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2023-24 Season | Game #38 | Bulls @ Cavs | Jan. 15, 2024 | 7:00 p.m.

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Wham with the Right Hand

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Winners of 9 of their last 12 the Cavs return home from their sojourn in Paris to take on the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls started the season 5-14 but have turned things around and are 14-8 in their last 22 games. The Bulls have had problems on the road, however, with a 6-12 record while the Cavs are 13-8 at home. This will be the Bulls’ third game in four nights whereas the Cavaliers have had three days off.

The Bulls have played the league’s fifth easiest schedule so they may not be as good as their 19-22 record suggests. They lost decisively to the Cavs at home on Dec. 23 by a 109-95 score with Zach LaVine out. The Cavs were without Garland, Mitchell, Mobley, and LeVert but still won by 14. Porter, Okoro, and Wade started for the Cavs. Jarrett Allen had 19 points, 17 rebounds, and 7 assists, including 8 offensive boards. TT chipped in with four offensive rebounds as the Cavs totaled 15 for the game.

Garland and Mobley are still out but the Cavs will have Mitchell and LeVert this time while the Bulls will have LaVine back. Max Strus is questionable.

The Bulls are weak offensively, ranking 27th to 29th in points per game, effective field goal percentage, 2-point percentage, and points in the paint. They’re better from deep, ranking 18th in 3-point percentage against 29th in 2-point percentage, so the Cavs need to focus on defending the 3. The one area the Bulls are very good offensively is turnovers where they rank 3rd in turnover percentage. They rank 26th in assists per possession, so they like to go one-on-one. Their pace is average.

Defensively the Bulls are much better, ranking 12th in points allowed per game. They lead the NBA in preventing points in the paint, but that might be because opponents put up more 3’s against them than any other team; nearly 45%. The Bulls are average at defending both 2’s and 3’s, and they rank 18th in effective field goal percentage. They’re a small team that excels in steals (8th) and forcing turnovers (6th). They’re a little below average in defensive rebounding (20th) and as noted Allen and TT dominated the offensive glass in the first game.

The key offensively is to not allow them to get too many steals and turnovers. Defensively the key is to contest their 3-point shots because they’re second worst in the league in 2-point percentage.

DeMar DeRozan averages 22.4 ppg on 47% overall and 36% on 3’s. He loves the mid-range jumper and the Bulls take more of them than any team. The Bulls rank 28th in accuracy at the rim; they’re better in the mid-range and on 3’s. DeRozan shot 9 free throws against the Cavs in the first game; the refs still give him the star treatment.

The Bulls are riding DeRo hard; at age 34 he’s averaging 37 minutes per game and played 40 against the Cavs. So far in January he’s shooting 52% overall and 39% on 3’s. He had 39 points in 41 minutes against Golden State Friday. Playing his third game in four nights he may be a little fatigued.

Zach LaVine averages 20 ppg on 45% and 35%. The Bulls are 9-14 when LaVine plays. The Bulls have only two wins against teams over .500 with LaVine in the lineup. Both those wins were in November.

PG Coby White is having a nice year, averaging 18.5 points. He’s been on a roll recently, averaging 22.7 points in January on 51% overall and 48% on 3’s. C Nikola Vucevic averages 16.8 points and 10.4 rebounds on 46% from the field. Patrick Williams and Alex Caruso average 9.8 ppg.

The Bulls have had a pretty easy schedule in January, beating Charlotte twice, Houston, and San Antonio. They beat San Antonio Saturday by six points with Wembanyama out. Their wins over Charlotte and Houston were in OT so they've been squeaking by some weak opponents.

The Cavs have played just one game in the last eight days; this Paris trip has been like an early All-Star break for them.

The Bulls have a small team; Vucevic is 6’10” but not a leaper; he averages less than one block per game. The starting forwards, LaVine and DeRo, are 6’5” and 6’6”. The backup forwards, Dalen Terry and Patrick Williams, are 6’7”. Ayo Dosunmu is 6’5” and Jevon Carter is 6’1”. Only Andre Drummond brings real size to the team at 6’11” and he averages just 16 minutes per game. Williams and Dosunmu are listed as game time decisions. If they are out the Bulls' bench will really be thin.

I’m not sure why they allow fewer points in the paint than any team or why opponents shoot more 3’s against them than anyone. Perhaps the Bulls know they are small and have no rim protection so they tend to sag into the paint on defense, inviting opponents to shoot from outside. The Cavs rank 25th in 3-point percentage so they might be better off attacking the rim, but the Bulls excel at stealing the ball so driving into a crowd many not be the wisest course.

In the first game the Cavs put up 45 three’s against 43 two’s so they were definitely getting lots of open 3's. Strus shot 17 from deep, making just 5. Overall the Cavs were just 12-for-45 from deep or they would have beaten the Bulls by much worse than 14 points despite missing four key players. Since Garland and Mobley went down the Cavs are leading the NBA in 3-point attempts per game so they might put up 60 tonight.
 
I hope not, but could see the good guys being a little sloppy with the ball, and an off night shooting.
Travel hang over, maybe a little lost focus.
And, the Bulls have dudes who can get real hot and dominate for stretches.

Hope I'm wrong, so l will be wearing my lucky Browns jers.... no.....um.....l will wear my favorite Buckeye hat....oops, no....hmmmm.....where did l throw my Cowboys.... oh man, they're screwed.... smh
 
It’s weird to be worried about being rusty this time of year, but I think it is our biggest concern.
 
Yeah, having played one game in the last eight days with a lot of travel and distractions I can see the Cavs being out of sync tonight. I'm concerned with Strus being questionable; he has the highest on/off number on the team. In the first game against the Bulls he had 26 points, 7 assists, and was a +15. If he can't go we'll be missing three starters.

The Bulls allow the fewest points in the paint than any team; they force you to shoot 3's and the Cavs rank 25th in 3-point percentage. If they go 12-for-45 on 3's like they did the first game this could be an upset. Or if Mitchell commits a lot of turnovers trying to force his way to the rim in heavy traffic it will be a tough game to win.

I hope Bickerstaff put them through a couple of good practices after returning from France so they are ready to hit the ground running.

Their best bet on offense is to move the ball to set up uncontested 3's and have Allen and TT crash the offensive glass as they did so successfully the last time these teams played.
 
Yeah, having played one game in the last eight days with a lot of travel and distractions I can see the Cavs being out of sync tonight. I'm concerned with Strus being questionable; he has the highest on/off number on the team. In the first game against the Bulls he had 26 points, 7 assists, and was a +15. If he can't go we'll be missing three starters.

The Bulls allow the fewest points in the paint than any team; they force you to shoot 3's and the Cavs rank 25th in 3-point percentage. If they go 12-for-45 on 3's like they did the first game this could be an upset. Or if Mitchell commits a lot of turnovers trying to force his way to the rim in heavy traffic it will be a tough game to win.

I hope Bickerstaff put them through a couple of good practices after returning from France so they are ready to hit the ground running.

Their best bet on offense is to move the ball to set up uncontested 3's and have Allen and TT crash the offensive glass as they did so successfully the last time these teams played.
That's a good point with Strus...sore knees with a long flight is not a good combo. I realize they are not flying coach/have room to stretch, walk, etc., but flying is not ideal for sore anything, particularly knees.
 
Strus only played 7 minutes in Paris so he's had a week to rest the knee. Hope he can go tonight.
 
This should be a certain win, but I worry about playing down to our opponent. If we play as well as we did in Paris, we'll win 120-100. I'll give us a 70% chance of winning.

I expect a monster game from Allen. They have no defense against him. 20-20 is possible.
I expect at least 30 from Mitchell.
Those two will create a lot of open threes for Merrill, Strus, Niang, Wade, and Okoro. I expect 15 or more from them, for 45 points.

LeVert may have a weak game. He loves going inside and the Bull seem to defend that. Say 15 for him.

Will Craig Porter play? If it's a blowout probably. Otherwise, probably not.
 
I'm counting on the Bulls playing badly on the road (6-12) and playing their third game in four nights against a well-rested opponent. Also, we beat them handily in their house without Mitchell and LeVert, and we have both of them back. What concerns me is that White, Williams, and Caruso are all shooting 41% on 3's. We don't know if Patrick Williams will play, however.
 
It will be interesting to see what JBB does with the starting lineup if Strus can't go.
 
Bulls will bring more fight this time. Whether it's enough.....????
 
It will be interesting to see what JBB does with the starting lineup if Strus can't go.
I expect Strus to play, since he was at practice. If he can't, it'll be Okoro.
 

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