2024 NBA Draft

[adam81king]

My draft model is really so-so on him. Says he's a bust candidate.

I'll post some data later this week but initial glance.........a pick in the late 20's is going to be REALLLLLLLY valuable.

The crop of international players is pushing a pocket of about 8 guys in to the 21-29 range that really shouldn't be there.

And that is excluding the combine heroes that will bump some of these ultra productive players down.

The guys in this range that my draft model especially loves.....

SF - Dillon Jones - He's older.....he doesn't seem real athletic......but even with an age and conference penalty......my draft model likes him like it likes few small forward prospects. If he tested as even an average athlete, all his advance stats are just really impactful.


SG - Kevin McCullar.....I get it, he's older......just a lot to like and I think a roster fit. Will have to see what happens with his knee.


PG - Tyler Kolek......he's Brandon Podi 2.0......he's not what you expect to look at.......but his data is OFF THE CHARTS.


PG - Devin Carter

Tyler Kolek and Sam Merrill in the backcourt together would get all the maidens frocks in a bunch. #Rumspringa!

 

[I'mWithDan]

Jones gives me Georges Niang vibes..

0.75 speed Jae Crowder

 

[Adam]

Holmes looks like the kind of player that has extra value for us if his passing is legit and he is anywhere near his 6'10 listed height. If he is more playable than brobley he also creates the opportunity to move wade down to the 3 more often.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Holmes looks like the kind of player that has extra value for us if his passing is legit and he is anywhere near his 6'10 listed height. If he is more playable than brobley he also creates the opportunity to move wade down to the 3 more often.

He's my #1 guy at this point in our draft range......just looking at player progression and team need.

I realize we need a 3 but there's a little less clarity there given our draft slot. I think if we could wiggle up to 17-19 there are some interesting guys who could fall but I think the 3's that will be there in the mid 20's are far more lotto ticket guys. Ryan Dunn is the one exception but I have seen him in the lottery in recent mocks so that feels like a bit of a pipe dream given his skillset.

Here's Holmes 3 year track:

Edit: Ignore that I forgot to update draft year......top to bottom order......Jr, So, Fr.

He's a low foul player who produces hustle stats......already really good relative to the field but a defensive player that manages to impact that end but stay on the floor. Getting an extra foul and some additional coaching, he could be a really, really good NBA defender.

His progression scoring is SUUUUUUUUUUUUPER exciting to me. Look at his uptick in FGA per 100 and then look at his efficiency metrics (PPFGA, FTA per FGA and 2PFGA).......his volume has increased by 50% and he's scoring more efficiently, drawing fouls at a higher rate, shooting 3's at a higher rate.......he's become such a complete offensive player.

Unfortunately think he will be a late riser. Just too much to like about him IMO. But fingers crossed.

Just because I love getting people thinking a little differently......one guy that also stands out on the wing is a player that I'm sure few will have on their radar. But Payton Sandfort is really starting to sneak in at the SF position......as someone who should be getting a real serious look from a contending team. More of a role playing profile but he has the mix of contributing skills you like to see on the wing (shooting gravity, rebounding and team passing).......seems like a good swing in the mid second.

 

[CBBI]

He's my #1 guy at this point in our draft range......just looking at player progression and team need.

I realize we need a 3 but there's a little less clarity there given our draft slot. I think if we could wiggle up to 17-19 there are some interesting guys who could fall but I think the 3's that will be there in the mid 20's are far more lotto ticket guys. Ryan Dunn is the one exception but I have seen him in the lottery in recent mocks so that feels like a bit of a pipe dream given his skillset.

Here's Holmes 3 year track:

Edit: Ignore that I forgot to update draft year......top to bottom order......Jr, So, Fr.

He's a low foul player who produces hustle stats......already really good relative to the field but a defensive player that manages to impact that end but stay on the floor. Getting an extra foul and some additional coaching, he could be a really, really good NBA defender.

His progression scoring is SUUUUUUUUUUUUPER exciting to me. Look at his uptick in FGA per 100 and then look at his efficiency metrics (PPFGA, FTA per FGA and 2PFGA).......his volume has increased by 50% and he's scoring more efficiently, drawing fouls at a higher rate, shooting 3's at a higher rate.......he's become such a complete offensive player.

Unfortunately think he will be a late riser. Just too much to like about him IMO. But fingers crossed.

Just because I love getting people thinking a little differently......one guy that also stands out on the wing is a player that I'm sure few will have on their radar. But Payton Sandfort is really starting to sneak in at the SF position......as someone who should be getting a real serious look from a contending team. More of a role playing profile but he has the mix of contributing skills you like to see on the wing (shooting gravity, rebounding and team passing).......seems like a good swing in the mid second.

WE NEED THE CHART. GIVE US THE CHART!

 

[I'mWithDan]

WE NEED THE CHART. GIVE US THE CHART!

A good amount changes as high leverage games (late season, conference tourney, postseason) really shift per possession numbers but an initial smoke test certainly gets to what I was talking about as to the value of late 1sts this year. As I've said in the past, anyone above median in PDIFF (0.80 or top half of all draft eligible players in the possession era) has an exponentially higher chance to succeed.....and just year over year, a vast, vast majority of any drafts best players come from this pool (regardless of where they are taken).

There are 25 guys in that consensus-ish top 50 picks that currently hit the median or better mark. That is.......a lot. If an entire draft pool of 100 players had that it would be a great draft.....but seeing 25 of the top 50.....I'd be scrambling to try to pick off another selection in the top 40 or so.

The biggest surprise after I mentioned him early season......Cody Williams has taken an absolute nose dive. Given the success of this model it is pretty scary for whoever drafts him, just given that he seems to be a lock to go in in the top 6-8. Will be interesting to watch.

Overall.......extremely guard heavy draft though in that high success tier. So having a pick in the 40-45 range would be an ideal way to nab a reserve / developmental guard type with upside.

The model has been especially hot on big men recently.......so Clingan and Edey just kind of can't be ignored......or I guess shouldn't be. They are both producing at an elite level.

The top 20-ish guys my model currently doesn't like as much as some of the consensus I have seen:

Cody Williams
Isaiah Collier
Stephon Castle
Oso Ighodaro
Yves Missi
Justin Edwards

These are all the college guys at initial glance......I'll do an update with G-league and Euro data in a few weeks.....but wanted to post this to keep tabs on CBB down the stretch.

 

[cliffdawg]

Edwards was sensational today

If he keeps playing like this he won’t last until the Cavs pick

I know it’s only one game highlights but this kid has my attention for our pick…..

 

[Bob_The_Cat]

Highly unlikely to be around for our current pick and we obviously have the need on the wing, but Filipowski is a guy I’d consider making a move for. If the Cavs are going to try to make Allen and Mobley work long-term, turning up a backup big man that can shoot the ball and rebound is pretty imperative. I’d like the Filipowski option as it would let the Cavs keep Mobley at PF more.

Again, likely out of the Cavs range and would require a move up, but could be worth considering if there aren’t any wings we’re in love with. That backup big spot might be the second biggest roster hole to fill this offseason.

 

[Ohioplayer00]

Is there a consensus #1 coming out of college this….ie: a Wemby, Edwards, LBJ etc

 

[ajz20]

Is there a consensus #1 coming out of college this….ie: a Wemby, Edwards, LBJ etc

No not at all.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Some more deep diving trying to get 50-100 prospects loaded.

Two guys stand out in that first pool of players:

Alex Karaban


Baylor Scheierman


Scheierman is pretty interesting.......he has great data and he just moves really well. He doesn't have plus vertical athleticism, from what I see but laterally and with the ball, he's a natural looking athlete.

 

[DeeThree]

Is there a rotation player to be had at 23-30?

 

[Dr No]

Some more deep diving trying to get 50-100 prospects loaded.

Two guys stand out in that first pool of players:

Alex Karaban


Baylor Scheierman


Scheierman is pretty interesting.......he has great data and he just moves really well. He doesn't have plus vertical athleticism, from what I see but laterally and with the ball, he's a natural looking athlete.

How tall is scheierman? He looks like a stronger, slower, Windler.

 

[Adam]

How tall is scheierman? He looks like a stronger, slower, Windler.

Winder is my end of the first round Paul pierce. I see everyone as variations on his game

 

[Dr No]

Winder is my end of the first round Paul pierce. I see everyone as variations on his game

the lefty 3 point shot did it for me