Arias vs Freeman vs Rocchio - Rosario

[sportscoach]

This isn’t a versus thing. That it’s pitted as such is dumb. I hope you all realize that.

Too many of you are more concerned about someone winning out or about being right about who wins out instead of wanting to see guys in the best position possible to determine if they can play or not and going from there. Which is how it should be approached when you have 3 relatively equal talents fighting for 1 spot and no one has done anything to separate themselves from each other.

You can’t play all 3 at once in a role conducive to discovering the truth about the player. If you are taking that as playing favorites or committing to someone or a versus thing you’re looking at it wrong.

Now, if we want to have a discussion about moving guys to make it so you can play all of your choices more frequently, that’s a topic I’d be open to as something more realistic.

Thats on me, and this was more getting the convo about the MIF in a thread of its own rather than in the main threads...

Also, all three guys have been ranked with the same FV at some point...

Freeman has the best contact skills of the three and maybe the best floor, but has the lowest ceiling since he is doesn't have much power and likely has the weakest arm...

Rocchio is a switch hitter, who does everything well... May lack the arm you exactly want from SS and always wish for a few more HRs than he may give, but otherwise no true weaknesses...

Arias has the lowest floor but the highest ceiling...

Aka I wanted to get a discussion on who is the MIF combo in 24... I just setup that way since it would be better for clickbait lol

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Thats on me, and this was more getting the convo about the MIF in a thread of its own rather than in the main threads...

Also, all three guys have been ranked with the same FV at some point...

Freeman has the best contact skills of the three and maybe the best floor, but has the lowest ceiling since he is doesn't have much power and likely has the weakest arm...

Rocchio is a switch hitter, who does everything well... May lack the arm you exactly want from SS and always wish for a few more HRs than he may give, but otherwise no true weaknesses...

Arias has the lowest floor but the highest ceiling...

Aka I wanted to get a discussion on who is the MIF combo in 24... I just setup that way since it would be better for clickbait lol

I disagree with Arias having the lowest floor.

Even if he never improved, his defense at SS puts him above what the theoretical floor of Tyler Freeman at SS would be.

 

[sportscoach]

I disagree with Arias having the lowest floor.

Even if he never improved, his defense at SS puts him above what the theoretical floor of Tyler Freeman at SS would be.

Freeman has too good of floor with the bat in my mind, to say that his SS skills wouldn't be good enough to produce more bWAR than Arias if Arias struggles with the bat...

 

[Otsego Mar]

I disagree with Arias having the lowest floor.

Even if he never improved, his defense at SS puts him above what the theoretical floor of Tyler Freeman at SS would be.

I didn't see any of these guys play in the minors, but I haven't really seen anything at the majors that makes me believe Arias is far beyond those other guys defensively, except for arm strength.

 

[BimboColesHair]

I didn't see any of these guys play in the minors, but I haven't really seen anything at the majors that makes me believe Arias is far beyond those other guys defensively, except for arm strength.

Arias has been considered the best defensive infield prospect we have had since he was acquired, save for the brief 20 days Gimenez was still considered a prospect.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Thats on me, and this was more getting the convo about the MIF in a thread of its own rather than in the main threads...

Also, all three guys have been ranked with the same FV at some point...

Freeman has the best contact skills of the three and maybe the best floor, but has the lowest ceiling since he is doesn't have much power and likely has the weakest arm...

Rocchio is a switch hitter, who does everything well... May lack the arm you exactly want from SS and always wish for a few more HRs than he may give, but otherwise no true weaknesses...

Arias has the lowest floor but the highest ceiling...

Aka I wanted to get a discussion on who is the MIF combo in 24... I just setup that way since it would be better for clickbait lol

What is risky about his floor though?

I mean, I think everyone would admit he hasn't been the greatest at the plate, both when he was getting inconsistent at bats and when he's been given consistent ABs to finish out the season.

But even with that he is 20% better than league average against RHP, something that has remained steady his entire season this year, has shown he will willingly take walks, work deep into counts consistently which tells me there are tools to work with on pitch selection and plate discipline, hits a lot of doubles and HRs for his position, and is posting offensive stats that are, while not good, are at least good enough not to completely erase his value defensively.

So if this season is as bad as he gets, which it may not be, what is risky about that floor? A SS with good pop, hits RHP at an above average level, takes BBs, works deep into counts, and plays plus defense? Sounds like a pretty safe player on paper.

I've said it before, and nothing I have seen from either has changed my mind yet. The odds that one of Arias or Rocchio hits as a plus player on both sides is high.

 

[DCTribefan]

Much thanks!
Rcristal

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[southernflyer]

Since I live 600 miles from The Jake I was unable to attend last night. Any suggestions as to where best to purchase a t shirt?
Rcristal

eBay. If you definitely want one now there are a couple around $30 with shipping or $50 with the picture. Look at the images to weed out the fakes. If you wait a couple of weeks the prices may drop to $20 shirt /$35-40 shirt/picture shipped. I bought a Kwan promo shirt that way.

 

[MirORich]

You keep saying it's Arias turn, not a commitment, but to me this is lazy talent evaluation. What if Arias does what Brennan/Oscar did? Shows enough promise that you keep playing him, then regressed, but you've already dealt the others, who thrive elsewhere. This was the same "let's see what we got/their turn" situation.

My point: this way of "deciding" things is passive and prone to commit on mirage (this board being a prime example), just because "it was his turn" or "he's out of options".

And this MIF is much more crowded and more talented than the OF one.

If they truly believe they're all "similarly" talented, then I think that's a misevaluation.

It’s Arias’s “turn” for one reason and one reason only

That is the decision that was made by the Guardians FO/organization/staff

Whether you agree with it or not, that’s what the organization has decided

Bimbo saying it’s Arias’s turn is based on that, so there no need to grill him as if it’s a one vs one argument or opinion.

It’s Arias’s turn because that what the org has decide and that is an indisputable fact

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

What is risky about his floor though?

I mean, I think everyone would admit he hasn't been the greatest at the plate, both when he was getting inconsistent at bats and when he's been given consistent ABs to finish out the season.

But even with that he is 20% better than league average against RHP, something that has remained steady his entire season this year, has shown he will willingly take walks, work deep into counts consistently which tells me there are tools to work with on pitch selection and plate discipline, hits a lot of doubles and HRs for his position, and is posting offensive stats that are, while not good, are at least good enough not to completely erase his value defensively.

So if this season is as bad as he gets, which it may not be, what is risky about that floor? A SS with good pop, hits RHP at an above average level, takes BBs, works deep into counts, and plays plus defense? Sounds like a pretty safe player on paper.

I've said it before, and nothing I have seen from either has changed my mind yet. The odds that one of Arias or Rocchio hits as a plus player on both sides is high.

Well put. And if Arias ever develops the ability to hit lefties as well as he hits right-handed pitching he'll be a borderline All-Star. If he just gets to where he hits .220 against lefties he'll be a solid starter. In fact, if he hit .220 against lefties this year he would have 13 more hits and a .250 overall average to go along with 20 HR power if he plays every day.

Easier said than done as his strikeout percentage against lefties was an astonishing 50%. There were lots of times where lefties struck him out on three pitches, including 90 mph fastballs well inside the zone.

I don't buy the argument that he just didn't get to face quality lefties in the minors because there are very few of them. Every major league hitter got to the majors the same way - coming up through the minors. They all faced the same pitching down on the farm. But Arias is the only major league player I'm aware of that has a BA under .100 against opposite side arms.

To be fair, Freeman is hitting .191 against lefties and .276 against righties, so he also has negative splits, just not as extreme as Arias. Oscar Gonzalez as a rookie last year hit right-handers better then lefties by 62 OPS. Maybe the Guardians should look at how they're developing hitters in their farm system and find a way to give them more exposure to left-handed pitching. Maybe hire some college lefties to throw live BP during the winter. I don't know if that would tank their eligibility, but the Guardians need to figure out some way to get their most promising right-handed prospects more reps against lefties so they aren't helpless when they get to the bigs.