2019 Draft Prospects Thread

[CBBI]

After Kitchens took over...

Targeted More, More Efficient
Nick Chubb (compared to Hyde)
Hyde under Haley: 1.5 targets per game, 4.8 YPC, 3.2 YPT, 66.7% catch percentage
Chubb under Kitchens: 2.9 targets per game, 7.7 YPC, 6.0 YPT, 78.3% catch percentage

Targeted More, Less Efficient
Duke Johnson
Under Haley: 3.6 targets per game, 10.2 YPC, 7.0 YPT, 69.0% catch percentage
Under Kitchens: 4.1 targets per game, 8.3 YPC, 6.9 YPT, 81.1% catch percentage

Targeted Less, More Efficient
David Njoku
Under Haley: 6.4 targets per game, 9.6 YPC, 5.8 YPT, 60.8% catch percentage
Under Kitchens: 4.6 targets per game, 13.7 YPC, 9.2 YPT, 67.6% catch percentage

Antonio Callaway
Under Haley: 5.6 targets per game, 11.2 YPC, 5.2 YPT, 46.7% catch percentage
Under Kitchens: 4.3 targets per game, 15.9 YPC, 10.3 YPT, 64.7% catch percentage

Jarvis Landry
Under Haley: 11.8 targets per game, 10.8 YPC, 5.6 YPT, 52.1% catch percentage
Under Kitchens: 6.9 targets per game, 14.0 YPC, 8.2 YPT, 58.2% catch percentage

Targeted Less, Less Efficient
Rashard Higgins
Under Haley: 4.4 targets, 15.2 YPC, 11.1 YPT, 72.7% catch percentage
Under Kitchens: 3.9 targets, 14.3 YPC, 10.6 YPT, 74.2% catch percentage

New Addition post Haley
Breshad Perriman
Under Kitchens: 2.9 targets per game, 22.3 YPC, 14.5 YPT, 65.2 catch percentage

Targets per game under Haley
Landry: 11.8
Njoku: 6.4
Callaway 5.6
Higgins: 4.4
Duke 3.6
Hyde: 1.5

Targets per game under Kitchens
Landry 6.9
Njoku 4.6
Callaway 4.3
Duke 4.1
Higgins 3.9
Chubb 2.9
Perriman 2.9

A lot more balanced under Kitchens. Less force feeding to Landry. Less inefficient passing to Njoku and Callaway who both were plagued with the drops early in the year. More overall passing to the running backs (although you could argue still not enough). The emergence of Perriman as a legitimate deep ball threat.

Callaway was actually the biggest overall efficiency beneficiary of the coaching switch, but Njoku was right behind him. Landry played much better in a more limited role as well. Higgins was really good under both coaches.

 

[blommen]

While I will absolutely jump in the camp for getting Devin White in the first round, I think we should probably resign ourselves to the fact that we probably aren't getting him unless we trade up in the draft. Most of the mocks I've read have him in the 7-13 range, so we're going to have to move up to have a realistic shot at snagging him up.

I don't know what you traditionally pay for trading up in a draft, but the Browns seem to have a lot of resources on hand, so if that's the way Dorsey wants to play it he should definitely be able to do it. What is the usual cost for trading up, say, 10 spots in the draft?

 

[dark2332]

While I will absolutely jump in the camp for getting Devin White in the first round, I think we should probably resign ourselves to the fact that we probably aren't getting him unless we trade up in the draft. Most of the mocks I've read have him in the 7-13 range, so we're going to have to move up to have a realistic shot at snagging him up.

I don't know what you traditionally pay for trading up in a draft, but the Browns seem to have a lot of resources on hand, so if that's the way Dorsey wants to play it he should definitely be able to do it. What is the usual cost for trading up, say, 10 spots in the draft?

I mean, it’s January.

I don’t think we’re anywhere close to knowing exactly where these guys are going to go yet. We haven’t even had the combine measurables and interviews.

To say we’d have to trade up from 17 to 10 at this stage might be a little premature.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I mean, it’s January.

I don’t think we’re anywhere close to knowing exactly where these guys are going to go yet. We haven’t even had the combine measurables and interviews.

To say we’d have to trade up from 17 to 10 at this stage might be a little premature.

Right.

At this point, the mocks are simply what the pundits thing should happen based on their evaluations, and they can be very wrong. Especially since they're prone to groupthink. It's only when you get very close to the draft that leaks from different teams can sometimes be put together to create a template for how things may go. And sometimes not even then.

 

[blommen]

I mean, it’s January.

I don’t think we’re anywhere close to knowing exactly where these guys are going to go yet. We haven’t even had the combine measurables and interviews.

To say we’d have to trade up from 17 to 10 at this stage might be a little premature.

Wasn't aware that this was still early in the evaluation process, thanks. When can you usually expect to have a pretty clear idea of the draft?

 

[Huber.]

Wasn't aware that this was still early in the evaluation process, thanks. When can you usually expect to have a pretty clear idea of the draft?

Sunday, April 28th

 

[dark2332]

Wasn't aware that this was still early in the evaluation process, thanks. When can you usually expect to have a pretty clear idea of the draft?

Probably in March it starts to form up on who is likely to be a top 5-10 pick.

Even still, every single year we see guys who were supposed to go top 5 fall out of the top 12-15 picks. Jonathan Allen. Malik Hooker. A whole variety of guys. Sometimes it's injury-related with the combine medicals. Those medicals tend to be very valuable for teams.

Other times, it's disciplinary like Reuben Foster. Either way, the unpredictability of it all makes it so much fun. Sometimes, impressive numbers at the combine vault a borderline 1st/2nd round guy into the top 10 on draft night, causing others to fall.

Guys that are expected to be mid first rounders a few days before the draft could literally go anywhere on draft night. High first, late first, fall into the second.

Draft weekend is one of my favorite weekends of the year. I hope we're picking 32nd soon, and even still, I will never not be excited for that weekend.

 

[blommen]

Probably in March it starts to form up on who is likely to be a top 5-10 pick.

Even still, every single year we see guys who were supposed to go top 5 fall out of the top 12-15 picks. Jonathan Allen. Malik Hooker. A whole variety of guys. Sometimes it's injury-related with the combine medicals. Those medicals tend to be very valuable for teams.

Other times, it's disciplinary like Reuben Foster. Either way, the unpredictability of it all makes it so much fun. Sometimes, impressive numbers at the combine vault a borderline 1st/2nd round guy into the top 10 on draft night, causing others to fall.

Guys that are expected to be mid first rounders a few days before the draft could literally go anywhere on draft night. High first, late first, fall into the second.

Draft weekend is one of my favorite weekends of the year. I hope we're picking 32nd soon, and even still, I will never not be excited for that weekend.

It seems like the talent pool is much, much deeper than in the NBA as well so there's still a reason to project beyond the first round and even into rounds 3-4 etc.

 

[dark2332]

It seems like the talent pool is much, much deeper than in the NBA as well so there's still a reason to project beyond the first round and even into rounds 3-4 etc.

Exactly. In the NBA it's much easier to project the top 5-10 picks. In the NFL, it's all unpredictable. Right now, aside from Nick Bosa and Josh Allen appearing to be the cream of the crop--and that's assuming that their medicals check out at the combine--we simply have no idea. And even still, Bosa or Allen may not go in the top 2-3 picks. There tends to be more wheeling and dealing, especially when someone needs a quarterback. QB's are wild cards. They often are over-drafted. The 1st pick in the draft might end up as a quarterback this year just because a team wanted to jump another to get their guy.

 

[blommen]

Exactly. In the NBA it's much easier to project the top 5-10 picks. In the NFL, it's all unpredictable. Right now, aside from Nick Bosa and Josh Allen appearing to be the cream of the crop--and that's assuming that their medicals check out at the combine--we simply have no idea. And even still, Bosa or Allen may not go in the top 2-3 picks. There tends to be more wheeling and dealing, especially when someone needs a quarterback. QB's are wild cards. They often are over-drafted. The 1st pick in the draft might end up as a quarterback this year just because a team wanted to jump another to get their guy.

You'd think that Quinnen Williams is pretty set in stone with how much he's been talked up over the course of the season, but if all the QB hungry teams decide to trade up and try to get their hands on one or two of the QB prospects that might actually check out, I guess you could see a scenario where he falls out of the top 5.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Antonio Callaway
Under Haley: 5.6 targets per game, 11.2 YPC, 5.2 YPT, 46.7% catch percentage
Under Kitchens: 4.3 targets per game, 15.9 YPC, 10.3 YPT, 64.7% catch percentage

You had a really strong post today, thanks for the breakdown. Looking at Calloway's numbers, I feel like taking a year off also contributed to his difficulties the first half of the season. He would flash potential then make critical mistakes early, and the mistakes just happened less and less as the season wore on. There were weeks where RCF wanted him moved to the fourth receiver, but by the end he looked like a legit starter going into next year.

 

[MGMT]

Man, I think my two favorite offensive skill players are Hockensen and Kelvin Harmon. That over-the-shoulder skill looks like group porn.

@King stamina

 

[CBBI]

Man, I think my two favorite offensive skill players are Hockensen and Kelvin Harmon. That over-the-shoulder skill looks like group porn.

If the Browns are going to continue to run as much 13 personnel (1 WR, 1 RB, 3 TE) in 2019 as often they did after Kitchens took over, then someone like Hockenson makes a ton of sense. He's an upgrade over Fells in every respect and Fells wasn't even that bad this year.

17 is a little too rich, but I don't know if he makes it all the way to 50.

 

[MGMT]

If the Browns are going to continue to run as much 13 personnel (1 WR, 1 RB, 3 TE) in 2019 as often they did after Kitchens took over, then someone like Hockenson makes a ton of sense. He's an upgrade over Fells in every respect and Fells wasn't even that bad this year.

17 is a little too rich, but I don't know if he makes it all the way to 50.

I agree 17 is too high; I prefer a higher defensive impact player or perhaps a fallen tackle prospect pushed down as a result of the defensive talent.

I’d have to think if we obtain better tackle protection, we can cut the personnel to 2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. With a guy like Hockensen, you could presumably go from power formation of 2 TE and 1 RB and flex into an empty backfield with a guy like Duke Johnson.

You can do so much pre-snap motion to create mismatches on first down/short yardage with that kind of group.

 

[Soda]

I think the TE market is rather deep, and that we could see a run in that 2nd-3rd round range. Kaden Smith from Stanford would be another option there as well.

Just would LOVE to add Hockenson’s blend of blocking and athleticism.

What a nightmare for defenses.

I forget what pod I heard it on, but it sounds like LB is also pretty deep this year. We'll see, but I don't think LB in the first. I see DL or OL.