2019 NBA Draft

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

I rather have my coach with a 7+ wingspan than a PG or a wing tbh.

 

[RuanuLaw]

Damn, we can't even tank properly. Another win to keep us out of the Top Bottom 3. lol

 

[Nathan S]

Might be a good time to mention that Kaleb Wesson grades out really well on my draft rater. Any Buckeyes basketball fans want to weigh in?

 

[Nathan S]

Latest round of my statistical rankings...dropped Konate, Kabengele, Grimes, and Gafford, added Wesson, Claxton, Dort, Clarke, and Brazdeikis.

I've color-coded players by their rank in Jackson Hoy's newly updated big board: blue for his #1 Zion and #2 Barrett, green for his third tier, yellow for his fourth tier, orange for his fifth tier, and red for sixth tier plus.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

So like any one here watches Ja Morant and Culver?

Ja Morant looks like a much betetr prospect than Sexton. Am I tripping? I'm so sad I havn't been following the draft closely, so i'm going to need you guys to give me a clearer picture.

If we are pick outside the top 1, I can't help but thinkin that RJ Barrett is a trap. I like the guards/PGs more than I like Barrett, and i'm afraid that we wouldn't pick BPA becuase we have Sexton.

Again, I havn't had the chance to watch Ja Morant or Culver other than through tapes.

 

[ajz20]

Might be a good time to mention that Kaleb Wesson grades out really well on my draft rater. Any Buckeyes basketball fans want to weigh in?

Wesson in the top 5 ???? Yikes. Reminds me of when people wanted Sullinger at one. He is taller then Sully, but he should not be confused as a top lottery player on anyone’s board.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

So like any one here watches Ja Morant and Culver?

Ja Morant looks like a much betetr prospect than Sexton. Am I tripping? I'm so sad I havn't been following the draft closely, so i'm going to need you guys to give me a clearer picture.

If we are pick outside the top 1, I can't help but thinkin that RJ Barrett is a trap. I like the guards/PGs more than I like Barrett, and i'm afraid that we wouldn't pick BPA becuase we have Sexton.

Again, I havn't had the chance to watch Ja Morant or Culver other than through tapes.

I've watched a lot of Texas Tech and have been on Culver for awhile. He's not a super high ceiling guy, but can defend the perimeter well and could become a quality secondary creator. His passing has improved this year with an increased workload. His shooting has been solid and he's done better off the dribble this year as well I believe. He's really an all around player, but isn't the best athlete & doesn't have any real stand out elite skill. His game will fit into any system and he has a pretty high floor imo.

I think I've mentioned it some time in the last month on here, but Texas Tech plays Duke this week, and if he has another quality game then you'll see him moved up on draft boards. I've actually seen some people already moving him up in order to try to get a head start on everyone else's rankings lol.

I've not watched as much Morant, but am pretty familiar with him. I would say him vs Sexton aren't far off as far as prospects go. I don't buy the shooting from Morant yet... I've noticed he relies quite a bit on lower body power to shoot - probably compensating for not being strong enough as well as having a pretty severe push shot - which wouldn't bode well for expanding his range to the NBA line. I've seen people be high on his defense as well, which I disagree with. He makes the flash plays because he's a freak athlete, but he is hidden off the ball almost 100% of the time at Murray State. He conserves energy on that end as well, but that's to be expected given his situation. He's rail thin as well, so I wouldn't expect him to be great around screens (I haven't watched him enough to be able to say for sure though).

Overall I expect Morant's shooting to fall off some, while his high turnover rate isn't really indicative of his passing ability I don't think. That's what sets him apart from Sexton the most. I'm not losing sleep over missing out on him because they drafted Sexton by any means, but knowing what we know now I think I'd give the slight edge to Morant. A lot can change though on both sides though to me.

 

[Nathan S]

Wesson in the top 5 ???? Yikes. Reminds me of when people wanted Sullinger at one. He is taller then Sully, but he should not be confused as a top lottery player on anyone’s board.

That's not my big board, to be clear...that's just a table of ratings based on box score stats. And Wessons per-40 box score stats are monstrous: 25.6 points (62% true shooting), 11.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 2.9 steals+blocks. Sullinger, for comparison, was at 23.0 points (59% true shooting), 12.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 2.9 steals+blocks.

Of course, you have to account for the fact that his style of play isn't necessarily a great fit in the modern NBA, and the fact that he's had serious trouble managing his weight. Given that, I think he'd be an interesting guy to grab in the second round (or maybe the late first if he finishes the year strong), not in the lottery let alone the top 5.

 

[Cavatt]

That's not my big board, to be clear...that's just a table of ratings based on box score stats. And Wessons per-40 box score stats are monstrous: 25.6 points (62% true shooting), 11.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 2.9 steals+blocks. Sullinger, for comparison, was at 23.0 points (59% true shooting), 12.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 2.9 steals+blocks.

Of course, you have to account for the fact that his style of play isn't necessarily a great fit in the modern NBA, and the fact that he's had serious trouble managing his weight. Given that, I think he'd be an interesting guy to grab in the second round (or maybe the late first if he finishes the year strong), not in the lottery let alone the top 5.

I am curious what your success rate on late picks is with your draft rater? Did you like Donovan Mitchell or any "hits" like that?

I mean, it does seem like there are always the ones everyone missed, but for the most part the best picks are usually in the top ten. The fact that so many guys that are not going to be lottery picks are favored by your rating system, what does it tell us?

To me it seems like the best front offices seem to pick up guys that can contribute later in the 1st or in the 2nd. To me that says that maybe finding a contributing player is easier than hitting on a total stud in the lottery.

Just wondering what your thoughts are on this. Do you think your rater is better at one thing or the other?

 

[Nathan S]

I am curious what your success rate on late picks is with your draft rater? Did you like Donovan Mitchell or any "hits" like that?

I mean, it does seem like there are always the ones everyone missed, but for the most part the best picks are usually in the top ten. The fact that so many guys that are not going to be lottery picks are favored by your rating system, what does it tell us?

To me it seems like the best front offices seem to pick up guys that can contribute later in the 1st or in the 2nd. To me that says that maybe finding a contributing player is easier than hitting on a total stud in the lottery.

Just wondering what your thoughts are on this. Do you think your rater is better at one thing or the other?

I'd say it does a decent job picking up on late picks. It gave the following past non-lottery guys +3 or better projections: Nick Calathes, Jrue Holiday, Danny Granger, Rodney Stuckey, Ty Lawson, Jae Crowder, Kyle Lowry, Iman Shumpert, Kawhi Leonard, and Lawrence Roberts. In last year's draft, the non-lottery guys who joined that club were Melton, Jevon Carter, and Okogie, all of whom are at least getting some burn.

Of course, some blend of statistical analysis and conventional scouting (basically, using all in information available to its maximum potential) is necessary for reliably good results.

Complete historical results are under the "Historical Ratings" tab in this spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h98LyhYUQHnGQTSMJTj3i_0Lj4iF03oHGeyDDtjWgV8/edit?usp=sharing

It's missing several years from 2013 (?) on, but I can easily run it for individual players (Mitchell for instance clocks in at +2.34, which is pretty solid).

 

[ajz20]

That's not my big board, to be clear...that's just a table of ratings based on box score stats. And Wessons per-40 box score stats are monstrous: 25.6 points (62% true shooting), 11.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 2.9 steals+blocks. Sullinger, for comparison, was at 23.0 points (59% true shooting), 12.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 2.9 steals+blocks.

Of course, you have to account for the fact that his style of play isn't necessarily a great fit in the modern NBA, and the fact that he's had serious trouble managing his weight. Given that, I think he'd be an interesting guy to grab in the second round (or maybe the late first if he finishes the year strong), not in the lottery let alone the top 5.

That would be great if we had second round picks and used them. Hopefully we can get more before or on draft night.
By the way I think he stays all 4 years. He is not projected to be anything more than an end of a rotation guy. He really does not benifit from leaving early.

 

[Cavatt]

That would be great if we had second round picks and used them. Hopefully we can get more before or on draft night.
By the way I think he stays all 4 years. He is not projected to be anything more than an end of a rotation guy. He really does not benifit from leaving early.

We still don't have any for this year right?

 

[Nathan S]

That would be great if we had second round picks and used them. Hopefully we can get more before or on draft night.
By the way I think he stays all 4 years. He is not projected to be anything more than an end of a rotation guy. He really does not benifit from leaving early.

Agree that he probably stays all 4 years, but if he does happen to get a promise even in the second round that would be hard to resist. Even failing that, he's good enough at this point to earn serious money playing overseas.

 

[ajz20]

Agree that he probably stays all 4 years, but if he does happen to get a promise even in the second round that would be hard to resist. Even failing that, he's good enough at this point to earn serious money playing overseas.

Second round promise? That is like getting a promise from the janitor to sit with you at lunch in high school.
The contract is not even guaranteed a single game in most cases.

 

[Nathan S]

Second round promise? That is like getting a promise from the janitor to sit with you at lunch in middle school.
The contract is not even guaranteed a single game in most cases.

You're a few good summer league games away from over a million dollars. No idea what Wesson's family background is, but for a lot of guys that's an enormous amount of money. No reason to stay in college two more years and risk an injury if you're that close to the dream.