2022 Rotation Predictions

[Douglar]

Here's are the players on the roster:

Roster	Player	Pos	2022 RPM​	2022 On/Off Ortg Diff​	2022 Raptor​	2023 Raptor Prediction​
1	Donovan	G	6.16	-0.7	5.6	6.9
2	Garland	G	4.88	+12.0	8.8	8.0
3	Allen	C	4.03	+4.2	6.3	6.0
4	Mobley	F/C	3.11	+0.0	1.9	3.7
5	LeVert	G/F	0.39	-6.8	1.7	2.1
6	Wade	F	-0.29	+0.5	1.7	1.0
7	Okoro	G/F	-0.32	+2.9	1.9	2.2
8	Love	PF/C	-0.57	-2.1	4.2	1.8
9	Rubio	G	-1.29	+9.0	3.3	2.4
10	Osman	F	-1.86	-6.4	0.7	0.5
11	Windler	G/F	-3.07	-2.5	0.5	0.6
12	Neto	G	-3.49	+1.4	1.1	1.4
13	Stevens	G/F	-3.97	-3.6	0.1	0.1
14	Lopez	C	-5.44	+2.0	-0.6	-0.6

Key:

RPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors​

NBA Real Plus-Minus - National Basketball Association - ESPN

See the real plus-minus statistics in the NBA on ESPN.com

www.espn.com

​

On/Off Ortf Diff is the net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions for on/off court, but doesn't take into account teammates and opponents.​

2021-22 Cleveland Cavaliers On/Off | Basketball-Reference.com

On/Off Team Statistics

www.basketball-reference.com

​

Raptor is from 538. It use play-by-play and player-tracking data to calculate each player’s individual plus-minus measurements and wins above replacement, adjusted for playing time. The 2023 raptor predictions are pretty much regression to the mean for everyone except Mobley.​

2022-23 NBA Player Projections

FiveThirtyEight’s NBA player projection system identifies similar players throughout NBA history to determine what a current NBA player’s future might look like.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

​

Let's make some rotation predictions!

​

 

[Peacedog]

Starting 5
Garland
Mitchell
Okoro
Mobley
Allen

Main Bench guys
Rubio (Neto before he's healthy)
Levert
Osman (less minutes than others)
Love
Lopez (less minutes than others)

Will be needed at some point
Stevens
Wade
Windler

I think a key goal will be to always have one of our star guards AND star bigs on the floor. If we can do that, you'll never be watching the game and say "God, that lineup out there is awful.

If you want numbers, I say
Garland 28
Mitchell 28
Okoro 22
Mobley 28
Allen 28

Rubio 20
Levert 24
Love 22

The stars will probably get more minutes, but this would be ideal, to me.

 

[jjvors]

Peacedog, Starting with your analysis, I agree with this:
"Starting 5
Garland
Mitchell
Okoro
Mobley
Allen"

"Main Bench guys
Rubio (Neto before he's healthy) Check
Levert
Osman (less minutes than others)
Love
Lopez (less minutes than others)"

The Osman/Levert balance will depend upon matchups and who's shooting well. I think they'll split some time and be on the court together, with Levert replacing Mitchell and Osman replacing Okoro.

"Will be needed at some point
Stevens
Wade
Windler"

I see more minutes for Wade, depending upon matchups. He may even get first pick over Osman and maybe a start or two.

"I think a key goal will be to always have one of our star guards AND star bigs on the floor. "

Agree 100%.

"If you want numbers, I say
Garland 28
Mitchell 28
Okoro 22
Mobley 28
Allen 28"

No way. You want your stars playing 32-36 minutes a night. I'm looking at
Garland 34
Mitchell 35
Okoro 29
Mobley 34
Allen 34

And less for:
Rubio/Neto 14
Levert 10
Osman 10
Love 20
Wade/Lopez 8

I'm big into winning games. I don't see more minutes for stars as bad. NBA players used to go 40 minutes a night. 34 minutes isn't that much.

 

[foucault87]

Ideally everyone is under 32 mpg imo. Keep down the wear as much as possible especially since we have 12ish usable players

 

[Cavatt]

Ideally everyone is under 32 mpg imo. Keep down the wear as much as possible especially since we have 12ish usable players

Especially how much JB demands on the defensive end

 

[I'mWithDan]

Ideally everyone is under 32 mpg imo. Keep down the wear as much as possible especially since we have 12ish usable players

Mitchell has played a minimum of 33 minutes per game, every year of his career. On a good, young team, I doubt he's going to want to play less.

Garland and Mitchell in the 34 range allows for a more comfortable stagger, where you need to survive only a few minutes per game without either.

Mitchell - 34
Garland - 34
Okoro - 30
Mobley - 35
Allen - 32

That leaves the bench at 75 minutes.

Caris - 27
Love - 20
Rubio - 20
Cedi - 8

The 3 is pretty gross right now but we'll make due. I'd be tempted to play Mobley at the 3 for 5-6 minutes a game, when Love is on the floor. Just to try to steal minutes from Cedi or Okoro.

I really don't see guys like Lopez playing much at all, unless there is injury or a rest schedule. Ditto for Neto once Rubio is back. Effectively an 8 man rotation where Cedi is tasked with giving someone on the wing a breather for 3-4 minutes a half.

 

[Peacedog]

Starting 5
Garland
Mitchell
Okoro
Mobley
Allen

Main Bench guys
Rubio (Neto before he's healthy)
Levert
Osman (less minutes than others)
Love
Lopez (less minutes than others)

Will be needed at some point
Stevens
Wade
Windler

I think a key goal will be to always have one of our star guards AND star bigs on the floor. If we can do that, you'll never be watching the game and say "God, that lineup out there is awful.

If you want numbers, I say
Garland 28
Mitchell 28
Okoro 22
Mobley 28
Allen 28

Rubio 20
Levert 24
Love 22

The stars will probably get more minutes, but this would be ideal, to me.

I had the starters at 30 mpg, but had too many minutes, but only because I was shooting for a total of 200! Still have my head in the college game. So yeah, bump the big 4 from 28 to 34 mpg and now I only need to add 24 mins. So here is the new totals:

Big 4: 34 * 4 (136)
Okoro 30

Rubio 20
Levert 24
Love 22
Osman 4
Lopez 4

 

[Cavatt]

Mitchell has played a minimum of 33 minutes per game, every year of his career. On a good, young team, I doubt he's going to want to play less.

Garland and Mitchell in the 34 range allows for a more comfortable stagger, where you need to survive only a few minutes per game without either.

Mitchell - 34
Garland - 34
Okoro - 30
Mobley - 35
Allen - 32

That leaves the bench at 75 minutes.

Caris - 27
Love - 20
Rubio - 20
Cedi - 8

The 3 is pretty gross right now but we'll make due. I'd be tempted to play Mobley at the 3 for 5-6 minutes a game, when Love is on the floor. Just to try to steal minutes from Cedi or Okoro.

I really don't see guys like Lopez playing much at all, unless there is injury or a rest schedule. Ditto for Neto once Rubio is back. Effectively an 8 man rotation where Cedi is tasked with giving someone on the wing a breather for 3-4 minutes a half.

Why no Wade? I think 34 is too much for Darius. Unless he and Mobley really up their conditioning this year, I'd like a longer rotation.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Why no Wade? I think 34 is too much for Darius. Unless he and Mobley really up their conditioning this year, I'd like a longer rotation.

It is possible Wade takes Cedi's role......I just think the rotation is just crowded. Too many mouths to feed. My numbers were already reducing Love, Caris and Rubio's minutes, even with none of the projected starters being over extended. Mobley only went from 34 minutes last year to 35 this. Adding a player of Mitchell's caliber just makes it harder for anything to be left over. We now have 4 guys that absolutely command minute share at their position and in a best case scenario, a 5th, if Okoro makes a positive leap forward. The guys who will take the brunt of that will be Cedi, Wade, etc........who just are unlikely to have regular roles game in and game out.

 

[Funkmastabuck]

I think Okoro gets the first shot at having the most minutes at SF. But Credit should play quite a bit at SF, as well, and just might thrive with so much talent surrounding him.

I do think Wade gets time at both SF and PF spots.

 

[Cavatt]

It is possible Wade takes Cedi's role......I just think the rotation is just crowded. Too many mouths to feed. My numbers were already reducing Love, Caris and Rubio's minutes, even with none of the projected starters being over extended. Mobley only went from 34 minutes last year to 35 this. Adding a player of Mitchell's caliber just makes it harder for anything to be left over. We now have 4 guys that absolutely command minute share at their position and in a best case scenario, a 5th, if Okoro makes a positive leap forward. The guys who will take the brunt of that will be Cedi, Wade, etc........who just are unlikely to have regular roles game in and game out.

For the playoffs, I agree. Running 8 guys in season is going to be a repeat of last year with everyone fading down the stretch while teams are turning up the intensity.

 

[foucault87]

I think we've seen over the last few years you want a 10-12 man rotation in the regular season that narrows to 8-9 in the playoffs. Ideally 8 guys you trust, and a 9th slot you can use situationally (rope vs bruisers, cedi for shooting, windler for the memes).

With that in mind I think we have the following guys who will be playing (assuming no further moves)

Guards - Garland, Mitchell, Rubio/Neto*
Wings - Okoro, LeVert, Cedi*, Wade, Stevens*
Bigs - Mobley, Allen, Love, Ropez*

Asterisks are guys who I expect to see rotation mins in the regular season but not likely in the top 9 for playoffs.

Thats enough bodies that imo you can keep everyone under 32 mpg easily in the regular season, maybe play Mitchell and Mobley a bit more. Id like to keep Garland and Allen at or below 32. In the playoffs, you gotta play them more, but hopefully no one is over 40 mpg

 

[Derek]

Garland - 32/Neto - 16
Mitchell - 32/Okoro - 16
Wade - 24/LeVert - 24
Mobley - 32/Love - 16
Allen - 30/Lopez - 12/Love - 6

 

[cliffdawg]

Garland - 32/Neto - 16
Mitchell - 32/Okoro - 16
Wade - 24/Osman - 24
Mobley - 32/Love - 16
Allen - 30/Lopez - 12/Love - 6

Where’s LeVert ? I think he takes all of Osman minutes, and cut into Neto minutes, I be disappointed if Neto getting 16 minutes

 

[Derek]

Where’s LeVert ? I think he takes all of Osman minutes, and cut into Neto minutes, I be disappointed if Neto getting 16 minutes

Forgot about him. Hope he’s traded for a SF. If not, probably Osman’s minutes.

Garland+Neto should equal 48 minutes each night. I have no interest in seeing us without a PG on the floor.