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Before getting to the main point of this post, let me say that clearly the Cavs/Celtics game tonight was a much "bigger" game than many of those discussed below -- because of the tight race, home court advantage, the teams' current inability to win on the road against one another, avoiding a potential matchup against Boston/Orlando in the 2nd round, and so forth. So, this post is not meant to downplay the disappointment or ramifications of losing tonight's game. We have other threads about that.
As Cavs fans already know all too well, regular season success against a given team does not necessarily translate in a given playoff series. This post is about how the last 5 NBA champions fared in "big" regular season games and against the same teams in the playoffs. It also stacks up how the 2008-2009 Cavs perform in big games versus their elite competitors.
For the purposes of this post, I am defining "big" games as games played against elite teams -- any teams that finished with a Top 5 record in the league.
Celtics 2007-2008 (66-16, Top Seed Overall) in "Big" Games
Vs. Team | Regular Season | Playoffs
Pistons (59-23) | ..... 2-1 | 4-2
Lakers (57-26) | ..... 2-0 | 4-2
Hornets (56-26)| ..... 1-1 | n/a
Spurs (56-26) | ..... 1-1 | n/a
Total | ..... 6-3 | 8-4
Spurs 2006-2007 (58-24, 3rd Seed Overall) in "Big" Games
Vs. Team | Regular Season | Playoffs
Mavericks (67-15) | ..... 1-3 | n/a
Suns (61-21) | ..... 2-1 | 4-2
Pistons (53-29) | ..... 2-0 | n/a
Rockets (52-30) | ..... 2-2 | n/a
Cavs (50-32) | ..... 0-2 | 4-0 ..... not a top 5 record but their finals opponent, not counted in total
Total | ..... 7-6 | 4-2
Heat 2005-2006 (52-30, 5th Seed Overall) in "Big" Games
Vs. Team | Regular Season | Playoffs
Pistons (64-18) | ..... 1-3 | 4-2
Spurs (63-19) | ..... 2-1 | 4-2
Mavericks (60-22) | ..... 0-2 | 4-2
Suns (54-28) | ..... 0-2 | n/a
Total | ..... 3-8 | 12-6
Spurs 2004-2005 (59-23, Tied for 2nd Seed Overall) in "Big Games"
Vs. Team | Regular Season | Playoffs
Suns (62-20) | ..... 2-1 | 4-1
Heat (59-23) | ..... 1-1 | n/a
Mavericks (58-24) | ..... 3-1 | n/a
Pistons (54-28) | ..... 1-1 | 4-3
Total | ..... 7-4 | 8-3
Pistons 2003-2004 (54-28, 6th Seed Overall) in "Big" Games
Vs. Team | Regular Season | Playoffs
Pacers (61-21) | ..... 1-3 | 4-2
Timberwolves (58-24) | ..... 0-2 | n/a
Spurs (57-25) | ..... 1-1 | n/a
Lakers (56-26) | ..... 1-1 | 4-1
Kings (55-27) | ..... 0-2 | n/a
Total | ..... 3-8 | 8-3
How the current Top 5 Teams in 2008-2009 Match Up Against One Another
Team | "Big" Games played | "Big" Games left
Lakers (50-12) | ..... 5-3 | @SAS
Cavs (48-13) | ..... 2-5 | ORL, @ORL, SAS, BOS
Celtics (49-14) | ..... 4-4 | ORL, @SAS, @ORL, @CLE
Magic (45-16) | ..... 5-2 | @BOS, @CLE, BOS, CLE
Spurs (41-20) | ..... 2-4 | LAL, BOS, @CLE
Some Observations
1. Winning big games during the regular season is not a prerequisite for playoff success. Last year's Celtics were 6-3, the Pistons were 3-8 in 2003-2004. But I haven't looked Lakers records the previous 3 years -- I imagine they were very strong. And the data is skewed because surprise teams like the Pistons and Heat have shown how getting on a roll can take teams all the way. Super-elite teams who roll through the regular season and playoffs obviously are going to have outstanding records throughout.
2. The last 5 NBA champions are 26-28 in "big" games during the regular season and 40-18 in games against the same opponents in the playoffs. Considering current records, this year won't shift those numbers much no matter who takes it all. By definition, elite teams come up big when it really counts.
3. Some teams, like the 2006-2007 Spurs end up avoiding nearly all of their elite competition in the playoffs. This year, the Lakers and Spurs would play, at maximum, two "elite" opponents.
4. If the remaining "big" games in 2008-2009 are won by the home team, the final records will look like this from top to bottom: Magic 7-4, Lakers 5-4, Spurs 4-5, Cavs 5-6, Celtics 5-7. Would that mean that the Magic are the favorites and the Celtics have little shot? I doubt it.
5. Yes, I know the sample size is small, this post does not address various contingencies (road/home, injuries, back-to-back, etc.) and there are plenty of games that are "big" that are not played against top 5 opponents. But in an age of relative parity in the NBA, recent "big game" records during the regular season have not correlated particularly well with playoff performance.
Of course, I still wanted the Cavs to beat the Celtics tonight. It was an especially big game, after all....
As Cavs fans already know all too well, regular season success against a given team does not necessarily translate in a given playoff series. This post is about how the last 5 NBA champions fared in "big" regular season games and against the same teams in the playoffs. It also stacks up how the 2008-2009 Cavs perform in big games versus their elite competitors.
For the purposes of this post, I am defining "big" games as games played against elite teams -- any teams that finished with a Top 5 record in the league.
Celtics 2007-2008 (66-16, Top Seed Overall) in "Big" Games
Pistons (59-23) | ..... 2-1 | 4-2
Lakers (57-26) | ..... 2-0 | 4-2
Hornets (56-26)| ..... 1-1 | n/a
Spurs (56-26) | ..... 1-1 | n/a
Total | ..... 6-3 | 8-4
Spurs 2006-2007 (58-24, 3rd Seed Overall) in "Big" Games
Mavericks (67-15) | ..... 1-3 | n/a
Suns (61-21) | ..... 2-1 | 4-2
Pistons (53-29) | ..... 2-0 | n/a
Rockets (52-30) | ..... 2-2 | n/a
Cavs (50-32) | ..... 0-2 | 4-0 ..... not a top 5 record but their finals opponent, not counted in total
Total | ..... 7-6 | 4-2
Heat 2005-2006 (52-30, 5th Seed Overall) in "Big" Games
Pistons (64-18) | ..... 1-3 | 4-2
Spurs (63-19) | ..... 2-1 | 4-2
Mavericks (60-22) | ..... 0-2 | 4-2
Suns (54-28) | ..... 0-2 | n/a
Total | ..... 3-8 | 12-6
Spurs 2004-2005 (59-23, Tied for 2nd Seed Overall) in "Big Games"
Suns (62-20) | ..... 2-1 | 4-1
Heat (59-23) | ..... 1-1 | n/a
Mavericks (58-24) | ..... 3-1 | n/a
Pistons (54-28) | ..... 1-1 | 4-3
Total | ..... 7-4 | 8-3
Pistons 2003-2004 (54-28, 6th Seed Overall) in "Big" Games
Pacers (61-21) | ..... 1-3 | 4-2
Timberwolves (58-24) | ..... 0-2 | n/a
Spurs (57-25) | ..... 1-1 | n/a
Lakers (56-26) | ..... 1-1 | 4-1
Kings (55-27) | ..... 0-2 | n/a
Total | ..... 3-8 | 8-3
How the current Top 5 Teams in 2008-2009 Match Up Against One Another
Lakers (50-12) | ..... 5-3 | @SAS
Cavs (48-13) | ..... 2-5 | ORL, @ORL, SAS, BOS
Celtics (49-14) | ..... 4-4 | ORL, @SAS, @ORL, @CLE
Magic (45-16) | ..... 5-2 | @BOS, @CLE, BOS, CLE
Spurs (41-20) | ..... 2-4 | LAL, BOS, @CLE
Some Observations
1. Winning big games during the regular season is not a prerequisite for playoff success. Last year's Celtics were 6-3, the Pistons were 3-8 in 2003-2004. But I haven't looked Lakers records the previous 3 years -- I imagine they were very strong. And the data is skewed because surprise teams like the Pistons and Heat have shown how getting on a roll can take teams all the way. Super-elite teams who roll through the regular season and playoffs obviously are going to have outstanding records throughout.
2. The last 5 NBA champions are 26-28 in "big" games during the regular season and 40-18 in games against the same opponents in the playoffs. Considering current records, this year won't shift those numbers much no matter who takes it all. By definition, elite teams come up big when it really counts.
3. Some teams, like the 2006-2007 Spurs end up avoiding nearly all of their elite competition in the playoffs. This year, the Lakers and Spurs would play, at maximum, two "elite" opponents.
4. If the remaining "big" games in 2008-2009 are won by the home team, the final records will look like this from top to bottom: Magic 7-4, Lakers 5-4, Spurs 4-5, Cavs 5-6, Celtics 5-7. Would that mean that the Magic are the favorites and the Celtics have little shot? I doubt it.
5. Yes, I know the sample size is small, this post does not address various contingencies (road/home, injuries, back-to-back, etc.) and there are plenty of games that are "big" that are not played against top 5 opponents. But in an age of relative parity in the NBA, recent "big game" records during the regular season have not correlated particularly well with playoff performance.
Of course, I still wanted the Cavs to beat the Celtics tonight. It was an especially big game, after all....