2023-24 Season | Playoff series #1 | Cavaliers vs. Magic |

[jjvors]

Okey-dokey! We lost 2 in Orlando and we're back in Cleveland tied 2-2. Three games left in the series and two are at home. Win two of those and we win the series.

So, how do my predictions look?

If 2-2, chance of victory 52%, Cavs 113-107

Game 6, If 3-2 chance of victory 49%, Cavs 119-116

If 2-3 chance of victory 43%, Cavs 112-109

Chance of Cavs winning in 6:

25.48%​

​

Chance of Magic winning in 6: 27.36%

Game 7:

Game 7, 53% chance of victory 119-114

Overall:

Cav's victory:	50.75%​
Magic victory:	49.77%​

So, flip a coin.

 

[Pierre Pan]

the latest from Terry Pluto:

The Cavs’ problems are deeper than coach J.B. Bickerstaff – Terry Pluto — cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio – I’ve been receiving lots of emails about the Cavs, and nearly every one has this theme: Fire J.B. Bickerstaff.

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CLEVELAND, Ohio – I’ve been receiving lots of emails about the Cavs, and nearly every one has this theme: Fire J.B. Bickerstaff.

Not sure if some of the writers want it done between Games 4 and 5 of the first round series with Orlando. There is almost a twisted pleasure experienced by some writers urging a coaching change because they have been mad at Bickerstaff dating back to last year’s playoff loss to New York.

None of them mentioned this fact: The Cavs have been in nine postseason games in the last two years, and they have scored at least 100 points … ONCE!
Granted, their two opponents have been strong defensive teams – New York and Orlando.

Nonetheless, the lack of scoring at least 100 points in an era where the average NBA team scores 114 points is a problem.

Yes, scoring goes down in the playoffs. So I checked the recent stats. Of the 16 teams in the postseason, 10 are averaging at least 100 points. The average is 106 points.

Only New Orleans (89 points) is averaging fewer points than the Cavs (91) in the 2024 playoffs.

The lack of offense is a fair criticism of Bickerstaff.

WHAT ABOUT DONOVAN MITCHELL?

Can we stop the tirades about Bickerstaff for a moment and ask what’s up with some key players?

Donovan Mitchell scored 18 points in the first half of Game 4 when the Cavs roared to a 60-51 lead at the intermission.

In the third quarter, the Cavs were outscored 37-10. Mitchell didn’t score a point. He took only four shots after halftime, missing them all. For the game, he had as many turnovers (6) as assists (6).

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The Cavs lost Game 4 by a 112-89 verdict.

SOME OTHER FACTS ON MITCHELL

1. Two days earlier, the Magic nearly made the Cavs disappear. Cleveland’s 121-83 loss was the most lopsided playoff defeat in franchise history. In that Game 3, Mitchell scored 13 points.

2 In the two road losses, Mitchell is averaging 14.5 points, shooting 36%.

3. Mitchell has played in nine postseason games for the Cavs. He’s averaging 22 points, shooting 42% from the field, and 27% on 3-pointers.

4. In his last playoff appearance with Utah vs. Dallas in 2022, the Jazz lost the first-round series in six games. Mitchell averaged 25.5 points, shooting 40% from the field and 21% on 3-pointers.

5. Mitchell had a reputation as a big-time player in the postseason. With Utah in the 2020-21 playoffs, he averaged 34 points and shot 48% in 17 playoff games. This is the Mitchell the Cavs hoped they were getting. But the last three postseasons have been a different story.

I like Mitchell as a player and a person. I am almost shocked by how he has disappeared at times in the playoffs. He’s dealt with a knee injury this year. At times in the playoffs, he looks healthy … other times, not.

In his interviews, Mitchell has not offered any excuses for his poor performance. But something is wrong, and it’s not just coaching. His last playoff appearance in Utah (2022) was very inconsistent.

WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER GUYS?

Remember how Max Strus was acquired for his playoff experience? He was supposed to help keep the Cavs from collapsing.

In four games, Strus is shooting 38% and averaging 6.3 points. He is supposed to hit from 3-point range … but he’s 3 of 17 … that’s right, 3 of 17 on 3-pointers!

Georges Niang was another veteran brought to Cleveland to score from the the 3-point line. He’s 1 of 11 on 3-pointers. He’s scored a total of 14 points in 74 minutes.

Darius Garland is averaging 12 points, shooting 41% from both the field and 3-point line. He has 12 turnovers, second only to Mitchell, who has 15.

Evan Mobley has been up and down. The same with Caris LeVert.

Only Jarrett Allen has been productive in every game, averaging 17 points and 13.89 rebounds, shooting 67%.

None of this is meant as a strong defense of Bickerstaff. He has a chance to pull the team together and make some significant adjustments in Game 5 in Cleveland on Tuesday. The best-of-seven series is 2-2, the home team winning all four games.

The point is the Cavs should not be close to being finished, even though it feels that way after being whacked twice in Orlando.

But it really comes down to the players. Will they show poise and toughness as they did in the first games? Will they finally make a few shots? Will Mitchell play like a star?

That matters even more than any of the X’s and O’s and strategic changes Bickerstaff will make for Tuesday night.

 

[Pierre Pan]

More from the Fear the Sword crew :

The Cavs don’t want to win enough — Fear The Sword

Orlando looks like they want it more, and the results speak for themselves.

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“We didn’t punch first. We were always being punched, and that’s what had to change.”

“Losses like these make you aware of the areas you need to improve in. They make you understand all the things that everybody tells you about playoff basketball.”

“For me personally, I don’t feel like I was the player I needed to be for this group,” Donovan Mitchell told the Akron Beacon Journal.

All of those quotes resonate for the Cleveland Cavaliers, who were just manhandled for the second game in a row against the Orlando Magic. Except those quotes aren’t actually from the latest Cavs’ loss. They are from last season’s playoff failure.

Look familiar? They should.

In the first two games of the series against Orland Magic, the Cavs played like the older brother holding their younger sibling at arm’s length. The Cavs looked like a team that may have learned from their failures one year ago. But after having the doors blown off twice in a row in Orlando, emphatically and embarrassingly, it's become clear the Cavs have not learned anything. It's worse.

Following the elimination last season, the Cavs’ core vowed to learn and get better. The front office tried to insulate the youth with battle-tested players like Max Strus and Georges Niang. Head Coach J.B. Bickerstaff preached in the preseason about “being more dynamic” on offense. Mitchell knew he needed to be better.

Instead, the Cavs got worse year-over-year. They won fewer games. The offense went from seventh in the league last season to 18th this year. Darius Garland showed alarming regression from rising star to replacement-level point guard. Strus and Niang had their regular-season moments, but haven’t shown up in the playoffs. Dating back to last year’s postseason, the Cavs have failed to score 100 points in now seven consecutive playoff games. The bench unit is still woefully undermanned. Bickerstaff is the same coach as he was before, unable to adjust on the fly with questionable rotations.

The Cavs shot 12-51 from three-point territory in the games in Orlando, wilting like a plant in the hot Florida sun. The bench has not helped stop the bleeding at all. There is no release valve for when Mitchell is double-teamed. There are no lineup changes to figure things out. The Cavs effectively pulled the plug midway through the third quarter of Game 3, punting away an opportunity for the starters to figure out some things about Orlando’s defense. In Game 4, the Cavs folded like a lawn chair, which they tend to do when times get tough.

They gave up. They didn’t want it badly enough, and the body language showed as much.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the court, the Magic look like that Cavaliers team that shocked the league in 2021-2022. Young, full of energy, and a chip on their shoulder. Paolo Banchero is unafraid of the moment. Even when Banchero struggled in Game 4, Franz Wagner picked him up and willed the Magic to a win. Jalen Suggs smothered Mitchell (and, effectively, the entire Cavs’ offense), holding him to 1-6 shooting and three turnovers as the primary defender. They play like the floor is on fire, relentless on defense and forcing turnovers.

Meanwhile, the Cavs look like a team that does not care if they lose. There isn’t any aggression or intimidation. No team is fearful of them, and they don’t impose their will at any point. They seem like a bunch of guys that are nice to be around but not ones you would want on your side in a battle.

The Cavs led by nine points at the half in Game 4, looking like they could cruise to a win and a 3-1 lead. Instead, they’re heading back to Cleveland tied 2-2 in a series that they seemed to prefer over facing the Miami Heat or Philadelphia 76ers. It's still a best-of-three series, but the momentum has clearly and dramatically shifted. The team in front of them is a better version of themselves from a few years ago, one that is hungry for more.

When will the Cavs show they want it more? Will they ever?

 

[Kouki]

I wasn't able to watch the game Saturday due to a wedding. My friend was texting me updates throughout the ceremony lol.

Did DM look injured?

I'm wondering if they are just working on pain management right now, and it wears off (or he tightens up, or it's just losing effectiveness) after halftime.

 

[cavsfever]

What worries me about Donovan is that it's not just this year. Mitchell has been in a long term downward trajectory in the playoffs since the 2020-21 season. Donovan made his rep with spectacular playoff performances in 2019-20 and 2020-21 when he was among the leading offensive producers in the entire playoffs. Since then he has trended downward in efficiency, scoring, and PER every year --

2019-2020 -- 36.3 ppg on 69% true shooting and 33 PER
2020-2021 -- 32.3 ppg on 60% true shooting and 26.4 PER
2021-2022 -- 25.5 ppg on 51% true shooting and 19 PER
2022-2023 -- 23.2 ppg on 52% true shooting and 15.7 PER
2023-2024 (so far) -- 21.0 ppg on 52% true shooting and 15.3 PER

51-52% true shooting is not good and corresponds to an overall shooting percentage around 40% and a three point shooting percentage around 25% for the last three playoff years.

"Playoff mode" Donovan Mitchell has not been a good thing for the last three years.

 

[Pierre Pan]

I wasn't able to watch the game Saturday due to a wedding. My friend was texting me updates throughout the ceremony lol.

Did DM look injured?

I'm wondering if they are just working on pain management right now, and it wears off (or he tightens up, or it's just losing effectiveness) after halftime.

IMO, he didn’t look worse than in previous games and it’s not like he physically struggled as the game went on. I haven’t seen any explosiveness from him in months and I’m pretty sure he’s not 100%, but few players are at this point in the season. Fedor specifically asked him if there was anything keeping him from being effective and he never offered any hint of an excuse. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if he wound up having knee surgery in the offseason . Absent of surgery, his play has been disappointing and other star players around the league (Embiid for example is clearly equally if not more hampered) can still come up with big games.

Those numbers in the Pluto article above detail postseason shooting woes for years now going back to Utah, so it can’t always be injury related either

 

[eChameleon]

8PM start tomorrow night.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

The bigger question is the one that's been around for a couple of years. Can a team win a playoff series with two bigs on the floor together who have no shooting range beyond eight feet?

Banchero, Wagner, Carter, and Isaac are hitting 3's for the Magic. They're all 6'10". Joel Embiid is hitting 3's for the Sixers and Brook Lopez developed a 3-point shot in Milwaukee. Jokic and Michael Porter Jr hit 38% and 44% of their 3's for NBA Champion Denver this season. Myles Turner is shooting 50% on 3's for Indiana in the post-season.

We also have two point guards on the floor together and a shooting guard starting at small forward guarding 6'10" Franz Wagner. Basically our lineup consists of two centers, neither of whom has a mid-range jumper or a 3-point shot, two point guards, and one shooting guard. And our best offensive players is clearly less than 100%.

On top of that we have no bench. Okoro, Niang, and LeVert have been ineffective at best. LeVert is shooting 33% overall and 23% on 3's. Niang is shooting 23% and 9%. Okoro is averaging 3.5 points and 1 rebound in 20 minutes. Please, Cavs, never again draft a 6'5" small forward who can't dribble or shoot, especially with the #5 pick.

The Cavs were at their best when Mobley and Garland were out with injuries. They played with ONE point guard, ONE center, had a power forward who could defend AND shoot 3's (Wade), had their best point guard playing point guard (Mitchell), and could put four 3-point shooters on the floor.

Unfortunately, we can't do that this series because Wade is out and Niang can't play Wade-level defense and he's making less than 10% of his 3's.

I think the biggest problem is that the starting unit is fundamentally flawed; too many centers and point guards and no legitimate forwards, and this is a forward dominated league.

Mitchell is a 1 playing the 2, Strus is a 2 playing the 3, LeVert is a 1 playing the 2, and Mobley is a 5 playing the 4. If the Cavs lose this series it's time to blow it up and start constructing a lineup that makes sense.

 

[cavsfever]

Koby committed $90 million in salary in the off season and didn't fix the problems @Wham with the Right Hand just pointed to, even though they were also evident last year. He got a three point specialist who is a natural SG and not a SF, therefore didn't plug our backcourt issue, and another three point specialist who is unplayable defensively in the front court (and also appears unreliable offensively under conditions of playoff intensity), therefore didn't solve our front court issue either.

 

[bushwick_bill]

 

[bushwick_bill]

 

[jjvors]

Good stats. The solution is pretty clear:
1. Get Allen 18 shots per game--or more.
2. Have Garland take at least 10 3 pointers per game.
3. Run the offense through Mitchell, and Mobley, and they feed our two shooters.

Does this make me an NBA coach?

 

[Pierre Pan]

CPJ, Wade and even Ty Jerome all officially out for Tuesday’s game; aka the usual suspects

 

[Jake]

I'd give Morris some minutes soon. He may bring something that's missing in attitude and sink a few 3's that Naing, Strus, Mitchell, others cant seem to make.

 

[buzzdog]

I dunno man, I think you have to still trot out out "outside shooting mercenaries" and see if any of them can relocate their shooting stroke. Without forcing some floor spacing on the Magic and making them pay for packing the paint our asses are cooked.