2019 NBA Draft

[ajz20]

You're a few good summer league games away from over a million dollars. No idea what Wesson's family background is, but for a lot of guys that's an enormous amount of money. No reason to stay in college two more years and risk an injury if you're that close to the dream.

You are in the same situation as a udfa too. Second round means very little , it is now the type of contract you get. Some free agents that go undrafted get better money now based on how they look in the summer or how much of a priority they are to sign.

 

[Nathan S]

You are in the same situation as a udfa too. Second round means very little , it is now the type of contract you get. Some free agents that go undrafted get better money now based on how they look in the summer or how much of a priority they are to sign.

I dunno how true that is...obviously *some* undrafted guys get more money than *some* second rounders, but second rounders always seem to have the inside track to a roster spot over any undrafted guys. Looking on spotrac, 19 out of 30 second rounders from the 2018 draft got NBA contracts, including all of picks 31-40 and 8 of picks 41-50. So at least mid-high second rounders seem to have near 100% odds.

Anyway, career high 31 for Wesson tonight. I do think he's gonna get drafted sooner or later if he keeps this up.

 

[ajz20]

I dunno how true that is...obviously *some* undrafted guys get more money than *some* second rounders, but second rounders always seem to have the inside track to a roster spot over any undrafted guys. Looking on spotrac, 19 out of 30 second rounders from the 2018 draft got NBA contracts, including all of picks 31-40 and 8 of picks 41-50. So at least mid-high second rounders seem to have near 100% odds.

Anyway, career high 31 for Wesson tonight. I do think he's gonna get drafted sooner or later if he keeps this up.

We will get drafted but his nba potential is not super high, and he projects as a role player off the bench or a guy at the end of a bench. Those guys are available every single year. Love him helping OSU as an alum ( think he would really help make a run at the final four with the incoming class next year ) but nothing to get excited about as a cavs fan ( if when he gets into the nba in a few summers)

 

[I'mWithDan]

Ja Morant looks like a much betetr prospect than Sexton. Am I tripping? I'm so sad I havn't been following the draft closely, so i'm going to need you guys to give me a clearer picture..

Ja has a better frame and certainly is miles better as a passer......Collin has quicker, more reliable mechanics and (I think) a better first step. I'd give the nod to Morant because of his length, dribble feel and creation potential but it's close. They are both mid lotto ish guys with different strengths. Collin has a higher floor, Morant has a higher ceiling.

The big questions with Morant are can he cut down on his TO's? Will his frame hold up against NBA level guys? And is he tapped out as a 30% 3PT shooter? If he's stuck as a sub par shooter, what is he?

If we are pick outside the top 1, I can't help but thinkin that RJ Barrett is a trap. I like the guards/PGs more than I like Barrett, and i'm afraid that we wouldn't pick BPA becuase we have Sexton.

I don't think any of these PG's are transcendent. Maybe you like them a bit more than Sexton but that is a terrible draft strategy (even if they are BPA) IMO. There are PG's in every draft and the 2020 class looks better than this (Cole Anthony, Mannion, Maledon, etc.). I'd rather see a second year of Sexton, with another quality young player and other roster improvements, than draft over him after a single season.

Why is RJ a trap? I think his floor is incredibly high and he's a really nice match with Sexton (wing creator who can initiate offense). His numbers have gotten better and better and he's showing more pop on the defensive end (2.25 BLK+STL per game in December). Assuming he plays as well as he has over the last 5-6 games, he's a slam dunk top 2 pick.

 

[Nathan S]

We will get drafted but his nba potential is not super high, and he projects as a role player off the bench or a guy at the end of a bench. Those guys are available every single year. Love him helping OSU as an alum ( think he would really help make a run at the final four with the incoming class next year ) but nothing to get excited about as a cavs fan ( if when he gets into the nba in a few summers)

I think he's interesting mainly because his ceiling is pretty high. His most likely case may be end-of-the-bench or a 15 minute per game guy, but if he actually gets himself in shape, like down to 240-250 or so, he could be really good. The fact that he's so successful at the college level in spite of barely being able to jump is incredible...he weight is really the only reason he's not playing 30+ minutes and averaging 20+/10+ per game IMO.

To be clear, I think the odds that he actually gets in great shape are pretty low, but if we're talking about ceiling it's an important consideration.

Ja has a better frame and certainly is miles better as a passer......Collin has quicker, more reliable mechanics and (I think) a better first step. I'd give the nod to Morant because of his length, dribble feel and creation potential but it's close. They are both mid lotto ish guys with different strengths. Collin has a higher floor, Morant has a higher ceiling.

The big questions with Morant are can he cut down on his TO's? Will his frame hold up against NBA level guys? And is he tapped out as a 30% 3PT shooter? If he's stuck as a sub par shooter, what is he?



I don't think any of these PG's are transcendent. Maybe you like them a bit more than Sexton but that is a terrible draft strategy (even if they are BPA) IMO. There are PG's in every draft and the 2020 class looks better than this (Cole Anthony, Mannion, Maledon, etc.). I'd rather see a second year of Sexton, with another quality young player and other roster improvements, than draft over him after a single season.

Why is RJ a trap? I think his floor is incredibly high and he's a really nice match with Sexton (wing creator who can initiate offense). His numbers have gotten better and better and he's showing more pop on the defensive end (2.25 BLK+STL per game in December). Assuming he plays as well as he has over the last 5-6 games, he's a slam dunk top 2 pick.

Earlier I listed the +3 or better guys who weren't drafted in the lottery. Here are the +3 or better guys who were picked top-5: Irving, Harden, Conley, Durant, Melo, AD, Cousins. Last draft Jaren Jackson joined the club, and he's looking pretty damn good. So basically, when my draft rater agrees with popular consensus, it's almost never wrong.*

This draft, Zion's a mortal lock to join the club and Barrett probably will too. I was cool on him to start the year, but he's looking more and more like a sure thing.


*Disclaimer: I haven't run it on Fultz/Ball, but they'd probably have +3 or better ratings...so, not meaning to imply it's entirely foolproof.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

I think he's interesting mainly because his ceiling is pretty high. His most likely case may be end-of-the-bench or a 15 minute per game guy, but if he actually gets himself in shape, like down to 240-250 or so, he could be really good. The fact that he's so successful at the college level in spite of barely being able to jump is incredible...he weight is really the only reason he's not playing 30+ minutes and averaging 20+/10+ per game IMO.

To be clear, I think the odds that he actually gets in great shape are pretty low, but if we're talking about ceiling it's an important consideration.




Earlier I listed the +3 or better guys who weren't drafted in the lottery. Here are the +3 or better guys who were picked top-5: Irving, Harden, Conley, Durant, Melo, AD, Cousins. Last draft Jaren Jackson joined the club, and he's looking pretty damn good. So basically, when my draft rater agrees with popular consensus, it's almost never wrong.*

This draft, Zion's a mortal lock to join the club and Barrett probably will too. I was cool on him to start the year, but he's looking more and more like a sure thing.


*Disclaimer: I haven't run it on Fultz/Ball, but they'd probably have +3 or better ratings...so, not meaning to imply it's entirely foolproof.

Barrett is not a sure thing. Don't care about your analytics.

He struggles to create any separation with the ball. He doesn't have any reliable pull up game. Not a particularly good passer or willing one. Okay defender in College, but I don't expect him to be good in the NBA...clusmy, doesn't contest shots well, awkward gait.

What he does is bully his way to the basket. He is a competitor. He forces things and it is okay in College, but I'm afraid it might not work in the NBA.

He is lucky he shares the ball with such good players. The spacing and the gravity that they provide help him a ton (assists, driving lanes, etc).

Ja has a better frame and certainly is miles better as a passer......Collin has quicker, more reliable mechanics and (I think) a better first step. I'd give the nod to Morant because of his length, dribble feel and creation potential but it's close. They are both mid lotto ish guys with different strengths. Collin has a higher floor, Morant has a higher ceiling.


The big questions with Morant are can he cut down on his TO's? Will his frame hold up against NBA level guys? And is he tapped out as a 30% 3PT shooter? If he's stuck as a sub par shooter, what is he?



I don't think any of these PG's are transcendent. Maybe you like them a bit more than Sexton but that is a terrible draft strategy (even if they are BPA) IMO. There are PG's in every draft and the 2020 class looks better than this (Cole Anthony, Mannion, Maledon, etc.). I'd rather see a second year of Sexton, with another quality young player and other roster improvements, than draft over him after a single season.

Why is RJ a trap? I think his floor is incredibly high and he's a really nice match with Sexton (wing creator who can initiate offense). His numbers have gotten better and better and he's showing more pop on the defensive end (2.25 BLK+STL per game in December). Assuming he plays as well as he has over the last 5-6 games, he's a slam dunk top 2 pick.

^ Above.

I think there is a value in trading down personally. No, I don't believe he is a Doncic type talent. This draft is deeper than what we were led to believe.

 

[Nathan S]

Barrett is not a sure thing. Don't care about your analytics.

He struggles to create any separation with the ball. He doesn't have any reliable pull up game. Not a particularly good passer or willing one. Okay defender in College, but I don't expect him to be good in the NBA...clusmy, doesn't contest shots well, awkward gait.

What he does is bully his way to the basket. He is a competitor. He forces things and it is okay in College, but I'm afraid it might not work in the NBA.

He is lucky he shares the ball with such good players. The spacing and the gravity that they provide help him a ton (assists, driving lanes, etc).

This in particular is a very good point...in particular, he's shooting a ton of spot-up threes that he would never get if he was on a typical team.

His 4+ assists per game is legit though, and he has a really solid assist:TO ratio too for a volume scorer type. I think he has real potential to be a lead ballhandler at the NBA level, and that's rare and valuable in a player his size.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

This in particular is a very good point...in particular, he's shooting a ton of spot-up threes that he would never get if he was on a typical team.

His 4+ assists per game is legit though, and he has a really solid assist:TO ratio too for a volume scorer type. I think he has real potential to be a lead ballhandler at the NBA level, and that's rare and valuable in a player his size.

I just don't agree here.

He gets a lot of assists in transition, and his passes are just not very accurate and his touch doesn't seem that great to me.

I have a lot of issues with how he looks like on the floor. His movement is awkward, his dribble is awkward and again, he doesn't create separation either pulling him or going to the basket.

We will see how he fares against better competition.

 

[Nathan S]

I just don't agree here.

He gets a lot of assists in transition, and his passes are just not very accurate and his touch doesn't seem that great to me.

I have a lot of issues with how he looks like on the floor. His movement is awkward, his dribble is awkward and again, he doesn't create separation either pulling him or going to the basket.

We will see how he fares against better competition.

Sure, but the kid's 18 years old. Not every 18 year old has it figured out like Luka did. RJ just needs to make steady, predictable progress like most 18-year-olds make, and he'll be on track to be a star.

Granted, I've already changed my opinion about him multiple times, so I could end up hating him again by the end of the season. But for now, I like him and would take him #2 overall pretty quickly.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Sure, but the kid's 18 years old. Not every 18 year old has it figured out like Luka did. RJ just needs to make steady, predictable progress like most 18-year-olds make, and he'll be on track to be a star.

Granted, I've already changed my opinion about him multiple times, so I could end up hating him again by the end of the season. But for now, I like him and would take him #2 overall pretty quickly.

I also don't like the fit with anyone on our team.

 

[Nathan S]

I also don't like the fit with anyone on our team.

Well, better than a PG like Morant who pretty obviously can't share the court with Sexton. What non-PG (and non-Zion) in this draft has clearly more upside than Barrett?

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Well, better than a PG like Morant who pretty obviously can't share the court with Sexton. What non-PG (and non-Zion) in this draft has clearly more upside than Barrett?

Will have to wait for conference play for that.

Though, I'm intrigued by Bol Bol. His big problem is his frame..other than that he is a very special offensive prospect. Bamba gets bullied in the post, so yeah...Bol Bol is probably weaker with a much worse frame.

 

[Nathan S]

Will have to wait for conference play for that.

Though, I'm intrigued by Bol Bol. His big problem is his frame..other than that he is a very special offensive prospect. Bamba gets bullied in the post, so yeah...

Yeah, I was high on Bol, but after seeing how Bamba's struggled defensively...yeeesh...Bol has all the same problems, but worse.

I still like him in the top-5, but I'm starting to agree with what's been popular consensus for a while, that in spite of being 7'3" he may actually be one of the worst defensive centers in the NBA. That's a problem.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I just don't agree here.

He gets a lot of assists in transition, and his passes are just not very accurate and his touch doesn't seem that great to me.

I have a lot of issues with how he looks like on the floor. His movement is awkward, his dribble is awkward and again, he doesn't create separation either pulling him or going to the basket.

We will see how he fares against better competition.

Per Hoop-Math, he's already shot 98 times at the rim this season. Zion has shot 101 times for comparison sake. How can you possibly quantify how that would be possible if Barrett didn't create separation off the dribble? When 60% of those shots are unassisted? How can a guy get to the rim that much, having played against a handful of NBA wings already, without a capable first step? or the ability to fend off contact? Or finish over length? Can you find a wing player that can generate nearly 50% of his shot attempts in the paint and not be an effective player with the ball?

What about RJ makes him an awkward dribbler? What specifically? He is a really smooth athlete for his size and can drive reliably in either direction.....and he has great functional athleticism with the ball in his hands. I don't get the dribble criticism at all. Is he an elite handle? No, is he good to very good? Yes. What is your comp to him as a dribbler given the off the bounce variety he has shown? What other player has been capable of executing so many NBA level counters and been awkward dribbling the ball?

Having watched most of his games, I'm also not sure where you get the transition assist viewpoint. I need to pull a chart but I'd bet money that (at minimum) 2/3rds of his assists are in the half-court.

He's also putting up absolutely obscene box score numbers. 24/7/4 on 45% shooting (Barrett is at 48+%) has only been done 3 times in NCAA history. None by a major conference player. He needs to get in to the meat of his schedule but he's on an absurd statistical pace for someone with his frame and skillset. Just to underscore how uncommon it is for someone to be this capable as a point forward, even if you lower the assist threshold by 25% (3), you still only get back 5 college players, again, none major conference. The last player to do it was 11 years ago.

Barrett isn't flawless but the combination of his frame, player profile and assist output is incredibly, incredibly rare.

 

[Cavatt]

Barret looks like he is moving at half speed to me. I think he might have another gear when he gets into an NBA workout regimen.

I agree about his handle. Is it better than Cedi's who has been targeted in that way? I don't think it is. It's pretty loose. I think he might have trouble in NBA traffic. Still, he has come a long way from high school where his handle looked very sloppy IMO.