Cleveland Indians 2018-2019 Offseason Outlook

[AZ_]

I didn't say that Kluber would theoretically suck in '19 because he was miserable the past 2 years; he was utterly dominant in '16 and that certainly didn't carry over into '17 and '18.

I was using the logic that many in this thread abide by (and which the Indians are evidently using by exploring the option) that if a retool is necessary, Kluber makes a lot of sense, for various reasons that several posters have already enumerated.

If you're conceding that Kluber was "bad" in '17 and '18 (huge gasp), then you're actually agreeing with ONE of the points I made in my previous post. I made zero correlations to Kluber's previous starts and a hypothetical '19 scenario. Nestled somewhere in that post is a remark I made about wanting to keep him, go back and try to find it.

Hard pass, thanks.

The "Kluber sucks in the playoffs" angle has been babbled about around here from more people than just you. That's why you weren't quoted.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Can anyone make an actual case that bad starts in 2017 and 2018 would be indicative of bad postseason starts in 2019?

No? Okay, didn’t think so.

Obviously not but seeing Kluber's velocity charts would certainly intimate it's maybe more likely than past years.

His four seam, cutter and slider velocity are all starting to dip considerably......so it's a tougher assessment IMO. Will he still be an elite pitcher without his upper range pop from 2016? Maybe.....but we could be seeing the correct window to move him too.

I think it's a really tough decision.......one that doesn't have an obvious answer as to what is right or wrong for the franchise. I lean towards dealing him in the right package, only because I view the Indians realistic championship window 2 years out. The roster needs retooled and what is Kluber 2 years from now? vs. someone like Andujar? Or whatever other young position player we can get back?

 

[bob2the2nd]

LeBron didn't look mediocre in consecutive postseasons (and this comes from someone who loves Kluber on this team)

Kluber has now finished in the top 3 cy young voting in 4 of the last 5 years.

Taking very small sample sizes (especially this year), is dangerous. he has had 10 bad innings in the last 2 years. After absolutely dominating in 2016 over 34 innings.

Personally i think trading him is a mistake, but thinking about trading him to the yankees is ridiculous. If you trade him you trade him out of the AL.

 

[Alpoe]

Obviously not but seeing Kluber's velocity charts would certainly intimate it's maybe more likely than past years.

His four seam, cutter and slider velocity are all starting to dip considerably......so it's a tougher assessment IMO. Will he still be an elite pitcher without his upper range pop from 2016? Maybe.....but we could be seeing the correct window to move him too.

I think it's a really tough decision.......one that doesn't have an obvious answer as to what is right or wrong for the franchise. I lean towards dealing him in the right package, only because I view the Indians realistic championship window 2 years out. The roster needs retooled and what is Kluber 2 years from now? vs. someone like Andujar? Or whatever other young position player we can get back?

You have to trade one of the top 3 this yr if want to compete for a championship. You stay pat and get wiped out in the playoffs, that's one less year of Bauer, Carrasco and Lindor. Those 3 are gone for sure in 3 years, with Bauer and Carrasco gone by 2020.

I don't see this as a difficult decision at all. We have too many holes on the team to fill via free agency,and I don't think the farm is stocked with guys ready to contribute this yr. If they trade Kluber for a good package and you don't win it or go past the first rd, you then could trade Bauer or Carrasco next winter for prospects, or bring them back and give it a go in 20 with the trade deadline a fall back option to unload them if they aren't contending.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Kluber has now finished in the top 3 cy young voting in 4 of the last 5 years.

Taking very small sample sizes (especially this year), is dangerous. he has had 10 bad innings in the last 2 years. After absolutely dominating in 2016 over 34 innings.

Personally i think trading him is a mistake, but thinking about trading him to the yankees is ridiculous. If you trade him you trade him out of the AL.

Blanket stats like the above can also be dangerous when assessing the cliff for a pitcher though.

Things that are concerning to me about Kulber:

Velocity: Dip across the board for all his hard pitches
Hard %: Took a big jump in 2018 (+6.4%)
Pull %: Moderate jump (3%)
Opp %: Small dip (1.3%)
K/9: T-Lowest in 5 years

So hitters are hitting him a bit harder, pulling more often (velo, possibly location) and not having to go opposite field as much (velo, possibly location).

Hard % is really the eye popping stat when you look at his career marks. He's only been above 30% one time in his career (2017) and that was just barely over at 30.2%. 36.6% is a massive jump and way beyond the bounds of an ace level number.

He did mitigate some of this stuff with an extremely low walk rate but they are still blips on his chart. I don't know what happens next year but there are small cracks in the armor for him. Entirely possible he bounces back on some of these items but there are small things that would lead you to believe this COULD be the right time to move him. Prior to this year, I would not have said that but you see some 3 years trends that are bouncing downward.

 

[bob2the2nd]

Blanket stats like the above can also be dangerous when assessing the cliff for a pitcher though.

Things that are concerning to me about Kulber:

Velocity: Dip across the board for all his hard pitches
Hard %: Took a big jump in 2018 (+6.4%)
Pull %: Moderate jump (3%)
Opp %: Small dip (1.3%)
K/9: T-Lowest in 5 years

So hitters are hitting him a bit harder, pulling more often (velo, possibly location) and not having to go opposite field as much (velo, possibly location).

Hard % is really the eye popping stat when you look at his career marks. He's only been above 30% one time in his career (2017) and that was just barely over at 30.2%. 36.6% is a massive jump and way beyond the bounds of an ace level number.

He did mitigate some of this stuff with an extremely low walk rate but they are still blips on his chart. I don't know what happens next year but there are small cracks in the armor for him. Entirely possible he bounces back on some of these items but there are small things that would lead you to believe this COULD be the right time to move him. Prior to this year, I would not have said that but you see some 3 years trends that are bouncing downward.

the dude won the cy Young last year and finished 7th in the MVP. By every measure known to man he had a great year (expect the playoffs). This year his numbers slipped just a little bit, but is still an absolutely dominate pitcher. Is there some cause for concern that this could be the start of a downward trend, absolutely. But to try to use a small slip in some numbers as a justification to trade him, i think is a bit disingenuous.

The guy has one of the most team friendly deals of any player in baseball for the next 3 years. If the indians have decided to hit the reset button i totally understand trying to maximize his value. However the indians should be trying to extend this window as long as possible. Not closing it prematurely.

 

[bushwick_bill]

Trading Kluber is not closing the window but extending it for the right haul of younger talent that fills the holes of this team.

the dude won the cy Young last year and finished 7th in the MVP. By every measure known to man he had a great year (expect the playoffs). This year his numbers slipped just a little bit, but is still an absolutely dominate pitcher. Is there some cause for concern that this could be the start of a downward trend, absolutely. But to try to use a small slip in some numbers as a justification to trade him, i think is a bit disingenuous.

The guy has one of the most team friendly deals of any player in baseball for the next 3 years. If the indians have decided to hit the reset button i totally understand trying to maximize his value. However the indians should be trying to extend this window as long as possible. Not closing it prematurely.

 

[Alpoe]

the dude won the cy Young last year and finished 7th in the MVP. By every measure known to man he had a great year (expect the playoffs). This year his numbers slipped just a little bit, but is still an absolutely dominate pitcher. Is there some cause for concern that this could be the start of a downward trend, absolutely. But to try to use a small slip in some numbers as a justification to trade him, i think is a bit disingenuous.

The guy has one of the most team friendly deals of any player in baseball for the next 3 years. If the indians have decided to hit the reset button i totally understand trying to maximize his value. However the indians should be trying to extend this window as long as possible. Not closing it prematurely.

if we had a 200 million payroll, no one would be talking about trading Kluber. The sox or Yankees don't trade their stars hardly ever. They just go out and spend if needed to fill their holes. We don't have that luxury and thus are at a huge competitive disadvantage. Who wouldn't want a 200+ payroll? The economics of baseball is the only reason this is even thought of.

If we don't trade one of our pitchers, what options do we have to realistically compete with New York or Boston? Grab a bunch of guys on 1 yr deals on the cheap hoping they still have something left? Are you willing to trade Mckenzie?

 

[Steve_424]

Let's call it like it is, Kluber wasn't "mediocre" the last two postseasons....he was downright embarrassing, arguably the worst starter in the playoffs.

I still love the guy though and concede that his '16 run was absolute filth. I'd rather keep him but the fact is that the Indians can't stand pat; they need to make moves and Kluber probably makes the most sense. I would make attaching Kipnis a condition of any Kluber trade, though.

G1 2017: 2.2 IP, 6 ER
G5 2017: 3.2 IP, 3 ER
G1 2018: 4.2 IP, 4 ER

The first start was awful, but the 2nd two are what I'd qualify as mediocre in the postseason. He's certainly not the worst SP in the playoffs. I also think it was clear he wasn't 100% in 2017.

 

[Ohio]

G1 2017: 2.2 IP, 6 ER
G5 2017: 3.2 IP, 3 ER
G1 2018: 4.2 IP, 4 ER

The first start was awful, but the 2nd two are what I'd qualify as mediocre in the postseason. He's certainly not the worst SP in the playoffs. I also think it was clear he wasn't 100% in 2017.

An ERA of 9 is not mediocre, it is bad.

 

[I'mWithDan]

the dude won the cy Young last year and finished 7th in the MVP. By every measure known to man he had a great year (expect the playoffs). This year his numbers slipped just a little bit, but is still an absolutely dominate pitcher. Is there some cause for concern that this could be the start of a downward trend, absolutely. But to try to use a small slip in some numbers as a justification to trade him, i think is a bit disingenuous.

The guy has one of the most team friendly deals of any player in baseball for the next 3 years. If the indians have decided to hit the reset button i totally understand trying to maximize his value. However the indians should be trying to extend this window as long as possible. Not closing it prematurely.

By what measure are we in a championship window? That is my point here.

We need to be looking a few years down the road with the age of our nucleus. We can’t realistically compete against Boston, Houston and New York as our roster is currently constructed. We have to retool.

The way you extend the window is by making a trade, that 2 years from now, has difference making potential.

This notion that we have some window open (now) is incredibly silly to me. We are in an awful division, so we have a path to the playoffs but we are just not a championship level team. If the goal is just to cruise to the playoffs and get toasted, then aim for incremental improvement. If the goal is to win the World Series, we need an eye on the near term future and how we separate from the pack as our key guys hit their primes.

 

[Steve_424]

An ERA of 9 is not mediocre, it is bad.

He didn't have a 9 ERA in the starts I said were mediocre (not that it matters)

 

[sportscoach]

the dude won the cy Young last year and finished 7th in the MVP. By every measure known to man he had a great year (expect the playoffs). This year his numbers slipped just a little bit, but is still an absolutely dominate pitcher. Is there some cause for concern that this could be the start of a downward trend, absolutely. But to try to use a small slip in some numbers as a justification to trade him, i think is a bit disingenuous.

The guy has one of the most team friendly deals of any player in baseball for the next 3 years. If the indians have decided to hit the reset button i totally understand trying to maximize his value. However the indians should be trying to extend this window as long as possible. Not closing it prematurely.

It also depends on the type of players we get back for him as well. We aren't saying trade Kluber to trade him but if we can get the same level of WAR if not higher back in a sense then it would be worth doing especially if it makes us stronger long term as a team.

In a sense, I feel if we do the trade with like Oakland and get an Olson/Chapman back in the deal, that just makes our hitting way better, plus would likely make some cap space to sign a guy like Marwin to fill in another need. We can always find a 5th starter between the guys coming back from injury and the fact we have a good track record of reviving players careers often times. I get Kluber is a very good pitcher, and would have been a hall of famer if he wasn't a late bloomer.

If the teams don't match what we want, we have no reason to trade him either, so don't expect us to trade him unless we get a really good deal, which ends up being 1-2 mlb experienced guys under 25 who have potential, plus a couple in their top 5 prospects and likely someone else who can play now/a lower prospect thats at AAA type of thing who could be a depth piece like Erik was for us.

 

[Steve_424]

View: https://twitter.com/MLBastian/status/1063544160068796417?s=19


I'll miss Jordan's work. Coverage of the Indians is going to be pretty rough if his replacement isn't a really good one...

 

[Stark]

Bastian was phenomenal and great with the fans too. Bummer that he's gone.