A "Depth"-Defying Experience - The Best Roster Ever?

[rabman_gold]

I've considered making this post for years, but with the dawn of the 2017-18 season slowly approaching (and one of the best rosters ever constructed by a Cavs team), I thought this would be the best time to finally put it in writing.

It's always been a discussion on the boards: how great a Cavs team is. How deep. How many all-stars. How many guys it takes to win a championship. But this year redefines that word "depth". Not counting the guys we already had that produced in big roles as starters (like LeBron, Love, Tristan, J.R.) or off the bench (Shumpert, Korver, Jefferson, Frye), we finally have picked up former big-timers on the cheap (Rose and Wade) or traded to fill out our depth (Thomas and Crowder).

To appreciate this year's historical depth, you have to look at the rest of our history and see what was lacking.

1975-1976 - The Miracle of Richfield

• Jim Chones
• Jim Brewer
• Nate Thurmond
• Bingo Smith
• Campy Russell
• Dick Snyder
• Jim Cleamons
• Austin Carr
• Foots Walker

• 9 players with 1000+ minutes played
• 7 players with 10+ points per game (Jim Chones and Campy Russell with 15+ points per game)

The first year we made the playoffs (1975-1976) was 9 players deep, but no standouts or big time all-stars.

Jim Chones (15.8 and 9), Jim Brewer (11.5 and 10.9), and Jim Cleamons (12.2, 4.3, and 5.2) were the leaders (all played 30+ minutes per game), but needed the mid-season trade for Nate Thurmond to realize that year's potential as a contender.

Nate Thurmond, a future hall of famer at this point, was a shell of his former self but a great addition in the leadership category.

Austin Carr was Mr. Cavalier but couldn't stay healthy enough to break out, so became a super scoring 6th man.

1988-1989 - A precursor to the infamous "Shot" game

• Brad Daugherty
• Larry Nance
• Hot Rod Williams
• Mike Sanders
• Ron Harper
• Mark Price
• Craig Ehlo
• Darnell Valentine

• 3 Eastern Conference all-stars (Brad Daugherty, Mark Price, and Larry Nance)
• 1 additional all-star level player (Ron Harper)
• 4 more players with 1000+ minutes played (Hot Rod Williams, Craig Ehlo, Mike Sanders, and Darnell Valentine)

While the 1976 squad was deeper, the talent level of this squad was much higher, leading to a better regular season than most Cavs teams. They had four players with at least 17+ points per game but continued to play great offensive basketball under former champion coach Lenny Wilkins. The primary reason for their 57 wins is because all of their top 7 players stayed healthy (at least 73 games played on the season). Unfortunately, the primary reason they lost in the first round of the playoffs was because their opponent had a superstar player moving into the prime of his career (Michael Jordan).

1991-92 was an extension of this squad. They didn't have Ron Harper anymore, but had acquired future rotational players (Terrell Brandon, Steve Kerr, Danny Ferry, and John Battle). It didn't make much of a difference and reached previous Cavalier milestones (57 regular season wins and reached the Eastern Conference Finals).

1993-94 had a deeper squad, but many of their previous all-stars could no longer stay healthy (Daugherty and Nance). It's a what-if moment in our history that never developed.

• Brad Daugherty
• Larry Nance
• Hot Rod Williams
• Tyrone Hill
• Gerald Wilkins
• Chris Mills
• Bobby Phills
• Mark Price
• Terrell Brandon
• John Battle

2008-2009 - The Greatest Regular Season Cavalier Team

• Zydrunas Ilgauskas
• Ben Wallace
• Anderson Varejao
• LeBron James
• Delonte West
• Mo Williams
• Wally Szczerbiak
• Sasha Pavlovic
• Daniel Gibson
• Joe Smith

• 1 NBA MVP (LeBron James)
• 1 All-Star level player (Mo Williams)
• 7 more players with 1000+ minutes played

A team on the rise thanks to finally having their first legitimate NBA superstar, they were able to win 66 games and reach the Eastern Conference Finals. By continuing to upgrade their roster each year, they finally had 9 players on their team at the start of the season who could impact the game positively (with the 10th player signing mid-season: Joe Smith). The primary reason they couldn't go further was because the other players were not at all-star level like their leader. It also didn't help that some players suffered injuries that affected their remaining season (Ben Wallace) and were a shell of their former selves (Zydrunas Ilgauskas).

2009-10 was similar (62 wins and Eastern Conference Semi-Finalists), despite being arguably the deepest roster to date.

• Shaquille O'Neal
• Antawn Jamison
• Zydrunas Ilgauskas
• Anderson Varejao
• J.J. Hickson
• LeBron James
• Jamario Moon
• Anthony Parker
• Mo Williams
• Delonte West
• Daniel Gibson

They had 5 players who appeared in at least 1 all-star game (Shaq, Z, Jamison, LeBron, and Mo), 3 more who had heavily contributed to the previous year's record-setting team (Andy, West, Gibson), and 3 others who produced average results at minimum (Hickson, Parker, and Moon). If only the team discovered the fountain of youth before the season ended...

2015-2016 - Cleveland's First Championship in 52 years

• Timofey Mozgov
• Kevin Love
• Tristan Thompson
• Channing Frye
• LeBron James
• Richard Jefferson
• J.R. Smith
• Iman Shumpert
• Kyrie Irving
• Matthew Dellavedova
• Mo Williams
• James Jones

This team combines the strengths of previous teams (1976's deepness, 1989-1992's all-stars, 2009's superstar) to give the team 1 superstar (LeBron), 2 all-star level players (Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love), 3 starter-level players (Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert), and 3 more players that contribute meaningful minutes in specialized role (Channing Frye, Richard Jefferson, and Matthew Dellavedova). It helped offset injuries as well.

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And now we have this squad.

• Tristan Thompson
• Kevin Love
• Channing Frye
• LeBron James
• Jae Crowder
• Jeff Green
• J.R. Smith
• Kyle Korver
• Dwyane Wade
• Derrick Rose
• Isiah Thomas
• Etc.

Because we have contended for the last 3 years, players who previously wouldn't sign here would take less money for the chance to win a championship. This included former all-stars Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose and former starter Jeff Green. It also allowed us to obtain high level players from other contenders (Jae Crowder and Isaiah Thomas), even though we traded a potential star in Irving. We also brought Euro stashed players who could break the rotation if luck plays a role (Cedi Osman and Ante Zizic).

Stats that help support our Historical Depth:
Value over Replacement Players
Over the course of the NBA regular season, the players that stand out on each team are given a number (-2.0 equals an average player, otherwise called a replacement player). I've added the VORP numbers each player contributed for each season (including players with negative values).

Numbers courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com

• 1975-1976: 12.8
• 1988-1989: 19.6
• 2008-2009: 21.9
• 2015-2016: 17.2

In comparison to some of the worst Cavalier seasons in our history as of 1973-1974:

• 1981-1982: 0.6
• 2002-2003: -2.3
• 2010-2011: -1.7

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So, what do you guys think? Will the team which has amassed all of the depth be able to answer one of the historically deepest teams in NBA History (Golden State)? I'm waiting for your in-"depth" answers .

 

[David.]

Depth doesn't win championships.

 

[Maximus]

We need a time machine for half our team.

 

[rabman_gold]

Depth doesn't win championships.

No, it doesn't. Not alone, at least.

Between 1980 and 2010 (30 year block of NBA Champions), each champion had at least 3-5 all-star quality players at their disposal.

The Lakers had Magic, Kareem, Worthy, and Scott for most of their championships in the 80s.

The Celtics had Bird, McHale, Parish.

The Pistons had Thomas, Dumars, and Laimbeer.

The Sixers had Moses, Erving, Cheeks, and Toney.

The Bulls with MJ, Pippen, Cartwright/Grant for the first 3; MJ, Pippen, Rodman/Kukoc, and Harper for the second 3-peat.

Spurs had Duncan, Parker, Ginobili with Robinson/Elliot/Avery sprinkled in.

The Phil Jackson Lakers had Shaq, Kobe, and Rice for most of the first set of titles. Then had Kobe, Gasol, Odom, and a little Bynum mixed in.

The Pistons had the two Wallaces, Billups, Prince, and Hamilton.

The Heat had Wade, Shaq, Williams, Walker and the older Payton and Mourning combination.

Finally, the Celtics had Allen, Pierce, Garnett, and Rondo.

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Having all-star depth has helped these teams succeed since 1 guy can't do it alone (as Wilt, MJ, and LeBron have learned as basketball life lessons).

But they all picked up extra bodies, many of which were former stars.

Lakers - Nixon, Chones, McAdoo, Haywood, Wilkes, Green, Kurt, Thompson, etc.

Celtics - Tiny, Maxwell, Ainge, Johnson, Henderson, even Walton

Pistons - Rodman, Aguirre, Johnson, Edwards

Bulls - Paxson, Kerr, etc.

Lakers - Richmond, Rider, Horry, Fisher, Grant, etc.

Spurs - Bowen, Horry, Rasho, Nazr, Barry, etc.

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If there is one thing that would make depth useless, it would be because of either a non-peaceful locker room or mismanagement of the coach involved. Egos are also a problem, depending on who the person with it is...

 

[RichieRichPaul]

I think the best cavs team ever was the 2014-15 cavs after the all star break until the playoffs where Kelly o took out Kevin.

I think that squad was most complete ever and they went on an insane winning run after all star. Without the injuries I believe we win the finals in 5 or 6. It was statistically the best defensive team since Lebron’s return.

We had dynamic, scoring pg, defensive, 3pt shooting 2, best 3 to ever lace em up, most talented stretch 4 ever and a big, mobile, rim protecting center who was playing great.

Tt was an energy 6th man who killed backup bigs and finished games.

Fucking injuries

 

[cavsfever]

We do not have all-star depth on this team, is the issue. We have a lot of big name bodies who can contribute something but are far from all star level. Two key questions are 1) whether Isaiah Thomas comes back fully and consistently healthy (most important question this year by far IMO), and 2) whether Kevin Love elevates his game in the absence of Kyrie and with more game planning from Lue.

If both of those things happen we have three all star level players. If neither of those things happen we have only one all star calibre player and a lot of decent depth. Teams with one all star plus solid depth tend not to win championships.

Frankly I am a little concerned about whether having Rose and Wade is going to distract the team from the crucial question of maximizing Love's talents. Rose will hog the ball a lot, Lebron will tend to focus on Wade when he is in the game, and Lue has not inspired confidence in terms of his leadership in that area.

You can get another take on the problem I am talking to by just adding up the VORP from our probable roster. Take Cedi and Zizic as zero (an optimistic assumption as rookies usually are a bit negative in that area). If you just add up last year's VORP for everybody you get 18.5. That looks pretty good compared to our championship year. But 4.8 points of that comes from Isaiah Thomas. If IT doesn't come back effectively then all of a sudden our VORP looks very low, unless KLove has a big breakout year.

As I said, I am not a big believer in VORP, it gives you fun results like Tristan Thompson being better than Kevin Love, or our 2008-2009 team being more talented than our 2015-2016 team, and it overrates high usage players on bad teams. But at least it's a consistent summary metric of RECENT stats from our roster, that is based on their objective recent performance instead of fond memories from when they were great.

 

[cavsfever]

Another way to look at this is Nate Silver's concept of team building for a championship. He posits that championship teams need an "alpha" (one of top five or six players in the league), a "beta" (sidekick to the alpha who is a no-doubt all-star or ideally all-star starter calibre player, but not among top players in the league), and a "gamma" (a borderline all-star with some great skills but holes in his game). You also need quality role players around them.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-the-celtics-have-enough-star-power-to-win-a-title-not-yet/


The problem is that we traded away our "beta" in Kyrie and did not replace him. If IT comes back fully then maybe we got close, but I think of IT as more of a "gamma" type player because of his defensive issues. (Yes, Kyrie is a bad regular season defender but can elevate during the playoffs in a way IT cannot). Love has not really been performing at all-star level for us, but at most you could call him a "gamma" as well.

Bottom line for us, it seems to me, is that if we don't get IT back full strength we don't fit the typical roster profile of a championship team. If we do get IT back, then if you squint at look sideways at our roster then maybe we could be a championship contender, but only if we have excellent coaching to cover up our defensive issues and make full use of our roster depth by excellent lineup management that takes advantage of advantageous matchups and adjusts on the fly. Lue has not shown that kind of ability yet, but one can dream.

 

[PIP]

We need a time machine for half our team.

Wayne, Donny, Marie, Neil.....

 

[Cavatt]

Depth may not win championships on its own, but roleplayers have to step up to win. You have to. PJ brown had to hit a couple little jumpers to beat the Cavs in 2008. RJ had to step up for ours. I trust DWade over Deron Williams in the clutch. That's me

 

[Pioneer10]

It really says something that we maybe a better title contender then last year even sans Irving but we most likely will still need to get an additional All star caliber to really have a chance against GS. We now have the depth now to neutralize Igoudala and Livingston who have killed us but we need another guy who can put up 20 in a Finals game and not get roasted on D.

Sure a healthy IT would go a long way with filling that hole but unfortunately GS is IMO the best team I've ever seen and a not a typical title contender. It's going to be tricky at the deadline and I'm in the minority but I would see what that Brooklyn pick could get us.

 

[Walter White]

Depth doesn't win championships.

But lack of depth can lose them.

 

[Snarly]

Depth may not win championships on its own, but roleplayers have to step up to win. You have to. PJ brown had to hit a couple little jumpers to beat the Cavs in 2008. RJ had to step up for ours. I trust DWade over Deron Williams in the clutch. That's me

Right and if we would had that last year we would have a series out of GS and if IT can give us Kyrie like numbers and everyone is healthy Rose and Wade alone have hit in the clutch so really It will be pick your poison and I am amazed Wade led that washed up Bulls team to focus and almost beat the Celtics. Wade from what I gather is the reason Rondo gave a fuck so I am happy as hell to have three chip guys and Wade here to take easy the burden on any one player. Crowder and Green on D and Crowder a very underrated 3 and D guy. I love what they got going.

 

[FrontPageNews]

All I’m hoping for with this depth is that Lebron plays much less and we finally become capable of holding or even (gasp) extending a lead with him out. So that he can have more energy for the finals.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

So who do we cut? We need to somehow keep Felder on the team as a two way player... we need him for entertainment value when the Cavs decide to rebuild.

One of the deepest teams in history, but the most of them are only here for this year alone, are past their prime and take playing time from the young guys. I just hope Wade and Rose look better than than they have for the last few seasons and we put ourself in a great position to do damage.

 

[cavsfever]

It really says something that we maybe a better title contender then last year even sans Irving but we most likely will still need to get an additional All star caliber to really have a chance against GS. We now have the depth now to neutralize Igoudala and Livingston who have killed us but we need another guy who can put up 20 in a Finals game and not get roasted on D.

Sure a healthy IT would go a long way with filling that hole but unfortunately GS is IMO the best team I've ever seen and a not a typical title contender. It's going to be tricky at the deadline and I'm in the minority but I would see what that Brooklyn pick could get us.

Agree with this, but it needs to be for a true all-star calibre talent who has signaled openness to staying with us long term. I'd favor trying to trade the NJ pick for DeMarcus Cousins, he has the talent level and skill set to be a true difference maker for us in the Finals, assuming Lebron can get his head on straight. But you'd need a sense that he would be open to re-signing.