Collin Sexton | The Young Bull

[avs2000]

I mean, if he maintains his ability to be a 40% three-point shooter then he will have value as an off-ball guard. The reason his offensive BPM, win shares, etc. were all still negative during his crazy two months is that he was a really poor facilitator, maybe even worse than as a defender. If the Cavs' entire strategy into making Sexton a valuable player is turning him into the #1 option and lead facilitator, then frankly, they would be making a mistake.

I do not buy that the only way he will be a positive impact player is as a #1 option, because there are only about ten guys in the NBA who can make that work. If you think Sexton has the talent to pull that off, then sure, but in no way do his numbers or evaluations from his rookie year reflect that level of talent. Moreover, I would be stunned if the Cavs ever felt that way about Sexton.

He was a mediocre facilitator in college. He had an average assist-to-turnover ratio and a low number of potential assists. I actually feel that the team is putting a ceiling on him by forcing him to be the primary facilitator. I think this situation is much better. If he improves as a facilitator, then you give him more opportunities, but if not then he his still in a good position.

Sexton is a 40% three-point shooter who is great at playmaking after the offense has been initiated. He also is exceptionally quick. He struggles on defense, with his vision on drives, and in reading a defense before initiating a play. The first two generally are, more or less, pretty stagnant throughout a player's career. Nonetheless, it seems like his strengths and weaknesses suggest he can be a really valuable off-ball guard in the NBA.

His assists would have been 1-3 pg higher if he had talent around him or he wasnt on the floor with clarkson. Sexton is fine

 

[1B4IGO]

I am one who believes the two can be very effective. Colin played his best ball with Knight in the backcourt. We need a front court that can rebound and defend.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

Not out of the realm of possibility as far as shooting goes. Sexton was a 40% shooter last year, and Garland's best skill by far is his shooting. How many teams can boast two 20 and under backcourt starters with over 40% 3pt shooters?

Now, I went too hyperbolic, but I would say there is a very good chance those two become one of the best shooting backcourts in a year or two.

 

[J_J]

This is just false. His lateral quickness is not bad, but it has never been a strength on defense. He made up for it in college by being incredibly physical on the ball and using his length as an advantage. It is why he actually may be a decent two-guard from a defensive standpoint. That's where he needs to show improvement. Use his physical attributes to his advantage.

I still feel he has good lateral quickness. The problem is his body is often too high when the defender gets the ball. Therefore he is already one step slow no matter how quick he is.He needs to get low more consistently with effort.

 

[NMCav]

Question?

How many of the past 15-20 NBA champions had elite pure PGs?

Not the MIA teams(Shaq/Wade and Big3)
Not the SAS teams
Not the LAL(Shaq/Kobe and Kobe/Pau team)
Not DAL Dirk title

I guess Steph counts? But how many titles do they win if KD doesn’t come(or Ky/Love aren’t injured in 2015)

Rondo on those BOS teams

Who else?

What is the obsession with Sexton or Garland being elite playmakers.

If historical trends continue its irrlevent if we groom one or both of them into that vision of a point guard. Far far more important is at some point in the next 1-3 years acquiring or drafting a wing who is a top5-10 player on the NBA during his prime. Let’s hope we find one of those guys and that when we do one or both of Garland/Sexton can support him in the way that guys like Kyrie, Jason Terry, Ray Allen, Tony Parker, Kyle Lowry, FVV, and other did to their elite wings/bigs.

Nah Steph don't count he's not a pure PG. Hes a SG that plays PG. Romeo is the only one. Mavs in 11 won with JKidd but he was ancient by then. The 06 Heat with Jason Williams half count. Jason Williams and Gary Payton were both pure PGs neither elite though.

Although if you do wanna count Steph then you gotta count Parker. So 3 at most. But in terms of elite I would only say Rondo in terms of pure PG.

 

[Jordan]

His ceiling as a 2-guard is basically CJ McCollum, right? Look at how difficult it is for McCollum to eke out a BPM of even like +1 or so. That's life as a 6'3" SG.

As for whether or not Sexton has the potential to significantly improve as a facilitator...I'll point you again to Lillard/Curry/Harden/DeRozan/Oladipo/Walker, all of whom arguably did not appear to be good enough facilitators to lead an NBA offense at age 19/20, but developed that skill over time. It's not impossible.

What has Sexton shown you that makes you think he can be as elite in every other facet outside of passing? Curry, Lillard, and Kemba were a different level player after their first season in the NBA. DeRozan and Oladipo are two-guards and not primary facilitators.

The only comparable analogy is Harden, and maybe Kemba. I mean, if you’ve seen something that makes you think that is possible, great...

To the CJ analogy, sure, I think that’s near his ceiling. Using Player Impact Plus Minus, since CJ became a starter in 2015-16, he’s added an average of 6.65 wins per season. Looking at the same stat since the first year a player hits within one standard deviation of their max, other similar secondary facilitating, off-ball guards and their PIPM wins: Lou Williams has added an average of 3.47 wins per season, Jrue Holiday has added 6.48, Jamal Murray has added 7.4, Eric Bledsoe has added 7.5. And another analogous player I like is Houston’s Eric Gordon, who averages 5.84 PIPM wins per season.

I think those are Sexton’s range of possibilities as a secondary facilitator and that basically means his max is a +7.5 wins added per season. That’s a pretty great result for the eighth pick of the draft, and to me, those are much stronger player comparisons than Curry, Lillard, Harden, and Kemba.

 

[Nathan S]

What has Sexton shown you that makes you think he can be as elite in every other facet outside of passing? Curry, Lillard, and Kemba were a different level player after their first season in the NBA. DeRozan and Oladipo are two-guards and not primary facilitators.

The only comparable analogy is Harden, and maybe Kemba. I mean, if you’ve seen something that makes you think that is possible, great...

To the CJ analogy, sure, I think that’s near his ceiling. Using Player Impact Plus Minus, since CJ became a starter in 2015-16, he’s added an average of 6.65 wins per season. Looking at the same stat since the first year a player hits within one standard deviation of their max, other similar secondary facilitating, off-ball guards and their PIPM wins: Lou Williams has added an average of 3.47 wins per season, Jrue Holiday has added 6.48, Jamal Murray has added 7.4, Eric Bledsoe has added 7.5. And another analogous player I like is Houston’s Eric Gordon, who averages 5.84 PIPM wins per season.

I think those are Sexton’s range of possibilities as a secondary facilitator and that basically means his max is a +7.5 wins added per season. That’s a pretty great result for the eighth pick of the draft, and to me, those are much stronger player comparisons than Curry, Lillard, Harden, and Kemba.

You're dodging my point by comparing Sexton's age 19-20 rookie year to other players' age 21+ rookie years. Many players were not good enough passers at age 19-20 to be primary ballhandlers for an NBA team but developed that ability over time. Sexton has the potential to develop that ability too. Agree or disagree?

 

[NMCav]

What has Sexton shown you that makes you think he can be as elite in every other facet outside of passing? Curry, Lillard, and Kemba were a different level player after their first season in the NBA. DeRozan and Oladipo are two-guards and not primary facilitators.

The only comparable analogy is Harden, and maybe Kemba. I mean, if you’ve seen something that makes you think that is possible, great...

To the CJ analogy, sure, I think that’s near his ceiling. Using Player Impact Plus Minus, since CJ became a starter in 2015-16, he’s added an average of 6.65 wins per season. Looking at the same stat since the first year a player hits within one standard deviation of their max, other similar secondary facilitating, off-ball guards and their PIPM wins: Lou Williams has added an average of 3.47 wins per season, Jrue Holiday has added 6.48, Jamal Murray has added 7.4, Eric Bledsoe has added 7.5. And another analogous player I like is Houston’s Eric Gordon, who averages 5.84 PIPM wins per season.

I think those are Sexton’s range of possibilities as a secondary facilitator and that basically means his max is a +7.5 wins added per season. That’s a pretty great result for the eighth pick of the draft, and to me, those are much stronger player comparisons than Curry, Lillard, Harden, and Kemba.

3 Years of College, 4 years of College, 3 years of College. How good would those players have been if they came in 1 year out of college? The developmental period is clearly going to be longer for 19 year old kid starting in the NBA then a 21 year old or in Lillards case a 22 year old. Go back and look at Curry's college stats as a Freshmen he had a 2.8 APG to 2.8 TOPG ratio in a terrible college conference. Damian Lillard as a Sophmore had a 3.6 APG to 2.4 TOPG ratio. As a sophmore the same age Sexton was as a NBA Rookie he had a 2.9 APG to 2.6 TOPG ratio. Kemba as a Sophmore at UCONN shot 40 percent from the field and 33 percent from the field. He did have 5.1 APG to 2.9 TOPG but was terribly inefficient.

Clearly it takes time to develop. But Sexton as an NBA Rookie was similar to Curry at the same age as a facilitator. Was more efficient as a scorer them Kemba was at UCONN. So what makes me believe its possible that he develops in that area? The fact that guys like Curry and Dame were the same level of facilitator as Sophmores in college then Sexton was a 19 year old playing in the NBA.

 

[CavsFanJapan]

Sexton got better as the season went on and did it in a situation where there was no offensive system. Even though we drafted Garland, the system will now play to their strengths and I feel they will both excel under Beilein. The defense is a worry but we just had one of the worst performances in the history of the NBA. I’ll be happy if we develop an offensive juggernaut with some defense.

 

[J_J]

Wasn’t Sexton finding players towards the end of the season? Not saying he will be an outstanding facilitator but I think he can be a guy who averages 5-6 assists. But these days you do not need to have pure facilitators. As long as you have guys moving on and off the ball, being able to shoot, and find the open man, utilize screens, we can be lethal.

 

[Jordan]

You're dodging my point by comparing Sexton's age 19-20 rookie year to other players' age 21+ rookie years. Many players were not good enough passers at age 19-20 to be primary ballhandlers for an NBA team but developed that ability over time. Sexton has the potential to develop that ability too. Agree or disagree?

No, I’m not dodging the point. But frankly, I’ve seen you get in a similar debate to this before, and your argument is basically Kevin Garnett. “Anything is possible” because he’s young. You want to create comparisons, but then say college and the NBA are not comparable, and because Sexton is unique given his performance at his age, any negative comparison is not logical.

Frankly, the only comparable quantitative data is the data from their rookie years. Again, you don’t want to use that, which is fine. So let’s use the eye test.

What made their respective teams think Curry and Harden become those types of passers were that they had excellent vision combined with great handles. So while they had played most of college as secondary facilitators because they were raw as passers, the potential was always there as a primary facilitator.

Sexton’s vision is arguably his weakest attribute. His handles are fine, but they are not special, which is also fine. He has a great understanding of the game and elite speed. As a result, his best offensive role should be as a secondary facilitator.

Finally, Curry and Harden were also elite at basically every other facet of their offensive game, which made making them the primary facilitator the best way to maximize their impact. If Sexton shows that level of play, then sure, you make him the primary facilitator to maximize the other facets of his game.

But again, and this is probably the central area we disagree, I do not believe Sexton holds as many elite non-passing skills as Curry, Harden, or even Kemba. Maybe he develops those skills? It’s still possible while playing with another defensive black hole guard (Curry and Monta; Harden and Russ; Harden and Ty Lawson).

 

[TyGuy]

Dang! That’s 14 in a row from NBA range in the corner. Where are the haters who say Sexton can’t shoot?

I don't recall anybody saying he can't shoot. The criticism was that he didn't attempt enough threes.

 

[cavsfever]

Does Kemba become Kemba if the Hornets draft e.g. Lillard or Kyrie in Kemba's second year? Because if you accept all these player analogies, that's more like the analogy now.

 

[TyGuy]

Impressive. But maybe he should hone his muscle memory not standing out of bounds

Hes not playing on an nba court, so he needs to shoot that far back to be in NBA range.

 

[Nathan S]

No, I’m not dodging the point. But frankly, I’ve seen you get in a similar debate to this before, and your argument is basically Kevin Garnett. “Anything is possible” because he’s young. You want to create comparisons, but then say college and the NBA are not comparable, and because Sexton is unique given his performance at his age, any negative comparison is not logical.

Frankly, the only comparable quantitative data is the data from their rookie years. Again, you don’t want to use that, which is fine. So let’s use the eye test.

What made their respective teams think Curry and Harden become those types of passers were that they had excellent vision combined with great handles. So while they had played most of college as secondary facilitators because they were raw as passers, the potential was always there as a primary facilitator.

Sexton’s vision is arguably his weakest attribute. His handles are fine, but they are not special, which is also fine. He has a great understanding of the game and elite speed. As a result, his best offensive role should be as a secondary facilitator.

Finally, Curry and Harden were also elite at basically every other facet of their offensive game, which made making them the primary facilitator the best way to maximize their impact. If Sexton shows that level of play, then sure, you make him the primary facilitator to maximize the other facets of his game.

But again, and this is probably the central area we disagree, I do not believe Sexton holds as many elite non-passing skills as Curry, Harden, or even Kemba. Maybe he develops those skills? It’s still possible while playing with another defensive black hole guard (Curry and Monta; Harden and Russ; Harden and Ty Lawson).

No...that's not my argument. I think the logical comparison is to other players at the same age, and I think college and the NBA are comparable if we're focusing solely on demonstrated passing ability.

Sexton averaged 3.7 assists and 2.8 turnovers per 40 at the NBA level at age 19/20.

Curry averaged 3.5 assists and 3.1 turnovers per 40 at the same age in college.

Harden averaged 4.7 assists and 3.8 turnovers per 40 in college when slightly younger than Sexton, 3.2 assists and 2.4 turnovers per 40 in the NBA when slightly older than Sexton.

Kemba averaged 4.8 assists and 2.4 turnovers per 40 in college when slightly older than Sexton

Lillard averaged 4.6 assists and 3.9 turnovers per 40 in college when slightly older than Sexton


The situation would be different if Sexton had averaged, say, 2.5 assists and 3.0 turnovers per 40. In that case I would agree that it's virtually unheard of for a player to struggle so much as a passer initially and go on to become a primary ballhandler. But that's not the case...Sexton appears to be within the "normal" range for guys who go on to become primary ballhandlers. That doesn't mean he'll be as good as any of those guys, but you can't rule out the possibility on the basis of Sexton's middling assist:TO numbers.


As for Sexton's non-passing skills (on the offensive end) he's certainly shown elite potential in key areas even if he hasn't put it all together yet. In high school and in college, he was absolutely elite attacking the rim. In the NBA he struggled some attacking the rim, but did shoot 40% from 3 and 84% from the line, a rare feat for a player his age which suggests some elite shooting potential.


In summary, say Sexton needs to become good/great at all 3 of those things (passing/slashing/shooting) to be a superstar. I'd say he has about a 50% chance in each area, or a 1/8 chance to be a superstar overall. That's not great odds, but my point is that there's no "red flag" weakness holding him back.