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2024 Guardians Regular Season Thread

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The Athletic has some trade proposals, one of which involves the Guardians. I don't think the O's would go for this but I'd love to do it, especially after the Delauter injury to a foot that has already been operated on twice.

3. Guardians trade right-handed relievers Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith to Orioles for RF Heston Kjerstad

The Guardians need to upgrade right field for the short- and long-term and acquiring Kjerstad, the second overall pick in the 2020 draft, would accomplish both aims. Kjerstad, 25, slashed .349/.431/.744 at Triple A this season with 10 home runs and 30 RBIs and has gone 2-for-9 since being promoted to the majors two weeks ago. However, the Orioles’ outfield is overcrowded with right fielder Anthony Santander, center fielder Cedric Mullins and left fielders Colton Cowser and Austin Hays, along with Kyle Stowers and Coby Mayo, who are major-league-ready but at Triple A. Kjerstad is talented but could be expendable. (He ranked 20th on my top 50 prospects list last August.)

In this trade, the Orioles would acquire two solid, controllable relievers to help fortify their bullpen. Gaddis, 26, has posted a 2.87 ERA in 17 appearances for Cleveland this season with 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.7 walks per nine. Smith, 24, has logged a 2.30 ERA and 1.43 FIP over 16 appearances this year, his first in the big leagues, with 13.8 strikeouts per nine (24 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings). The Guardians could afford to deal both righties because they have a deep bullpen with closer Emmanuel Clase and set-up men such as Tim Herrin, Scott Barlow and Nick Sandlin, along with relievers working their way back from injuries and more good arms in the minors who are ready for promotions.

He's got a point that with Morgan and Hentges ready to return and Karinchak down the road we could afford to give up Gaddis and Smith for a 25-year-old right fielder who hit .349 at AAA last year. But Gaddis and Smith are unproven - this is Gaddis' first year as a reliever and Smith is a rookie. I get that both teams would be trading from positions of strength, but I can't see Baltimore doing this deal.
 
Looks like they're ready to start the Manzo era service clock be damned. Still would have liked to see J-Rod for a month and then Manzo but so be it.
 
thestatman said:
If Kwan is back in 4 weeks, I'll be very happy.
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Me too - I think this might be somewhat optimistic.

Speaking of hamstrings, Joey Cantillo should be about 50% (maybe more) into his recovery time. If Kwan's is an acute strain with a 4-week recovery time Cantillo must have really wrecked his, with an 8-10 week recovery time.
 
Wham with the Right Hand said:
The Athletic has some trade proposals, one of which involves the Guardians. I don't think the O's would go for this but I'd love to do it, especially after the Delauter injury to a foot that has already been operated on twice.

3. Guardians trade right-handed relievers Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith to Orioles for RF Heston Kjerstad

The Guardians need to upgrade right field for the short- and long-term and acquiring Kjerstad, the second overall pick in the 2020 draft, would accomplish both aims. Kjerstad, 25, slashed .349/.431/.744 at Triple A this season with 10 home runs and 30 RBIs and has gone 2-for-9 since being promoted to the majors two weeks ago. However, the Orioles’ outfield is overcrowded with right fielder Anthony Santander, center fielder Cedric Mullins and left fielders Colton Cowser and Austin Hays, along with Kyle Stowers and Coby Mayo, who are major-league-ready but at Triple A. Kjerstad is talented but could be expendable. (He ranked 20th on my top 50 prospects list last August.)

In this trade, the Orioles would acquire two solid, controllable relievers to help fortify their bullpen. Gaddis, 26, has posted a 2.87 ERA in 17 appearances for Cleveland this season with 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.7 walks per nine. Smith, 24, has logged a 2.30 ERA and 1.43 FIP over 16 appearances this year, his first in the big leagues, with 13.8 strikeouts per nine (24 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings). The Guardians could afford to deal both righties because they have a deep bullpen with closer Emmanuel Clase and set-up men such as Tim Herrin, Scott Barlow and Nick Sandlin, along with relievers working their way back from injuries and more good arms in the minors who are ready for promotions.

He's got a point that with Morgan and Hentges ready to return and Karinchak down the road we could afford to give up Gaddis and Smith for a 25-year-old right fielder who hit .349 at AAA last year. But Gaddis and Smith are unproven - this is Gaddis' first year as a reliever and Smith is a rookie. I get that both teams would be trading from positions of strength, but I can't see Baltimore doing this deal.
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I will drive Gaddis + Smith to the airport and offer free wifi if it means landing Kjerstad

Orioles would be insane to do this.
 
BimboColesHair said:
When a guy has had swing and miss concerns every step of the way in the minors and is all of a sudden seeing a 7% drop in his K rate and a 7% drop in his swinging strike rate with contact rates up all across the board, I would say that is progress. For him to be in the single digit swinging strike % after his entire minor league career leading up to this point where he has consistently been in the high teens, that is a bigger deal than a .053 difference in OPS.

What he is doing so far this year in AAA is so much more sustainable than what he was doing in AAA last year. And teams tell you how they believe in players with their actions. If we didn't believe in JRod he wouldn't be occupying a 40-man spot.
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Whoa, it's getting very confusing in here.

In the Rocchio discussion I pointed out that he has made a ton of progress since last year based on:

Walk% up from 4.7% last year to 11.4% this year
Strikeout percentage declined from 31.4% to 18.1%
Out-of-zone swing percentage down from 44% last year to 31%
Expected slugging percentage up from .237 to .327.
xBA from .184 to .233.
Hard hit percentage from 16.4% to 26.0%.
Launch angle has improved from 1.5 to 4.9 degrees
Ground ball percentage down from 60% to 48%
Line drive percentage jumped from 18% to 24%.
wRC+ up from 65 to 89

I referred to all this as "steady improvements across the board". The response I got was:

Your “steady improvements across the board” aren’t that, not right now….His OPS has gone from .600 to .628. That is an incremental improvement we are globbing a lot of hope onto.

And improved K and BB percentages and contact rates are great, but contact rates and K and BB rates don’t dictate success in the MLB.

OK, I got it, don't worry about more contact, harder contact, more line drives, fewer ground balls, less chasing of bad pitches, all that stuff. OPS is where it's at and if the improvement there is "incremental", then no reason to get excited, especially about better K rates and BB rates, which don't dictate success.

But when the discussion turns to Rodriguez and I pointed out that his all-important OPS is actually down from last year playing at the same level, now OPS isn't important; it's all about higher contact rates.

....a 7% drop in his K rate and a 7% drop in his swinging strike rate with contact rates up all across the board, I would say that is progress.

Wait, what? This is sounding like a "heads I win, tails you lose" situation. What happened to the almighty OPS that tells us Rocchio still sucks despite ten other metrics improving? At least Rocchio's OPS is going up (while the league average is lower). JRod's is going down but we're supposed to be encouraged about an "incremental" 7% drop in swinging strike rate? By the way, Rocchio's swinging strike rate dropped from 16.9% to 10.4% since last year, a 6.5% drop.

I'm not arguing that either of these guys will turn out to be every day players. I doubt either will. But how about some consistency here? Sure seems like cherry picking to me.
 
Wham with the Right Hand said:
Whoa, it's getting very confusing in here.

In the Rocchio discussion I pointed out that he has made a ton of progress since last year based on:

Walk% up from 4.7% last year to 11.4% this year
Strikeout percentage declined from 31.4% to 18.1%
Out-of-zone swing percentage down from 44% last year to 31%
Expected slugging percentage up from .237 to .327.
xBA from .184 to .233.
Hard hit percentage from 16.4% to 26.0%.
Launch angle has improved from 1.5 to 4.9 degrees
Ground ball percentage dow from 60% to 48%
Line drive percentage jumped from 18% to 24%.
wRC+ up from 65 to 89

I referred to all this as "steady improvements across the board". The response I got was:

Your “steady improvements across the board” aren’t that, not right now….His OPS has gone from .600 to .628. That is an incremental improvement we are globbing a lot of hope onto.

And improved K and BB percentages and contact rates are great, but contact rates and K and BB rates don’t dictate success in the MLB.

OK, I got it, don't worry about more contact, harder contact, more line drives, fewer ground balls, less chasing of bad pitches, all that stuff. OPS is where it's at and if the improvement there is "incremental", then no reason to get excited, especially about better K rates and BB rates.

But when the discussion turns to Rodriguez and I pointed out that his all-important OPS is actually down from last year playing at the same level, now OPS isn't important; it's all about higher contact rates.

....a 7% drop in his K rate and a 7% drop in his swinging strike rate with contact rates up all across the board, I would say that is progress.

Wait, what? This is sounding like a "heads I win, tails you lose" situation. What happened to the almighty OPS that tells us Rocchio still sucks despite ten other metrics improving? At least Rocchio's OPS is going up. JRod's is going down but we're supposed to be encouraged about an "incremental" 7% drop in swinging strike rate? By the way, Rocchio's swinging strike rate dropped from 16.9% to 10.4% since last year, a 6.5% drop.

I'm not arguing that either of these guys will turn out to be every day players. I doubt either will. But how about some consistency here? Sure seems like cherry picking to me.
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One guy is in the MLB.

One is in the minors.

There is a difference here that I feel like I don’t have to explain…
 
BimboColesHair said:
One guy is in the MLB.

One is in the minors.

There is a difference here that I feel like I don’t have to explain…
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Well, as a Guardian fan I hope that JRod's lower strikeout rate and "contact rates up all across the board" eventually translate to an OPS that's as high as last year when those contact rates were lower. Hey, you don't suppose he's cut down his swing to make more contact, do you? That would explain the higher contact rates and lower OPS.
 
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