Cavs vs. Boston -- 2017 Eastern Conference Finals

[Winelight]

Interesting take on why the Cavs are crushing the East....

http://www.armchairallamericans.com/nba-playoffs-takes-village/

 

[Tornicade]

Boston was down 2-0 against the Bulls and they came out ready to play. Bulls not having Rondo was a big factor but they came ready to play regardless.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Cavs lose the Rim on their shots. so a a Tight game isn't out of the question.

I also wouldn't be surprised If we see a different starting lineup in addition to Thomas being out.

that being said. I don't care if the Cavs win by 30 or win by 1. as long as they win.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

already watched the game 4 times. enjoyed it every time.

After watching IT struggle so much, my confidence in Felder went down 2 notches.. we'll see how he improves next season.

 

[bboy]

I hope the Cavs respect Boston enough to know they need 2 more wins to close them out...Boston will not quit and the Cavs need to maintain focus which I think they will

 

[JMoneyYourHoney]

The best part just might be all the Raptors fans gloating about how they didn't get swept this badly.

 

[mhi]

Remind of you of another record-breaking Game 2 guys? Shades for sure.

I said this after Game 1, but yeah you pick your poison. After the layup line in Game 1, Stevens decided to pack the paint and we shot them out of it.

They're out of options but if I were to guess one adjustment for Game 3, it's that they will double down on the bigger lineups.

 

[czvo]

Posted this in the game thread, but figured I'd share it here as well. In 96 total minutes, the Cavaliers have not trailed. In fact, of those 96 minutes, they've led by DOUBLE DIGITS for 79 minutes and 10 seconds. That means the Cavs have led by double digits for over 82% of game time.

To add to this, the only time either game has been tied has been tip. That's 42 seconds in game 1, and 57 seconds in game 2. So of the 96 minutes of game time, it's been tied for 1:39, and the Cavs have led for 94:21.

 

[shoes22]

After watching IT struggle so much, my confidence in Felder went down 2 notches. we'll see how he improves next season.

It hasn't for me, because my ceiling for Felder has always been "competent rotational backup". IT is struggling so much because he's the best player on that team by a significant margin, so it's laughably easy to exploit his weaknesses.

Felder won't (and shouldn't) ever have that role where he actually has to lead a team, but if he can develop into a decent backup point guard, that's all we need or can ever really ask for out of him.

 

[Jack Brickman]

It hasn't for me, because my ceiling for Felder has always been "competent rotational backup". IT is struggling so much because he's the best player on that team by a significant margin, so it's laughably easy to exploit his weaknesses.

Felder won't (and shouldn't) ever have that role where he actually has to lead a team, but if he can develop into a decent backup point guard, that's all we need or can ever really ask for out of him.

Yup. It's why a guy like Nate Robinson was a capable role-player on a bunch of good teams, but never the best player on any of them. Thomas' issues are even worse because he's dog shit on the defensive end, which means if he's not scoring, he's useless. If he weren't the best player, it wouldn't be as big an issue, but you can't have your best player be both 5'9" and awful defensively. It just doesn't work.

Felder's success will be determined by whether or not he can become a competent role-player on this team, and what's happening to Thomas has little to do with that.

 

[priceFTW]

They tried to attack Kyrie and Love in P&R, but both of them kept recovering nicely instead of being blasted out of the play. It makes a huge difference.

Here's a highlights video you never thought you would see.

 

[Mr. Orange]

This Jaylen Brown hype is a little premature. He had a few ok minutes, was clowned by LeBron a number of times, then looked decent against our 3rd team. Not saying he won't be a good player, but this game was over at the half.

 

[shoes22]

Meh...538 doesn’t even attempt to correct for some very basic significant variables.

Let’s say team A is way, way better than team B. Team A is up by 25+ points for most of the game, and rest their starters in the fourth quarter. But team A’s third string off the bench sucks and they only end up winning the game by 6. The only thing 538 factors in when adjusting the rating for both teams is that small +6, not the fact that team A was actually winning by 20+ for over 40 minutes of game time.

Or for some real world examples, let’s say LeBron takes a game off for rest, or in a much anticipated playoff game Kawhi Leonard gets injured for the Spurs and is ruled out for the next game. In 538’s ELO model, does that change the predicted odds for the next game?

Spoiler alert: It doesn’t!

@InBoobieWeTrust Curious about the disagree on this...nothing I wrote here is factually inaccurate.
You can see it in the Western Conference Finals game tonight. When the Warriors beat the Spurs by 20+ tonight without Kawhi playing, the Warriors rating will increase and the Spurs rating will decrease by the same amount as the Warriors beating the Spurs by 20+ with Kawhi playing, and I don't think that's fair or reasonable. One is a much more significant accomplishment than the other, and the team rating adjustment should reflect that.

In the regular season, shouldn't Atlanta be awarded more ELO points for beating the Cavs when LeBron plays as opposed to beating the Cavs in a game where LeBron is resting? Treating everything as equal is fine when you're looking at a macro level of a team's performance over the span of multiple years (which 538 attempts to do), but applying that same methodology to a 7 game playoff series is idiotic.

 

[czvo]

This Jaylen Brown hype is a little premature. He had a few ok minutes, was clowned by LeBron a number of times, then looked decent against our 3rd team. Not saying he won't be a good player, but this game was over at the half.

I wouldn't call people acknowledging that a rookie played well hype. Jaylen DID play well. He's a young kid with a bright future.

 

[InBoobieWeTrust]

@InBoobieWeTrust Curious about the disagree on this...nothing I wrote here is factually inaccurate.
You can see it in the Western Conference Finals game tonight. When the Warriors beat the Spurs by 20+ tonight without Kawhi playing, the Warriors rating will increase and the Spurs rating will decrease by the same amount as the Warriors beating the Spurs by 20+ with Kawhi playing, and I don't think that's fair or reasonable. One is a much more significant accomplishment than the other, and the team rating adjustment should reflect that.

In the regular season, shouldn't Atlanta be awarded more ELO points for beating the Cavs when LeBron plays as opposed to beating the Cavs in a game where LeBron is resting? Treating everything as equal is fine when you're looking at a macro level of a team's performance over the span of multiple years (which 538 attempts to do), but applying that same methodology to a 7 game playoff series is idiotic.

I think I just accidentally fat-fingered the disagree button while swiping my phone. The inner-workings of advanced statistical models are over my head. I have no opinion on it. edit: I went and took it away.

 

[Mr. Orange]

I wouldn't call people acknowledging that a rookie played well hype. Jaylen DID play well. He's a young kid with a bright future.

Sure. he looked decent. I didn't really notice him until garbage time though. Celts forum acting like he is the second coming after last night