2024 Guardians Regular Season Thread

[Otsego Mar]

198 PA for Rocchio so far... will be interesting to see how he fares post-200.

IMO he's trending into being an Amed-ish SS in not much time. The Amed that was a little below league average at defense but with a contact bat. Amed was stronger, Rocchio has a better approach.

The question is, would we be happy with the 95 wRC+, or would we demand more of him.

Arias - a little more glove, a little less bat probably.

Either way, don't see a hell of a lot of difference between them... Do you take your 1.5 WAR and call it a day or do you say that's not enough?

I see it the exact opposite.

Arias - a little better bat (power), a little less glove. Arias is less of a SS to me and more of a 3B type.

We'll see how all this plays out the rest of season. I don't see either going away this year.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I never said I was "excited" or trying to get excited about Rocchio. I just noted that all of his batting metrics are significantly higher than last year so he appears to be moving in the right direction and maybe we should see if he can keep it up.

Now we can debate whether increasing your wRC+ from 65 to 89 is significant or "incremental", or whether increasing your walk percentage from 4% to 11% is significant or insignificant. Or whether any of it even matters or has any relevance to future performance.

I happen to believe that athlete's performance curve goes up rather steeply at first, starts tapering off, plateaus, and then declines gradually with age. I'm just saying it looks to me like Rocchio is on the upside of his curve, which is where you would expect him to be at 23.

It's been pointed out that he was really bad last year so even a modest improvement still makes him a really bad player. Well, he should not have been in the majors last year. He was 22 and had a wRC+ of 101 at Columbus. He wasn't ready. He didn't earn a promotion. But Bieber and McKenzie got hurt, we fell out of contention, and decided to trade Amed since we weren't going to the post-season. We needed a warm body to play shortstop for the rest of the year. Might as well take a look at the next candidate.

Yeah, he was bad last year in Cleveland; his expected BA was .164 but he got a lot of lucky bloops and infield hits. Now he's at .230. Can he keep going? I don't know. He's just 23 but when I watch him hit his bat looks slow. Statcast says he's put 131 balls in play since coming up and only 3 of them have been barrelled. He can't square pitches up. His average exit velo is under 87. Well, Kwan is at 84.4 this year - his best season so far.

The difference is Kwan has a line drive percentage of 31% whereas Rocchio is at 23%. If he can get that LD% up to where Kwan is he has a chance to have a decent OBP. His hard hit percentage is 25% to Kwan's 18%. Of course Kwan is 3.3 years older.

Can he become another Kwan? He better at least get close because he has no power. Kwan's chasing 24% of out-of-zone pitches while Rocchio is at 30%, so he needs to get better at that. His launch angle is just 5.6 versus 11 degress for Kwan so Rocchio needs to work on that, too.

I'm not excited about him, but I think he's made significant improvement since last year, or at least the numbers say so. And his OPS was artificially high last year because his BABIP was a ridiculous .364. His OPS just looks marginally better because it was too high last year.

To be honest I just went them to put Angel Martinez at short and have him blast extra base hits all over the park like he was doing this spring. When is he gonna be ready?

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Anybody know anything about Yordys Valdez? He's a 22-year-old switch-hitting shortstop, former 2nd round pick in 2019 out of high school in Florida, now hitting .333 with a .408 OBP at Akron. Is he a prospect? Fangraphs doesn't have him in our top 40.

 

[Tondo]

Anybody know anything about Yordys Valdez? He's a 22-year-old switch-hitting shortstop, former 2nd round pick in 2019 out of high school in Florida, now hitting .333 with a .408 OBP at Akron. Is he a prospect? Fangraphs doesn't have him in our top 40.

Supposedly good glove, but his numbers this year are BABIP inflated (525). He'll come back to earth.

I've been most impressed by Huff and Cairo in Akron. And I still believe in Bracho's bat to resurge. He's cutting down on his swing and miss and still pull/lifts the ball a lot. He'll bust out this summer and force his way to Columbus.

 

[petes999]

Plus i think that at least Valera will be out of options next year. I wasn't being sarcastic. I literally fret about these things.

Sorry about that ... Yet, Valera could be eligible for a 4th year. Rule is per mlb.com...

"Players typically have three option years, but those who have accrued less than five full seasons (including both the Major and Minors) are eligible for a fourth if their three options have been exhausted already. For the purposes of this rule, spending at least 90 days on an active Major League or Minor League roster during a given season counts as one full season."

So for 2024 - he could be eligible for 90+ days if he remains healthy
2023 - July 20 to Sept 23? (11+31+23 days = 65) + June 17 - July 7 (20 days) + May 11 - May 20 (9 days) - So 100 days or so
2022 - Healthy
2021 - April 29 - May 31 (34 days) + June 8 - Sept 24 (100+) - Over 100 days
2020 - No Season - COVID
2019 - June 10th - Sept 2 ( = 21 + 31 + 31 + 2 = 85 days ???) - MV
2018 - June 18 - June 25th (less than 100 days) - AZL

So right now, only 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024(?) appear to be over the 90 days ... (4 seasons, not 5 needed ....) at least by my quick calculation and limited knowledge of the rules. But, with COVID, a lot of guys are eligible due to the short AZL/MV seasons (is this the intent - injured years he had 90+ days other than his first year 2018)

And, even if he wasn't out of options, there could be room on the 26 man roster without Laureano and Straw (insert him for Laureano now that DeLauter is out of the mix). Key will be what they do with Manzardo when Kwan comes back. Then there is also Florial. Yet, note his leadoff role now even with his horrible stats (do they have some faith???).

 

[BimboColesHair]

I see it the exact opposite.

Arias - a little better bat (power), a little less glove. Arias is less of a SS to me and more of a 3B type.

We'll see how all this plays out the rest of season. I don't see either going away this year.

And the numbers would disagree with you.

And the opinions of pretty much every scout in baseball.

Then again, you’ve never been one for numbers or the opinions of others

 

[CBBI]

I never said I was "excited" or trying to get excited about Rocchio. I just noted that all of his batting metrics are significantly higher than last year so he appears to be moving in the right direction and maybe we should see if he can keep it up.

Now we can debate whether increasing your wRC+ from 65 to 89 is significant or "incremental", or whether increasing your walk percentage from 4% to 11% is significant or insignificant. Or whether any of it even matters or has any relevance to future performance.

I happen to believe that athlete's performance curve goes up rather steeply at first, starts tapering off, plateaus, and then declines gradually with age. I'm just saying it looks to me like Rocchio is on the upside of his curve, which is where you would expect him to be at 23.

It's been pointed out that he was really bad last year so even a modest improvement still makes him a really bad player. Well, he should not have been in the majors last year. He was 22 and had a wRC+ of 101 at Columbus. He wasn't ready. He didn't earn a promotion. But Bieber and McKenzie got hurt, we fell out of contention, and decided to trade Amed since we weren't going to the post-season. We needed a warm body to play shortstop for the rest of the year. Might as well take a look at the next candidate.

Yeah, he was bad last year in Cleveland; his expected BA was .164 but he got a lot of lucky bloops and infield hits. Now he's at .230. Can he keep going? I don't know. He's just 23 but when I watch him hit his bat looks slow. Statcast says he's put 131 balls in play since coming up and only 3 of them have been barrelled. He can't square pitches up. His average exit velo is under 87. Well, Kwan is at 84.4 this year - his best season so far.

The difference is Kwan has a line drive percentage of 31% whereas Rocchio is at 23%. If he can get that LD% up to where Kwan is he has a chance to have a decent OBP. His hard hit percentage is 25% to Kwan's 18%. Of course Kwan is 3.3 years older.

Can he become another Kwan? He better at least get close because he has no power. Kwan's chasing 24% of out-of-zone pitches while Rocchio is at 30%, so he needs to get better at that. His launch angle is just 5.6 versus 11 degress for Kwan so Rocchio needs to work on that, too.

I'm not excited about him, but I think he's made significant improvement since last year, or at least the numbers say so. And his OPS was artificially high last year because his BABIP was a ridiculous .364. His OPS just looks marginally better because it was too high last year.

To be honest I just went them to put Angel Martinez at short and have him blast extra base hits all over the park like he was doing this spring. When is he gonna be ready?

If you take an exam and you score a 30 out of 100 that’s an F.

If you come back later and take the same exam again and you score a 50 out of 100, yeah you did a lot better than the first time, but that’s still an F.

And going from a 30 to a 50 is not necessarily an indication that you’re ready to make a 70 the third time either.

 

[CDAV45]

I jest, of course. I don't think you have been telling me much in this regard, as I have no issue with him being up here (OK maybe his Stash), but I don't really expect him to a big producer at the outset. Like a number of our young guys, we need to show some patience and give them some room to run....err, hit.

I still think we win this division even while letting some of these guys develop. Still going to come down to the arms...

Fully agree!

 

[PIP]

We are back on the road, boys!!!

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Martinez is essentially out this season for the bigs more than likely...

Brito hasn't hit at AAA... Tena hasn't been great either...

It's between Arias and Rocchio likely all season at this point... Schneeman can play SS but he's not better at SS...

I think they play it out this year with Arias and Rocchio with possibly a look at Schneeman after the All Star break if his hitting continues at AAA. I just dont think that they commit to either of them for 2025 if they continue to hit close to the current level.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

If you take an exam and you score a 30 out of 100 that’s an F.

If you come back later and take the same exam again and you score a 50 out of 100, yeah you did a lot better than the first time, but that’s still an F.

And going from a 30 to a 50 is not necessarily an indication that you’re ready to make a 70 the third time either.

But it's an indication you are capable of getting better and shouldn't drop the class just yet.

Also, the reason Rocchio got a 30 last year was because he was brought up to the majors before he was ready due to the Rosario trade. He hit .280/.788 in 116 games in Columbus last year, which is good for a 22-year-old in AAA, especially a middle infielder, but I don't think it earns him a starting job in the bigs. If he had stayed in Columbus the entire year and finished around .285/.800 people might not view last season as a Rocchio failure.

It's like this Tugboat Wilkinson kid who's striking out 70% of the hitters at low A. Is he the organization's new #1 prospect or just a finished college pitcher that was put at a level too low for his abilities? Success or failure is relative - you have to consider age and level. I tend to look at trends and whether players are progressing up the learning curve, but that's just me.

 

[CBBI]

But it's an indication you are capable of getting better and shouldn't drop the class just yet.

Also, the reason Rocchio got a 30 last year was because he was brought up to the majors before he was ready due to the Rosario trade. He hit .280/.788 in 116 games in Columbus last year, which is good for a 22-year-old in AAA, especially a middle infielder, but I don't think it earns him a starting job in the bigs. If he had stayed in Columbus the entire year and finished around .285/.800 people might not view last season as a Rocchio failure.

It's like this Tugboat Wilkinson kid who's striking out 70% of the hitters at low A. Is he the organization's new #1 prospect or just a finished college pitcher that was put at a level too low for his abilities? Success or failure is relative - you have to consider age and level. I tend to look at trends and whether players are progressing up the learning curve, but that's just me.

Again... not necessarily.

It could also be a case that you just fundamentally lack the ability to understand the material and you simply guessed more answers right the 2nd time you took the test.

 

[Alabuckeye]

Anyone with me? Kyle Manzardo is a bust. 3ab, 3k…..I know, small sample size….but who has started out a career with the negative hat trick and gone on to be effective? No one!




/s

 

[smalls1129]

Anyone with me? Kyle Manzardo is a bust. 3ab, 3k…..I know, small sample size….but who has started out a career with the negative hat trick and gone on to be effective? No one!




/s

I don't know about debut but Reggie Jackson did it 141 times and Mike Schmidt did it 88 times so it's not the end all be all lol.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Again... not necessarily.

It could also be a case that you just fundamentally lack the ability to understand the material and you simply guessed more answers right the 2nd time you took the test.

Which is why in baseball we look at things that don't involve luck or guessing - like hard hit percentage, line drive percentage, barrel percentage, chase rate on pitches outside the zone - anything that indicates the player is making better swing decisions, hitting more balls hard, and getting the ball in the air where it can do more damage.

If I see all that moving in the right direction for a 23-year-old, whether he happens to be in the majors or the minors, than I think he has a chance.

That being said, it's easier to be optimistic about a guy like Arias who can hit a line drive over the center field wall than a soft bat guy like Rocchio whose best possible outcome is a double down the line.

Arias is 3-for-24 with 9 strikeouts so he's been floundering lately. He has one walk in 71 at-bats this year. Hope he turns it around soon because I'm seeing no progress out of him. His chase percentage is actually up from 44% last year to 49% this year. I don't know if anybody can be a successful major league hitter when you think half the balls you see are strikes. (I'm assuming he doesn't swing at pitches outside the zone on purpose).