2024 Guardians Regular Season Thread

[Alabuckeye]

I have no reason to believe that Jose will not get rolling at a much higher level. His OBP is .282 which is putrid, and is having some bad at bats as mentioned above…but that happens.

josh, since at least the beginning of the Atlanta series is doing this “swing at the first pitch and hit it weakly to an infielder thing”. Counted at least 4 times and feels like more. Yet we continue to score 5 plus a game.

 

[BimboColesHair]

I get that you want to focus on power, but it's clear that isn't how we're going to win. Some power is nice and necessary, but we're going to have to win at the areas that aren't as highly monetized.

I mean, added power production is literally the only difference between the offense this year (currently scoring the 7th most runs in baseball) vs the offense last year (4th worst scoring team in baseball) though, and we are essentially trotting out the same lineup.

Slugging % is the biggest correlating stat to runs scored. More than BA, more than OBP, you name it. It is almost a 1/1 correlation; I believe .91/1 was the figure from the last study done on it.

Team has a worse batting average than last year's bottom 5 offense. The OBP, BB%, K%, are all almost virtually identical to last years team. But the slugging has gone from 2nd worst in baseball to 10th best so far this year. And the runs have followed suit. And that is with Bo and Josey scuffling too, and running an everyday SS out there with a .298 slug currently.

Power production = runs. Stringing together singles, stealing some bases, manufacturing some runs late by putting pressure on defense is good situational ball, it's not sustainable offense over 162+ games as well as we saw last season, but it also isn't the reason we are scoring a lot of runs right now. It's the increase in XBHs we are seeing compared to last season.

This is why people focus on "power". In modern baseball against modern pitching you need to slug to score. Even more so when the games matter more. You need to slug and you need to prevent runs.

 

[jmilo]

I mean, added power production is literally the only difference between the offense this year (currently scoring the 7th most runs in baseball) vs the offense last year (4th worst scoring team in baseball) though, and we are essentially trotting out the same lineup.

Slugging % is the biggest correlating stat to runs scored. More than BA, more than OBP, you name it. It is almost a 1/1 correlation; I believe .89/1 was the figure from the last study done on it.

Team has a worse batting average than last year's bottom 5 offense. The OBP, BB%, K%, are all almost virtually identical to last years team. But the slugging has gone from 2nd worst in baseball to 10th best so far this year. And the runs have followed suit. And that is with Bo and Josey scuffling too.

Power production = runs. Stringing together singles, stealing some bases, manufacturing some runs late by putting pressure on defense is good situational ball, it's not sustainable offense over 162+ games as well as we saw last season, but it also isn't the reason we are scoring a lot of runs right now. It's the increase in XBHs we are seeing compared to last season.

This is why people focus on "power". In modern baseball against modern pitching you need to slug to score. Even more so when the games matter more. You need to slug and you need to prevent runs.

I stand corrected, I think.

I was generally meaning "power" to mean home runs. I assumed that's what the other poster was talking about.

And yes, they are the primary driver of increased slugging. But I think a fixation on only home runs is going to miss the point.

Your post talks about slugging and XBH.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Kyle Manzardo

There’s an alternate universe in which the Guardians signed José Abreu to a hefty three-year deal 16 months ago, one reminiscent of the contract they handed Edwin Encarnación six years prior. Abreu instead signed with the Astros. He had a rough 2023 season and his stats and metrics were so gruesome this season that the Astros — with his approval — packed his bags for West Palm Beach to figure out if there’s any thunder left in his bat.

Now imagine if Abreu was a Guardian, with a .269 OPS and $19.5 million salaries for this season and next.

From a Hoynes' column in Nov 2022:

Cleveland, according to sources, had “significant interest’ in Abreu. They were willing to offer Abreu three years, but $60 million was beyond their reach for a player who turns 36 in January.

Nobody has reported exactly what the Guardians offered Abreu, but thank goodness the Astros topped it. They're paying him $19.5 million this year to play A ball. The Guardians would be screwed right now if they had that contract hanging around their necks for the next two years.

The Astros will be better now that his 7-for-71 bat is no longer in the lineup.

 

[BimboColesHair]

I stand corrected, I think.

I was generally meaning "power" to mean home runs. I assumed that's what the other poster was talking about.

And yes, they are the primary driver of increased slugging. But I think a fixation on only home runs is going to miss the point.

Your post talks about slugging and XBH.

CDAV knows there is more to power than HRs. Me and him have had that conversation.

2Bs are power. We're currently 6th in baseball in 2Bs. 3Bs are power. We're currently tied for 4th in 3Bs. That is how we are 10th in slugging while 17th in HRs right now.

And we have a number of good doubles hitters on this team.

 

[CBBI]

I vented in the game thread. Naylor swung at the first pitch four at-bats in a row and made five outs, grounding into an inning-ending double play with the bases loaded and one out in the 10th. Did he really think he was going to get a fastball down the middle on the first pitch? Especially after swinging at the first pitch three times in a row?

Incredibly stupid.

He and Jose needed to get at least one run home so the Astros' automatic runner would not tie the game in the bottom of the 10th if he scored. Imagine if Kwan didn't make that catch to end the game. It probably goes to the 11th and our bullpen gets even more taxed. But Jose and Josh put up two awful at-bats with the game on the line.

In his first at-bat Naylor got ahead 2-0. He obviously expected Verlander to throw something in the zone. Wrong! Verlander threw him a fastball above the zone that Naylor chased and the result was an easy fly ball.

I see this all the time with Jose as well. They get ahead 2-0 and gear up for a big swing, thinking this one has to be a strike. It isn't and they either get themselves out chasing a bad pitch or give away a strike. It's so frustrating.

I'm not going to hate on Josh for swinging at the first pitch. That's who he has been all season and he has been really successful being super aggressive swinging away on the first pitch.

He has a 1.013 OPS on the first pitch this year. That drops down to a .761 OPS when he's down in the count.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

High upside is based upon the ability to produce and power plays a huge role in that, but it isn't just "raw power". This team is lacking in that department currently and throwing a bunch of high BA hitters (who aren't hitting for high BA right now) at the problem will do nothing to resolve it. I'm confused how this is such a difficult concept to grasp. It's blatantly obvious when you look at playoff contenders and especially when you narrow it down to those teams that win WS.
As longs as up to 1/2 of this lineup is of the light hitting ilk then we'll continue to be early exits in the playoffs when we make it. The state of our SP might not get us there now.

The Guardians are 6th in the A.L. in slugging percentage. They're 11th in home runs but tied for 3rd in doubles and triples. Of course we would like more home runs but 6th out of 15 in slugging is not bad, especially paired with above average base running and clutch hitting.

For me it's all about scoring runs; I'm indifferent as to whether we get a run on three singles or a solo home run - they all count the same. At the moment the Guardians are 2nd in the A.L. in runs per game, and after last year I'm ecstatic. Last year we were 12th.

I think starting pitching is the bigger problem than lack of power. Only two A.L. teams have less starting pitcher WAR than the Guardians, mainly because their starters have thrown so few innings.

The good news is that Bibee and McKenzie were terrific in their last starts and Lively has come out of nowhere to put up a 2.30 ERA in three starts against Boston and Atlanta. But we have dreck at the other two spots; Carrasco is 37 and has a 6.59 ERA (after 6.80 last year), and Allen has a 5.46 ERA and allowed 16 earned runs in his last 20 innings. Hitters just foul off his stuff until he makes a location mistake or walks them.

Hopefully Gavin Williams comes back at some point and we have four good starters. But they need to come up with at least one more.

 

[CDAV45]

I stand corrected, I think.

I was generally meaning "power" to mean home runs. I assumed that's what the other poster was talking about.

And yes, they are the primary driver of increased slugging. But I think a fixation on only home runs is going to miss the point.

Your post talks about slugging and XBH.

The other poster(me) does want to see more power and HR, but I'm not clamouring for a lineup full of 30 HR hitters. What I would like to see is them not be in the bottom half in MLB of HR. That disadvantage is too much to overcome IMO. Get to 10th with good pitching and defense and the league is in trouble. I want a well balanced team on both sides of the ball.

That could happen because guys like Manzardo, Rodriguez and DeLauter are coming. All of Bo, Arias and Florial have more than enough power. I still believe Brennan has some in the tank. There is plenty of power in Cleveland's system.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

I mean, added power production is literally the only difference between the offense this year (currently scoring the 7th most runs in baseball) vs the offense last year (4th worst scoring team in baseball) though, and we are essentially trotting out the same lineup.

Slugging % is the biggest correlating stat to runs scored. More than BA, more than OBP, you name it. It is almost a 1/1 correlation; I believe .89/1 was the figure from the last study done on it.

Team has a worse batting average than last year's bottom 5 offense. The OBP, BB%, K%, are all almost virtually identical to last years team. But the slugging has gone from 2nd worst in baseball to 10th best so far this year. And the runs have followed suit. And that is with Bo and Josey scuffling too, and running an everyday SS out there with a .298 slug currently.

Power production = runs. Stringing together singles, stealing some bases, manufacturing some runs late by putting pressure on defense is good situational ball, it's not sustainable offense over 162+ games as well as we saw last season, but it also isn't the reason we are scoring a lot of runs right now. It's the increase in XBHs we are seeing compared to last season.

This is why people focus on "power". In modern baseball against modern pitching you need to slug to score. Even more so when the games matter more. You need to slug and you need to prevent runs.

100%
Kuddos to the Guardians staff for being able to increase run production and slugging with a similar roster to the pathetic offensive results from last season.
But the elephant in the room right now is that there is a player ready in Columbus slugging .667.
Don't you think the pressure is on the FO to massage the roster to reduce the glut in some positions, add to the SP, and give Manzardo an opportunity?
He's healthy, he's confident, and he can help.

 

[BimboColesHair]

100%
Kuddos to the Guardians staff for being able to increase run production and slugging with a similar roster to the pathetic offensive results from last season.
But the elephant in the room right now is that there is a player ready in Columbus slugging .667.
Don't you think the pressure is on the FO to massage the roster to reduce the glut in some positions, add to the SP, and give Manzardo an opportunity?
He's healthy, he's confident, and he can help.

I've talked about the risk of calling Manzardo up too early before.

And with no one really running away with the ROTY in the AL right now, save for maybe Cowser, the risk is still there.

In my mind there were only 2 options for him in 2024 making his MLB debut. He either makes the team out of ST, or he is up in mid to late June where he has almost no chance finishing top 2 in the ROTY vote like Bo last year.

 

[CDAV45]

The Guardians are 6th in the A.L. in slugging percentage. They're 11th in home runs but tied for 3rd in doubles and triples. Of course we would like more home runs but 6th out of 15 in slugging is not bad, especially paired with above average base running and clutch hitting.

For me it's all about scoring runs; I'm indifferent as to whether we get a run on three singles or a solo home run - they all count the same. At the moment the Guardians are 2nd in the A.L. in runs per game, and after last year I'm ecstatic. Last year we were 12th.

I think starting pitching is the bigger problem than lack of power. Only two A.L. teams have less starting pitcher WAR than the Guardians, mainly because their starters have thrown so few innings.

The good news is that Bibee and McKenzie were terrific in their last starts and Lively has come out of nowhere to put up a 2.30 ERA in three starts against Boston and Atlanta. But we have dreck at the other two spots; Carrasco is 37 and has a 6.59 ERA (after 6.80 last year), and Allen has a 5.46 ERA and allowed 16 earned runs in his last 20 innings. Hitters just foul off his stuff until he makes a location mistake or walks them.

Hopefully Gavin Williams comes back at some point and we have four good starters. But they need to come up with at least one more.

You'll not find success in the postseason relying on 3 consecutive singles.

I agree that the SP is the bigger problem right now because I believe the power is already in the system. When and if it gets to the surface is the question for me. Are they going to prioritize punch and judy hitters or try to assemble a more potent lineup that doesn't have to rely on multiple consecutive hits to score runs?

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Speaking of power, 8 of the 9 runs scored against the Astros on Tuesday came on home runs. And Weds Will Brennan homered off Verlander for one run and the other scored on a Kwan triple. The winning run in the 10th was on a Kwan double. We've seen a lot of power in the two games in Houston.

By the way, Kwan's three hits consisted of a line drive to center, a line drive into the right field corner, and a line drive into the left field corner. Talk about using the entire field! That's why I think he has a shot at being the batting champion this year, or at least finishing well over .300. His expected BA at the moment is .334.

 

[CDAV45]

The Orioles just reinstated Bradish and designated our old friend Yohan Ramirez. Is he worth another look?

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

You'll not find success in the postseason relying on 3 consecutive singles.

I agree that the SP is the bigger problem right now because I believe the power is already in the system. When and if it gets to the surface is the question for me. Are they going to prioritize punch and judy hitters or try to assemble a more potent lineup that doesn't have to rely on multiple consecutive hits to score runs?

Those "punch and judy" hitters are second in the A.L. in runs per game with everybody except Josh, Kwan, and Fry (in limited action) hitting below expectation.

Our starting center fielder is hitting .198. Our shortstop is hitting .214. Between the two of them they have three home runs. Our right fielders are hitting a combined .204. Bo is hitting .186 and Jose is at .244/.705.

There's a ton of potential for a lot more runs without more home runs. These guys just need to start hitting like they're capable (at least I think Freeman is capable of hitting at least .242/.661 like he did last year).

If Bo Naylor can get back to where he finished last year (.237/.809) and Jose gets back to last year's .282/.831 (a down year for him), this offense would be even more productive than it is now, with only the Orioles averaging more runs per game among A.L. teams.

 

[sportscoach]

I've talked about the risk of calling Manzardo up too early before.

And with no one really running away with the ROTY in the AL right now, save for maybe Cowser, the risk is still there.

In my mind there were only 2 options for him in 2024 making his MLB debut. He either makes the team out of ST, or he is up in mid to late June where he has almost no chance finishing top 2 in the ROTY vote like Bo last year.

He will probably be called up this season, but when he still will be rookie eligible for 25...