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The Cavs concluded the first half of the season with a record of 26-15 and having won eight in a row and 13 of 16. But now they hit a huge obstacle with back-to-back road games in Milwaukee on Wednesday and Friday. The Bucks are 30-13 overall but more importantly they are 19-4 at home, second only to Boston in home record.
Milwaukee has played the third easiest schedule in the NBA and their point differential is +4.1, which is actually worse than the Cavs at +4.3. They have not been impressive recently. In their last two games they beat the 4-39 Pistons by 6 and 9 points. Before that they were blown out by the Cavs and before that they beat Sacramento (10-10 on the road) in overtime at home. Their head coach was fired yesterday.
Based on the fact that their point differential is just +4.1 despite playing the third easiest schedule I suspect they are not as good as their record indicates. Obviously management isn’t pleased. Giannis blasted the whole organization a couple of weeks ago, saying everyone has to do better. Their record may look good but things are not going as well as expected for a team with stars like Giannis, Damian Lillard, Brook Lopez, and Khris Middleton.
The Cavs lost to the Bucks on Dec. 29 in Cleveland 119-111. The Cavs were 6-for-43 on 3’s and missed all 22 of their uncontested 3’s. It was the most frustrating game of the season, for me anyway. The Cavs hit 71% of their 2-point shots but stubbornly kept clanging 3’s off the rim - 37 times to be exact in an 8-point loss.
Last week with Giannis out the Cavs blasted the Bucks by 40 points. The Bucks’ starters did not look happy as they sat on the bench in the second half. I’m sure they’re looking for some payback tonight. It was their biggest loss of the season by a mile; the next biggest was by 19 points.
In the last two weeks the Cavs have a net rating of +24.2 points per 100 possessions. The next best team is the Knicks at +12.2. The Cavs are killing it right now. Their average margin of victory in their eight-game win streak is 22.5 points.
The Bucks have no injuries to report so they will be at full strength this time. Giannis is dealing with a right shoulder contusion but is listed as “probable”. The Cavs are still missing Garland and Mobley. LeVert is still a game time decision last I saw.
The Bucks are an older team that relies on a few big names to win games for them. Damian Lillard is 33, Khris Middleton 32, Brook Lopez 35, and Jae Crowder 33. All but Crowder are starters. Their top six players score 108 of their 124 points per game. They seem to have put all their resources into putting the best possible starting five on the floor, but after their top six nobody is averaging even eight points per game.
They may be old but they can really shoot. The Bucks are tied for first in scoring average at 124.6 ppg and lead the league in effective field goal percentage. They are just 15th in points in the paint, however, as they are mainly a 3-point shooting team. They rank 6th in both 3-point rate and 3-point accuracy. They are 1st in 2-point accuracy.
The Bucks do a great job of protecting the ball with the 5th lowest turnover percentage. They are 3rd in free throw attempts per play, mostly thanks to Giannis and his many referee friends around the league. So the Bucks shoot really well, don’t turn the ball over, and draw a lot of fouls. End result is that nobody is averaging more points per game. The only area where they are below average is offensive rebound percentage (24th). If you can make them miss the first shot you stand a good chance of getting the rebound. Crashing the offensive glass takes too much energy which needs to be conserved.
Defense is another story. At 120.5 ppg the Bucks allow more points per game than all but five other teams. These old fellas don’t like to play defense, or maybe they just save their energy for offense. They’re pretty good at forcing missed shots, especially on 3’s, where they are 4th in opponents’ 3-point percentage. They’re 17th in 2-point percentage so the Cavs should probably attack the rim and not try to force up a lot of 3’s. The Bucks are 25th in points allowed in the paint. If the Bucks’ weakness is defending the paint then that’s where the Cavs should go.
The Bucks’ problem on defense is they are last in the NBA in forcing turnovers. Like I said, going for steals is too much work. As a result they allow more shot attempts per game than any team in the league so despite being 9th in effective field goal percentage they’re 25th in points allowed. They’re average in defensive rebound percentage.
This could be a pretty high scoring game as the Cavs’ offense has been rolling lately, the Bucks defense sucks, and the Bucks are a great offensive team when Giannis is on the floor. He’s averaging 31 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists, so he is directly involved in about 45 points a game.
This game and the next will be strength against strength as the Bucks have the league’s best scoring offense and the Cavs have the second best scoring defense, and the best by far over the last two weeks. In that period the Cavs have allowed 96.8 points per 100 possessions. Second best is the Knicks at 104.4, almost 8 points behind. However, we’re not playing San Antonio, Washington, or Chicago this time. So these next two games will be real tests to see just how good this defense is.
Giannis shoots 60% from the field but just 23% on 3’s, so the key is to double him so he can’t penetrate, make him pick up his dribble, and then scramble to cover the 3-point shooters. His height allows him to easily pass out of double teams so a better plan might be to just play him straight up and let him score 40 points on 2-point shots, but don’t allow any passes to open 3-point shooters. The Bucks are 6th in 3-point percentage. My game plan would be to make them shoot as many 2’s as possible and contest every 3-point attempt.
In his only game against the Cavs this year Giannis had 34 points, 16 rebounds, and 5 assists. I’m sure he’ll be looking for numbers like that these next two games. However, he missed last week with the contusion to his shooting shoulder and yesterday was listed as a game time decision, so that shoulder may affect his shooting. I would not double him if the result is going to be an uncontested 3 from one of his teammates.
Lillard is averaging 25 points and 7 assists in 35 minutes per game. That’s a lot of minutes for a 33-year-old point guard. I would have Mitchell and Porter moving constantly on offense, forcing Dame to run continuously when the Cavs have the ball. Try to wear him down playing defense so his offense is impacted, in other words.
Middleton had a miserable game against the Cavs last week, going 1-for-10 with a -40 in 20 minutes of action. But in their last game he scored 26 against Detroit, so he should be ready to redeem himself in front of the home crowd. He’s shooting 49% overall and 38% on 3’s. He can still score, but after injuries the last two years they’re limiting him to 26 minutes per game, hoping to get him through the season.
Brook Lopez averages just 13 points and 5 rebounds per game. In two games against Milwaukee Jarrett Allen is averaging 25.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists on 75% shooting. IOW, he’s been destroying Lopez, who has averaged 10 points and 7 rebounds against the Cavs.
Malik Beasley and Bobby Portis both average 12 points. Beasley is hitting 47% of his 3’s so the Cavs can’t leave him alone in order to double Giannis. Beasley is 5-for-11 against the Cavs on 3’s. He’s second in the NBA in 3-point percentage and takes about six per game.
The Cavs beat the Bucks easily without Giannis and would have beaten them with him had they not missed all 22 uncontested 3’s. That was a freak occurrence which probably never happens again. Everybody had their worst 3-point shooting night of the season in the same game. It was bizarre. Niang and Wade were both 0-for-6, Mitchell was 2-for-10, and Strus 2-for-11. But on 2-point shots the Cavs were 43-for-60. Maybe they should attack the rim more.
This time it’s in Milwaukee where the Bucks are 19-4, so it’s going to be a real test. The Bucks are at home where they have been almost unbeatable and they’re fully healthy, while the Cavs are missing two starters. If the Cavs can win one of these games, or even lose close ones, it will establish them as serious contenders (if they haven’t already).
Milwaukee has played the third easiest schedule in the NBA and their point differential is +4.1, which is actually worse than the Cavs at +4.3. They have not been impressive recently. In their last two games they beat the 4-39 Pistons by 6 and 9 points. Before that they were blown out by the Cavs and before that they beat Sacramento (10-10 on the road) in overtime at home. Their head coach was fired yesterday.
Based on the fact that their point differential is just +4.1 despite playing the third easiest schedule I suspect they are not as good as their record indicates. Obviously management isn’t pleased. Giannis blasted the whole organization a couple of weeks ago, saying everyone has to do better. Their record may look good but things are not going as well as expected for a team with stars like Giannis, Damian Lillard, Brook Lopez, and Khris Middleton.
The Cavs lost to the Bucks on Dec. 29 in Cleveland 119-111. The Cavs were 6-for-43 on 3’s and missed all 22 of their uncontested 3’s. It was the most frustrating game of the season, for me anyway. The Cavs hit 71% of their 2-point shots but stubbornly kept clanging 3’s off the rim - 37 times to be exact in an 8-point loss.
Last week with Giannis out the Cavs blasted the Bucks by 40 points. The Bucks’ starters did not look happy as they sat on the bench in the second half. I’m sure they’re looking for some payback tonight. It was their biggest loss of the season by a mile; the next biggest was by 19 points.
In the last two weeks the Cavs have a net rating of +24.2 points per 100 possessions. The next best team is the Knicks at +12.2. The Cavs are killing it right now. Their average margin of victory in their eight-game win streak is 22.5 points.
The Bucks have no injuries to report so they will be at full strength this time. Giannis is dealing with a right shoulder contusion but is listed as “probable”. The Cavs are still missing Garland and Mobley. LeVert is still a game time decision last I saw.
The Bucks are an older team that relies on a few big names to win games for them. Damian Lillard is 33, Khris Middleton 32, Brook Lopez 35, and Jae Crowder 33. All but Crowder are starters. Their top six players score 108 of their 124 points per game. They seem to have put all their resources into putting the best possible starting five on the floor, but after their top six nobody is averaging even eight points per game.
They may be old but they can really shoot. The Bucks are tied for first in scoring average at 124.6 ppg and lead the league in effective field goal percentage. They are just 15th in points in the paint, however, as they are mainly a 3-point shooting team. They rank 6th in both 3-point rate and 3-point accuracy. They are 1st in 2-point accuracy.
The Bucks do a great job of protecting the ball with the 5th lowest turnover percentage. They are 3rd in free throw attempts per play, mostly thanks to Giannis and his many referee friends around the league. So the Bucks shoot really well, don’t turn the ball over, and draw a lot of fouls. End result is that nobody is averaging more points per game. The only area where they are below average is offensive rebound percentage (24th). If you can make them miss the first shot you stand a good chance of getting the rebound. Crashing the offensive glass takes too much energy which needs to be conserved.
Defense is another story. At 120.5 ppg the Bucks allow more points per game than all but five other teams. These old fellas don’t like to play defense, or maybe they just save their energy for offense. They’re pretty good at forcing missed shots, especially on 3’s, where they are 4th in opponents’ 3-point percentage. They’re 17th in 2-point percentage so the Cavs should probably attack the rim and not try to force up a lot of 3’s. The Bucks are 25th in points allowed in the paint. If the Bucks’ weakness is defending the paint then that’s where the Cavs should go.
The Bucks’ problem on defense is they are last in the NBA in forcing turnovers. Like I said, going for steals is too much work. As a result they allow more shot attempts per game than any team in the league so despite being 9th in effective field goal percentage they’re 25th in points allowed. They’re average in defensive rebound percentage.
This could be a pretty high scoring game as the Cavs’ offense has been rolling lately, the Bucks defense sucks, and the Bucks are a great offensive team when Giannis is on the floor. He’s averaging 31 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists, so he is directly involved in about 45 points a game.
This game and the next will be strength against strength as the Bucks have the league’s best scoring offense and the Cavs have the second best scoring defense, and the best by far over the last two weeks. In that period the Cavs have allowed 96.8 points per 100 possessions. Second best is the Knicks at 104.4, almost 8 points behind. However, we’re not playing San Antonio, Washington, or Chicago this time. So these next two games will be real tests to see just how good this defense is.
Giannis shoots 60% from the field but just 23% on 3’s, so the key is to double him so he can’t penetrate, make him pick up his dribble, and then scramble to cover the 3-point shooters. His height allows him to easily pass out of double teams so a better plan might be to just play him straight up and let him score 40 points on 2-point shots, but don’t allow any passes to open 3-point shooters. The Bucks are 6th in 3-point percentage. My game plan would be to make them shoot as many 2’s as possible and contest every 3-point attempt.
In his only game against the Cavs this year Giannis had 34 points, 16 rebounds, and 5 assists. I’m sure he’ll be looking for numbers like that these next two games. However, he missed last week with the contusion to his shooting shoulder and yesterday was listed as a game time decision, so that shoulder may affect his shooting. I would not double him if the result is going to be an uncontested 3 from one of his teammates.
Lillard is averaging 25 points and 7 assists in 35 minutes per game. That’s a lot of minutes for a 33-year-old point guard. I would have Mitchell and Porter moving constantly on offense, forcing Dame to run continuously when the Cavs have the ball. Try to wear him down playing defense so his offense is impacted, in other words.
Middleton had a miserable game against the Cavs last week, going 1-for-10 with a -40 in 20 minutes of action. But in their last game he scored 26 against Detroit, so he should be ready to redeem himself in front of the home crowd. He’s shooting 49% overall and 38% on 3’s. He can still score, but after injuries the last two years they’re limiting him to 26 minutes per game, hoping to get him through the season.
Brook Lopez averages just 13 points and 5 rebounds per game. In two games against Milwaukee Jarrett Allen is averaging 25.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists on 75% shooting. IOW, he’s been destroying Lopez, who has averaged 10 points and 7 rebounds against the Cavs.
Malik Beasley and Bobby Portis both average 12 points. Beasley is hitting 47% of his 3’s so the Cavs can’t leave him alone in order to double Giannis. Beasley is 5-for-11 against the Cavs on 3’s. He’s second in the NBA in 3-point percentage and takes about six per game.
The Cavs beat the Bucks easily without Giannis and would have beaten them with him had they not missed all 22 uncontested 3’s. That was a freak occurrence which probably never happens again. Everybody had their worst 3-point shooting night of the season in the same game. It was bizarre. Niang and Wade were both 0-for-6, Mitchell was 2-for-10, and Strus 2-for-11. But on 2-point shots the Cavs were 43-for-60. Maybe they should attack the rim more.
This time it’s in Milwaukee where the Bucks are 19-4, so it’s going to be a real test. The Bucks are at home where they have been almost unbeatable and they’re fully healthy, while the Cavs are missing two starters. If the Cavs can win one of these games, or even lose close ones, it will establish them as serious contenders (if they haven’t already).
