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2023-24 Season | Game #47 | Cavs @ Spurs | Feb. 3, 2022 | 8:30 p.m.

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Wham with the Right Hand

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Winners of 12 of their last 13 and 17 of 21, the Cavs finish their season series against San Antonio with a road game against the 10-39 Spurs, who are 5-20 at home. These teams met in Cleveland a month ago and the Cavs emerged with a hard fought 117-115 win. The Cavs were up by 13 with 2:42 to go but Pops dialed up a surprise full court press that discombobulated the Cavs, resulting in an 11-0 Spurs run to close the game. The Cavs hung on for the 2-point win.

The Cavs seem to play their best against the strongest teams and play down to the competition against weak teams, which we just saw in close wins over Detroit and Memphis. The Spurs, like the Pistons, have been playing better lately, winning 3 of their last 8 games and losing by one point to New Orleans.

The good news for the Cavs is the Spurs played last night while the Cavs had a day off. However, the Spurs were at home so there was no travel involved. Also, the Spurs are a very young team with the oldest player in their rotation being 28 (Cedi Osman). So I doubt the BTB will be an issue, although this will be their third game in four days, all at home, so fatigue may be a minor factor.

The Spurs beat Minnesota last Saturday so they are capable of taking down anybody who isn’t ready to do battle. However, starting SF Keldon Johnson, averaging just under 17 ppg, is listed as a game time decision.

For the season the Spurs are well below average on both ends, ranking 24th in scoring and 26th in scoring defense. On offense the Spurs like to jack up 3’s, ranking 11th in 3-rate. However, they rank 19th in 3-point percentage at home (36.2%) so get ready for some missed 3’s. Teams that shoot a lot of 3’s don’t get fouled as much, and in fact the Spurs are 29th in free throw attempts per possession. They also commit a lot of turnovers (24th) and and well below average on the offensive glass (25th).

The Spurs play at an extremely fast pace, ranking 4th in field goal attempts per game despite the high number of turnovers and the low number of offensive rebounds. It looks to me like they hustle the ball up the floor and try to get a shot off before the defense can set up. They are 4th in assists; Pops won’t put up with a lot of iso crap. NBA.com has them ranked 5th in pace; the Cavs are 22nd. The Spurs will try to push the pace while the Cavs may prefer to slow it down.

Defensively the Spurs are not good, ranking 28th in opponents’ effective field goal percentage. They are 27th in opponents’ 3-point percentage and 20th in 2-point percentage. With Wembanyama lurking around the paint it might be better to shoot a lot of 3’s, especially since the Spurs are so bad at defending them.

The Spurs are 25th in defensive rebound percentage so they give up a lot of second chances, despite their youth and height. I’m not sure what’s going on there.

cleaningtheglass.com has them 26th in point differential for the season but 21st the last two weeks (the Cavs are 3rd). The Spurs have been playing better recently but are still a below average team.

In the first game between these teams the Cavs were playing their third game with Garland and Mobley out. The Spurs’ starters were all between +9 and +17 while the Cavs’ starters were equally negative. The Cavs were saved by their bench. Niang was a +27 in 27 minutes while LeVert and Merrill had 23 and 18 points. TT was a +12 in 17 minutes. Allen was a monster with 29 points and 16 rebounds, but he left Thursday’s game with a sprained ankle and is listed as a game time decision for tonight.

Mobley should be back but on limited minutes so if Allen can’t go the Cavs will depend on Damian Jones, who played well in 15 minutes on Thursday.

Wemby is the big attraction, of course. The 7’4” rookie averaged 24 points and 10 rebounds in January along with 3.3 blocks, but he also averaged 3.6 turnovers. He’s shooting a solid 46.5% from the field but only 30% on 3’s.

SG Devin Vassell averages 18.4 ppg and SF Keldon Johnson contributes 16.7 ppg. PF Zach Collins, 6’11”, averages 12 points and 6 rebounds. He missed the first game between these teams. PF Jeremy Sochan, 6’8”, averages 12 and 6 while PG Tre Jones averages 9.5 points. Cedi Osman averages 18 minutes off the bench and 7.4 points on 49% overall and 37% on 3’s.

Last night the Spurs lost 114-113 to the 27-21 Pelicans. They led by a point with 8 seconds to go but they missed a shot, the Pelicans got the rebound, and Zion hit the game winner.

The Cavs are clearly the better team, but in my opinion they have a bad habit of playing down to the level of the opponent. In the game in Cleveland they had everything under control with a 13-point lead with under 3 minutes left and almost threw it away. This time they need to be ready when Pops calls for a full court press. And JBB needs to show them the film of the Spurs win over Minnesota just a week ago so they aren’t too complacent.

Fun fact: AFAIK, the Spurs are the only pro sports team named after a device used to inflict pain on animals who are not doing anything wrong. At least until some minor league baseball team calls inself the "Branding Irons" or the "Banderillas". And the Indians had to change their name?
 
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I'm feeling uneasy about this game, on the road, against Wemby, possibly without Allen.

We should win and I feel we have about a 55% chance of victory, but if we don't shoot well from 3 and we turn the ball over, we can lose. Regardless, I think Wemby will get a double-double with 20-30 points. But our defense should win the game.

115-100 Cavs
 
I'm feeling uneasy about this game, on the road, against Wemby, possibly without Allen.

That sounds like you identify as a longtime Cavs fan. I feel uneasy about every game, regardless of venue, opponent, or Cavs IR list. :chuckle:
 
I don't think the Cavs played down to our competition at all. Cavs have been kicking butt and taking names since early to mid December. The last two or three games have centered around fitting Mobley and Garland back into a lineup that had great chemistry together. I know a couple posters don't believe in the chemistry thing that was taking place and that's fine. But the flow of what was working, and working very well, has been disrupted. Different lineups in and out of the game. Some of those lineups have been rather odd too. Will the Cavs adapt to the changes and play at the level they did for a month and half? It remains to be seen. But they definately were not playing down (or up for that matter) to the level of competition.
 
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I don't think the Cavs played down to our competition at all. Cavs have been kicking butt and taking name since early to mid December. The last two or three games have centered around fitting Mobley and Garland back into a lineup that had great chemistry together. I know a couple posters don't believe in the chemistry thing that was taking place and that's fine. But the flow of what was working, and working very well, has been disrupted. Different lineups in and out of the game. Some of those lineups have been rather odd too. Will the Cavs adapt to the changes and play at the level they did for a month and half? It remains to be seen. But they definately were not playing down (or up for that matter) to the level of competition.

I don’t think either of the last two games was closer than expected due to lack of effort or not taking the opponent seriously. JBB said the first half was to try out different rotations and the second would be to go with what worked. Obviously vs Memphis Mobley’s absence and JA’s injury meant we had to change on the fly (which was done well).

I think the rotations with minutes restrictions will be weird because we really have to play the starters together. They need to try and work out the fit issues. So while it makes sense on one level to have one each of Allen / Mobley and Mitchell / Garland on the floor at all times I get the short term minutes restrictions means that won’t be the case. When the restrictions are over then we should see one of each combo at all times on the floor.

The difficult issue will be if It becomes clear we play better with Ice and/or Wade as partners for Mitchell and Allen than Garland and/or Mobley. I’m going to be watching the death rotation in the last five minutes of the game closely - that’s when we see who JBB trusts each night (and night-to-night). Some will based on matchups or who has the hot hand but there’s also a question of which combos are working and which are not.
 
The Spurs are outscoring their opponents by a whopping 14.5 points per 100 possessions when PG Tre Jones is on the floor, which puts him in the 98th percentile. Next highest is Devin Vassell at +6.4. Jones, a 2nd round pick in his fourth season, has been getting steadily better every year.

It's hard to believe a team that is 10-39 can have anybody with a +14.5. The Spurs as a team are a -8.4 so they are a -23 when Jones is not in the game. Jones is in the 89th percentile for point guards in assist to usage rate. He's 6'1" so watching him match up against Garland and Mitchell will be interesting.

The lineup of Jones/Sochan/Vassell/Keldon Johnson/Wemby is outscoring opponents by 33 points per 100 possessions. However, they've only played 131 possessions as Pops just started using it recently. Their most common used lineup has Julian Champagnie at PF instead of Johnson; that lineup is a +7.8.

Johnson was out last night as the Spurs lost by one point to the Pelicans. He and Zach Collins are listed as game time decisions, although Collins played 20 minutes last night. Johnson and Collins are their 3rd and 4th leading scorers, combining for 29 points per game. If one or both can't go it would really help the Cavs.

Wemby is still on a minutes restriction, averaging 28.4 minutes per game, so the Cavs have about 20 minutes a game with him on the bench.
 
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The Cavs could conceivably be 2nd in the East by night's end.
The Lakers beat Boston at the Garden two nights ago without LeBron and AD. Those two are listed as game time decisions tonight against the Knicks.

We'll be watching the scores of the Lakers-Knicks and Bucks-Mavericks tonight while the Cavs are playing.
 
That sounds like you identify as a longtime Cavs fan. I feel uneasy about every game, regardless of venue, opponent, or Cavs IR list. :chuckle:
You got it! I started as a Cavs fan in 1970 and lived through the 15 win season. I also had the thrill of the Miracle in Richfield, and then the great team assembled with Ron Harper, Mark Price, Brad Daugherty, and Larry Nance.
 
Another dance with the superstar to be tonight. And the coach who should retire after this abysmal season.
 

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