2019 Cavs

[TitleTown]

Too low for me. I would put Cavs in front of Miami...

Well, if you and I are both right, then that puts the Cavs around 9th or 10th worst...

 

[Cavatt]

Well, if you and I are both right, then that puts the Cavs around 9th or 10th worst...

I guess that is sort of the worst case scenario is being in the 10 spot and maybe moving to 11 in last second jostling for position.

 

[mhi]

As we stand right now, we are better than BKN and ORL.

ORL probably, but BKN is a stretch given how good coached they are (see last year as example). That's gotta be a factor in these rankings.

I don't think we should overlook the fact that Irving was the youngest out of the big three and he just didn't connect with Lue. There is still something to be seen as to how Lue handles a younger team, and if he can get them to play hard.

 

[TitleTown]

ORL probably, but BKN is a stretch given how good coached they are (see last year as example). That's gotta be a factor in these rankings.

I don't think we should overlook the fact that Irving was the youngest out of the big three and he just didn't connect with Lue. There is still something to be seen as to how Lue handles a younger team, and if he can get them to play hard.

It's so hard to tell at this point. We could be the 8th worst team in the league, or the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

That is honestly how wide of range there is for this team right now.

And, to be perfectly honest, I'm cool with both possibilities. If you made me bet $1000 on one of the two outcomes, I would feel equally non-confident in both choices.

 

[SVC]

Vegas over and under. 6th worst record.

Team Wins
Atl 23.5
Sac 25.5
Chi 27.5
Phx 28.5
NY 29.5
Cle 30.5
Orl 31.5
Brk 32.5
Dal 34.5
Mem 34.5
Cha 35.5
LAC 35.5
Det 37.5
Mia 41.5
Prt 41.5
SA 43.5
Min 44.5
Wsh 44.5
NO 45.5
Mil 46.5
Den 47.5
Ind 47.5
LAL 48.5
Uth 48.5
OKC 50.5
Hou 54.5
Phi 54.5
Tor 54.5
Bos 57.5
GS 62.5

Yeah, I predicted about 31. I hate when they get it right, and they’ve gotten much better at this than they used to be.

Off the top of my head, I like Spurs o 43.5 because I expect Derozan to respond well to that culture in SA. Detroit o 37.5. Won 39 last year with a lot of injuries and Casey is a regular season grinder. NYK u 29.5. Think they were like 7-27 without Porzingis and he’s expected to miss most of the season. Houston o 54.5 They’ll be looking to run that same get homecourt blueprint mentally imo. They think they win last year if they stayed healthy. I can’t diagree. They had a shot. I really like Memphis u 34.5. Someone has to lose in West and I don’t think despite being likely healthier that they’ll be able to approach 30 in an increasingly tough WC.


They really expect Portland to come back to earth. Interesting, but I kind of agree it could happen, thus it isn’t a play imo.

 

[Nathan S]

It's so hard to tell at this point. We could be the 8th worst team in the league, or the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

That is honestly how wide of range there is for this team right now.

And, to be perfectly honest, I'm cool with both possibilities. If you made me bet $1000 on one of the two outcomes, I would feel equally non-confident in both choices.

There's a lot riding on Love, and his ability to stay healthy. Without him our best player is...Nance? Hill? Korver? Sexton, if we're lucky? Love is basically the only reason we're not in the same boat with the Hawks targeting 20-25 wins.

 

[6.19.2016]

Too low for me. I would put Cavs in front of Miami...

How do you figure?

I guess that is sort of the worst case scenario is being in the 10 spot and maybe moving to 11 in last second jostling for position.

Technically, we have to be bottom 6 to be safe - took a while searching to find that the top-3 odds changed to top 4.

However, our odds look pretty good. Actually, the odds of losing the pick at #7 are vanishingly small, smaller than you would think:

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

I still don't see how they figure SA is in the lottery, as tight as the West is - they are essentially replacing D.Green with DeRozan+Poeltl among everyone who actually played much last year. And Denver is likely making it IMO...

 

[Jordan]

As we stand right now, we are better than BKN and ORL.

There is no chance in hell that Charlotte finishes with 35 wins... And they will trade Kemba mid-season.

I was telling @Nathan S, I think the most likely scenario is somewhere between 33-35 wins, with an equally likely high-and-low end (playoffs vs. sub-28 wins).

Frankly, I am great with that. It will mean an entertaining Cavs' season, our young guys will legitimately get a chance to develop, and we probably keep our pick.

There's a lot riding on Love, and his ability to stay healthy. Without him our best player is...Nance? Hill? Korver? Sexton, if we're lucky? Love is basically the only reason we're not in the same boat with the Hawks targeting 20-25 wins.

ETA: Yeah, if the Cavs are sub-28, I think it will be significantly so. What that means is that Love got hurt or pulled midseason, so we end up trading Korver and Hill, resulting in a complete tank job.

 

[billmac91]

Yeah, I predicted about 31. I hate when they get it right, and they’ve gotten much better at this than they used to be.

Off the top of my head, I like Spurs o 43.5 because I expect Derozan to respond well to that culture in SA. Detroit o 37.5. Won 39 last year with a lot of injuries and Casey is a regular season grinder. NYK u 29.5. Think they were like 7-27 without Porzingis and he’s expected to miss most of the season. Houston o 54.5 They’ll be looking to run that same get homecourt blueprint mentally imo. They think they win last year if they stayed healthy. I can’t diagree. They had a shot. I really like Memphis u 34.5. Someone has to lose in West and I don’t think despite being likely healthier that they’ll be able to approach 30 in an increasingly tough WC.


They really expect Portland to come back to earth. Interesting, but I kind of agree it could happen, thus it isn’t a play imo.

Curious your thoughts on Washington.....44.5 seems really low to me. I think they’re a dark horse to win the East....certainly much better than a .500 team.

 

[Jedi Osman]

How do you figure?

Cavs have still a legit team with All Star Vets like Love. The young guys are promising too. It's a nice mixture of talented young guys and legit veterans.Not to forget theadvantage of playing in the pretty weak eastern conference too. Doesn't look too bad for me tbh.

 

[JMoneyYourHoney]

Curious your thoughts on Washington.....44.5 seems really low to me. I think they’re a dark horse to win the East....certainly much better than a .500 team.

LOL. Washington's a "dark horse" every year and they do jack shit.

Fuck that team.

 

[bobbyh]

Curious your thoughts on Washington.....44.5 seems really low to me. I think they’re a dark horse to win the East....certainly much better than a .500 team.

I think with Lebron gone all those teams who lost hope of ever making the Finals and gave up are now going to be rejuvenated and ready to step things up knowing they aren't dead man walking against a Lebron team.

I think at least 3 teams in the East have an equal chance of making the Finals depending on if they stay relatively injury free.

 

[Cavatt]

I think the hardest part of figuring out where the Cavs will land is defense. I think they have the potential to be a good defensive team. It really depends on what Lue and Longabardi are up to. I doubt with a real center on the roster they will continue to tailor their defense to beat GS. They will play a more traditional defense that will be better for Zizic and Love.

Lebron mailed it in on defense except for in the 4th quarter last year. Cedi is better defensively, Young Bull will give effort if not be a positive defender, and Hill will be good at the 2, where I think he is likely to start.

Love can generally hold his own in the post, it is penetration that messes him up, same with TT really. The perimeter D is going to better I have no doubt. Nance can bolster starting defense, and on the off chance Zizic starts, I think he actually fits quite well with Love.

This won'tr be at all like 2010. There are scoring options, and I think the defense will be greatly improved. They will have to grit it out. I think they know that.

 

[stowfan]

I just don't think the Cavs are going to lose all those games. The Cavs' roster is filled with young question marks. If a few come through the Cavs' roster isn't that bad compared to the other teams ranked above them.

 

[Cavatt]

I just don't think the Cavs are going to lose all those games. The Cavs' roster is filled with young question marks. If a few come through the Cavs' roster isn't that bad compared to the other teams ranked above them.

Zizic and Cedi were literally better than the guys in front of them last year. Apparently, Clarkson realizes he has to make changes to win. I think he was really embarrassed in the playoffs. Nance seemed to figure it out too. Nance and Clarkson are going into their prime years. Next year should be close to their best years statistically.