2023 Offseason Potential Targets (FA and Trades)

[ShawnKempIsMyDad]

Dude has been possessed by the ghost of Ted Stepien.

This may be the worst proposed trade I’ve ever seen.

 

[I'mWithDan]

You're putting a lot faith in projection stats for a guy who was strictly a bench player. In real life, he averaged 9.3 ppg on 8 fga per game against other bench units.

I feel like you're not trying to have a serious conversation, so we can move on.

Per 100 isn't a "projection" stat. It is the benchmark for comparing impact across the same number of opportunities. Things like per game and per 36 are influenced by other factors like pace, roster construction, coaching, etc. Per 100 is taking the same number of chances and seeing which player is more effective. In is, in fact, a measure of "real life".

 

[CavsKermit]

I feel like you're not trying to have a serious conversation, so we can move on.

Per 100 isn't a "projection" stat. It is the benchmark for comparing impact across the same number of opportunities. Things like per game and per 36 are influenced by other factors like pace, roster construction, coaching, etc. Per 100 is taking the same number of chances and seeing which player is more effective. In is, in fact, a measure of "real life".

Yeah, but the point you keep ignoring is that there's a real problem with using per possession stats on bench players who average around 20mpg and then assuming those numbers will hold as a starter playing a starter's minutes.

It's not unreasonable to ask whether Eason falls to a 4th or 5th option offensively as a starter and gets far fewer attempts per possession. It's not unreasonable to ask whether he can still get as many garbage points or trips to the line against starting units with better rim protection. It's not unreasonable to ask whether the inclusion in a starting unit is so detrimental to spacing that the cons eventually outway the pros (see Okoro).

 

[JJ_PR]

Personally, I think both are good prospects. Altman made a good selection but unfortunately, either one would've been included in the Mitchell trade regardless of who was selected.

Agbaji reminds me of J.R. Smith while Eason is like a Trevor Ariza. That's their ceilings, I think.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Yeah, but the point you keep ignoring is that there's a real problem with using per possession stats on bench players who average around 20mpg and then assuming those numbers will hold as a starter playing a starter's minutes.

The NBA is not hockey. You are speaking as if players play against 3rd lines or something. The average NBA team plays 7, maybe 8 guys consistently. Any minutes you log are going to involve starters being on the court.....and the difference between playing players 1-5 on a team and playing 1-3 and 6-7 is completely negligible over the course of a season. This isn't some gotcha thing.....it literally means nothing that he came off the bench as a rookie.

Jaylen Brown started 25% of the games and played 17.2 minutes his first year, when the only other SF's on their roster were Jae Crowder and a converted SG Gerald Green. Especially at SF, it is tough for a young player to make an impact. Then in year 2, you tend to really see guys start to vault forward. So Eason initially showing the ability to impact at the 3 as a rookie is definitely unique. It doesn't happen to the degree he did often......which is evidence by the names he lands around when comparing rookie years.

It's not unreasonable to ask whether Eason falls to a 4th or 5th option offensively as a starter and gets far fewer attempts per possession. It's not unreasonable to ask whether he can still get as many garbage points or trips to the line against starting units with better rim protection. It's not unreasonable to ask whether the inclusion in a starting unit is so detrimental to spacing that the cons eventually outway the pros (see Okoro).

The funniest part about these things is you clearly aren't digging in on any of this. It is just an idea you are throwing out.....and seeing if no one responds to it.

Looking at 3 man lineup data, I'd just like to point out that Eason played 25% of his minutes with BOTH Jalen Green and KPJ on the floor......guys who are absolute chuckers. A quarter of his minutes with guys that averaged 46+combined FGA per 100.

Ochai played all his listed 3 man lineup minutes with some combination of Olynik (13.7 FGA per 100), Kessler (11.6 FGA per 100) and Horton Tucker (22.3 FGA per 100)......guys that aren't exactly going to suck all the oxygen out of the room offensively. ALL of Ochai's listed 3-man lineup minutes were played with players that would very freely leave some offensive opportunity on the bone for him.

I'm happy to have back and forth on stuff like this and it isn't meant to be mean spirited.....but you are making some really general statements, that don't seem grounded in anything, in order to try to disprove something.

 

[CavsKermit]

The NBA is not hockey. You are speaking as if players play against 3rd lines or something. The average NBA team plays 7, maybe 8 guys consistently. Any minutes you log are going to involve starters being on the court.....and the difference between playing players 1-5 on a team and playing 1-3 and 6-7 is completely negligible over the course of a season. This isn't some gotcha thing.....it literally means nothing that he came off the bench as a rookie.

Jaylen Brown started 25% of the games and played 17.2 minutes his first year, when the only other SF's on their roster were Jae Crowder and a converted SG Gerald Green. Especially at SF, it is tough for a young player to make an impact. Then in year 2, you tend to really see guys start to vault forward. So Eason initially showing the ability to impact at the 3 as a rookie is definitely unique. It doesn't happen to the degree he did often......which is evidence by the names he lands around when comparing rookie years.



The funniest part about these things is you clearly aren't digging in on any of this. It is just an idea you are throwing out.....and seeing if no one responds to it.

Looking at 3 man lineup data, I'd just like to point out that Eason played 25% of his minutes with BOTH Jalen Green and KPJ on the floor......guys who are absolute chuckers. A quarter of his minutes with guys that averaged 46+combined FGA per 100.

Ochai played all his listed 3 man lineup minutes with some combination of Olynik (13.7 FGA per 100), Kessler (11.6 FGA per 100) and Horton Tucker (22.3 FGA per 100)......guys that aren't exactly going to suck all the oxygen out of the room offensively. ALL of Ochai's listed 3-man lineup minutes were played with players that would very freely leave some offensive opportunity on the bone for him.

I'm happy to have back and forth on stuff like this and it isn't meant to be mean spirited.....but you are making some really general statements, that don't seem grounded in anything, in order to try to disprove something.

I have not once said that Eason will be stuck on the bench or won't improve. I've specifically said the opposite. My only point here is that you're putting a lot of faith in the predictive nature of advanced stats for a 7th man who played around 20mpg on the worst team in the NBA.

Larry Nance Jr. had the best advanced stats of any Cav the entire time he was here during the rebuild, but he's a pretty good example of why you can't just assume more is better based solely on advanced stats. There are reasons players come off the bench and the most common among them is that they don't play as well as starters. Maybe their defense isn't up to snuff. Maybe the offensive opportunities aren't there for them in the starting unit. Maybe a player, or the offense as a unit, gets less efficient with higher usage. Sexton had his most efficient season last year playing limited minutes off the bench.

The flipside of the Green/KPJ argument is that Eason was always the third option (at best) while on the floor and opposing defenses no doubt tilted to Green and/or KPJ. Kessler and THT remove driving lanes for their teammates by their mere presence on the floor together and no one in those lineups is scarier than OA.

 

[JJ_PR]

Cavaliers receive: Isaiah Joe, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl & Tre Mann
Thunder receive: Ricky Rubio & 2 2nds ('25 & '26 via Cavs)

Why?
Cleveland adds bench depth.
Thunder get some assets for guys they might cut.

 

[adam81king]

Cavaliers receive: Isaiah Joe, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl & Tre Mann
Thunder receive: Ricky Rubio & 2 2nds ('25 & '26 via Cavs)

Why?
Cleveland adds bench depth.
Thunder get some assets for guys they might cut.

The Cavaliers don't have room on the roster for JAGs and would be foolish to give up draft picks for guys that aren't likely to play.

 

[CleveRocks]

The Cavaliers don't have room on the roster for JAGs and would be foolish to give up draft picks for guys that aren't likely to play.

Don't humor him..