"Big" Regular Season Games as a Playoff Predictor

[wuck]

Before getting to the main point of this post, let me say that clearly the Cavs/Celtics game tonight was a much "bigger" game than many of those discussed below -- because of the tight race, home court advantage, the teams' current inability to win on the road against one another, avoiding a potential matchup against Boston/Orlando in the 2nd round, and so forth. So, this post is not meant to downplay the disappointment or ramifications of losing tonight's game. We have other threads about that.

As Cavs fans already know all too well, regular season success against a given team does not necessarily translate in a given playoff series. This post is about how the last 5 NBA champions fared in "big" regular season games and against the same teams in the playoffs. It also stacks up how the 2008-2009 Cavs perform in big games versus their elite competitors.

For the purposes of this post, I am defining "big" games as games played against elite teams -- any teams that finished with a Top 5 record in the league.


Celtics 2007-2008 (66-16, Top Seed Overall) in "Big" Games

Vs. Team | Regular Season | Playoffs
Pistons (59-23) | ..... 2-1 | 4-2
Lakers (57-26) | ..... 2-0 | 4-2
Hornets (56-26)| ..... 1-1 | n/a
Spurs (56-26) | ..... 1-1 | n/a
Total | ..... 6-3 | 8-4

Spurs 2006-2007 (58-24, 3rd Seed Overall) in "Big" Games

Vs. Team | Regular Season | Playoffs
Mavericks (67-15) | ..... 1-3 | n/a
Suns (61-21) | ..... 2-1 | 4-2
Pistons (53-29) | ..... 2-0 | n/a
Rockets (52-30) | ..... 2-2 | n/a
Cavs (50-32) | ..... 0-2 | 4-0 ..... not a top 5 record but their finals opponent, not counted in total
Total | ..... 7-6 | 4-2

Heat 2005-2006 (52-30, 5th Seed Overall) in "Big" Games

Vs. Team | Regular Season | Playoffs
Pistons (64-18) | ..... 1-3 | 4-2
Spurs (63-19) | ..... 2-1 | 4-2
Mavericks (60-22) | ..... 0-2 | 4-2
Suns (54-28) | ..... 0-2 | n/a
Total | ..... 3-8 | 12-6

Spurs 2004-2005 (59-23, Tied for 2nd Seed Overall) in "Big Games"

Vs. Team | Regular Season | Playoffs
Suns (62-20) | ..... 2-1 | 4-1
Heat (59-23) | ..... 1-1 | n/a
Mavericks (58-24) | ..... 3-1 | n/a
Pistons (54-28) | ..... 1-1 | 4-3
Total | ..... 7-4 | 8-3

Pistons 2003-2004 (54-28, 6th Seed Overall) in "Big" Games

Vs. Team | Regular Season | Playoffs
Pacers (61-21) | ..... 1-3 | 4-2
Timberwolves (58-24) | ..... 0-2 | n/a
Spurs (57-25) | ..... 1-1 | n/a
Lakers (56-26) | ..... 1-1 | 4-1
Kings (55-27) | ..... 0-2 | n/a
Total | ..... 3-8 | 8-3

How the current Top 5 Teams in 2008-2009 Match Up Against One Another

Team | "Big" Games played | "Big" Games left
Lakers (50-12) | ..... 5-3 | @SAS
Cavs (48-13) | ..... 2-5 | ORL, @ORL, SAS, BOS
Celtics (49-14) | ..... 4-4 | ORL, @SAS, @ORL, @CLE
Magic (45-16) | ..... 5-2 | @BOS, @CLE, BOS, CLE
Spurs (41-20) | ..... 2-4 | LAL, BOS, @CLE

Some Observations

1. Winning big games during the regular season is not a prerequisite for playoff success. Last year's Celtics were 6-3, the Pistons were 3-8 in 2003-2004. But I haven't looked Lakers records the previous 3 years -- I imagine they were very strong. And the data is skewed because surprise teams like the Pistons and Heat have shown how getting on a roll can take teams all the way. Super-elite teams who roll through the regular season and playoffs obviously are going to have outstanding records throughout.

2. The last 5 NBA champions are 26-28 in "big" games during the regular season and 40-18 in games against the same opponents in the playoffs. Considering current records, this year won't shift those numbers much no matter who takes it all. By definition, elite teams come up big when it really counts.

3. Some teams, like the 2006-2007 Spurs end up avoiding nearly all of their elite competition in the playoffs. This year, the Lakers and Spurs would play, at maximum, two "elite" opponents.

4. If the remaining "big" games in 2008-2009 are won by the home team, the final records will look like this from top to bottom: Magic 7-4, Lakers 5-4, Spurs 4-5, Cavs 5-6, Celtics 5-7. Would that mean that the Magic are the favorites and the Celtics have little shot? I doubt it.

5. Yes, I know the sample size is small, this post does not address various contingencies (road/home, injuries, back-to-back, etc.) and there are plenty of games that are "big" that are not played against top 5 opponents. But in an age of relative parity in the NBA, recent "big game" records during the regular season have not correlated particularly well with playoff performance.

Of course, I still wanted the Cavs to beat the Celtics tonight. It was an especially big game, after all....

 

[Mdog1]

Finally a post that isn't a reactionary one. This one actually makes sense to me. SAS we swept in the regular season, but wait didn't they sweep us? lol. Good chart my man.

 

[Obawan12]

I realize what you are saying, but this wasn't just another game against Boston. I felt this way before the game, and I still do: If we had won, we would have had a 3 game lead in the loss column, and still had a home game against them. If we won that, we would have a 4 game lead (I am saying if we have the same records in-between those 2 games, unlikely), plus the tie-breaker, basically giving us a 5 game lead, and with 12 of our last 17 at the Q, a stranglehold on the number one seed.

In short, this game might cost us the number one seed.

 

[dimmg]

This is a great post. It is good to see a post that has a lot of substance and one that is relevent to the time of the season.

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[wuck]

Finally a post that isn't a reactionary one.

For my reactionary post(s), see Karma's thread....

I realize what you are saying, but this wasn't just another game against Boston.

I agree with you. Some "big" games are much "bigger" than others. This post is not meant to downplay the missed opportunity and poor play in last night's game, which I explained above. It's not meant as an excuse or as a secret strategy ("let's lose our big games so we can win the title just like Miami/Detroit. that's gonna work").

But there has been a lot of criticism this year about how certain top teams (like the Cavs and also the Celtics, before last night) have struggled against tough competition, so I got curious.

Perhaps the thread would better be titled "Regular Season Games against Elite Competition as a Playoff Predictor", since what is "big" or "bigger" is tough to quantify.

 

[jim jim]

I agree that game meant nothing, Lebron had a bad game, Delonte had a bad game, Joe Smith was off, Z was good in the first half but off in the second, Mo was good. Av was good. So we had 2 players that showed up last night. Our rotation was funnky, not sure if that is because MB is trying to figure out how to get JS in there. None the less I personally think the difference in the game was West, he made lots of mistakes last night on D, and he seemed hesitant to take shots, he passed a lot of open threes just to move into contested shots. And our game plan was horrible. we started out doubling and tripleing Ray Allen and Pierce, which made Davis, Powe, and perkins all stars. Last night was exactly why Big Ben is of Value. I honestly think we would have been better off if KG played. Those 3 showed a weekness we have, which is interior speed.

 

[Splitz]

West, he seemed hesitant to take shots, he passed a lot of open threes just to move into contested shots.

This point cannot be overstated. What is going on with Delonte's confidence in his own perimeter shooting? He is hesitating on almost every open look giving the defender just enough time to recover.

 

[Pioneer10]

We beat up on the Spurs in the regular season before they proceeded to beat us all Chris Brown on Rhianna like. As long as Brown and the Cavs learn from these losses they'll just end up being losses no one remembers after playoffs win or lose.

The aggregate of all these wins and losses: i.e. homecourt or not is going to be important of course but it will be the aggregate not any win or loss. We still have another game against the Celtics!

 

[wuck]

As long as Brown and the Cavs learn from these losses they'll just end up being losses no one remembers after playoffs win or lose.

Yeah, I think our impressions of what happened last night could change earlier than the start of the playoffs. If the Cavs are able to snag the top seed in the NBA (or the top seed in the Eastern Conference), or if a higher seed gets upset during the playoffs, then few will care about whether they lost certain regular season games.

If the Cavs blow it by a game or two, we'll have a sick feeling that will turn worse unless the Cavs advance past the higher seed. The moment fans would care the most would come if the Cavs get a bad seed and lose, or if they don't have home court advantage and end up losing a series (or a game 7) because of it. So, the jury is still out on the big picture.

I actually wonder if the Celtics and Cavs players are making a little too much of home court advantage. I've been surprised that some players have talked so much about it. I know it's been critical for 15 games in a row, but these streaks don't last forever. I could see Game 2 of a series between the two of them going to the road team. Does that mean that the Cavs should aim for the #2 seed? Of course not. I think the prospects of having to face Orlando in the 2nd round and the Celtics in the 3rd round is a bigger problem than home court for a given series. But upsets are also possible (Hi, Dallas Mavericks), so one game, one round at a time.

Anyway, I think the Cavs:

• still have a very good shot at the top seed in the East, possibly in the league

• are not guaranteed home court playoff dominance in the playoffs with the top seed, since several teams are playing at a high level

• are not toast if they don't have the top seed, although the road will be way tougher

• are utterly burnt toast if they play as badly as they did last night.

 

[TAS]

At times while watching Mike Brown coach, i feel like he is saving the big plays for the playoffs.

 

[ThaDruggist]

well you gotta look at it like this too. cavs just need to win period. what if they won last night but ended up losing tonight at home to the heat? like either AC or fred said last night, theres 82 games in the season and they all count the same. while we agree some MEAN more than others, a win is a win and a loss is a loss. we just gotta keep rollin and gettin as many Ws as we can. if we beat boston last night but lose a few this week, then we're still gonna be behind the celts.


1 game at a time guys!

 

[bucksprime99]

well you gotta look at it like this too. cavs just need to win period. what if they won last night but ended up losing tonight at home to the heat? like either AC or fred said last night, theres 82 games in the season and they all count the same. while we agree some MEAN more than others, a win is a win and a loss is a loss. we just gotta keep rollin and gettin as many Ws as we can. if we beat boston last night but lose a few this week, then we're still gonna be behind the celts.


1 game at a time guys!

Unfortunately, they don't all count the same when it comes to getting home court.

Beating your rival for the one seed head to head, and then beating teams in your own conference, help more than a win vs. a team from the other conference.

It's not about 'perceived' value or what they 'mean', there is actually more 'value' wrt playoff positioning...

 

[Mr. Glass]

I'm tired of learning from losses, I want to start winning. And we have 000% winning percentage in the games I want to see us win. On the road, against the team we will face in the conference finals; and on the road (or at home) against the team we may face in the finals.

My confidence in this team took an overwhelming hit with the way they played last night.

 

[bucksprime99]

My confidence in this team took an overwhelming hit with the way they played last night.

That sounds like me after the Lakers game...glad I was unable to see the second half last night...

 

[gourimoko]

I'm tired of learning from losses, I want to start winning. And we have 000% winning percentage in the games I want to see us win. On the road, against the team we will face in the conference finals; and on the road (or at home) against the team we may face in the finals.

My confidence in this team took an overwhelming hit with the way they played last night.

Honestly, our loss last night is inexcusable, period. The original post in this thread is fantastic, and can make us feel a lot better about our loss (or some of us at least); but it really doesn't address why Mike Brown decided to bench LeBron starting the 4th; why he allowed LBJ to chuck contested shots, 3-pointers, etc; why the call for man-to-man D was ignored by LeBron which ended up in terrible mismatches like Mo on Allen or West/Andy on Pierce; etc etc etc...

At what point does someone man up and suggest that our game plan isn't working and will not work going into the playoffs? My confidence in Mike Brown took a huge hit last night. When is he going to start coaching this team?