I know this is targeted at the statman, but i actually am intrigued by this conversation. I feel like there are clear factions on this board and the Rosen faction is pretty much just out screaming/bullying the Mayfield/Darnold factions.
As always i will start off with I dont want the browns to draft Mayfield, but i do think he will end up a successful NFL QB.
That said to address some of the points. First "pro style" offense used to primarily mean "how often does the QB have to take a snap under center" this was the very clear dividing line 10 years ago when we talked about a college QB being able to make the jump to the NFL, does he have experience behind center taking the snap. In the NFL in 2006 19% of snaps were in the shotgun or pistol formation, by 2011 it was at 41%, in 2016 it was at 68% (i dont have last years numbers). So as we talk about does a college QB run a pro-style offense we really need to define what that actual means now. Because its no longer as simple as "can he take a snap under center". At this point if Mayfield or any other QB has to take a snap under center its only 1 of every 4 snaps a game (or less). I have no idea how many snaps Mayfield took under center last year at OU, but even if we say it was 99%, we are a very far cry from the days when a college QB playing in the shotgun should be a huge negative on the scouting report.
So what do we mean when we say a pro-style offense? Is it having to make pre-snap decisions of where the ball should go, is it being able to audible out of a poor play choice, is it being able to run a specific play and just find an open receiver?
I would make the argument that while the offensive sets and plays used in the NFL used to be dramatically different than in college, that gap is getting smaller and smaller. You see a lot more shotgun, spread sets, quick slants, etc. Things you didnt see in the Pro level 10 years ago.
Furthermore to say that any college QB runs primary a pro style offense, is a bit disingenuous. Do certain schools run it more than others, absolutely. However you can probably count on 1 hand the number of schools that use only a pro style offense (No UCLA is not one of them). Last year UCLA finally bit the bullet and went away from their primary pro style offense to incorporate more of the college game. As much as the NFL is adapting to what we see in college currently. College teams that try and stay with the older styles of offense are getting left behind. So when people talk about a pro style offense in college to me while its a sticking point its not the huge sticking point it was 10 years ago. Does the QB have the physical abilities to break down the defense, make smart decisions, and make all the throws. To me Mayfield, Rosen, and Darnold all fit in that category.
For the browns, I have Mayfield firmly as a number 3 choice in this draft just a smidge behind Rosen/Darnold, however all 3 of them i would ultimately be comfortable taking (as long as the browns go with their choice of the best QB out there at number 1, and dont try and get fancy). However the reason I have him below there is I think he is too outside the mold for a large portion of the fan base and another group of fans would just compare him to Manziel. At the end of the day he is easy to hate, and a lot of fans would throw him under the bus at first chance (you already see it on this message board).
Sure, yeah I understand the confusion on how I used this as a potential "knock" on Mayfield despite liking Mayfield overall as a prospect.
Let me explain what I meant, at least.
Traditionally, the difference between "Pro-Style" and "Spread" or "Shotgun Spread" was the size, skillset, and location of the H and Y players. Spread systems tend to split these players wide and replace blocking/receiving threats with smaller pure speed threats. The concept is that it's easier to beat someone in space than it is to get a good block or pin on someone. Especially if your athletes are better than the competition's athletes (college). This usually entails getting the ball out faster on shorter/simpler routes.
Also, it's common to refer to a pro-style as "under center" and a shotgun to have spread-like tendencies. However, this isn't wholly definitive. As you say, we are starting to see more overlapping principles anyway such as more and more shotgun use in the NFL.
So, in a Pro-Style, you likely have a TE and FB (rare) or two TE's with one being a very capable blocker. However, we also see Pro-Style concepts with 3 and 4 WR's. The difference is often that these receivers are asked to run a full route-tree, the quarterback must go through progressions based on what the defense is dictating and diagnose where he wants to go with the football. The progression is often made easier by having 3-5-7 step drops. The drops are about timing. Your deeper routes correspond to a deeper drop from the QB, and vice versa with shorter routes. It's often easier to gain this timing when dropping from under center as throws happen with anticipation before receivers come out of breaks. Specifically, the timing of progression goes with the order of your options based on pre-snap reads. With more disguised coverages and blitz concepts in the NFL, this becomes difficult for a quarterback.
It's easy when you see a team in a Power-I to know what we're looking at. Teams love this at the goal line to get that lead blocker and have your back moving at speed when he receives the football. But, with the game becoming a passing league, it becomes harder to tell the difference. It's blending. In some cases, it seems to be "both."
Additionally, with more blockers on the field in a Pro-Style and shifting defenses, the quarterback often has more responsibility and options with setting protections. Not that a spread QB doesn't have any experience here. It's just more simplified as they are often getting the ball out quickly and the reads come from the sidelines. The spread is just that--they are looking to use misdirection to get the ball to a playmaker quickly where he only has to beat a defender or two.
Why the spread? Well, in college, the running quarterback tends to be a trend. This is where the zone-read came to play. And then the RPO from that. And then so on and so forth. Starting from the shotgun where you can see holes open up and spreading players out to produce lanes makes this more effective.
In the NFL, the defenses are a little faster sideline to sideline. It's more difficult to just spread out and let your athletes beat their athletes consistently. It's certainly done. Just not for the entire duration of a game. Also, we see very few running quarterbacks who do so consistently for long careers. There are effective runners, but not those who run 15-20 times per game. They must pick their spots. Hits add-up and the quarterback is such an important role that coordinators don't want to expose these franchise guys to vicious hits for 8 yard gains.
Likewise, there are also spreads where the QB doesn't have designed runs at all. Mayfield rarely ran, only using his feet to extend plays. It's more about the personnel on the field and what said personnel are responsible for doing.
We do see a good blend nowadays. Carolina runs a lot of college principles. Texans did last year with Watson. Kansas City did last year with Alex Smith. New Orleans employs a lot of spread principles.
It's just when it comes to Mayfield, the speed at which the ball is out of his hands without having to go through progressions is likely less beneficial to the next level. He's seen these concepts less than what someone like Rosen has been exposed to. The same is true with protection packages. He was fantastic at what he was asked to do and I have faith that he can learn. He just has a lot to learn.
Thus, I put him as my 3rd quarterback. He seems to be a quick learner and I like his live arm and accuracy.
