Cleveland Browns Quarterback Position

[jlegg21]

IMO, if you can get a league average QB for the 33rd pick in the draft, you grab it and count yourself lucky. Don't know whether Garappolo reasonable projects as that or not, but if he does, that's a great deal.

That's your "Browns fan desperate for anything" talking... no, Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson in the 3rd round is a great deal. The 33rd pick should be an impact guy, a stud LB or Safety. A reliable pass catching TE.

No, trading high picks for a league average QB when your roster is full of holes is how you get what we've already gotten. Dont settle for that.

I'll say it again. Draft our Brady, Rodgers, etc. Do your jobs, or lose them. It's what a FO is paid to do, now do it.

 

[Otsego Mar]

That's your "Browns fan desperate for anything" talking... no, Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson in the 3rd round is a great deal. The 33rd pick should be an impact guy, a stud LB or Safety. A reliable pass catching TE.

No, trading high picks for a league average QB when your roster is full of holes is how you get what we've already gotten. Dont settle for that.

I'll say it again. Draft our Brady, Rodgers, etc. Do your jobs, or lose them. It's what a FO is paid to do, now do it.

How did you come to the conclusion that Garoppolo is a league average QB?

Could he be our Rodgers?

 

[Lee]

Five years? That is a hyperbole for sure. Yes Mahomes is a bit of a project, although he has more experience than Trubisky, but I am sure he will be ready to at least take snaps by year 2. You can easily argue Mahomes has the best combo of arm talent, size and mobility in the entire group. Is he a risk? Could he bust? Yes. But none of the qbs in this years draft are top notch prospects or for sure top 20 NFL starting qbs. It is not out of the question at all that Mahomes ends up being the best of the bunch.


Very few on this board were high on Dak at the this time last year and tha was BEFORE the DUI. Looking back we probably underestimated his arm talent and mobility and quick decision making.
How many people here were screaming for the Browns to take Carr?

I am not saying Mahomes is Carr. I am saying he is def worth a deep investigation and real consideration in the second round, which is his most likely landing spot.

I dont think there is any argument that he is the best combo of arm talent, size and mobility.

His only issue is being a system qb and reading the pro offense, but he is as talented as Aaron Rogers as far as arm talent and mobility goes.

And i want to be clear, not saying he is the next Aaron Rogers, just pointing out how incredible his metrics are thus making him such an interesting prospect.

 

[Randolphkeys]

IMO, if you can get a league average QB for the 33rd pick in the draft, you grab it and count yourself lucky. Don't know whether Garappolo reasonable projects as that or not, but if he does, that's a great deal.

The Browns can get a solid starter at #33, but it's very rare to find a starting level quarterback right out of the gate in the top of the second round. Garoppolo's value will likely be higher than that pick because teams pay a higher premium for starting level quarterbacks. I'm surprised we have spent a page on the subject.

 

[jlegg21]

How did you come to the conclusion that Garoppolo is a league average QB?

Could he be our Rodgers?

I was responding to the poster who said he would trade 33 for a league average QB and count himself lucky. I believe that's what bad franchises do.

I've said this already in this thread, but if Jimmy is a franchise QB/Rodgers in the making, why would New England trade him at all? Brady is 40 years old, and as much as we want to pretend the Patriots organization isnt thinking about life after Brady, I guarantee they have a plan for that. If it's to cash in Jimmy instead of keep him, isnt that a red flag from a franchise that always makes the right move?

Add in the fact that we're up to about a half dozen teams who've shown interest if Jimmy were to hit the market, and his price is going to be WAY higher than just a 2nd rounder or even two. The price for the Browns probably starts at pick 12.

I want what Dallas, Seattle, Tennessee and several other contenders have. A budding franchise QB that they scouted, drafted, and control for the first 3-4 years of their career. It's time for the Browns to finally, for once, do this right and if they dont, they should be held accountable for their failure.

 

[AZ_]

I've said this already in this thread, but if Jimmy is a franchise QB/Rodgers in the making, why would New England trade him at all? Brady is 40 years old, and as much as we want to pretend the Patriots organization isnt thinking about life after Brady, I guarantee they have a plan for that. If it's to cash in Jimmy instead of keep him, isnt that a red flag from a franchise that always makes the right move?

Capitalizing on an asset they can't afford to keep if Brady plays 2-3 more seasons.

Also, Belichick is the de facto controller of the 53 and he's just as likely to retire w/ Brady. If he sees the opportunity to trade a future asset like JG that he won't be able to use, he's likely to do it.

Add in the fact that we're up to about a half dozen teams who've shown interest if Jimmy were to hit the market, and his price is going to be WAY higher than just a 2nd rounder or even two. The price for the Browns probably starts at pick 12.

This is speculative and likely not true. Just because a number of teams are interested does not mean a bidding war is certain. The league places a value on players, and if someone is going to go way beyond that value to land him they may just do that, but few teams can offer what Cleveland can.

I want what Dallas, Seattle, Tennessee and several other contenders have. A budding franchise QB that they scouted, drafted, and control for the first 3-4 years of their career. It's time for the Browns to finally, for once, do this right and if they dont, they should be held accountable for their failure.

So, Kessler?

Eh, QBs can come from anywhere. If you've scouted said player and have team control over him than it's a worthwhile expenditure to make.

JG has alot of talent and certainly has learned from the system he's been placed in over the first few years of his career.

If you have the chance to put him with an offensive mind like Hue Jackson who can coach to his strengths, you've got a damn good chance to succeed with a move like that.


I'm on board for your way, or this way. Just don't see the opposition argument here. Either way is fine for me, if they reach the end goal I don't really give a shit how it was accomplished.

 

[Soda]

There are 3 primary teams who will bid against each other for JG, most likely. San Fran, Chicago, and Cleveland. That is assuming the Browns come away impressed enough by the tape on JG. A 4th team may jump-in if the bidding stays low, but I don't expect it.

 

[CleveRocks]

I am no expert at this. But I don't see any reason to buy a maybe adequate quarterback and thenot watch him get sacked 5 times a game until he goes on the il..

To me it makes more sense to go to work on the o-line with your rehab QB.. then look for your star qb.. I like Lagow coming out in 2018. Saw him live against OSU, and he had that look about him.

 

[jlegg21]

Capitalizing on an asset they can't afford to keep if Brady plays 2-3 more seasons.

Also, Belichick is the de facto controller of the 53 and he's just as likely to retire w/ Brady. If he sees the opportunity to trade a future asset like JG that he won't be able to use, he's likely to do it.





This is speculative and likely not true. Just because a number of teams are interested does not mean a bidding war is certain. The league places a value on players, and if someone is going to go way beyond that value to land him they may just do that, but few teams can offer what Cleveland can.




So, Kessler?

Eh, QBs can come from anywhere. If you've scouted said player and have team control over him than it's a worthwhile expenditure to make.

JG has alot of talent and certainly has learned from the system he's been placed in over the first few years of his career.

If you have the chance to put him with an offensive mind like Hue Jackson who can coach to his strengths, you've got a damn good chance to succeed with a move like that.


I'm on board for your way, or this way. Just don't see the opposition argument here. Either way is fine for me, if they reach the end goal I don't really give a shit how it was accomplished.

All quality points, and I actually like Jimmy more than any other QB on the market by a wide margin. As I've stated previously, it's his cost (and dealing with the Patriots) I dont like, especially if Chicago and SF decide to go hard after him.

So I wont take your last statement too literally and ask you this. What is your best offer for him? 12 and a conditional 2 next year?

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

That's your "Browns fan desperate for anything" talking... no, Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson in the 3rd round is a great deal.

No, that's my "awareness of the percentage chance of finding a starter at a given draft position" talking. There's been a bunch of stuff written on that -- here's one example:

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

The odds of getting a consistent starter in the second round of the NFL draft is over 50% for only two positions -- OL and TE. Everything else is 50% or under. You thinking that a #33 pick is a lock to be an impact player is a fantasy. Sure, it's possible. But it also is possible Lemme guess -- you spend about $50/week on instant lottery tickets, don't you? that the guy you take at #33 will be either a bust, or a middling guy at a much less value position. Your logic is the same logic that drives poor people to spend $50/week buying instant lottery tickets.

To continue with the numbers, the chances of obtaining a consistent starting QB in the second round are only 27%. Even if you take a QB in the first round, the chance of getting a consistent starter is only 63%. We're talking about the first pick in the second round -- dead midpoint of the first two rounds -- so let's average it. That means a QB drafted at No. 33 should have only a 45% chance of becoming a consistent NFL starter.

So, if you're telling me that I can trade that less than 45% chance for a guy who will be the 16th best QB in the league, I'd grab that in a heartbeat. The great thing about that is you haven't spent so much on him that you have to live or die with the guy. If you have an opportunity down the road to upgrade, you do it, and trade your "average starter" for more than you gave up to get him.

 

[CosmoKramer]

So, if you're telling me that I can trade that less than 45% chance for a guy who will be the 16th best QB in the league, I'd grab that in a heartbeat. The great thing about that is you haven't spent so much on him that you have to live or die with the guy. If you have an opportunity down the road to upgrade, you do it, and trade your "average starter" for more than you gave up to get him.

There's no chance Garoppolo is already one of the best 16 QBs in the league, let alone one of the best 20. "Average starter" is best case scenario for him, not a floor.

Honestly, I can't believe how crazy high fans think his value is. Garoppolo lasted all of 6 quarters as a starter before he was injured, why is everyone so confident he'll be less injury prone as a Brown?

 

[Randolphkeys]

There's no chance Garoppolo is already one of the best 16 QBs in the league, let alone one of the best 20. "Average starter" is best case scenario for him, not a floor.

Honestly, I can't believe how crazy high fans think his value is. Garoppolo lasted all of 6 quarters as a starter before he was injured, why is everyone so confident he'll be less injury prone as a Brown?

It sounds like you have done zero research on Garoppolo so I'll help you out.

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-englan...-that-hurt-like-hell-jimmy-garoppolo-reflects

Zero injuries in four years starting in college, zero injuries in his pro career until getting sacked directly into his throwing shoulder causing a sprain/separation, was healthy enough to return to the field two weeks later but was held out as a precaution. He played mop up against the Browns three Sundays removed from the injury.

There's no serious injury history.

 

[jlegg21]

No, that's my "awareness of the percentage chance of finding a starter at a given draft position" talking. There's been a bunch of stuff written on that -- here's one example:

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

The odds of getting a consistent starter in the second round of the NFL draft is over 50% for only two positions -- OL and TE. Everything else is 50% or under. You thinking that a #33 pick is a lock to be an impact player is a fantasy. Sure, it's possible. But it also is possible Lemme guess -- you spend about $50/week on instant lottery tickets, don't you? that the guy you take at #33 will be either a bust, or a middling guy at a much less value position. Your logic is the same logic that drives poor people to spend $50/week buying instant lottery tickets.

To continue with the numbers, the chances of obtaining a consistent starting QB in the second round are only 27%. Even if you take a QB in the first round, the chance of getting a consistent starter is only 63%. We're talking about the first pick in the second round -- dead midpoint of the first two rounds -- so let's average it. That means a QB drafted at No. 33 should have only a 45% chance of becoming a consistent NFL starter.

So, if you're telling me that I can trade that less than 45% chance for a guy who will be the 16th best QB in the league, I'd grab that in a heartbeat. The great thing about that is you haven't spent so much on him that you have to live or die with the guy. If you have an opportunity down the road to upgrade, you do it, and trade your "average starter" for more than you gave up to get him.

So... I've never bought a lottery ticket in my life, seems like a wild comparison to the NFL draft, at best.

Your stats are all well and good, but somehow in spite of your long odds, good teams in this league manage to find really good players in the 2nd round. All the time. I'm asking the Browns to do that for once, and if they cant, find someone else who can.

And even if your loose guesstimate that Jimmy is a middle of the road starter is correct, why pay a premium for that? You're settling for middle of the road, which is why I guessed that all the bottom feeding the Browns have done for so long is affecting your viewpoint, that's all. If they do trade a ransom for him, he'd better be closer to the top half of the league, no?

A wise man once told me to never negotiate from a desperate position*. I'll go ahead and add to that... *with the Patriots.

 

[CosmoKramer]

There's no serious injury history.

He might not have a lengthy injury history, yet he couldn't make it through the first two games he was asked to start in his career.

I also think it's hilarious the ESPN hype machine literally started talking about his trade value in that column... in September.

 

[Randolphkeys]

He might not have a lengthy injury history, yet he couldn't make it through the first two games he was asked to start in his career

The basis of your "injury prone" label is one week.