Cleveland Browns Quarterback Position

[DJTJ]

Outside of Andrew Luck, I honestly can't remember a true pro style QB in the last decade...

 

[The Oi]

Bortles still available over in the mock draft.

 

[buzzdog]

I've heard some comments elsewhere saying that drafting Kizer shows the Browns don't have any kind of master plan in regards to the QB position, and drafting him runs contrary to the decision to trade down with #12 to get another first rounder for 2018 to draft a QB there.

I think this is a dumb opinion. The QB position always has a high value and drafting Kizer in no way eliminates us from drafting another high level QB in 2018 if the draft falls to us the right way.

Sure if Kizer has a great rookie season then perhaps we'd use our 2 #1 picks to build the team in other ways. But if he is still an unknown and we draft one of the top QBs in 2018 and then end up with 2 or 3 quality QBs I fail to see how this is any kind of a problem.

Look at the perceived value Garopollo has. Drafting Kizer in the 2nd is pretty close to a no-lose decision as long as nothing catastrophic happens with him.

 

[The Oi]

Drafting Kizer in the 2nd is pretty close to a no-lose decision as long as nothing catastrophic happens with him.

...

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I've heard some comments elsewhere saying that drafting Kizer shows the Browns don't have any kind of master plan in regards to the QB position, and drafting him runs contrary to the decision to trade down with #12 to get another first rounder for 2018 to draft a QB there.

I think this is a dumb opinion. The QB position always has a high value and drafting Kizer in no way eliminates us from drafting another high level QB in 2018 if the draft falls to us the right way.

I agree -- that's a very dumb opinion. A more rational way to look at it is that the decision to get Kizer in the second round while hedging bets by trading down in the first actually supplement, rather than contradict, each other. It is also possible that the draft assets we've acquired next year might be used to acquire a veteran QB, who would pair even better with Kizer.

 

[dark2332]

I agree -- that's a very dumb opinion. A more rational way to look at it is that the decision to get Kizer in the second round while hedging bets by trading down in the first actually supplement, rather than contradict, each other. It is also possible that the draft assets we've acquired next year might be used to acquire a veteran QB, who would pair even better with Kizer.

I think the decision to take Kizer was a simple one.... he was the best player available on their board at 52 and he wasn't at 25 or 29. I don't think it's in any way rooted in some type of quarterback indecision/lack of a master plan.

 

[Kbiz]

I think the decision to take Kizer was a simple one.... he was the best player available on their board at 52 and he wasn't at 25 or 29. I don't think it's in any way rooted in some type of quarterback indecision/lack of a master plan.

Agreed. If anything it tells me that we didn't see much of a difference b/w the top 4 QB prospects and we weren't going to reach for any. Considering we had 1.5 questionably serviceable QB's going into the draft, picking another QB seems wise.

 

[Matches]

Tactically, if Kizer was the top guy in the board at that slot, it makes sense to pick him. Strategically, I'm not sure it is.

We know that the front office is playing the long game. Theyre finding ways to end up with more picks than anyone else and counting on the fact that sheer numbers will bubble them up to the top of the league. They also know that exceptional quarterback play is both the surest way to find long term success AND the most difficult thing to acquire.

I truly don't know what it means to "develop a quarterback". Is there a difference in the expected development between a guy who is the backup vs the #3? Part of me wonders can we really learn enough about Kizer to know if we are in the market for one of the top quarterbacks in 2018 if he never plays a snap, which many pundits advocate?

But then the other part of me realizes that coaches and talen evaluators find a way to make decisions on prospects after seeing film, a combine, a pro day and maybe a private workout. We hear how nice it is to coach at the Senior Bowl. That's a week. Hue and company had probably 20 hours max of seeing the guy live and made an assessment of him as one if the top 52 players available. Over the course of the season they will have, what, 500, 1,000 hours with the guy, even if he never plays a down?

That will have to be enough to make an assessment as to whether they finally shoot their wad next draft or not. But you have have to love the front office for having a wad to shoot.

Kizer's draft slot suggests about a 16% chance of success. I think he (or Kessler) would have to look pretty darn impressive to not make a play for a QB next year, if the class is impressive.

By taking Kizer, Sashi can conduct himself as someone not departed for a quarterback next year, which will improve his bargaining position. But they way it goes, there will always be demand for a legit QB prospect and unless we're drafting first overall, he's going to have to give up a ton of his hard-earned picks to get that guy.

 

[natedagg]

I think the draft of Kizer at 52 means that my thesis of Kessler being on a trajectory to become a good starting QB is looking shaky.

It could be the concussions.
It could be some sort of probability/statistics calculation that says in these situations, the potential outcome in 3 years is better than the opportunity cost of making any other pick on the players there at 52.
It could be that they had Kizer very high on their big board, and the new regime's motto is to expect failure out of every draft pick in the 2nd round and beyond (such as Kessler) because that's the most probable outcome.

Or it could be that Kessler isn't as relatively good as I was giving him credit for. For a rookie to get thrown into the fire so early behind that line with those young receivers, I thought he had a good year. I also respect his work ethic and expect him to come in and play much better. However, it's looking like I could be wrong, which isn't surprising because I don't watch the games.

 

[Douglar]

I think the draft of Kizer at 52 means that my thesis of Kessler being on a trajectory to become a good starting QB is looking shaky.

Kessler seems like he's still got a decent chance to be a quality QB in the NFL. He certainly outperformed my expectations, but he's not a proven starting QB. Even though he's raised his perceived ceiling quite a bit, it still seems to me like he's still got less than a 50-50 chance at becoming a quality NFL QB. That's just how it is. It's hard to be a starting QB.

With that the case, it really makes sense for the Browns to add another QB prospect in the draft that has an appropriate Risk/Reward without blowing all of their future draft capital. If we are at the same place at this point next year, maybe their will be some prospects that will make "smashing the piggybank" seem reasonable.

Emptying the bank account to get Mahomes? Mortgaging the farm to get Trubisky? Both moves have the potential to be really expensive mistakes, especially with all of the other holes on this roster. Kizer at the at the 52 pick? Sounds great good to me.

 

[natedagg]

Kessler seems like he's still got a decent chance to be a quality QB in the NFL. He certainly outperformed my expectations, but he's not a proven starting QB. Even though he's raised his perceived ceiling quite a bit, it still seems to me like he's still got less than a 50-50 chance at becoming a quality NFL QB. That's just how it is. It's hard to be a starting QB.

With that the case, it really makes sense for the Browns to add another QB prospect in the draft that has an appropriate Risk/Reward without blowing all of their future draft capital. If we are at the same place at this point next year, maybe their will be some prospects that will make "smashing the piggybank" seem reasonable.

Emptying the bank account to get Mahomes? Mortgaging the farm to get Trubisky? Both moves have the potential to be really expensive mistakes, especially with all of the other holes on this roster. Kizer at the at the 52 pick? Sounds great good to me.

Agree but there was a ton of talent on the board at 52. The best way to probably look at it is something like
probability of Kessler not becoming a quality NFL QB: 60%. For Kizer, it's 80%. Therefor, the odds that we've "solved" the QB position sometime in the future with players on our roster is over 50%. You can toggle the numbers to suit your own thoughts, but simplistically, that's our hope, and if Kessler is the guy, maybe we turn Kizer into 2nd day draft pick.

 

[Douglar]

http://texanswire.usatoday.com/2017/05/01/what-signing-brock-osweiler-ultimately-cost-the-texans/

By now it’s well established the Houston Texans made a huge mistake by signing free agent quarterback Brock Osweiler. Within one year of his signing, dreadful play and a lousy attitude in the locker room forced the Texans to ship Osweiler and a second-round pick to Cleveland in what was essentially an NBA-style cap relief trade.

While nobody feels too badly for Osweiler, who will get $37 million guaranteed whether he takes a snap for the Browns or not, the ramifications for the Texans’ big mistake could haunt the franchise for many years to come.

Admitting a Mistake
Osweiler’s disastrous decision-making and inability to go through progressions ultimately led to him benched. After an alleged locker room blow-up with head coach Bill O’Brien about re-entering a game, it was clear the Texans would have to make a permanent quarterback change.

After finishing next-to-last in the NFL in quarterback rating and armed with an albatross of a contract, there was little hope of the Texans making a traditional trade to rid themselves of Brock Osweiler.​

 

[Douglar]

http://www.cleveland.com/pluto/index.ssf/2017/05/cleveland_browns_scribbles_my.html

1. From the moment the Browns traded for Brock Osweiler, I was almost begging the Browns not to simply dismiss him from quarterback consideration. I never believed the reports the Browns immediately planned to cut Osweiler. That would have been paying $16 million (Osweiler's salary) for a 2018 second-round pick from the Houston Texans.

2. The point of the trade with Houston was to add the draft pick. But on a quarterback-deprived team entering into what was considered a quarterback-poor draft, Osweiler has value. I thought so back then, and it's nice to hear the Browns coming around to that point.

3. The Browns are now talking about Osweiler competing with Cody Kessler to start. Kessler will probably open the minicamps as the starter. That's OK. Osweiler is No. 2. Rookie DeShone Kizer is No. 3. They also have Kevin Hogan.

4. Assuming the quarterback situation remains the same, Kessler and Osweiler will probably both start games. Kessler played in eight games last season and suffered two concussions. What are the odds of him staying healthy for a full season?

5. Why is Osweiler considered such a damaged quarterback property? The analytics stats hate him. Profootballfocus ranked him No. 32 among quarterbacks in 2016. Football Outsiders ranks him 33rd out of 34 quarterbacks -- only rookie Jared Goff was worse.

6. Football outsiders ranks Kessler (24) ahead of Carson Wentz (27). The reason? The analytics heavily penalize quarterbacks for interceptions and low completion percentage. Kessler completed 66 percent of his passes, 6 TDs compared to 2 interceptions. Wentz competed 62 percent, 16 TDs compared to 14 interceptions.

7. Profootball focus rated Wentz (21), Kessler (22) well ahead of Osweiler (32). The only quarterbacks PFF had behind Osweiler were Blaine Gabbert and Goff.

8. Osweiler completed 59 percent of his passes for Houston in 2016, 15 TDs compared to a league-high 16 interceptions. Houston was 8-6 when he started, but he had a bad year. His confidence was shaky, the coaching staff had major doubts about him.

9. But in 2015, Osweiler was 5-2 as a starter with Denver. He threw 10 TD passes compared to six interceptions, completing 62 percent of his passes. Football Outsiders ranked him No. 21. PFF ranked him No. 20 and wrote: "Osweiler had some positive moments in his first extended action as starter, finishing right in the middle in accuracy (18th of 37 qualifiers).

10. After the 2015 season, Denver offered Osweiler a contract with $30 million guaranteed. He went to Houston for a deal that guaranteed him $38 million. His season with the Texans was a nightmare.

11. But I kept thinking Osweiler's performance is somewhere between the mess in Houston (2016) and the promise in Denver (2015) that led to all the irrational offers he received in free agency.

12. The desperate Texans have made two quarterback trades with the Browns. They now have rookie Deshaun Watson as their starting quarterback. They have sent Osweiler to the Browns, along with a 2018 first-round pick and a 2018 second-round pick. Houston also added a fourth-round pick in 2017.

13. One of the reasons I like Osweiler is his durability. He was healthy for seven starts (filling in for Peyton Manning in 2015) with Denver. He started 14 games for Houston in 2016. He was benched for the other two games. The Browns have not been able to keep a quarterback reasonably healthy most seasons since they've returned in 1999.

14. I'm more than content to let Hue Jackson figure out the Kessler/Osweiler question when it comes to who should start. Kessler had some nice moments in a few games early in the season before he suffered his first concussion. My concern is his lack of arm strength and durability. But I like his poise and accuracy.

15. All of this Kessler/Osweiler talk is a way of hoping the Browns keep DeShone Kizer on the bench, at least early in the season. He has some mechanical issues with his throwing motion, and mentioned Jackson has already offered some suggestions. No reason to rush the second-round pick. Let the Browns work with the two veterans.​

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I think the decision to take Kizer was a simple one.... he was the best player available on their board at 52 and he wasn't at 25 or 29. I don't think it's in any way rooted in some type of quarterback indecision/lack of a master plan.

Well, I'm not sure we take him if we have Luck and Kessler on the roster already.

http://texanswire.usatoday.com/2017/05/01/what-signing-brock-osweiler-ultimately-cost-the-texans/

By now it’s well established the Houston Texans made a huge mistake by signing free agent quarterback Brock Osweiler. Within one year of his signing, dreadful play and a lousy attitude in the locker room forced the Texans to ship Osweiler and a second-round pick to Cleveland in what was essentially an NBA-style cap relief trade.

While nobody feels too badly for Osweiler, who will get $37 million guaranteed whether he takes a snap for the Browns or not, the ramifications for the Texans’ big mistake could haunt the franchise for many years to come.

Admitting a Mistake
Osweiler’s disastrous decision-making and inability to go through progressions ultimately led to him benched. After an alleged locker room blow-up with head coach Bill O’Brien about re-entering a game, it was clear the Texans would have to make a permanent quarterback change.

After finishing next-to-last in the NFL in quarterback rating and armed with an albatross of a contract, there was little hope of the Texans making a traditional trade to rid themselves of Brock Osweiler.​

After we traded down, I was listening to some moron on WKNR saying how we obviously made a mistake because a "successful" franchise like Houston saw fit to trade-up for Watkins, which means we obviously screwed up by trading down. And I thought "but this is the team that is such a poor judge of QB's that they had to give away a second round pick to get rid of a guy they'd signed to a huge contract only a year ago."

I think it actually goes further than that. The fact that they so badly misjudged Osweiler leads me to doubt not only their ability to select QB's, but their ability to develop them as well. So to some extent, I'm not going to put a lot of faith in his experience with Houston last year.

 

[Jack Brickman]

After we traded down, I was listening to some moron on WKNR saying how we obviously made a mistake because a "successful" franchise like Houston saw fit to trade-up for Watkins, which means we obviously screwed up by trading down. And I thought "but this is the team that is such a poor judge of QB's that they had to give away a second round pick to get rid of a guy they'd signed to a huge contract only a year ago."

I think it actually goes further than that. The fact that they so badly misjudged Osweiler leads me to doubt not only their ability to select QB's, but their ability to develop them as well. So to some extent, I'm not going to put a lot of faith in his experience with Houston last year.

Their inability to judge QBs cost them both their first and second round pick next year, which is a very high price to pay for one fuck-up. And if Watson bombs, they'll have no picks with which to remedy the situation next draft.