2019 NBA Draft

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Stupid draft. Too many injuries.

This draft looks like it will have Zion as by far the best talent and other players in the late lottery that will be better than players picked before them.

We need the luck of the gods. 1 is where it's at...everything else is dangerous territory.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Stupid draft. Too many injuries.

This draft looks like it will have Zion as by far the best talent and other players in the late lottery that will be better than players picked before them.

We need the luck of the gods. 1 is where it's at...everything else is dangerous territory.

Have you watched Jarrett Culver much? I know I've mentioned him a lot in here, but he continues to impress me.

He's my number two guy right now probably.

 

[Nathan S]

Have you watched Jarrett Culver much? I know I've mentioned him a lot in here, but he continues to impress me.

He's my number two guy right now probably.

I still like him, but he's gone looooong stretches the last couple games playing second (or even third) fiddle for some reason. Kinda weird, and not the development I'd like to see from a prospective mid-high lottery pick.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

I still like him, but he's gone looooong stretches the last couple games playing second (or even third) fiddle for some reason. Kinda weird, and not the development I'd like to see from a prospective mid-high lottery pick.

He's had a bigger year-over-year development than any other guy in this draft probably lol so idk what you're looking for in that regard. He was almost strictly an off-ball player last year, to now being near 30% usage WHILE improving tremendously. He's made tweaks to his shot release since last year as well. It bears out besides just a role change. His assist rate jumped from 13.7% to 30.4% - that's insane. Meanwhile his TOV rate has gone up just 0.2%. His two-point percentage has gone from 51.4% to 61.2%, yet he's probably had to create more two-point shots for himself this year than he did last year. The defensive numbers are slightly down in part because Keenan Evans is gone and they now have Matt Mooney. Shit, I mean he's even grown an inch or two also lol.

I've not seen any games where he was second or third fiddle at all and I've watched them quite a bit. He is almost the entirety of their offense besides Mooney. They run almost everything through him. The Kansas State game was basically his first inefficient game all season - I've not watched that one. The WVU game he had foul trouble in the first half, then scored 18 points in the second half as they blew the game open riding him on offense.

 

[Nathan S]

He's had a bigger year-over-year development than any other guy in this draft probably lol so idk what you're looking for in that regard. He was almost strictly an off-ball player last year, to now being near 30% usage WHILE improving tremendously. He's made tweaks to his shot release since last year as well. It bears out besides just a role change. His assist rate jumped from 13.7% to 30.4% - that's insane. Meanwhile his TOV rate has gone up just 0.2%. His two-point percentage has gone from 51.4% to 61.2%, yet he's probably had to create more two-point shots for himself this year than he did last year. The defensive numbers are slightly down in part because Keenan Evans is gone and they now have Matt Mooney. Shit, I mean he's even grown an inch or two also lol.

I've not seen any games where he was second or third fiddle at all and I've watched them quite a bit. He is almost the entirety of their offense besides Mooney. They run almost everything through him. The Kansas State game was basically his first inefficient game all season - I've not watched that one. The WVU game he had foul trouble in the first half, then scored 18 points in the second half as they blew the game open riding him on offense.

Maybe my expectations were just skewed after watching him in the Duke game (the only other game I watched him this year). I tuned into the West Virginia game expecting some fireworks against a struggling opponent, and instead he was pretty passive. Some of it was foul trouble, but he also just wasn't handling the ball very much, and for some reason he didn't take a single three even though his team was desperate for offense. Seems like he was similarly passive against KState, where (poor accuracy aside) he had only 7 shot attempts in 37 minutes. Hope he and Texas Tech get their mojo back this week, because someone needs to step up and be the #2 guy in this draft.

 

[I'mWithDan]

@Nathan S is Jordan Poole still lagging in your draft rater?

Guy has been so damn good since his slow start to the season.

He's shooting 48.6% from 3 on 5.1 attempts per game.

I'm gonna be driving his bandwagon all season.

If we acquire a mid to late first and don't take him, I'm gonna flip a table.

I think he's the most underrated draft prospect I've watched thus far.....just given his mix of age, frame and shooting.

Steipen is missing a handful of games but still have him at 21/34 from NBA 3.

And he's finishing an obscene 72% at the rim (38% assisted).

 

[Nathan S]

@Nathan S is Jordan Poole still lagging in your draft rater?

Guy has been so damn good since his slow start to the season.

He's shooting 48.6% from 3 on 5.1 attempts per game.

I'm gonna be driving his bandwagon all season.

If we acquire a mid to late first and don't take him, I'm gonna flip a table.

I think he's the most underrated draft prospect I've watched thus far.....just given his mix of age, frame and shooting.

Steipen is missing a handful of games but still have him at 21/34 from NBA 3.

And he's finishing an obscene 72% at the rim (38% assisted).

It's still pretty cool on him. Other than his outstanding perimeter shooting, nothing stands out about him in the box score. Yeah, he's efficient at the rim, but on very low volume...which suggests that he only really gets to the rim in transition, or on major defensive breakdowns. That, combined with his just-ok passing ability, suggests that he'll probably be relegated to an off-ball shooter role in the NBA, and I think he'll have a hard time breaking out of that. And he's not a good enough defender to be drafted as a 3&D guy.

It's not too hard to find efficient ~15 ppg SGs at the college level. He needs to either take it to another level as a scorer, or add some other meaningful facet to his game.

 

[Cavatt]

I dug back through but haven't seen much on DeAndre Hunter . What's the story on him? His body is legit and he looks like he has multiple NBA moves to me. Seems like a safe pick if worse comes to worse and we get like 6

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

ESPN put out a new mock for the first time since November.

1. Zion
2. Barrett
3. Nassir Little
4. Ja Morant
5. Cam Reddish
6. Romeo Langford
7. Darius Garland
8. Jarrett Culver
9. Keldon Johnson
10. Sekou Doumbuya
11. Kevin Porter
12. DeAndre Hunter
13. Rui Hachimura
14. Jaxson Hayes
15. Bol Bol
16. Jontay Porter
17. Nickeil Walker Alexander
18. PJ Washington
19. KZ Okpala
20. Luguentz Dort

Culver the biggest jump from the mid to late teens up to 8. Still think he will end up top 5. Glad to see Darius Garland isn’t being forgotten about with NBA teams, he’s still my favorite PG in the class.

Morant at 4 is pretty rich to me lol. But I guess you can’t really argue it with how weak the second tier is after Zion.

Walker Alexander and PJ Washington are two other guys I’ve mentioned that got bumped.

Bol Bol all the way down to 15th. I expect we would’ve been out of the top ten even without the injury. I know I’ve piled it on with him earlier in here, but I still just never understood the top 5 hype - let alone top 2.

Only other thing that sticks out is Charles Bassey all the way down to 57th. Surprising given his HS pedigree and tools. Usually he’s the type of player NBA teams value more than fans.

Also James Palmer from Nebraska popped up in the late second. He’s one of my favorite seniors in the draft. Really good size and scoring ability. Not your typical senior scoring guard that’s stuck between the two guard spots and doesn’t have NBA size. I think he may be Nebraska’s best prospect over Isaiah Roby.

 

[I'mWithDan]

It's not too hard to find efficient ~15 ppg SGs at the college level. He needs to either take it to another level as a scorer, or add some other meaningful facet to his game.

My argument for him as a much better potential scorer is that he's on an outstanding team, with other players that just need shots and the ball. Does your system not weigh PPP at all? He is just insanely efficient right now with his opportunities and he has vastly improved as a self creator.

Poole is in a system that demands ball and player movement, so he's just never going to get enough volume at Michigan to separate on box score numbers, at least not this year. He's only had 7 (10+) FG attempt games this year and (2) were exactly 10 attempts and 1 was 11. He just doesn't get the volume of opportunities someone would in a different system, so I think he's going to be a guy you need to project based on some box score data and a majority on PPP and traditional film scouting......or at least that is my feel with him.

I watch him play and he has a tailor made NBA offensive game......and I'm just most intrigued by how much he has improved off the dribble. That is what is most exciting to me projecting him forward as an NBA level scorer. He has made a huge leap with the ball in his hands. He's a 5 attempt a game 3 point shooter and only 60% of his 3's are assisted. That is bordering on #1 option numbers for a perimeter player.....the ability to efficiently shoot 3's at volume and to do so equally assisted and unassisted.

Now, again, I don't think he is that right now (#1 option) and quite frankly, I don't think he will be that ever but he has a few statistical markers that I really value with combo guards (% unassisted 3's, % of unassisted 2's, PNR PPP and PPP scoring). It's similarly why I like Culver more this season......as he is showing nice progression in those numbers as well, as a fringe lead scorer.

I'd like to see him have more opportunities to create but Simpson really suppresses those for him as a primary ball handler. Even so, he's been really creative off the dribble and he has some markers that point to his ceiling being a good ISO scorer at the next level.....that when coupled with his shooting ceiling, intimates he's potentially a late 1st player that can actually turn in to something at the NBA level.

I hope he goes back to school, so we could see him take 15/16 shots a game next year but I would imagine he comes out if he continues to play like this.

 

[Nathan S]

Updated statistical rankings for this week. As always, the prospects are color-coded by tier in Jackson Hoy's big board, which means mainstream prospects are generally in blue, green, and yellow, sleepers generally in orange and red. Grant Williams is the big riser this week thanks to another pair of uber-efficient performances. His per-40 line this season is staggering: 26 points on 68% true shooting, 11 boards, 5 assists, and 4 steals+blocks.

 

[Nathan S]

My argument for him as a much better potential scorer is that he's on an outstanding team, with other players that just need shots and the ball. Does your system not weigh PPP at all? He is just insanely efficient right now with his opportunities and he has vastly improved as a self creator.

Poole is in a system that demands ball and player movement, so he's just never going to get enough volume at Michigan to separate on box score numbers, at least not this year. He's only had 7 (10+) FG attempt games this year and (2) were exactly 10 attempts and 1 was 11. He just doesn't get the volume of opportunities someone would in a different system, so I think he's going to be a guy you need to project based on some box score data and a majority on PPP and traditional film scouting......or at least that is my feel with him.

I watch him play and he has a tailor made NBA offensive game......and I'm just most intrigued by how much he has improved off the dribble. That is what is most exciting to me projecting him forward as an NBA level scorer. He has made a huge leap with the ball in his hands. He's a 5 attempt a game 3 point shooter and only 60% of his 3's are assisted. That is bordering on #1 option numbers for a perimeter player.....the ability to efficiently shoot 3's at volume and to do so equally assisted and unassisted.

Now, again, I don't think he is that right now (#1 option) and quite frankly, I don't think he will be that ever but he has a few statistical markers that I really value with combo guards (% unassisted 3's, % of unassisted 2's, PNR PPP and PPP scoring). It's similarly why I like Culver more this season......as he is showing nice progression in those numbers as well, as a fringe lead scorer.

I'd like to see him have more opportunities to create but Simpson really suppresses those for him as a primary ball handler. Even so, he's been really creative off the dribble and he has some markers that point to his ceiling being a good ISO scorer at the next level.....that when coupled with his shooting ceiling, intimates he's potentially a late 1st player that can actually turn in to something at the NBA level.

I hope he goes back to school, so we could see him take 15/16 shots a game next year but I would imagine he comes out if he continues to play like this.

I've said upthread that my model doesn't make any adjustments at the team level, so you're spot-on with that complaint. It also doesn't track assisted vs. unassisted makes; this isn't too big of a deal with three pointers, since three point volume is heavily correlated with making unassisted threes, but it's a huge problem with two pointers, where volume and % unassisted aren't really correlated at all. These are two good reasons why my model may be underrating Poole's offense.

On the other hand, my model does not really care about PPP at all (as you suspected). Instead, it cares more about 3-point volume and free throw volume when it comes to scoring. Unlike the previous factors I talked about though, this isn't an oversight, it's actually true that college scoring efficiency doesn't matter much for projecting NBA offense. Some of the least skilled offensive players in the draft, like Jaxson Hayes, are also among the most efficient college scorers because they only attempt very easy shots. It's hard to separate those guys from players like Poole (and, e.g., Alexander-Walker) based on box score alone. Of course, if you could dig deeper to get efficiency only in P&R situations, etc, then efficiency would probably start to matter. But my model only has access to basic box score stats.

 

[I'mWithDan]

But my model only has access to basic box score stats.

Cool, thanks for clarifying. Makes sense.

I just find Poole's case specifically interesting because all his advanced metrics mirror or best Langford and he's a similar age and size, yet he is really flying under the radar......I believe because his shot volume is suppressed a bit by his team but we'll see.

His FTR is the big red flag though, so I do see why he would drop rather significantly if that is weighted in your rater. He's been better than last year but not nearly where you would like a scorer to be given how good of a FT shooter he is (80+%).

But some of his shooting metrics, coupled with his ball handling flashes just peg him as a sleeper to me. When you mix his slashing and 3PT shooting, he's just a really interesting prospect.

NCAA ranks, Min 75 3 PT attempts, 25 rim attempts

TS%: #2
EFG: #2
3PT%: #5
2PT%: #8
Mid: #48
Rim: #4

Again, it's tough to peg exactly what he is because his shot volume is not what you would want it to be for someone with his scoring talent......but he's on a 14-0 team that has a lot of guys who need to get shots. But to be in the top 10 of 5 of those 6 categories is crazy (there are 200 qualifying players)....and even his mid range is 75th percentile.

The other guy that absolutely crushes the efficiency models (on the perimeter) is CJ Massenburg. Does your rater like him? A lot of people will hate that he is a 4 year player but his shooting progression the last two seasons has been really remarkable. He's been a 42+% 3 point shooter on 6+ per game for almost two full college seasons and similarly to Poole, is just putting up insane offensive numbers on very moderate usage. I admittedly have not watched Massenburg play much at all but have certainly noticed his trend line for 2 seasons now.

EDIT: Norvell is also a guy who really stands out on this list as well......of players who have the volume 3PT shooting, playmaking, rim attempt mix.

 

[Nathan S]

Cool, thanks for clarifying. Makes sense.

I just find Poole's case specifically interesting because all his advanced metrics mirror or best Langford and he's a similar age, yet he is really flying under the radar......I believe because his shot volume is suppressed a bit by his team but we'll see.

His FTR is the big red flag though, so I do see why he would drop rather significantly if that is weighted in your rater. He's been better than last year but not nearly where you would like a scorer to be given how good of a FT shooter he is (80+%).

But some of his shooting metrics, coupled with his ball handling flashes just peg him as a sleeper to me. When you mix his slashing and 3PT shooting, he's just a really interesting prospect.

NCAA ranks, Min 75 3 PT attempts, 25 rim attempts

TS%: #2
EFG: #2
3PT%: #5
2PT%: #8
Mid: #48
Rim: #4

Again, it's tough to peg exactly what he is because his shot volume is not what you would want it to be for someone with his scoring talent......but he's on a 14-0 team that has a lot of guys who need to get shots. But to be in the top 10 of 5 of those 6 categories is crazy.

The other guy that absolutely crushes the efficiency models (on the perimeter) is CJ Massenburg. Does your rater like him? A lot of people will hate that he is a 4 year player but his shooting progression the last two seasons has been really remarkable. He's been a 42+% 3 point shooter on 6+ per game for almost two full college seasons and similarly to Poole, is just putting up insane offensive numbers on very moderate usage.

I admittedly have not watched Massenburg play much at all but have certainly noticed his trend line for 2 seasons now.

It likes Massenburg a lot actually: +3.7 offense, -1.1 defense, +2.6 overall. Of course, he's benefiting a lot from a weak strength of schedule (e.g. a triple-double against a D-II team earlier this year), but still seems like a legit prospect. At a glance, his rebound rate (especially offensive rebound rate) really jumps off the page for a player his size. Suggests that he'll be able to hold his own against NBA athletes.

Poole's in a really tricky team situation because he not only has to compete with Brazdeikis and Matthews for shots, he also has to compete with Simpson for ballhandling opportunities...and since Simpson is an utterly worthless off-ball player, there's hardly any opportunity for Poole to try his hand at running the offense. Long story short, 99% of the time a guy who's only 3rd on his team in usage in college is never going to be a #1 or #2 option in the pros. But if you had to pick an exception, it'd be a guy like Poole.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Also James Palmer from Nebraska popped up in the late second. He’s one of my favorite seniors in the draft. Really good size and scoring ability. Not your typical senior scoring guard that’s stuck between the two guard spots and doesn’t have NBA size. I think he may be Nebraska’s best prospect over Isaiah Roby.

In the post above about Poole......NCAA ranks, Min 75 3 PT attempts, 25 rim attempts.

Palmer is #3 in the NCAA on that list in FTR too.

He's also currently pacing at a really solid 2.2 BLK+STL.

Palmer does lag as a shooter a bit but his FTR still makes him a pretty efficient scorer.

There's actually a lot of interesting Jr and Sr NBA prospects this season.

I'll be curious to see where these guys fall as later bloomers.