2021 NFL Draft - Call Your Shot

[MD13]

I get the history lesson, and yeah he lined up in the box 463 snaps vs 119 in the slot last season. He was used effectively but his full ability has not been tested. He can imo far exceed any concerns due to less tape in coverage. He proved he has the freak athletic upside to become an elite LB running a 4.37 40 (100th PCTL)at 234 lbs. a 42" vert(100th PCTL) and an 11' broad (99th PCTL). another season as a starter and he is a top 10 lock. If they don't take him it's cause he gone already if they know whats good for 'em.

The way you're approaching the pick with your love for Jamin Davis is just completely the opposite of the way analytics approach the draft. The draft is by nature an inexact science, so analytics are all about maximizing value by establishing guidelines to mitigate risk and maximize reward.

Would Jamin Davis be a no-brainer pick if you know that he'll become a 10-time all pro at LB? Absolutely. But there's a ton of data out there that NFL teams are pretty good at identifying talent pools (1st round, 2nd round, etc) but they're pretty poor at identifying the outliers inside those pools, hence why trade ups always seem to go against the team trading up. I don't see the Browns using their top pick on what is quantitatively a lower impact position (caps the ceiling) on football games given all we know about the way the FO operates. The only reason I'm not crossing off Davis completely is because his athletic testing numbers are such an outlier, but I'm still very doubtful.

 

[Selby]

I have two:

- The Browns will take a Michigan player at some point during the draft
- The thread created for said Michigan player will be littered with arguing over Michigan vs Ohio St, continuing the tradition from the Peppers and DPJ threads

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Look like our buddy @Ozone was off by a tenth of a second on Davis's 40-time. I see 4.47 and 4.48.

I will give you this though--the Browns draft Davis at 26, and I'll make him my new avatar.

 

[Randolphkeys]

View attachment 5620

Look like our buddy @Ozone was off by a tenth of a second on Davis's 40-time. I can't find anyone reporting it at 4.37. I see 4.47 and 4.48.

I will give you this though--the Browns draft Davis at 26, and I'll make him my new avatar.

40 time debates...

 

[NorthCoastBias]

I have two:

- The Browns will take a Michigan player at some point during the draft
- The thread created for said Michigan player will be littered with arguing over Michigan vs Ohio St, continuing the tradition from the Peppers and DPJ threads

I am an OSU alum and would be 100% on board with the Browns drafting Nico Collins. Same vein as DPJ in that he wasn't utilized and developed to his full potential at Michigan. Lots of really nice athletic tools there.

 

[Jack Brickman]

I am an OSU alum and would be 100% on board with the Browns drafting Nico Collins. Same vein as DPJ in that he wasn't utilized and developed to his full potential at Michigan. Lots of really nice athletic tools there.

And he'll probably fall to day three, which makes him an acceptable risk just like DPJ was.

 

[MD13]

I am an OSU alum and would be 100% on board with the Browns drafting Nico Collins. Same vein as DPJ in that he wasn't utilized and developed to his full potential at Michigan. Lots of really nice athletic tools there.

I hope DPJ gets a bigger role this year. He seemed to always do good things when he was involved, and some of his biggest moments were in the clutch. Hopefully a year with our coaching staff makes him a much more complete WR.

 

[kriegs]

Tear into me. New England trades with Detroit and Browns trade out of the 1st

 

[Randolphkeys]

I want DPJ to become the best special teams gunner in the NFL and add to his roster value.

 

[Zeus69]

In a lame effort to dodge going on record, offering a hypothetical… which of the following five would folks choose at #26 (no trade down)?

Rashod Bateman
Zaven Collins
Caleb Farley
JOK
Joe Tryon

 

[DJTJ]

In a lame effort to dodge going on record, offering a hypothetical… which of the following five would folks choose at #26 (no trade down)?

Rashod Bateman
Zaven Collins
Caleb Farley
JOK
Joe Tryon

In order

JOK
Collins
Bateman
Tyron
Farley Bc of medical. I’d flip Farley and Bateman if Medicaid were ok.

 

[Ohio]

I have two:

- The Browns will take a Michigan player at some point during the draft
- The thread created for said Michigan player will be littered with arguing over Michigan vs Ohio St, continuing the tradition from the Peppers and DPJ threads

Peppers and DPJ were not remotely the same. Peppers is the JAG all Buckeye fans knew he was and thus we were upset we wasted a 1st round pick on a JAG. DPJ was pretty unanimously regarded as a great pick, even (especially?) by Buckeye fans. The only drama there was Mary Kay asking the stupid Michigan question at the presser, and then the sheeps of the fanbase following along with the fake drama afterwards.

Unless the Browns waste a valuable asset like they did with selecting Peppers, which seems unlikely given how well Berry & co have done so far, there shouldn't be an issue. For Michigan in particular, Kwity Paye is their only highly rated guy and he'd be a steal at 26.

I would hope people have gotten past this nonsense, but sadly you are probably right. Surely someone would try to create something out of nothing.

 

[Ozone]

View attachment 5620

Look like our buddy @Ozone was off by a tenth of a second on Davis's 40-time. I can't find anyone reporting it at 4.37. I see 4.47 and 4.48.

I will give you this though--the Browns draft Davis at 26, and I'll make him my new avatar.

no

 

[JDailey23]

I see 3 trades tonight.
A team movies into the top 10,
Browns trade out of 26 tonight and into the teens for a defensive player.
AARON gets traded.

 

[Ozone]

The way you're approaching the pick with your love for Jamin Davis is just completely the opposite of the way analytics approach the draft. The draft is by nature an inexact science, so analytics are all about maximizing value by establishing guidelines to mitigate risk and maximize reward.

Would Jamin Davis be a no-brainer pick if you know that he'll become a 10-time all pro at LB? Absolutely. But there's a ton of data out there that NFL teams are pretty good at identifying talent pools (1st round, 2nd round, etc) but they're pretty poor at identifying the outliers inside those pools, hence why trade ups always seem to go against the team trading up. I don't see the Browns using their top pick on what is quantitatively a lower impact position (caps the ceiling) on football games given all we know about the way the FO operates. The only reason I'm not crossing off Davis completely is because his athletic testing numbers are such an outlier, but I'm still very doubtful.

There are better rated prospects that might be there a couple are WR but I doubt the odds are great DB's there will be ranked higher than Davis. I like Jok better than Davis his coverage rate is elite by comparison but unless I am missing something JOK is gone 10 picks higher. Nobody is perfect and neither is Jamin, I am just saying all signs point to it happening