this level to how Trey passes against much weaker competition.

Without comparing him to Kyrie at all, I dont think he will be an excellent player at the next level and I havent had the time to ride the rollercoaster in here, when ultimately, he wont get quicker or taller no matter how he looks against the competition this season.

I gave my analysis on how his game looks to translate to the next level at the beginning of the season as the hype started picking up, the same way I did when MKG's hype catapulted him into lottery discussions late December/early January in these threads. The NBA game is changing, and new roles are being crafted for guys to excel and become stars with limitations to their games every day... you would be hard pressed to find a specially made role where this guy becomes a star that carries a team.

There are stars in this draft, however.

This kid would be BBQ chicken on the defensive end and his lack of a quick first step and weird release that wont be as productive at the next level, will prohibit him being a cornerstone piece in the same way that I felt MKG and TT's limitations would limit them.

 

[Nathan S]

I was answering a comparison of how Kyrie passes at this level to how Trey passes against much weaker competition.

Without comparing him to Kyrie at all, I dont think he will be an excellent player at the next level and I havent had the time to ride the rollercoaster in here, when ultimately, he wont get quicker or taller no matter how he looks against the competition this season.

I gave my analysis on how his game looks to translate to the next level at the beginning of the season as the hype started picking up, the same way I did when MKG's hype catapulted him into lottery discussions late December/early January in these threads. The NBA game is changing, and new roles are being crafted for guys to excel and become stars with limitations to their games every day... you would be hard pressed to find a specially made role where this guy becomes a star that carries a team.

There are stars in this draft, however.

This kid would be BBQ chicken on the defensive end and his lack of a quick first step and weird release that wont be as productive at the next level, will prohibit him being a cornerstone piece in the same way that I felt MKG and TT's limitations would limit them.

Sorry, it was a mistake for me to quote you because I didn't necessarily think your take was bad, and I know you haven't see-sawed on him.

I think the quickness and accuracy of his shot off the dribble will make up for his lack of speed and allow him to continue to score at the next level. That combined with his passing ability is a rare thing in a point guard prospect...normally you pick a Collin Sexton and pray his passing game develops, or a Lonzo Ball and pray his scoring game develops. You can find flaws in his game, but that's true for every 19 year old. I think those flaws are starting to get blown out of proportion.

The main thing holding his back is his defense, but that's always been known, even before tougher competition brought some of his offensive flaws to light.

 

[czvo]

Still not the biggest Kevin Knox fan, but he has absolutely balled out in Morgantown. That's not an easy place to play, and he's really brought them back from a 15-point halftime deficit making just about everything.

 

[randymoss1881]

He's making that pass against guys where 90% of them wont play at the next level. When I watched Kyrie play at Duke early and against Michigan State in the tourney when he came back, he was not only able to make that pass if he wanted, he could literally get anywhere on the court he wanted to... against Michigan State.

Trae Young is being taken out of the game right now by Avery Johnson using NBA defensive tactics with a bunch guys who will never play next level and Collin Sexton, who I like as a better all around PG prospect

His tactics was to face guard Young the minute he crossed half court as well as double team him there. If teams are doubling Young at the 3point line in the league I’ll take him 1st


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