2019 NBA Draft

[Nathan S]

Winston and Tillman both making strong cases to jump into that next tier. Phew. What a phenomenal duo.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Winston and Tillman both making strong cases to jump into that next tier. Phew. What a phenomenal duo.

Tillman is easily the most interesting off the radar guy. He had standout possession based numbers in a more limited role and has maintained them with additional minutes.

Obviously won’t be off the radar after this game but if Izzo brainwashes him in to returning, I’d die.

What is his ceiling? Rockets pick? High teens? He’s obviously going to rise. I think he’s still undersized but one of the only players this year to even remotely defend Zion well.

 

[Futuredome]

Cal's buy them up and let them play AAU ball isn't working anymore. K should retire as he is doing the same thing.

 

[Nathan S]

Tillman is easily the most interesting off the radar guy. He had standout numbers in a more limited role and has maintained them with additional minutes.

Obviously won’t be off the radar after this game but if Izzo brainwashes him in to returning, I’d die.

What is his ceiling? Rockets pick? High teens? He’s obviously going to rise. I think he’s still undersized but one of the only players this year to even remotely defend Zion well.

Who knows after a game like this...tend to agree that this is one of the best defensive performances I've seen vs. Zion all year. And he played a near-perfect game offensively too. Peaking at the right time.

Winston also really deserves a shoutout. 10 assists vs. 1 turnover against Duke is fucking ridiculous. Surely the best game in that department by a point guard vs. Duke all season. He was a magician.

 

[Pioneer10]

Wow: Winston was awesome I thought - played a beautiful classic PG game.

Crazy how Duke can't seem to get Zion any easy buckets. You would think with all the attention he draws they could bait them into backdoors, and isos against smaller guys on the block

 

[Futuredome]

Wow: Winston was awesome I thought - played a beautiful classic PG game.

Crazy how Duke can't seem to get Zion any easy buckets. You would think with all the attention he draws they could bait them into backdoors, and isos against smaller guys on the block

AAU mentalty. Just RJ going down and throwing up a shot......bad bad

 

[I'mWithDan]

Biggest thing with both RJ and Zion is they really need to address their FT shooting in a meaningful way.

It was bound to eventually bite Duke that their two best offensive players are lousy at the foul line.

They should have lost earlier because of it but managed to escape. Turnovers combined with the FT misses doomed them.

 

[red.]

Thoughts?

 

[Nathan S]

Some tweaks to my big board after feedback and the elite 8 games:

Spoiler

1. Zion

2.2. Morant

3.3. Barrett
3.4. Bitadze
3.5. Williams
3.6. Culver

4.7. Bol
4.8. Horton-Tucker
4.9. Claxton
4.10. Jones
4.11. Haliburton
4.12. Winston
4.13. White
4.14. Ponds
4.15. Jerome
4.16. Tillman
4.17. Garland
4.18. Clarke
4.19. Washington

5.20. Okeke
5.21. Hayes
5.22. Langford
5.23. Hunter
5.24. Alexander-Walker
5.25. Thybulle
5.26. Little
5.27. Jontay Porter
5.28. Teske
5.29. Diallo
5.30. Gafford
5.31. Reddish
5.32. Fernando
5.33. Jalen Smith

6.34. Robinson
6.35. Tillie
5.36. Herro
5.37. Norvell
5.38. Hachimura
5.39. Blackshear
5.40. Massinburg
5.41. Doumbouya
5.42. Lawson
5.43. Brazdeikis
5.44. Keldon Johnson
5.45. Zoosman
5.46. Kevin Porter
5.47. Bassey
5.48. Cameron Johnson
5.49. Konchar
5.50. Samanic

Thoughts?

I'll preface this by saying that I'm not super high on Zion's offensive projection, but it's important to realize that for most bigs, a reliance on post ups is a weakness, not a strength. It typically means they don't have a very quick first step, and they don't have a great handle, so they have to rely on craft and footwork to create a shot opportunity without turning the ball over. For Zion, that's not an issue...he has a fantastic handle and a fantastic first step for a player his size, so he can simply blow by his defender, something most bigs couldn't dream of doing. That's what makes him special offensively.

 

[Pioneer10]

AAU mentalty. Just RJ going down and throwing up a shot......bad bad

Coach K hasn't impressed me as a late game tactician. I still remembering him running an ISO for fucking Trajan Langdon at the end of a Final Four game.
Unreal you can't get the ball into the hands of a beast like Zion

 

[sportscoach]

How good is the depth of this draft? I almost feel if the depth is at least good, Gilbert needs to open up his pocket book and get as many second round picks as he can, then store some guys overseas/at Canton without signing them if we don't have the spots for them.

 

[I'mWithDan]

How good is the depth of this draft? I almost feel if the depth is at least good, Gilbert needs to open up his pocket book and get as many second round picks as he can, then store some guys overseas/at Canton without signing them if we don't have the spots for them.

Depth for role player types looks pretty good. Depth for potential stars seems average to below average.

If you consider 2.5 All-Stars roughly come from any given draft, I'm not sure anyone can confidently pick 1.5 other players, beyond Zion, who fit that bill. Ja is probably 1.0 of that 1.5 left over equation but small school guys give some pause, even though most like him. Barrett, people are cooler on for many reasons...some reasonable, some not.

But there are a high number of quality role playing candidates, some with nice ceilings as well. I'd be far more confident telling you who I think the best 6-7 players will be in this draft vs. picking who the 2.5 All Stars might be.

The Cavs have so many second round picks that it is possible for them to likely acquire ones in this draft without spending money, if that is the aim. Better teams may just want to punt on seconds, as it is unlikely that player sticks with them, even a better looking second round role player type and bank a future asset for a deadline trade that is more likely to help them. So the Cavs are possibly an attractive trade partner, if someone wants to delay expending that draft capital.

 

[NMCav]

Thoughts?

I actually agree with Gilbert Arenas. I never thought that would happen in my lifetime. But Zion was just a better athlete then everyone this season in college. Hes a solid passer too but the rest of his game isn't developed. He got blocks and steals in college at a decent rate but isn't really an elite defender. Clearly won't be an elite defender at the NBA level considering hes a 6-6 PF. He has also struggled against other players with size. He struggled vs UCF and Tacko (Outlier since Tacko is 7-6 but he still struggled) also struggled some vs Ward/Tillman of MSU who could match him weight wise.

Its not just about the talent with Zion either you have to worry about injury. Hes been nicked up a couple times this year. Hes 6-6 270-280 his knees are eventually gonna deteriorate with how explosive he is. He does play like a young Blake Griffin coming out of Oklahoma. Just wants to dunk on everyone. But Blake was 6-10 not 6-6 280. Zion is built like a 5 technique in football. He is still going to be the number 1 overall pick but their are really more concerns then the media portrays with Zion. Hes really not the can't miss guy they portray him as and has injury concerns especially a couple years down the road after he has more mileage on his knees.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Thoughts?

Russ Westbrook is 6'7"-6'8"? Arenas is angling for Stephen A's gig.

But in all seriousness, I think the three things he is really discounting are:

1. Zion's straight line explosion, coupled with his vertical athletic gifts. Not only can he (and will he) reliably blow by NBA 4's and 5's but he has the elite athletic gifts to finish over help side players. Will he just impose his will on a team offensively? Probably not but I doubt he's going to struggling to be a plus offensive player, even with the ball in his hands. The player type Gilbert is speaking to is Rui Hachimura, not Zion Williamson. I get what he is saying....and in Rui's case, that is legitimately the concern, his reliance on 2PT FG's in more traditional big man scoring areas.....but with Zion, I think he just isn't evaluating his skillset correctly.

2. He just casually discounts off-ball or transition scoring like it is impossible to do in the NBA, when some of the NBA's most gifted scorers (Klay, Steph, etc.) are additionally great at these skills. Someone might say "well they are shooters" which is true but they are also not being guarded by less skilled 4 and 5 types at the NBA level. It should actually be EASIER for someone as gifted as Zion off the ball, in the NBA.....because it is likely he is defended by players who are just universally not used to constantly paying attention to their man, when he is weak side or 2 passes from the ball. Most coaches ingrain that in to help side defenders brains and that coaching technique kind of assumed someone like Zion would never exist. If you sag off of Zion, he's cutting in to the lane too quickly for a big to recover, for an easy entry and layup.....if you don't sag off of him, he can more easily backdoor you for a lob or receive a back screen to get open......or simply just anchor in the corner to provide gravity and spacing that a traditional off ball big, who's not a great shooter, would normally not be able to supply. He literally just completely fucks up all your defensive rotations when he floats around off the ball because he can so effortlessly transition from off ball player to dangerous offensive threat....and that doesn't even consider then how he additionally scrambles your defense when you have to be worried about all of the above and then a coach instead flashes him from the weak side in to P&R screen action.

3. Zion has insane touch. Touch of someone who is a guard. Maybe he has a bit less refined post game for the NBA but he is able to convert opportunities at a much higher rate than a traditional freakish athlete....because he isn't just shot putting the ball up. That should allow him to skill refine (assuming he has the necessary work ethic), while still being a productive player at each scoring level.

The space and openness of the NBA game is perfectly suited for a player like Zion to succeed, where maybe 10 years ago you could believe more of what Arenas is saying. Now? I'd bet a lot of money his take on transition and off ball scoring for Zion will be laughably bad.

 

[Nathan S]

Here are draft year stats for all first-round international bigs over the last five years, including this year's two top international prospects. I've filled in approximate levels of competition that each of them played at, compared to typical major-conference NCAA level. Can you do a better job than NBA GMs at picking out the stars from the busts? I'll re-post with names later.