Collin Sexton | The Young Bull

[CavsFanJapan]

Impressive. But maybe he should hone his muscle memory not standing out of bounds

Maybe he is being coached by Omri Casspi

 

[benchplayer]

Sexton and Garland should be the best shooting back court in the NBA. At least efficiency wise. If Sexton gets back to drawing a bunch of fouls, he's going to basically being a scoring monster.

I can't wait to see those guys in the fast break

 

[benchplayer]

View: https://twitter.com/CollinSexton02/status/1144000042694598657?s=19

Sexton about to lock down that starting spot!

 

[Jordan]

Agree that if he doesn't progress as a facilitator he's a 6th man at best. I'm saying it should be a priority to help him progress as a facilitator however we can. He's not far behind the curve at this point, but he will be if he doesn't work on those skills this year.



Could be. But I have a hard time seeing Sexton as a positive-impact player in a lower leverage offensive role. Hard to produce enough offensive value of offset his poor defense if he's not a #1 option.

I mean, if he maintains his ability to be a 40% three-point shooter then he will have value as an off-ball guard. The reason his offensive BPM, win shares, etc. were all still negative during his crazy two months is that he was a really poor facilitator, maybe even worse than as a defender. If the Cavs' entire strategy into making Sexton a valuable player is turning him into the #1 option and lead facilitator, then frankly, they would be making a mistake.

I do not buy that the only way he will be a positive impact player is as a #1 option, because there are only about ten guys in the NBA who can make that work. If you think Sexton has the talent to pull that off, then sure, but in no way do his numbers or evaluations from his rookie year reflect that level of talent. Moreover, I would be stunned if the Cavs ever felt that way about Sexton.

He was a mediocre facilitator in college. He had an average assist-to-turnover ratio and a low number of potential assists. I actually feel that the team is putting a ceiling on him by forcing him to be the primary facilitator. I think this situation is much better. If he improves as a facilitator, then you give him more opportunities, but if not then he his still in a good position.

Sexton is a 40% three-point shooter who is great at playmaking after the offense has been initiated. He also is exceptionally quick. He struggles on defense, with his vision on drives, and in reading a defense before initiating a play. The first two generally are, more or less, pretty stagnant throughout a player's career. Nonetheless, it seems like his strengths and weaknesses suggest he can be a really valuable off-ball guard in the NBA.

 

[Jake]

I like Collin a lot. As many noted he showed steady improvement last season. He has some nice skills and he wants to improve. I don't see him getting distracted, he knows this is a big opportunity in his life. So far looks durable too.

 

[DOTL]

I think the whole concept of "ceiling" is vastly overrated. It assumes that an individual's limits as a basketball player can be properly assessed in the first place. In reality there are a ton of factors that determine a player's true limits and some of them are difficult if not impossible to know or measure, particularly some of those between the ears. Even physical limits can be deceptive for 19 year olds -- some players are late bloomers.

...

The answer is -- nobody knows. It's all speculation.
...

This... I get annoyed when people talk about "ceilings", blah blah. who is anybody to say what a man can or cant be.

 

[sailfish]

View: https://twitter.com/CollinSexton02/status/1144000042694598657?s=19

Dang! That’s 14 in a row from NBA range in the corner. Where are the haters who say Sexton can’t shoot?

 

[cabs]

Hopefully his work ethic rubs off onto the rookies

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Kemba Walker vs Sexton. Odd comparison I know.

In his rookie season (age 20), Collin played in all 82 games (started 72) and averaged 16-3-3 in ~32 MPG. His usage was 25.2. He shot 40% from 3, 44% from 2.

In his rookie season (age 21), Kemba played in 66 games (started 25), and averaged 12-3.5-4.5 in ~27 mpg. His usage was 25.2. He shot 30% from 3, 39% from 2.

Kemba's progression:

Kemba's career has gone through a few phases. Phase I was his rookie year noted above. Phase II was years 2 through 4 (ages 22-24). Phase III is years 5-present (age 25-on).

Phase II: Kemba averaged approximately 17.5-3.7-5.7. Shot 32% from 3, 43% from 2, 82% FT. On approximately 26% usage and 35 MPG playing time. The biggest difference between Phase II Kemba and rookie Kemba is playing time and the 2's just started going in more. The difference between rookie Sexton and Phase II Kemba? I don't think terribly much. Kemba was tasked with distributing more and Sexton was asked to score more.

Phase III Kemba is averaging approximately 23-4-5.5. He's now shooting 38% from 3, 47.5% from 2, 85% FT. Usage nearing 29% and still about 35 MPG. TS% around 56%.

The biggest difference between Phase II and III Kemba, he again raised better his shooting, gaining 6% on his 3PT and a few percent on the 2s and FTs. He also has the ball in his hands more. He, somehow, managed to increase his volume fairly significantly while getting better at putting the ball in the hole. He only turns the ball over 2 times per game. In terms of distribution, he continued to rack up about 5-6 assists per night.

What does Sexton need to do:

I don't think we could realistically ask Sexton to improve his efficiency over the next couple years. If he can nearly maintain his percentages while creeping up his usage or minutes, that's a huge win. Some improved defense would be nice too. Rookie Sexton shot the 3 better than prime Kemba and wasn't far behind prime Kemba in the other percentages. And bear in mind, Sexton totally turned a corner post ASG and showed the ability to finish with both hands, beat elite defenders off the bounce. Sexton who can continue to score the ball with a bit more volume and learn how to pass is prime Kemba, or better.

Sexton was clearly tasked with scoring and he distributing didn't appear to be a priority. it sounds like that will continue with the addition of Garland as a primary distributor.

There's really no reason why sophomore Sexton can't play 35 MPG in 70+ games. He's in crazy shape. I'm hoping for 35 MPG, 20-4-3, 25% USG, 37.5%+ 3's. That's an extremely valuable player. Though I think the only path to potential all-stardom would be in a Charlotte-like situation where he's just handed the reigns every night and told to go off. A non-playoff team without tantalizing talent on the roster.

One reason I wasn't a fan of drafting Garland is that I'm irrationally (admittedly) biased towards Sexton. I absolutely love that he's a kid who has always done things the right way. He studied hard in high school, and even made Dean's List the limited time he was in college. And we all know the stories about the ridiculous number of shots he was putting up in practice, the wildly disproportionate times he spent in the gym, etc..

I really wanted to see him take the next step as a true PG in his development. Not only because I liked him, but because I think his length and shooting gave him a shot at being a huge plus player at that position. I just don't see that kind of upside at SG because he's always going to be a bit undersized.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Yeah, I'm just disagreeing with the people saying Sexton's best role going forward is SG or 6th-man. Doesn't make sense to put a low ceiling on him after the rookie season he had.

You don't need to average 8 apg to be a top-level PG in the NBA. Many teams use their PG to bring up as the ball and as a secondary facilitator, or even if he's the "primary" facilitator, there are more wings that can get 4-6 apg as well.

Still think Sexton had at least an even shot of getting to 6 apg at some point.

 

[Nathan S]

I mean, if he maintains his ability to be a 40% three-point shooter then he will have value as an off-ball guard. The reason his offensive BPM, win shares, etc. were all still negative during his crazy two months is that he was a really poor facilitator, maybe even worse than as a defender. If the Cavs' entire strategy into making Sexton a valuable player is turning him into the #1 option and lead facilitator, then frankly, they would be making a mistake.

I do not buy that the only way he will be a positive impact player is as a #1 option, because there are only about ten guys in the NBA who can make that work. If you think Sexton has the talent to pull that off, then sure, but in no way do his numbers or evaluations from his rookie year reflect that level of talent. Moreover, I would be stunned if the Cavs ever felt that way about Sexton.

He was a mediocre facilitator in college. He had an average assist-to-turnover ratio and a low number of potential assists. I actually feel that the team is putting a ceiling on him by forcing him to be the primary facilitator. I think this situation is much better. If he improves as a facilitator, then you give him more opportunities, but if not then he his still in a good position.

Sexton is a 40% three-point shooter who is great at playmaking after the offense has been initiated. He also is exceptionally quick. He struggles on defense, with his vision on drives, and in reading a defense before initiating a play. The first two generally are, more or less, pretty stagnant throughout a player's career. Nonetheless, it seems like his strengths and weaknesses suggest he can be a really valuable off-ball guard in the NBA.

His ceiling as a 2-guard is basically CJ McCollum, right? Look at how difficult it is for McCollum to eke out a BPM of even like +1 or so. That's life as a 6'3" SG.

As for whether or not Sexton has the potential to significantly improve as a facilitator...I'll point you again to Lillard/Curry/Harden/DeRozan/Oladipo/Walker, all of whom arguably did not appear to be good enough facilitators to lead an NBA offense at age 19/20, but developed that skill over time. It's not impossible.

 

[MirORich]

Question?

How many of the past 15-20 NBA champions had elite pure PGs?

Not the MIA teams(Shaq/Wade and Big3)
Not the SAS teams
Not the LAL(Shaq/Kobe and Kobe/Pau team)
Not DAL Dirk title

I guess Steph counts? But how many titles do they win if KD doesn’t come(or Ky/Love aren’t injured in 2015)

Rondo on those BOS teams

Who else?

What is the obsession with Sexton or Garland being elite playmakers.

If historical trends continue its irrlevent if we groom one or both of them into that vision of a point guard. Far far more important is at some point in the next 1-3 years acquiring or drafting a wing who is a top5-10 player on the NBA during his prime. Let’s hope we find one of those guys and that when we do one or both of Garland/Sexton can support him in the way that guys like Kyrie, Jason Terry, Ray Allen, Tony Parker, Kyle Lowry, FVV, and other did to their elite wings/bigs.

 

[Sebastian]

The kid will be fine.

Hard worker. Talented.

If it doesn't work out it won't be from a lack of effort on his part to be sure. That's all one can really ask from him.

 

[Joe Henderson]

You don't need to average 8 apg to be a top-level PG in the NBA. Many teams use their PG to bring up as the ball and as a secondary facilitator, or even if he's the "primary" facilitator, there are more wings that can get 4-6 apg as well.

Still think Sexton had at least an even shot of getting to 6 apg at some point.

I think it'll be helpful if the offensive system goes a bit beyond just rolling the ball out and letting them figure it out. This is where a college style approach, with clearly defined roles and everyone knowing where they need to be at all times could be really be a great situation for Sexton.
Of course, the question is how much he'll even handle the ball

 

[SanduskyCav]

Sexton and Garland should be the best shooting back court in the NBA. At least efficiency wise. If Sexton gets back to drawing a bunch of fouls, he's going to basically being a scoring monster.

you expect them to be already better than Dame and McCollum?