Boise State offense vs. Virginia Tech defense
• If QB Kellen Moore executes at his highest level he will put Boise State in a great position to win this game. Virginia Tech likes to bring heat from different directions and force the quarterback to make quick decisions with defenders in his face, but Moore has the poise, football intelligence and confidence to counter this aggressive attack. Also working in the Broncos' favor is the experience Moore has working with his passing game targets. It's obvious when studying Moore's receivers, backs and tight ends that they take a great deal of pride in adjusting their routes and finding pockets in the coverage.
• When Boise State faces teams with bigger athletes, the Broncos tend to implement a lot more misdirection than normal. They also will frequently run away from the strength of the formation, which makes the lives of their offensive linemen a little easier. It will be interesting to see if these trends hold true versus a Hokies team that has some bigger athletes -- and certainly more depth -- than the Broncos but is not nearly as overwhelming physically as some of the other "big-boy" programs Boise has faced the past few seasons. Our guess is that Boise will look to counter Virginia Tech's aggressive approach with draws and traps on the ground and screens through the air. One or two big-hitters early on could damage the psyche of a Virginia Tech defense that replaces six starters from last year's smothering group.
• If LB Barquell Rivers (quadriceps) cannot play it will be a major blow for the Virginia Tech defense. Rivers is by far the unit's best returning starter and is all over the field every time we study this group on tape. Rivers takes good angles, knows how to take on blocks and is a sound open-field tackler. There's a lot of hype surrounding freshman Bruce Taylor and we're told he's a legitimate budding star. However, Rivers' experience, motor and leadership will be missed if he's not on the field versus Moore and his mates.
Key individual matchup
Boise State WR Titus Young vs. Virginia Tech CB Rashad Carmichael
Young is more quick than fast and does his best work when isolated on the perimeter. He uses his quick feet to slip press coverage and gain separation out of his breaks. Offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin also takes advantage of Young's open-field running ability by putting him in motion and running "Jet" sweeps, something the Hokies surely are prepared for. Carmichael is a similar athlete with quick feet and fluid hips, but he will occasionally struggle versus bigger wide receivers who muscle him around. At 5-foot-10 and 176 pounds Young does not fit that description, so the edge should go to Carmichael in this one-on-one matchup. If he holds up when isolated on Young it will make a big difference for the blitz-happy Hokies.
Virginia Tech offense vs. Boise State defense
• The Hokies typically feed off undisciplined defensive units with a mix of the option game and QB Tyrod Taylor scrambling for big chunks of yards on designed pass plays. Boise State's defense is the opposite of undisciplined, though. It shut down the two most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks it faced last year, holding Oregon's Jeremiah Masoli and Nevada's Colin Kaepernick to an average of two yards on 23 combined carries. With 10 of 11 starters back on defense for the Broncos, it's reasonable to think Taylor will be kept in check on the ground.
• For all the Broncos' strengths defensively they are susceptible to a strong interior run game. The Fresno State game from a year ago serves as a blueprint on how to attack this group. Eventual first-round RB Ryan Mathews was an exceptional talent but the dominance that allowed him to pileup 234 yards on just 19 carries started in the trenches. Virginia Tech also has a size advantage up front and talent at running back, starting with Ryan Williams and Darren Evans.
The Hokies' best bet is to line up in many two-back and/or two-tight end sets and pound away at the interior of Boise State's defense. The Broncos will likely play a lot of three-man fronts that help them pack it in versus the run, with three defensive linemen squeezed from the inside shoulder of one offensive tackle to the other. This also upgrades their athleticism along the front seven by trading a defensive end for a linebacker. Regardless, Virginia Tech is simply bigger and stronger in the trenches and should exploit this mismatch with 35-plus carries for the 1-2 punch of Williams and Evans.
• ESPN's research staff uncovered an interesting stat regarding Virginia Tech's vertical passing game: "Taylor completed 24 passes in 34 attempts of 20-plus yards when targeting (wide receiver's Jarrett) Boykin or (Danny) Coale in 2009." This is a case of the stats and the film lining up, because based on our film study Taylor is the rare quarterback who seems more comfortable throwing the deep ball than throwing short-to-intermediate routes. The Hokies do not throw the ball often (2.5-to-1 run-to-pass ratio when the offense is humming), but when they do it's primarily off play-action, which leads to a lot of one-on-one coverage and strained zone coverage.
Virginia Tech does not need to sustain drives with an efficient aerial attack. That's the job of the run game. What it does need, however, is for Taylor and his wideouts to connect on at least a couple of the handful of vertical shots (usually 5-7 per game) it takes when the Broncos have eight defenders in the box. The Hokies will miss WR Xavier Boyce (ankle) but Taylor still has his top two vertical threats to work with in Boykin and Coale, and they'll be looking to exploit a secondary playing in its first contest during the post-Kyle Wilson era.
Scouts' Edge
Boise State has the more experienced squad and it's hard to ignore the team's success under coach Chris Peterson. The Broncos have won 26 of their last 27 games, including two victories over Oregon and a Fiesta Bowl win over undefeated TCU.
Still, there are three reasons to believe Virginia Tech will come out on top in a somewhat low-scoring affair. The first is the distinct advantage the Hokies own in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The second is the backfield tandem of Williams and Evans, which should wear down the Broncos' disciplined but smallish defensive front. The third is the location of FedEX Field, which sits just 280 miles from Blacksburg, Va. That's 2,100 miles closer than Boise, Idaho.
Prediction: Hokies 23, Broncos 20
