2019 NBA Draft

[Nathan S]

General thoughts about last night....

How does everyone feel about Zion? I think, athletically, you kind of have to take him but I am really luke warm on him as a #1 option at the NBA level. He's just really one dimensional with the basketball and his shot is awful. It's a testament that he can effect a game like he can while being a massive negative shooting outside of 5 feet (and also not being a very gifted ball handler). He basically has a single dribble move that will not work consistently at the next level IMO (drive right, spin left)......he is just going to have to go to a situation with good player development for him to reach his ceiling IMO. I still take him #1 but he's going to go through some growing pains.

Barrett....was meh last night. He had a few spurts where he positively impacted the game for a stretch but he was incredibly sloppy with the ball and his shot just wasn't there. Looked like he really started to press, as Duke fell behind and no one was doing anything. He got good looks but just could not get anything to go down. He played solid defense, save 2-3 possessions and he's at least showing more of a willingness to guard. With the team he's on, I hope to see him develop more feel on off nights. Instead of trying to fly through the brick wall, I'd like to see him shift in to point forward mode. He tried to do that later in the 2nd half and guys missed some nice looks he created but he needs to stick with it in games where his shot isn't falling. He has really talented teammates and in close games, he needs to trust that they will eventually make shots.

Cam.....he's going to lose a lot of money over the next few months if this is what he is. His TO rate has been utterly atrocious when matched with his usage. Someone on Duke's staff seriously needs to pull him aside and say "I know this isn't the role you necessarily want but you can be a top 5 pick if you do 3 things (1.) Shoot 3's (2.) Play good defense (3.) Shot fake, one dribble and pull up when you are closed out on. That's it. Stop trying to do other things."

Culver......I think he's a really comparable guy to Cam.....or I'd imagine this is what Cam would look like on a different team. I thought he moved well last night and athletically looked better than he has in previous games. Nice box score night but did disappear a bit when Duke made their run. I like him more than I did in the few game tapes I have watched of him......I think he's an ideal #2 option at the next level, just given his range of skills. This is another guy that is filed under "it's so depressing we didn't land Luka".

A completely non radar 1st rounder but I'm kind of intrigued by DeLaurier, as an energy bench big at the NBA level. He's really active, bouncy and looks to have nice defensive awareness. Probably a later second or un-drafted guy but he strikes me as someone who could stick in the league is he lands on the right team.

Plot twist: I'm drafting Zion mostly for his defense.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Plot twist: I'm drafting Zion mostly for his defense.

What is your personal view on his defensive ceiling? DPOY? I admittedly don't have a great handle on it.

He has really no ceiling as a help side defender, I'm just not sure who he can guard on the perimeter (quite frankly, maybe this doesn't matter). It may be everyone, he's just not asked to do it.....and if his man does drift out there, he tends to pass him off to a perimeter player.

Are you at all concerned that his somewhat out of control dribble style will keep him off the court in the NBA? Last night being an example. He has done a great job thus far of limiting careless fouls but if you're drafting him as a defensive anchor, he needs to be more mindful on offense, of not picking up the type of fouls that will hamper his aggressiveness on defense.

I agree he makes more sense to me, through the prism of a supercharged Draymond (with more offensive upside).

 

[MD13]

Plot twist: I'm drafting Zion mostly for his defense.

He has a couple of plays a game as a help side defender that just make me get up off my seat. I think with more experience he could be an absolute terror on that end. This play is just unbelievable functional athleticism.

View: https://twitter.com/ZachMilner13/status/1075924246855962625?s=19

 

[Nathan S]

What is your personal view on his defensive ceiling? DPOY? I admittedly don't have a great handle on it.

He has really no ceiling as a help side defender, I'm just not sure who he can guard on the perimeter (quite frankly, maybe this doesn't matter). It may be everyone, he's just not asked to do it.....and if his man does drift out there, he tends to pass him off to a perimeter player.

Are you at all concerned that his somewhat out of control dribble style will keep him off the court in the NBA? Last night being an example. He has done a great job thus far of limiting careless fouls but if you're drafting him as a defensive anchor, he needs to be more mindful on offense, of not picking up the type of fouls that will hamper his aggressiveness on defense.

I agree he makes more sense to me, through the prism of a supercharged Draymond (with more offensive upside).

I think he has a DPOY ceiling...I haven't made a point of watching him defend the perimeter, but anecdotally I haven't seen many guards successfully attack him off the dribble. Most don't dare to try, even if they have a mismatch in theory. He's just ridiculously quick for his size, and he's an absolute expert at blocking shots from behind on the rare occasion that a guard does manage to get a step on him. He's the complete package in that he not only has the rare physical tools to defend 1-5, but also the intelligence and eagerness to learn that's necessary to become a great defender. Like you said, basically, a supercharged Draymond Green on that end.

I do think he's a significantly weaker offensive prospect than most people seem to think, but this is mitigated somewhat by his (usually) good judgement. He's not a guy who stands around and waits for someone to pass him the ball, and he doesn't sulk or get disengaged when he doesn't get his touches. He seems to have a really mature, team-first attitude where he only looks to score if he thinks he can get a high-percentage shot. And when he doesn't have the ball you can really see him analyzing the court every second, ready to pick his moment to cut to the basket or make himself available for a pass back out to the perimeter if necessary. Even if he tops out averaging "only" in the 15-20 ppg range I think he'll still be a solid #2 guy offensively thanks to all the other skills he brings to the table.

 

[MD13]

I think he has a DPOY ceiling...I haven't made a point of watching him defend the perimeter, but anecdotally I haven't seen many guards successfully attack him off the dribble. Most don't dare to try, even if they have a mismatch in theory. He's just ridiculously quick for his size, and he's an absolute expert at blocking shots from behind on the rare occasion that a guard does manage to get a step on him. He's the complete package in that he not only has the rare physical tools to defend 1-5, but also the intelligence and eagerness to learn that's necessary to become a great defender. Like you said, basically, a supercharged Draymond Green on that end.

I do think he's a significantly weaker offensive prospect than most people seem to think, but this is mitigated somewhat by his (usually) good judgement. He's not a guy who stands around and waits for someone to pass him the ball, and he doesn't sulk or get disengaged when he doesn't get his touches. He seems to have a really mature, team-first attitude where he only looks to score if he thinks he can get a high-percentage shot. And when he doesn't have the ball you can really see him analyzing the court every second, ready to pick his moment to cut to the basket or make himself available for a pass back out to the perimeter if necessary. Even if he tops out averaging "only" in the 15-20 ppg range I think he'll still be a solid #2 guy offensively thanks to all the other skills he brings to the table.

How would you say he profiles as a rebounder? Is it only good, or could he be an absolutely elite rebounder that changes games? On the offensive end at least it looks like he could lead the league in O-boards based off the eye test, his second and third jumps are as elite as it gets.

 

[Nathan S]

How would you say he profiles as a rebounder? Is it only good, or could he be an absolutely elite rebounder that changes games? On the offensive end at least it looks like he could lead the league in O-boards based off the eye test, his second and third jumps are as elite as it gets.

I'm not sure I see him as a likely top-10 rebounder in the league in the most likely case, but I think he'll be a good enough rebounder to play small-ball center like Draymond does. The Cavs could pair him with Love and you're looking at one of the best offensive frontcourts in the NBA, pair him with Nance and you're looking at one of the best defensive frontcourts in the NBA, or simply put him on the court with three wings and a point guard for a much better version of our current small-ball lineups. Lots of possibilities thanks to his positional versatility.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Per Hoop-Math, he's already shot 98 times at the rim this season. Zion has shot 101 times for comparison sake. How can you possibly quantify how that would be possible if Barrett didn't create separation off the dribble? When 60% of those shots are unassisted? How can a guy get to the rim that much, having played against a handful of NBA wings already, without a capable first step? or the ability to fend off contact? Or finish over length? Can you find a wing player that can generate nearly 50% of his shot attempts in the paint and not be an effective player with the ball?

It's how he gets to the rim.

At this point I don't care how much attempts he has at the rim and how efficient he is at the rim either. Like I said, he forces his way inside by being stronger, taller and by pushing off. What he doesn't do is blow by his defender (like ever), and thus create easy opportunities for himself and above all his teammates. He doesn't create breakdowns because he just doesn't have the burst to blow by anyone, or the dribbling(hesis, crossovers, etc) to put the defenders on skates. He also doesn't create any separation on the perimeter, nor does it matter because his pull up is just not good.

What about RJ makes him an awkward dribbler? What specifically? He is a really smooth athlete for his size and can drive reliably in either direction.....and he has great functional athleticism with the ball in his hands. I don't get the dribble criticism at all. Is he an elite handle? No, is he good to very good? Yes. What is your comp to him as a dribbler given the off the bounce variety he has shown? What other player has been capable of executing so many NBA level counters and been awkward dribbling the ball?

Smooth? he is rigid as heck.

Reliably maybe in College, but I have seen coutnless of times where he lost his dribble going to his right. This won't fly in the NBA.

Saying that he has very good dribble is crazy to me. What makes his dribble even remotely good? he doesn't have much moves at all nor does he have a tight handle. Another thing is how he attacks the basket. He has awkard gait(duck feet) and a high dribble. He doesn't get low enough, and instead of bending from his hips, he bends from his legs. This slows him down tremednously and makes him look and act clumsy.

His dribble is hella loose in transition and even in the half corut where he dribbles in one spot. He is just awkard with or without the ball to be honest. I don't see how he will get by defenders in the NBA. I see him forcing a lot by shooting over defenders.

I don't care whether people agree with me or not, but the way he attacks the basket and dribbles is very similar to Rodney Hood in the NBA. Because he doesn't get by defenders off the dribble he has that baseline spin (similar to Hood) and jumper/floater. Eek.

Having watched most of his games, I'm also not sure where you get the transition assist viewpoint. I need to pull a chart but I'd bet money that (at minimum) 2/3rds of his assists are in the half-court.

Dunno. I don't have the data.

His passes seem all over the place in the half court. They are almost never in the shooter's pocket, they lack touch and good velocity. Don't see him as a good passer at all.

He's also putting up absolutely obscene box score numbers. 24/7/4 on 45% shooting (Barrett is at 48+%) has only been done 3 times in NCAA history. None by a major conference player. He needs to get in to the meat of his schedule but he's on an absurd statistical pace for someone with his frame and skillset. Just to underscore how uncommon it is for someone to be this capable as a point forward, even if you lower the assist threshold by 25% (3), you still only get back 5 college players, again, none major conference. The last player to do it was 11 years ago.

Yeah, i'm putting aside his box score numbers. Though, I really don't expect it to last.

Barrett isn't flawless but the combination of his frame, player profile and assist output is incredibly, incredibly rare.

Don't see it with him. Non of his skills are high level skills in the NBA that are surely translatable. Poor defender, poor spot-up shooter, mediocre pull-up, mediocre cutter off the ball...what's so special about him?

I didn't really touch it, but his defense is abysmal on and off the ball. His lateral quickness is terrible, he is poor moving his feet in isolation and he gets stuck on screens on and off the ball. His awareness and effort off the ball are poor. His technique is terrible (His posture and legs look like they affect his ability to move his feet laterally). He is also is and will never be a good weak side defender.

Really, what makes him better than Culver?

Gun to my head, I still pick Reddish despite his really poor year. I hate Barrets fit with the team and his skillset. I really, really think that his killset and his mentality will never mesh with the team, and he isn't good enough to ignore that.

Reddish at least has shown me that he has all the tools and ability to be an elite defender in this league. And that does not mean i'm going to pick him with a top 3 pick obviously.

Maybe i'm a hater, but I think you are missing a lot of things in regards to Barret. Nonetheless, Zion is a sure thing and is on a completely different tier as a player and as a person.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Nonetheless, Zion is a sure thing and is on a completely different tier as a player and as a person.

I think this is potentially a situation where you don't personally like a prospect for some reason, which is fine. But this comment is bizarre at face value. "As a person?". I have had a few off the cuff conversations with people who have scouted Barrett and everyone says he's similar to LeBron, in that many are in disbelief his nose is as clean as it is, with how long he has spent in the spotlight as a younger prospect. He described him as just genuinely a good person who wants to be great at basketball. I don't know if he will be (great) but his character assessment will be as good as it gets. He's polite, he doesn't miss class, he works hard and has a competitive streak. He's everything you want in a person, who will be drafted as the face and leader of your franchise.

I don't think it's productive to do a blow by blow of everything you had said but the one thing I think you are really, really underestimating is how hard it is for NBA wing prospects to produce assists. If you look at Barrett vs. other highly ranked wing players, I mean, it's not even close. You're trying to make a very subjective assessment of how he produces them, one I think is very wrong but putting that point aside:

Freshman year assist outputs:

Jabari Parker: 1.2 (12.6 TOV%)
Paul George: 1.7 (16.0 TOV%)
Stanley Johnson: 1.7 (14.7 TOV%)
Andrew Wiggins: 1.9 (13.1 TOV%)
Brandon Ingram: 2.0 (11.3 TOV%)
Jaylen Brown: 2.0 (16.5 TOV%)
Jayson Tatum: 2.1 (16.3 TOV%)
Evan Turner: 2.6 (26.1 TOV%)
Josh Jackson: 3.0 (15.9 TOV%)
RJ Barrett: 3.8 (10.7 TOV%)
Ben Simmons: 4.8 (18.5 TOV%)

He has the second highest assist number and the lowest TOV%. Again, he'll need to sustain this but 8 of those other 10 guys couldn't even eclipse the 3 assist mark as freshman and they all played heavy minutes.

I don't believe he's in Simmons tier as a passer but the fact that he is doing it, with such a low TO output is really rare. He even posted a 6 TO night and his TOV% barely moved. That is how good he has been protecting the ball and finding open players.

As for his handle.....go do the research and dig up how many times he's charted as having the ball stolen from him.....and then go divide it by the number of dribble opportunities he has had. Give me that number. I don't want to have a subjective esthetic conversation on how he dribbles the ball and I want someone to show me evidence that points to him potentially struggling at the next level as a point forward. I also really don't get where you are pulling the "he doesn't have much moves at all nor does he have a tight handle".......have you seen his highlight package to this point? Gonzaga was soured by the finish but a clinic in how powerful he can be off the bounce.


I don't feel like documenting every move here but it's pretty easy to check off...... hesitation (both hands), between the legs (both hands), behind the back to his off hand, euro, pull up, show and go.....he doesn't have an elite handle but for his size and with his strength, it is plenty good to play point forward at the NBA level. Plenty of passing highlights to refute the vision stuff too.

I honestly think you just don't like him as a college player, which is fine..... his style of play can be abrasive on off nights, given his teammates but I think you are missing the mark on him as an NBA prospect. But I'm just a random dude on RCF.

 

[Cavatt]

I think this is potentially a situation where you don't personally like a prospect for some reason, which is fine. But this comment is bizarre at face value. "As a person?". I have had a few off the cuff conversations with people who have scouted Barrett and everyone says he's similar to LeBron, in that many are in disbelief his nose is as clean as it is, with how long he has spent in the spotlight as a younger prospect. He described him as just genuinely a good person who wants to be great at basketball. I don't know if he will be (great) but his character assessment will be as good as it gets. He's polite, he doesn't miss class, he works hard and has a competitive streak. He's everything you want in a person, who will be drafted as the face and leader of your franchise.

I don't think it's productive to do a blow by blow of everything you had said but the one thing I think you are really, really underestimating is how hard it is for NBA wing prospects to produce assists. If you look at Barrett vs. other highly ranked wing players, I mean, it's not even close. You're trying to make a very subjective assessment of how he produces them, one I think is very wrong but putting that point aside:

Freshman year assist outputs:

Jabari Parker: 1.2 (12.6 TOV%)
Paul George: 1.7 (16.0 TOV%)
Stanley Johnson: 1.7 (14.7 TOV%)
Andrew Wiggins: 1.9 (13.1 TOV%)
Brandon Ingram: 2.0 (11.3 TOV%)
Jaylen Brown: 2.0 (16.5 TOV%)
Jayson Tatum: 2.1 (16.3 TOV%)
Evan Turner: 2.6 (26.1 TOV%)
Josh Jackson: 3.0 (15.9 TOV%)
RJ Barrett: 3.8 (10.7 TOV%)
Ben Simmons: 4.8 (18.5 TOV%)

He has the second highest assist number and the lowest TOV%. Again, he'll need to sustain this but 8 of those other 10 guys couldn't even eclipse the 3 assist mark as freshman and they all played heavy minutes.

I don't believe he's in Simmons tier as a passer but the fact that he is doing it, with such a low TO output is really rare. He even posted a 6 TO night and his TOV% barely moved. That is how good he has been protecting the ball and finding open players.

As for his handle.....go do the research and dig up how many times he's charted as having the ball stolen from him.....and then go divide it by the number of dribble opportunities he has had. Give me that number. I don't want to have a subjective esthetic conversation on how he dribbles the ball and I want someone to show me evidence that points to him potentially struggling at the next level as a point forward. I also really don't get where you are pulling the "he doesn't have much moves at all nor does he have a tight handle".......have you seen his highlight package to this point? Gonzaga was soured by the finish but a clinic in how powerful he can be off the bounce.


I don't feel like documenting every move here but it's pretty easy to check off...... hesitation (both hands), between the legs (both hands), behind the back to his off hand, euro, pull up, show and go.....he doesn't have an elite handle but for his size and with his strength, it is plenty good to play point forward at the NBA level. Plenty of passing highlights to refute the vision stuff too.

I honestly think you just don't like him as a college player, which is fine..... his style of play can be abrasive on off nights, given his teammates but I think you are missing the mark on him as an NBA prospect. But I'm just a random dude on RCF.

I have to say his Dribble looks very loose to me as well. The thing that the does that I really like though is that he is probably equally good or close to it with his right hand. So, when I watch those highlights I notice that he automatically shifts hands to the opposite side of the defender no matter which side they are on. Hid dribble seems high to me, but he uses that to his advantage by keeping it as far from the defender as he can.

Especially in those highlights it looks like he has it on a string even if it is high and somewhat erratic.

I'd gladly take him at 2, I would still take Zion at one. I'd put Cedi at the 2 where has a size advantage, put Barret at the 3. Then you have 3 guys that can attack you off the dribble and Kevin Love. That is would be pretty fun I think. IF Collin takes more 3's and Cedi gets his 3 ball under control, that is not a bad start for us.

 

[Nathan S]

Good game between Murray State and Auburn. Morant and Okeke both playing really well, both very interesting prospects if the Cavs end up with a pick in the mid first.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Good game between Murray State and Auburn. Morant and Okeke both playing really well, both very interesting prospects if the Cavs end up with a pick in the mid first.

Morant will probably end up between 3-10.

 

[Nathan S]

Morant will probably end up between 3-10.

It's possible...he's going to be one of the toughest guys to evaluate. Obviously if you buy his jumpshot and his point guard skills, he's the real deal. But if he just projects to be a pint-sized slasher scorer? How useful is a player like that? We've seen with Sexton that the answer appears to be "not very useful."

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

It's possible...he's going to be one of the toughest guys to evaluate. Obviously if you buy his jumpshot and his point guard skills, he's the real deal. But if he just projects to be a pint-sized slasher scorer? How useful is a player like that? We've seen with Sexton that the answer appears to be "not very useful."

Who does he remind you of? Westbrook?

He is a much craftier finisher than Sexton and on a different tier as a ball handler, passer, etc. Just more fluid overall.

 

[Nathan S]

Who does he remind you of? Westbrook?

He is a much craftier finisher than Sexton and on a different tier as a ball handler, passer, etc. Just more fluid overall.

I don't dislike Morant as a prospect (except that I think he's a poor fit with Sexton), but I'll play devil's advocate here.

You can say he's a better finisher now than Sexton was last year...but last year both were freshmen, and Sexton was clearly a better finisher. As for his ballhandling and passing, in two games against major-conference teams he's tallied 12 assists and 15 turnovers. Is that an accurate representation of how bad his assist:TO numbers would be if he was playing major-conference opponents full time? I'm not sure. I watched most of this game, so for once I'm not just pulling stats out of my ass ( ). He has some skills as a passer, but (as was the case with Sexton) he doesn't strike me as a heady floor general type who I can easily imagine running an NBA offense.

Finally, his jumpshot is seriously suspect. Half of his makes this year came in a single game against a worthless Missouri State team, and other than that he's been shooting bricks. His solid free throw percentage is reason for optimism, but he may never be a reliable off-the-dribble shooter.

Westbrook is a nonsense comparison in my opinion because Morant has such a slender frame. Even on an NBA "diet" (wink wink) he probably tops out around 190 pounds. At that size I'm not sure he can utilize his athleticism in the paint the same way bigger athletic guards like Westbrook can.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Another guy that can get picked up late that would be a god-send to a young team like the Cavs is Dylan Windler from Belmont.

He's probably my favorite senior in the entire draft. BBall IQ is off the charts on both ends. Can shoot on the move with NBA range. Not athletic and doesn't play physically, but has flashed finishing with either hand in games I've watch. He also has great size for a wing at 6'8".

Guy just screams GSW 2nd rounder to me.