Collin Sexton | The Young Bull

[CBBI]

Weird to leave out Sexton's 27.8% AST% as an 18/19 year old NCAA freshman...right? Very similarly to Harden, and in contrast with the others, he came into the NBA fairly young, and as a result was not a primary ballhandler right away, and saw his assist percentage drop. But I think it's reasonable to believe that with more experience, and given the opportunity to run the offense, he could in time be a ~30% AST% guy again. Again, not guaranteeing it, just saying it's on the spectrum of realistic outcomes.

Agree with what you're saying about Nance, fwiw.

Oh absolutely it's possible for Sexton to develop into a very good playmaker. We've seen guys like Russell and Booker this decade make 15-20% gains in AST% before their rookie contracts ended, so it's not unprecedented whatsoever.

I just feel like there are factors working against him.

The biggest one specifically being Garland's presence on the roster. I believe Garland will end up being on the ball quite a bit more than Sexton will. Collin, perhaps to his overall developmental detriment, be given more of a "go score" focus.

I know they're talking about them being dueling point guards, but I have a suspicion that Garland's going to be the PG and Sexton's going to be the SG for all intents and purposes.

The other thing that I've noticed is that outside of Devin Booker (who is obviously a SG by trade), most of the guys who made massive AST% gains this century within their first few years, guys like D-Wade and Deron Williams among them, started out with a much higher playmaking base from an AST% perspective than Sexton showed in Year 1.

 

[Nathan S]

Oh absolutely it's possible for Sexton to develop into a very good playmaker. We've seen guys like Russell and Booker this decade make 15-20% gains in AST% before their rookie contracts ended, so it's not unprecedented whatsoever.

I just feel like there are factors working against him.

The biggest one specifically being Garland's presence on the roster. I believe Garland will end up being on the ball quite a bit more than Sexton will. Collin, perhaps to his overall developmental detriment, be given more of a "go score" focus.

I know they're talking about them being dueling point guards, but I have a suspicion that Garland's going to be the PG and Sexton's going to be the SG for all intents and purposes.

The other thing that I've noticed is that outside of Devin Booker (who is obviously a SG by trade), most of the guys who made massive AST% gains this century within their first few years, guys like D-Wade and Deron Williams among them, started out with a much higher playmaking base from an AST% perspective than Sexton showed in Year 1.

Completely agree. This is one of the major reasons why I dislike the Garland pick. Hopefully Garland's so good that it doesn't matter. Alternatively, it would be alright if he's an obvious bust and we go back to developing Sexton. Really hope he doesn't end up somewhere in between, not quite bad enough to get benched but not quite good enough to get excited about.

 

[Cavatt]

A lot of passing stats here: https://stats.nba.com/players/passing/

Passes Per Game
Potential Assists
Assist to Pass Ratio

Stuff like that.



Sexton’s playmaking certainly didn’t elevate when he got moved into more of a timeshare/off the ball role once Knight got into the starting lineup.

Sexton without Knight: 15.9 AST%
Sexton with Knight: 15.3 AST%

But Knight’s AST% during that same stretch as a starter was only 14.3% so it wasn’t like he took on some crazy playmaking burden. He just brought the ball up sometimes and initiated some of the sets.

One thing that I’ll never really understand is why Nance became a whipping boy for trying to expand his game during a throwaway season. The Cavs won less than 20 games. That is literally the perfect scenario for a guy like Nance to try new things because there’s no real harm if ends up not being able to do them effectively. He started taking 3s for the first time (20.5% of his shots compared to about 5% before he got here) and he started making plays for other people without dramatically upping his usage. These are both good developments! Yet people were somehow angry and frustrated with Nance all year for freezing Sexton out? Don’t understand that.

I wouldn’t say Sexton had an “all time” rookie year by any means. He shot the ball very well and starting adjusting his shot selection as the year went on which was great to see, but he was a bad passer and an absolutely miserable defender all year.

The shooting is certainly encouraging and there’s plenty of reasons to be optimistic, but we don’t need to over sell what he actually accomplished either.

And I say again, the bad teammates thing really doesn’t hold water for me because Delly literally doubled Sexton’s assist rate with the same poor teammates and two legitimate scrubs in Payne and Harrison were still able to make more plays than Sexton too and neither of those guys can play dead.

It wasn't that Nance was playing PG, it was that he would use all 8 seconds after a rebound to get it up the court, would never pass it ahead after the rebound, and then would hold it for 6-7 more seconds before someone had to put up a prayer off cuts. It was bad basketball despite the assists. Get the ball moving dude. Nance was clearly assist hunting. I really don't mind him playmaking, I just wish he was more opportunistic about it rather than being a pf with a weak handle dominating the ball.

The assist percentage thing is important to note, but I saw Sexton making better reads later in the year so that number is cool, but I could see him mature in his playmaking. Fine to say I am wrong, but other people saw it too. The Delly comparison is silly. Delly is no great assist man, but I can't think of better guy to get some assists from Clarkson or Dion etc. He has NBA experience and he knows what type of passes work. IF he wasn't a better assist man at 29 years old with his NBA experience than Sexton, he would be out of the league. You could also argue the bench had more NBA talent than the starters. It was definitely more stable with fewer injuries.

 

[Jordan]

No...that's not my argument. I think the logical comparison is to other players at the same age, and I think college and the NBA are comparable if we're focusing solely on demonstrated passing ability.

Sexton averaged 3.7 assists and 2.8 turnovers per 40 at the NBA level at age 19/20.

Curry averaged 3.5 assists and 3.1 turnovers per 40 at the same age in college.

Harden averaged 4.7 assists and 3.8 turnovers per 40 in college when slightly younger than Sexton, 3.2 assists and 2.4 turnovers per 40 in the NBA when slightly older than Sexton.

Kemba averaged 4.8 assists and 2.4 turnovers per 40 in college when slightly older than Sexton

Lillard averaged 4.6 assists and 3.9 turnovers per 40 in college when slightly older than Sexton


The situation would be different if Sexton had averaged, say, 2.5 assists and 3.0 turnovers per 40. In that case I would agree that it's virtually unheard of for a player to struggle so much as a passer initially and go on to become a primary ballhandler. But that's not the case...Sexton appears to be within the "normal" range for guys who go on to become primary ballhandlers. That doesn't mean he'll be as good as any of those guys, but you can't rule out the possibility on the basis of Sexton's middling assist:TO numbers.


As for Sexton's non-passing skills (on the offensive end) he's certainly shown elite potential in key areas even if he hasn't put it all together yet. In high school and in college, he was absolutely elite attacking the rim. In the NBA he struggled some attacking the rim, but did shoot 40% from 3 and 84% from the line, a rare feat for a player his age which suggests some elite shooting potential.


In summary, say Sexton needs to become good/great at all 3 of those things (passing/slashing/shooting) to be a superstar. I'd say he has about a 50% chance in each area, or a 1/8 chance to be a superstar overall. That's not great odds, but my point is that there's no "red flag" weakness holding him back.

Here are the list of NBA guards, under 6'3 and under 21 years old, that played at least 25 minutes per game and averaged under four assists:

-Daniel Gibson
-DJ Augustin
-Collin Sexton
-Brandon Knight
-Donovan Mitchell
-Chauncey Billups
-Dajuan Wagner
-Kyle Lowry
-Phil Chenier

Here are a list of guards, with the same criteria, but with an assist percentage under 25% (Sexton is at 15%).
-Daniel Gibson
-DJ Augustin
-Collin Sexton
-Steph Curry
-Mike Conley
-Brandon Knight
-Jonny Flynn
-Donovan Mitchell
-Chauncey Billups
-Tony Parker
-Dajuan Wagner
-De'Aaron Fox
-Monta Ellis
-Kyle Lowry
-Phil Chenier
-Eric Money

Same criteria as above, but only counting those who shot over 37% from three.
-Daniel Gibson
-DJ Augustin
-Collin Sexton
-Steph Curry
-Mike Conley
-Brandon Knight

Same criteria as above, but only counting those who had 20% or less assist percentage.
-Daniel Gibson
-Collin Sexton

...or with under four assists:
-Daniel Gibson
-DJ Augustin
-Collin Sexton
-Deron Williams
-Mike Conley
-Brandon Knight

And finally, here is the list if you raise the height to 6'5 and under:
-Daniel Gibson
-DJ Augustin
-Bradley Beal
-Collin Sexton
-Deron Williams
-Mike Conley
-Zach LaVine
-Eric Gordon
-Brandon Knight
-Jamal Murray
-DeAngelo Russell

Thus, given similar statistics to Sexton and a little leeway, there are twenty-one comparable players. Only Steph Curry, Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry, and Chauncey Billups had seasons with a Box Plus-Minus over 5, and out of those four, only two have done it for the team that drafted them.

So, statistically speaking, it is very unlikely Collin Sexton ever becomes anywhere close to as good of a facilitator as Steph Curry or James Harden. Is it possible? Sure. But for every Steph Curry and Mike Conley there have been eight-and-a-half players that never reached close to that level.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Weird to leave out Sexton's 27.8% AST% as an 18/19 year old NCAA freshman...right? Very similarly to Harden, and in contrast with the others, he came into the NBA fairly young, and as a result was not a primary ballhandler right away, and saw his assist percentage drop.

I agree completely with your point about people overlooking Sexton's assist % in his freshman year, and the huge drop during his first year with the Cavs. That should be the tipoff that something went wrong here.

But I don't think it dropped like that because Sexton came into the NBA fairly young. I think it dropped because we didn't really run an offense 90% of the time (per Ben), and so other players were free to take whatever role they wanted offensively rather than running the offense through the PG.

Simply put, Sexton's assist % dropped so dramatically from college because he wasn't put into a true PG role with the Cavs. We asked a rookie his to find his way as a distributor basically on his own, without a roadmap, and with everyone else doing the same. It was a free for all. Judging his potential to become adequate as a distributor based on last season is wildly unfair.

Of course now, he'll never get the chance to see how good a distributor he could have become as a PG in a normal NBA offense, so we'll never know what might have been.

 

[Nathan S]

Here are the list of NBA guards, under 6'3 and under 21 years old, that played at least 25 minutes per game and averaged under four assists:

-Daniel Gibson
-DJ Augustin
-Collin Sexton
-Brandon Knight
-Donovan Mitchell
-Chauncey Billups
-Dajuan Wagner
-Kyle Lowry
-Phil Chenier

Here are a list of guards, with the same criteria, but with an assist percentage under 25% (Sexton is at 15%).
-Daniel Gibson
-DJ Augustin
-Collin Sexton
-Steph Curry
-Mike Conley
-Brandon Knight
-Jonny Flynn
-Donovan Mitchell
-Chauncey Billups
-Tony Parker
-Dajuan Wagner
-De'Aaron Fox
-Monta Ellis
-Kyle Lowry
-Phil Chenier
-Eric Money

Same criteria as above, but only counting those who shot over 37% from three.
-Daniel Gibson
-DJ Augustin
-Collin Sexton
-Steph Curry
-Mike Conley
-Brandon Knight

Same criteria as above, but only counting those who had 20% or less assist percentage.
-Daniel Gibson
-Collin Sexton

...or with under four assists:
-Daniel Gibson
-DJ Augustin
-Collin Sexton
-Deron Williams
-Mike Conley
-Brandon Knight

And finally, here is the list if you raise the height to 6'5 and under:
-Daniel Gibson
-DJ Augustin
-Bradley Beal
-Collin Sexton
-Deron Williams
-Mike Conley
-Zach LaVine
-Eric Gordon
-Brandon Knight
-Jamal Murray
-DeAngelo Russell

Thus, given similar statistics to Sexton and a little leeway, there are twenty-one comparable players. Only Steph Curry, Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry, and Chauncey Billups had seasons with a Box Plus-Minus over 5, and out of those four, only two have done it for the team that drafted them.

So, statistically speaking, it is very unlikely Collin Sexton ever becomes anywhere close to as good of a facilitator as Steph Curry or James Harden. Is it possible? Sure. But for every Steph Curry and Mike Conley there have been eight-and-a-half players that never reached close to that level.

Two complaints:

-Wouldn't it be sensible to set a lower cutoff too? My whole point is that 3.0 assists and 2.3 turnovers per game is certainly not the worst we've seen from a 1-and-done rookie...it's actually pretty decent.

-Some of the guys who "failed" did so because their scoring skills were lacking, not because they didn't become good enough facilitators. So if we're talking about Sexton's overall chance of success, I agree, there's about a 7/8 chance that for one reason or another he never becomes an All-Star level offensive player (as I suggested in an earlier post). But I don't think there's a 7/8 chance that he never becomes an acceptable facilitator.

I agree completely with your point about people overlooking Sexton's assist % in his freshman year, and the huge drop during his first year with the Cavs. That should be the tipoff that something went wrong here.

But I don't think it dropped like that because Sexton came into the NBA fairly young. I think it dropped because we didn't really run an offense 90% of the time (per Ben), and so other players were free to take whatever role they wanted offensively rather than running the offense through the PG.

Simply put, Sexton's assist % dropped so dramatically from college because he wasn't put into a true PG role with the Cavs. We asked a rookie his to find his way as a distributor basically on his own, without a roadmap, and with everyone else doing the same. It was a free for all. Judging his potential to become adequate as a distributor based on last season is wildly unfair.

Of course now, he'll never get the chance to see how good a distributor he could have become as a PG in a normal NBA offense, so we'll never know what might have been.

Hopefully they let Sexton run the starting lineup and Garland run the bench unit...I have a hard time believing they're actually crazy enough to start them both, and benching Sexton right off the bat would be absurd. But we'll see.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Hopefully they let Sexton run the starting lineup and Garland run the bench unit...

In that scenario, who are our starting and backup SG's?

 

[Jordan]

I agree completely with your point about people overlooking Sexton's assist % in his freshman year, and the huge drop during his first year with the Cavs.

But I don't think it dropped like that because he came into the NBA fairly young. I think it dropped because we didn't really run an offense 90% of the time (per Ben), and so other players were free to take whatever role they wanted offensively rather than running the offense through the PG.

Simply put, Sexton's assist % dropped so dramatically from college because he wasn't put into a true PG role with the Cavs.

Of course now, he'll never get that chance, so we'll never know what might have been.

Here is a list of guards since 2010 (when data is available) that, during their freshman year, had at least a 25% assist percentage, played at least 18 minutes per game, and scored at least 15 points per game.

-Kyrie Irving
-Marcus Smart
-D'Angelo Russell
-Trae Young
-Markelle Fultz
-De'Aaron Fox
-Dennis Smith Jr.
-Collin Sexton
-Tremont Waiters
-Jalen Pickett
-Darius Garland
-Dejounte Murray
-Xavier Johnson
-Michael Weathers
-Jahii Carson
-Semaj Christon
-Cameron Payne
-Corey Sanders
-RJ Cole
-Martez Harrison
-Preston Parks
-Juan'va Green
-Rodney Elliott
-Kareem Canty
-Sam Sessoms
-Asante Gist
-Devon Baker

Here are the ones who have been in the league for at least three seasons:
-Kyrie Irving
-Marcus Smart
-D'Angelo Russell
-Dejounte Murray
-Jahii Carson
-Semaj Christon
-Cameron Payne
-Corey Sanders
-Martez Harrison
-Juan'va Green
-Rodney Elliott
-Kareem Canty

And here is the list, meeting the same criteria, but these players also shot at least a 55% True Shooting percentage.
-Kyrie Irving
-D'Angelo Russell
-Trae Young
-Markelle Fultz
-Dennis Smith Jr.
-Collin Sexton
-Tremont Waiters
-Jahii Carson
-Rodney Elliott

So, since 2010, nine players have put together numbers like Collin Sexton. Out of those nine, three have shown potential to be a star player (33%). For NBA players with similar stats at the same age, as I posted above, six out of twenty-one players developed all-star potential (28.5%) and only four as primary ball-handlers (19%). History suggests, no matter how you cut it, that at most Sexton has a 33% chance to develop into a star player as a primary ball-handler.

 

[Jordan]

Two complaints:

-Wouldn't it be sensible to set a lower cutoff too? My whole point is that 3.0 assists and 2.3 turnovers per game is certainly not the worst we've seen from a 1-and-done rookie...it's actually pretty decent.

-Some of the guys who "failed" did so because their scoring skills were lacking, not because they didn't become good enough facilitators. So if we're talking about Sexton's overall chance of success, I agree, there's about a 7/8 chance that for one reason or another he never becomes an All-Star level offensive player (as I suggested in an earlier post). But I don't think there's a 7/8 chance that he never becomes an acceptable facilitator.



Hopefully they let Sexton run the starting lineup and Garland run the bench unit...I have a hard time believing they're actually crazy enough to start them both, and benching Sexton right off the bat would be absurd. But we'll see.

By acceptable facilitator do you mean the primary facilitator on a playoff team? Because, given that same list, the numbers still are not great. I replied with the college players showing similar stats in sports-reference's data and the odds are still not good. If you mean he can develop skills to be a secondary facilitator or primary facilitator off the bench, then yeah, I totally agree... but I do not believe Garland limits his ability to do that.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Here is a list of guards since 2010 (when data is available) that, during their freshman year, had at least a 25% assist percentage, played at least 18 minutes per game, and scored at least 15 points per game.

-Kyrie Irving
-Marcus Smart
-D'Angelo Russell
-Trae Young
-Markelle Fultz
-De'Aaron Fox
-Dennis Smith Jr.
-Collin Sexton
-Tremont Waiters
-Jalen Pickett
-Darius Garland
-Dejounte Murray
-Xavier Johnson
-Michael Weathers
-Jahii Carson
-Semaj Christon
-Cameron Payne
-Corey Sanders
-RJ Cole
-Martez Harrison
-Preston Parks
-Juan'va Green
-Rodney Elliott
-Kareem Canty
-Sam Sessoms
-Asante Gist
-Devon Baker

Here are the ones who have been in the league for at least three seasons:
-Kyrie Irving
-Marcus Smart
-D'Angelo Russell
-Dejounte Murray
-Jahii Carson
-Semaj Christon
-Cameron Payne
-Corey Sanders
-Martez Harrison
-Juan'va Green
-Rodney Elliott
-Kareem Canty

And here is the list, meeting the same criteria, but these players also shot at least a 55% True Shooting percentage.
-Kyrie Irving
-D'Angelo Russell
-Trae Young
-Markelle Fultz
-Dennis Smith Jr.
-Collin Sexton
-Tremont Waiters
-Jahii Carson
-Rodney Elliott

So, since 2010, nine players have put together numbers like Collin Sexton. Out of those nine, three have shown potential to be a star player (33%). For NBA players with similar stats at the same age, as I posted above, six out of twenty-one players developed all-star potential (28.5%) and only four as primary ball-handlers (19%). History suggests, no matter how you cut it, that at most Sexton has a 33% chance to develop into a star player as a primary ball-handler.

You're assuming that the % likelihood of success is evenly distributed among everyone in that group. Right?

So, Rodney Elliot had the same 33% chance to become an All-Star as a primary ballhander as did Kyrie Irving and D'Angelo Russell?

Also...doesn't that mean that Garland also has, at best, a 33% chance of becoming an All-Star PG?

 

[Jordan]

You're assuming that the % likelihood of success is evenly distributed among everyone in that group. Right?

So, Rodney Elliot had the same 33% chance to become an All-Star as a primary ballhander as did Kyrie Irving and D'Angelo Russell?

Sure, that's fair. So even if you cut out the guys who were never given the opportunity, there are five others, and three have show potential to be primary ball-handlers (Kyrie, DLO, and Trae Young). If you take the full list, nine have gotten that opportunity, and only Kyrie, DLO, Trae Young, and Fox have shown the potential to be primary ball-handlers. So at best, discounting Sexton's NBA stats, you have between a 44%-60% chance.

Let's assume the Cavs are functioning with those odds and they believed that Garland was, far and away, the best player available. Would it make sense for them to not draft the other guard and guarantee Sexton's role as a facilitator? My opinion is that, if they truly had Garland ranked in a tier above the other players (which they have suggested), then they made the right decision.

FYI: I still have only one problem with this draft, but it is big, and it feels like we drafted two guards that need the ball and a rotation wing. It does not feel like the team is substantially trying to build a *team*, but rather, they are trying to amass the best players as possible. Maybe that is the right choice? I can see the logic, I just disagree with it.

 

[Nathan S]

In that scenario, who are our starting and backup SG's?

If it were up to me, I would probably start Sexton/Cedi/Windler/Love/Nance with Garland/Delly/Zizic off the bench, and KPJ/miscellaneous veterans filling in the gaps as appropriate.

Here is a list of guards since 2010 (when data is available) that, during their freshman year, had at least a 25% assist percentage, played at least 18 minutes per game, and scored at least 15 points per game.

-Kyrie Irving
-Marcus Smart
-D'Angelo Russell
-Trae Young
-Markelle Fultz
-De'Aaron Fox
-Dennis Smith Jr.
-Collin Sexton
-Tremont Waiters
-Jalen Pickett
-Darius Garland
-Dejounte Murray
-Xavier Johnson
-Michael Weathers
-Jahii Carson
-Semaj Christon
-Cameron Payne
-Corey Sanders
-RJ Cole
-Martez Harrison
-Preston Parks
-Juan'va Green
-Rodney Elliott
-Kareem Canty
-Sam Sessoms
-Asante Gist
-Devon Baker

Here are the ones who have been in the league for at least three seasons:
-Kyrie Irving
-Marcus Smart
-D'Angelo Russell
-Dejounte Murray
-Jahii Carson
-Semaj Christon
-Cameron Payne
-Corey Sanders
-Martez Harrison
-Juan'va Green
-Rodney Elliott
-Kareem Canty

And here is the list, meeting the same criteria, but these players also shot at least a 55% True Shooting percentage.
-Kyrie Irving
-D'Angelo Russell
-Trae Young
-Markelle Fultz
-Dennis Smith Jr.
-Collin Sexton
-Tremont Waiters
-Jahii Carson
-Rodney Elliott

So, since 2010, nine players have put together numbers like Collin Sexton. Out of those nine, three have shown potential to be a star player (33%). For NBA players with similar stats at the same age, as I posted above, six out of twenty-one players developed all-star potential (28.5%) and only four as primary ball-handlers (19%). History suggests, no matter how you cut it, that at most Sexton has a 33% chance to develop into a star player as a primary ball-handler.

A 20% chance to be an All-Star primary ballhandler is fantastic though, right? Normally you'd be thrilled to get that kind of upside drafting below 3/4 or so.

By acceptable facilitator do you mean the primary facilitator on a playoff team? Because, given that same list, the numbers still are not great. I replied with the college players showing similar stats in sports-reference's data and the odds are still not good. If you mean he can develop skills to be a secondary facilitator or primary facilitator off the bench, then yeah, I totally agree... but I do not believe Garland limits his ability to do that.

Things get blurry after a point, right? Like is Curry or Draymond the primary facilitator for the Warriors? The point is that Curry has good enough vision that he can run the offense for significant stretches of games and doesn't unnecessarily pound the rock and gum things up. I think there's a decent chance Sexton can get to that point (just comparing the two in terms of pure facilitating ability).

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Sure, that's fair. So even if you cut out the guys who were never given the opportunity, there are five others, and three have show potential to be primary ball-handlers (Kyrie, DLO, and Trae Young). If you take the full list, nine have gotten that opportunity, and only Kyrie, DLO, Trae Young, and Fox have shown the potential to be primary ball-handlers. So at best, discounting Sexton's NBA stats, you have between a 44%-60% chance.

Let's assume the Cavs are functioning with those odds and they believed that Garland was, far and away, the best player available. Would it make sense for them to not draft the other guard and guarantee Sexton's role as a facilitator? My opinion is that, if they truly had Garland ranked in a tier above the other players (which they have suggested), then they made the right decision.

FYI: I still have only one problem with this draft, but it is big, and it feels like we drafted two guards that need the ball and a rotation wing. It does not feel like the team is substantially trying to build a *team*, but rather, they are trying to amass the best players as possible. Maybe that is the right choice? I can see the logic, I just disagree with it.

If we take that same list of 9 guys, and add "shot at least 40% from 3 in their rookie season", how does that affect the pool?

Because to me, that was the game changer with Sexton in terms of his ceiling during his rookie season. We didn't run an offense, the defense was a shambles...so the kid worked obsessively on his shot and became deadly.

 

[Jordan]

A 20% chance to be an All-Star primary ballhandler is fantastic though, right? Normally you'd be thrilled to get that kind of upside drafting below 3/4 or so.

Agreed. Just to be specific, Sexton was pretty clearly the correct choice at 8. He'll be a good player regardless of position.

Things get blurry after a point, right? Like is Curry or Draymond the primary facilitator for the Warriors? The point is that Curry has good enough vision that he can run the offense for significant stretches of games and doesn't unnecessarily pound the rock and gum things up. I think there's a decent chance Sexton can get to that point (just comparing the two in terms of pure facilitating ability).

Well that's kind of my point. Curry and Draymond (and Durant) all facilitate for the Warriors. I do not really see why that is substantially different than Sexton and Garland.

I get, the defense, but I am unsure why that will affect offensive production? I find it hard to believe that Sexton's opportunity as a facilitator will be much different with Garland than it would have been with Delly, Clarkson, Knight, etc.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

If it were up to me, I would probably start Sexton/Cedi/Windler/Love/Nance with Garland/Delly/Zizic off the bench, and KPJ/miscellaneous veterans filling in the gaps as appropriate.

Doesn't sound to me like Beilein wants to have Sexton and Garland split PG duties as primary/backup. Sounded to me from his public statements that he sees them playing together primarily.