We will find out Grant's strategy in the next month. If Spieghts continues to play the way he's playing, he's going to opt out at the end of the year and get more than $4 million. The issue that Grant has is whether he wants to keep cap space available to make a pitch to LeBron. Doing the math, we just about have enough space for a max deal to avoid a sign and trade or losing V to create cap room. The roster would be for Irving, Waiters, TT, V, Zeller, Gee, 4 first round picks (our top-5 and 3 in mid teens - assuming LA pick, Sac pick and our pick next year) that is solid 10 plus a max deal player without Speights. Even though there is less than a 25% chance LeBron would come here, we have availability to lure another top free-agent here under a max deal. So, in this option, we have our core, plus max FA, plus Memphis, Miami firsts plus Speights asset via trading him now.
Now, if we sign Speights to FA contract next year, even if it is $6 million, we need to cut V to have enough space to sign someone or do a sign and trade for that star player. Unfortunately, the trade will not be for two firsts like we got for Miami as they had cap room and thus had leverage. They only wanted the extra year and higher salary increase via sign-n-trade rather than sign Bosh and LeBron out right. So, who do we trade? Waiters/TT and a few picks if a team had us by the balls due to wasting our cap room? This assumes Waiters/TT develop into great players worthy of trade, far greater value than Speights. So, here we are left with Speights, FA, Core less TT, Weiters or V and probably less the Miami and Memphis picks.
For me, to get a FA worthy of max deal, whether it is LeBron or others is worth it. We will already have a solid core plus some bench with 3-4 more picks. The difference in Ell or Speights versus what you get off scrap heap is far less than the difference in what you need to give up in sign-n-trade without leverage. Even if there's less than 50% chance it works, that Memphis pick is more valuable than Speights. Remember, Toronto got back their 5th pick for Bosh and they had no leverage to ask for more. Who do you think Miami will ask for to let LeBron walk? Keep our leverage, it is well worth it versus 6th man in Speights. Yes, we may give up two picks in any Sign-n-trade like Miami gave us. But, if we have to give up TT/Weiters plus more picks, is he worth it, just to keep Speights?
Get your key players in, then worry about how to fill around them. If you think, Speights is better than V, then fine keep him and prepare to lose V. But, if we draft Noel, Zeller, or Len in this draft, TT, V, Zeller and pick leave little room for Speights.
