5-man units and the Rubio impact

[macbdog]

For me, Rubio's injury will go down as one of those big 'What Ifs', like Chones during the Miracle, Love and Kyrie in '15, Salazar/Carrasco in '16, etc. Rubio is a very unique player, and guys w his offensive skills are just few and far between, and frankly, never should have been available; imo Altman's best move. This was almost a perfect situation, too: a young PG as starter that took the major role, a former All Star and teammate in Love that compliments him almost perfectly, and enough shooting for him to feed. And Rubio still had enough in the tank to be Superman when this club needed that. I really don't see him coming back at the same level, so Im not as keen on resigning him as others are; but it's a shame, because he was, in many ways, the right guy at the right time for the right role. They aren't going to find anyone who fits that bill, either. But man, had he stayed healthy... This club is not only still playing, but would have been every teams nightmare.

 

[DingleDong]

Also want to reiterate our defense was NOT the problem in these last few games (outside of the 1st quarter against Brooklyn). The 3 big lineup still causes fits for other teams. It’s the offense that needs work.

This right here.

Even in the Atlanta game Cavs were able to defend pretty well in the start when we were playing normal starting unit. Absolutely no idea what happened with the rotations there. JBB kept subbing starters for starters and letting people rest for couple minutes and then subbing them back in. In the first half starting unit played together around 12min but Markkanen played total of 15:46, Mobley 17:45, Allen 18:33, Levert 19:57 and Garland 20:20. Considering we ended the half in 10 point lead, it just shows that JBB was afraid of losing the lead so much that he just kept subbing the same guys in. If you look at the starter minutes it just yells huge load management failure since most of the starters played most of their minutes in the first half, so they go little more tired in the second half.

 

[cliffdawg]

I’m not going lie I appreciate everything Rubio did for us, but that injury being his second ACL plus his age, I don’t want nothing to do with him……Now if he wants to come in at the Veterans minimum and Rehab for 2/3 of the season that will get my attention, but you know he will be looking for mid level exceptions…….

 

[Dunkqvist]

One suggestion for backup point guard next year would be D.J. Augustin, who is a free agent. He'll be 35 in November but this year he averaged 17.8 minutes for the Lakers and shot 45.3% overall and 42.6% on 3's for an effective field goal percentage of 62.2%.

How about Tyus Jones? He is normally a backup for Ja Morant, but took over when Morant was injured. Best assist/to-ratio for 4 years in a row, no coincidence. Would be a solid backup, could play easily 15-20 min if needed and could be available with the MLE. This year developed also to be a 3-point threat. A nice little player....

 

[KilgoreTrout]

The website cleaningtheglass.com lists the Cavs’ 5-man lineups used this season and how successful each was in terms of net +/-.

For example, the most used lineup (455 possessions) had a net of +10.2 points per 100 possessions, which breaks down to the offense scoring 116.7 and the defense allowing 106.5. The Cavaliers averaged 94 possessions per game.

The 455 possessions for the most used lineup was the 5th lowest in the NBA this season, which points up the number of injuries the Cavs had. Denver was the highest with 1,563 possessions for their most used unit.

The Cavs’ most used 5-man grouping was only on the floor about 6% of the time, or just under 3 minutes per game.

Here are the most successful lineups that had 100 possessions or more:

1. Garland, Okoro, Wade, Mobley, Allen +19.3 (218 possessions)
2. Garland, Stevens, Markkanen, Mobley, Allen +13.5 (176)
3. Garland, LeVert, Okoro, Markkanen, Mobley +12.3 (169)
4. Garland, Okoro, Stevens, Markkanen, Mobley +11.4 (140)
5. Garland, Okoro, Markkanen, Mobley, Allen +10.2 (455)

Obviously #5 was the normal starting lineup for most of the season, but it was only the 5th most effective unit. Simply by subbing Wade in for Markkanen gets you the #1 unit and an extra 9.1 points. That turned out to be the second most used grouping.

Subbing Stevens for Okoro in the normal starting unit (#5) gets us #2, which was 3.3 points better.

I was happy to see a lineup that included LeVert coming in third place. The lineup I wanted to see was Garland, LeVert, Mark, Mobley, Allen, but due to injuries to LeVert and then Allen we never got to see that unit until the play-in game against Atlanta. According to Chris Fedor, that unit played 24 minutes against the Hawks and was a +8.0. And that was with Allen clearly less than 100%.

The other lineup of interest was to me with respect to next year was Garland, Sexton, Mark, Mobley, and Allen, which registered a +2.1 for 140 possessions.

The only lineup in the negative with over 100 possessions was Garland, LeVert, Okoro, Markkanen, and Moses Brown at -18.6. The same lineup with Love in for Brown was +5.9. Brown did some impressive things but they did not result in a winning unit, in fact, quite the opposite.

The top lineups with fewer than 100 possessions were:

1. Garland, Rubio, Markkanen, Mobley, Allen +52.4 (78 possessions)
(This is the normal starting lineup with Rubio in for Okoro)
2. Garland, Rubio, Osman, Mobley, Allen +49.8 (52 poss)
3. Garland, Rubio, Wade, Markkanen, Love +39.4 (42 poss)
4. Garland, Rubio, Osman, Love, Allen +31.0 (41 poss)

And in the under 30 really small sample category:

Garland, Rubio, Okoro, Love, Allen +79.3 (29 poss)
Garland, Rubio, Osman, Markkanen, Love +74.6 (29 poss)

What jumped out at me on these small sample units is the presence of Garland and Rubio in every one. When those two were on the floor together great things happened. Obviously the smaller the sample the less reliable because those lineups may have been in against easy opponents or second units, but the fact that Rubio was in all of the most effective small sample lineups points up how much his injury hurt the team.

Individually, Rubio was second to Garland in net on/off.

I have to believe the loss of Rubio was critical. The Cavs had won 11 of their last 14 when he got hurt. When games were close in the 4th quarter JBB put Garland and Rubio together and they often closed it out with a win. Osman in particular seemed to thrive when Garland and Rubio were in together, as evidenced by his presence in four of the top six small sample units.

The Cavs never adequately replaced Rubio. In the loss to the Hawks, for example, Rajon Rondo was a -18 in 15 minutes on the floor and the Cavs lost by 6.

This off-season Job One, IMO, is to find a veteran point guard that can back up Garland and keep the train rolling when he sits down. I don’t know if it could be Rubio himself; he was hurt at the end of December and the recovery period is usually a full year, if I’m not mistaken. Even then it’s unknown whether he will fully recover for the second half since he will be 32 in October and I believe this is the second ACL tear on that knee.

If not Rubio it has to be somebody. Collin Sexton? I don't know how the Cavs feel about that and whether they want him bouncing between the 1 and 2 every game or just focus on playing one position.

It really was a Tale of Two Seasons: With Rubio and Without Rubio. The team looked solid with him and shaky without him. Need to find someone with a steadying influence, if it isn’t Ricky himself.

Also need for Mobley to take a leap, and also need to find a real 3-and-D wing. I think I might have enough data on the likes of Okoro, LeVert, Windler, and Cedi. None of those guys is the answer. Stevens probably isn’t the answer, either, but he plays with toughness.

 

[KilgoreTrout]

How about Tyus Jones? He is normally a backup for Ja Morant, but took over when Morant was injured. Best assist/to-ratio for 4 years in a row, no coincidence. Would be a solid backup, could play easily 15-20 min if needed and could be available with the MLE. This year developed also to be a 3-point threat. A nice little player....

I like where your head is at.

 

[cliffdawg]

How about Tyus Jones?

Everything we would pay to get him, Memphis would do the same to retain him…..They know the way Ja Morant plays he could be out any given time with his high flying style of play…..

 

[cavsfever]

This really matches my perception of the season. Thanks for doing the work to document it.

Unfortunately Rubio was a special player who cannot be replaced by a generic “good” backup PG (although such a player would be an improvement on trying to replace him with a “bad” backup PG as we have done). He was an excellent defender with a genius-level basketball IQ and a great passer who made everyone around him better. Really, it was just his inefficient shooting that stopped him from being a potentially all star level starter. Not easy to find guys like that

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Chris Fedor mentioned on his podcast that Cedi's numbers "tailed off" after Rubio went down.

There seemed to be a lot of games where the starting unit would play even with the opponent's starters, and then Rubio would kick butt against the opponent's second unit by getting good looks for Cedi and Love as well as scoring himself. He made the other players better.

On Dec. 28 Darius Garland was out and Rubio started at point guard. He played 37 minutes before blowing out his ACL with 2:20 remaining. He was on the floor 37 out of 46 minutes before the injury. It was a close game and because the only other point guard was Pangos they decided to just have Ricky play almost the entire game. Did fatigue factor into his injury? We'll never know. He did have two games in November where he played 37 and 38 minutes.

 

[Lurking Upvoter]

I said that Rubio + Garland couldn't work. He doesn't have any of the things that you want next to Garland (besides size and defense) but yet somehow it worked amazingly well. There's something a little bit magical about Ricky. I don't think you want a knockoff version of Rubio (meaning a ball-dominant passer that isn't a great shooter). I think you want Ricky himself if he's able to come back or a different type of player.

 

[Heat Check]

I don't think you want a knockoff version of Rubio (meaning a ball-dominant passer that isn't a great shooter).

To be fair, that's almost exactly what Rubio himself was this season.

I love Ricky, but his usage % was off the charts (24.9, by far a career high) and he attempted a preposterous 15.3 field goals per 36 minutes (also a career high, and incidentally, more than Caris LeVert, who's a known shot hunter). He did all this while posting a truly terrible TS%: 48.8, the worst among the guys getting rotation minutes.

In other words, Rubio was hyper inefficient as a scorer. That's nothing new. As absence has made the heart grow fonder this season, we've tended to forget that Ricky was forcing a lot of stuff there was no need for. I've watched him since his rookie year and this season is literally the first when I thought he was playing selfishly at times. That was weird to see. He was also pretty sloppy with the ball.

I'm not as crazy about the prospect of resigning a 32 year old Rubio returning from his second major knee surgery as many others seem to be. I also don't think the Cavs falling off had that much to do with Rubio's absence. Correlation is not causation. IMO, it was going to happen with our without him if JBB wasn't gonna adjust to the league figuring us out.

Rubio happened to play during the early stretch when the team was red hot. He obviously had something to do with that, but IMO less than people like to think. His advanced stats paint a picture of a guy clearly on the decline and playing at an NBA average level even when he was on.

Ricky's been a pro since he was 14 or something, he has a lot of miles on those legs.

 

[David.]

Gotta get this guy back.

 

[jvpertz]

Rubio was playing all star caliber basketball here.

 

[Heat Check]

Rubio was playing all star caliber basketball here.

Counterpoint: no he wasn't.

 

[ansatsusha80]

GPII is PG size but he is a pure defender and runner on the floor. I love his game. He might be better on D than his dad was and is an absolute menace. However, he is not a shot creator for himself or others. I dont think JBB would be able to utilize him well.

I would not mind Tyus or Delon. Joseph is washed. Would rather keep Goodwin over him

Don't get me wrong GPII is a very good defensive player but nowhere near his dad's level on that side of the ball.