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Winners of four of their last five games, the Cavaliers head to Dallas to take on the 18-12 Mavericks, who are 8-6 at home. The Athletic had this synopsis of their season yesterday:
Dallas Mavericks (17-12): 21st-toughest schedule; 1-7 against the top six in the West; 6-10 against non-losing teams.
Résumé Meter: The Mavs have been destroying bad teams, almost exclusively.
The Mavericks beat Phoenix 128-114 on Monday as Luka Doncic went for 50 points. However, Phoenix did not have a center as they started three guards and two power forwards, one being 35-year-old Kevin Durant.
The Mavericks have a point differential of +1.5. Recently they lost to Houston by 26, the Clippers by 9 and 19, Minnesota by 18, Denver by 26. In the last month their only win over a decent team was a 2-point win over the Lakers (16-15) at home. As The Athletic noted, they do not appear to be as good as their record indicates, especially recently.
Kyrie Irving has not played since Dec. 8 with a heel injury and is listed as out for tonight. The Mavs are 10-7 when Kyrie plays and 8-5 when he does not. Kyrie is averaging 23 ppg. SG Josh Green is also out; he averages 6.9 points in 25 minutes per game, sixth most on the team.
Donovan Mitchell, Caris LeVert, and Sam Merrill are game time decisions.
The Mavericks are a very good offensive team, ranking 7th in points per game but 26th in points in the paint, so it’s clear they’re an outside shooting team. In fact, they rank 2nd in 3-point rate at 47% and 2nd in 3-point attempts per game. They’re 14th in 3-point percentage.
Surprisingly, they’re just 24th in offensive rebound percentage; it seems like they shoot the 3 and fall back on defense. That being said, they are last in opponents’ fast break points at 17 per game, so a lot of those long rebounds off missed 3’s are being converted to transition buckets.
Doncic runs the offense brilliantly; the Mavs commit the fewest turnovers per possession in the league. But they rank just 25th in assists; Luka with 9.4, Kyrie with 5.2, and nobody else with more than 2.5. They get the matchup they want and go one-on-one.
With Irving out Doncic will have to handle most of the scoring. Former Cavalier Dante Exum is starting in Irving’s spot. He averages 9 points per game on just six shots. Their center is 19-year-old rookie Dereck Lively II, averaging 9.4 points in 26 minutes. SF Tim Hardaway Jr averages 17.6 ppg off the bench but with low shooting percentages.
The key to beating the Mavs is defending the 3-point shot since that’s what almost half their shots consist of. Forcing Doncic to give up the ball might work, but he’s such a great passer you won’t force a turnover and he probably just ends up hitting the open man if he gets doubled.
Defensively the Mavs are below average, ranking 22nd in scoring defense. They’re 26th in points in the paint, so the Cavs should take it to the rim. The Mavs are 26th in block percentage. Other than the 7’1” Dereck Lively they don’t have much height; their entire rotation is 6’5” to 6’6” except Doncic at 6’7”, and he doesn’t jump. Too bad we don’t have Mobley.
The Mavs rank 23rd in opponents’ 2-point shooting percentage and 24th in defensive rebound percentage so getting into the paint and crashing the offensive boards should be very effective. They don’t foul much, ranking 5th in opponents’ free throw attempts per possession.
Normally its a high scoring shootout when teams play the Mavericks due to their good offense and bad defense. Doncic averages 33.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 9.4 assists, playing 37 minutes a game. He played 44 minutes Monday night. Without Irving and Green the Mavs went with a six-man rotation with four other guys playing 7-13 minutes. Their bench scored just 10 of the team’s 128 points. Doncic shot 16 of his 25 shots from the 3-point line, making 8.
The question for the Cavs is whether they will have Mitchell, LeVert, Merrill, and Jerome back. If they do they should be able to overwhelm the Mavericks with numbers, bringing fresh bodies onto the floor at regular intervals while the Mavs basically go with six guys.
Doncic is listed as questionable with left quad soreness. If he sits it’s a whole different ballgame. I wonder if the reason he took 16 of his 25 shots from the 3-point line Monday was because his leg was hurting and jacking up a 3 is easier than working to get into the paint. If he comes out shooting 3's tonight the Cavs should pressure him and make him work to get shots. On offense get the ball to whoever he's guarding and make him play defense. Playing 44 minutes Monday night may have aggravated his sore quad.
By the way, I liked Dante Exum a lot when he was on the Cavs, but he was always injured. The Cavs traded him to the Rockets in the famous three-team deal involving James Harden with the Cavs getting Jarrett Allen and Taurean Prince. Prince was later traded for Ricky Rubio. How’s that Exum for Allen/Rubio deal looking now?
Now 28, Exum is back in the league after playing two years in Europe. When he is on the floor the Mavs are outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.6 points per 100 possessions, best on the team by far. Doncic is +6.7 and Irving is +2.2. I see Exum as an Australian Isaac Okoro. In fact, they were both #5 overall picks.
Exum 6’5”, 214, career 6.0 points, 1.9 rebounds in 18.6 minutes
Okoro 6’5’, 225, career 8.2 points, 2.9 rebounds in 27.5 minutes
If you equalize the minutes their numbers are almost identical. Okoro’s shooting percentages are a little higher.
Dallas Mavericks (17-12): 21st-toughest schedule; 1-7 against the top six in the West; 6-10 against non-losing teams.
Résumé Meter: The Mavs have been destroying bad teams, almost exclusively.
The Mavericks beat Phoenix 128-114 on Monday as Luka Doncic went for 50 points. However, Phoenix did not have a center as they started three guards and two power forwards, one being 35-year-old Kevin Durant.
The Mavericks have a point differential of +1.5. Recently they lost to Houston by 26, the Clippers by 9 and 19, Minnesota by 18, Denver by 26. In the last month their only win over a decent team was a 2-point win over the Lakers (16-15) at home. As The Athletic noted, they do not appear to be as good as their record indicates, especially recently.
Kyrie Irving has not played since Dec. 8 with a heel injury and is listed as out for tonight. The Mavs are 10-7 when Kyrie plays and 8-5 when he does not. Kyrie is averaging 23 ppg. SG Josh Green is also out; he averages 6.9 points in 25 minutes per game, sixth most on the team.
Donovan Mitchell, Caris LeVert, and Sam Merrill are game time decisions.
The Mavericks are a very good offensive team, ranking 7th in points per game but 26th in points in the paint, so it’s clear they’re an outside shooting team. In fact, they rank 2nd in 3-point rate at 47% and 2nd in 3-point attempts per game. They’re 14th in 3-point percentage.
Surprisingly, they’re just 24th in offensive rebound percentage; it seems like they shoot the 3 and fall back on defense. That being said, they are last in opponents’ fast break points at 17 per game, so a lot of those long rebounds off missed 3’s are being converted to transition buckets.
Doncic runs the offense brilliantly; the Mavs commit the fewest turnovers per possession in the league. But they rank just 25th in assists; Luka with 9.4, Kyrie with 5.2, and nobody else with more than 2.5. They get the matchup they want and go one-on-one.
With Irving out Doncic will have to handle most of the scoring. Former Cavalier Dante Exum is starting in Irving’s spot. He averages 9 points per game on just six shots. Their center is 19-year-old rookie Dereck Lively II, averaging 9.4 points in 26 minutes. SF Tim Hardaway Jr averages 17.6 ppg off the bench but with low shooting percentages.
The key to beating the Mavs is defending the 3-point shot since that’s what almost half their shots consist of. Forcing Doncic to give up the ball might work, but he’s such a great passer you won’t force a turnover and he probably just ends up hitting the open man if he gets doubled.
Defensively the Mavs are below average, ranking 22nd in scoring defense. They’re 26th in points in the paint, so the Cavs should take it to the rim. The Mavs are 26th in block percentage. Other than the 7’1” Dereck Lively they don’t have much height; their entire rotation is 6’5” to 6’6” except Doncic at 6’7”, and he doesn’t jump. Too bad we don’t have Mobley.
The Mavs rank 23rd in opponents’ 2-point shooting percentage and 24th in defensive rebound percentage so getting into the paint and crashing the offensive boards should be very effective. They don’t foul much, ranking 5th in opponents’ free throw attempts per possession.
Normally its a high scoring shootout when teams play the Mavericks due to their good offense and bad defense. Doncic averages 33.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 9.4 assists, playing 37 minutes a game. He played 44 minutes Monday night. Without Irving and Green the Mavs went with a six-man rotation with four other guys playing 7-13 minutes. Their bench scored just 10 of the team’s 128 points. Doncic shot 16 of his 25 shots from the 3-point line, making 8.
The question for the Cavs is whether they will have Mitchell, LeVert, Merrill, and Jerome back. If they do they should be able to overwhelm the Mavericks with numbers, bringing fresh bodies onto the floor at regular intervals while the Mavs basically go with six guys.
Doncic is listed as questionable with left quad soreness. If he sits it’s a whole different ballgame. I wonder if the reason he took 16 of his 25 shots from the 3-point line Monday was because his leg was hurting and jacking up a 3 is easier than working to get into the paint. If he comes out shooting 3's tonight the Cavs should pressure him and make him work to get shots. On offense get the ball to whoever he's guarding and make him play defense. Playing 44 minutes Monday night may have aggravated his sore quad.
By the way, I liked Dante Exum a lot when he was on the Cavs, but he was always injured. The Cavs traded him to the Rockets in the famous three-team deal involving James Harden with the Cavs getting Jarrett Allen and Taurean Prince. Prince was later traded for Ricky Rubio. How’s that Exum for Allen/Rubio deal looking now?
Now 28, Exum is back in the league after playing two years in Europe. When he is on the floor the Mavs are outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.6 points per 100 possessions, best on the team by far. Doncic is +6.7 and Irving is +2.2. I see Exum as an Australian Isaac Okoro. In fact, they were both #5 overall picks.
Exum 6’5”, 214, career 6.0 points, 1.9 rebounds in 18.6 minutes
Okoro 6’5’, 225, career 8.2 points, 2.9 rebounds in 27.5 minutes
If you equalize the minutes their numbers are almost identical. Okoro’s shooting percentages are a little higher.
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) I tended to shoot more jumpers and drive less. If Luka's leg was bothering him it might explain why he took so many 3's. He averages 8.4 per game but took almost double that on Monday.
