All it takes is fear to make the market crash. Volatility spikes when the market goes down... because everyone is just playing chicken with each other. I think this market is just itching for some sort of catalyst to bring it back in line. Right before the French election there was a huge spike in VIX futures. Right after Comey was fired there was a huge spike in VIX futures. Both reverted quickly. I think everyone is pretty antsy and wants to be the one that sells at the top and buys right back in at the bottom. The stock market has a lot to do with psychology
This I agree with. What signals do you usually look for to get out in a bull market?
You are a bit ahead of me it seems on risk and really knowledge of market. I am better than average person for sure, but really dont like the more advanced products.
I put my max 18k a year into my 401k, and then am very conservative on personal non retirement assets. Its just my strategy to be diversified.
I do take stock tips and have between 20-50k in the market typically at any time, but i have yet to short anyone in the market personally, although I might dive into that soon.
What I will say is I have a very good friend that has made over 2 million in the market and he gives me the occasional tip and he is who i follow allot the last 4 or 5 years.
As for signals for bull market, i really only look at trends. I like graphs, i am good at them at will look at various common indicators. I am looking for a obvious turn in the market. So Dow (which is my least favorite), Nasdaq and S&P 500. I will look at day over day treds, and I tend to look at monthly trends to see if market is turning. I look for pivot points, floors and ceilings. Typically when a bull market has broken two or three floors (in my opinion) is when i feel the market has turned and I change my investment strategy. Pull out of the stock on personal side, and go conservative in 401k.
This strategy will always mean i am not getting the most at the top and I lose a bit when it turns at the bottom, but it has proven effective for me. Investing really is a personal comfort thing and I think your strategy seems awesome. I know for a fact my strategy will have me at a few million in my 401k at retirement and that is good enough for me. But yours when done correct could get to the few million well before retirement..
PS, as for mutual funds, yes i am paying people to invest, but with a proven track record I am ok with that concept. Its what I know and what I am comfortable with. I am actively working on getting my house paid for, yes ironic for a mortgage guy and will buy some rental for cash before retirement too. I have flipped a couple of houses, but while fun, is allot of effort for what seems about 10-20k net in return after everyone including IRS gets paid.
.gif "Tv (7) :tv (7):")
